March CET

[Thundery wintry showers]

The thresholds to beat are 5.2 (2001), 4.5 (1996), 4.1 (1987) and 3.7 (1970). I very much doubt it would get below 3.7, but on the off chance that it did, there's 1969 with 2.9.

Incidentally, Cleadon in Tyne & Wear has had six mornings with more than half-cover of snow so far this March, beating the previous record (5 days in 2001) since I started taking records. It is also highly likely that the record for days with snow falling (9 days in 1995) will also be broken by the end of this week. If this keeps up it could be the snowiest March in parts of the North East since 1979.

Newton Aycliffe in Co. Durham had a maximum below 1.6C yesterday, so in nearby Cleadon it might be the lowest March maximum since my records started; we'll have to see at the end of the month.

[Weather-history]

and just for a laugh what do we need to get into the top 10 coldest March's ever?

March 1674 had a CET 1.0

March 1785 had a CET of 1.2 is the more reliable of the two.

The next 18 days need an average of 2.4 for March 2006 to be in the top 10 of coldest Marches

[Stratos Ferric]

The thresholds to beat are 5.2 (2001), 4.5 (1996), 4.1 (1987) and 3.7 (1970). I very much doubt it would get below 3.7, but on the off chance that it did, there's 1969 with 2.9.

Incidentally, Cleadon in Tyne & Wear has had six mornings with more than half-cover of snow so far this March, beating the previous record (5 days in 2001) since I started taking records. It is also highly likely that the record for days with snow falling (9 days in 1995) will also be broken by the end of this week. If this keeps up it could be the snowiest March in parts of the North East since 1979.

Newton Aycliffe in Co. Durham had a maximum below 1.6C yesterday, so in nearby Cleadon it might be the lowest March maximum since my records started; we'll have to see at the end of the month.

I did check my own records last night. In 1979 in North Leeds snow fell on 14 days. Mid month it lay to 12"! Puts yesterday into some kind of perspective.

The other thing that your data illustrate is that whilst we're talking about a cold March by recent standards (see how low temps would have to be to come close to even 1996, which was only 10 years ago), achieving a cold march on this basis would hardly be an outstanding event viewed over the longer term; proof again of how remarkably March, in particular amongst the winter interval months, has warmed.

[Weather-history]

The other thing that your data illustrate is that whilst we're talking about a cold March by recent standards (see how low temps would have to be to come close to even 1996, which was only 10 years ago), achieving a cold march on this basis would hardly be an outstanding event viewed over the longer term; proof again of how remarkably March, in particular amongst the winter interval months, has warmed.

Having said that the first 12 days in Manchester were colder than the first 12 days of March 1987

First 12 days of March for Manchester.

March 1987: 3.0C

March 1996: 5.0C

March 2006: 2.5C

So its the coldest first third of March in Manchester for a number of years

[nick sussex]

March 1674 had a CET 1.0

March 1785 had a CET of 1.2 is the more reliable of the two.

The next 18 days need an average of 2.4 for March 2006 to be in the top 10 of coldest Marches

Thanks for that Mr D.

[Dave J]

Remains at 2.6C today

http://www.climate-uk.com

Now requires a daily mean of 9C over the 14th-31st period to get it up to average, and a 5.9C mean to get it to equal the cold March of 1996.

[kold weather]

12z GFS would probably put a large dent in any chance of having a CEt below 5C...but thats run is ready for the bin because its utter rubbish and a total outlier in terms of what the other models, and to a certain extent its ensembles, expect to occur.

ECMWf on the other hand sustains a reasonably cold flow right out to 240hrs, which I suspect is the correct set-up, so I still find it highly likely that the CEt will stay below 5C for March and quite probably below the 4.8C needed for our first 'very cold'(I believe -1.5C is what needed for the definiation of very cold?) month in a while

[Altostratus]

It really wouldn’t surprise me to see March this year with a CET below 4C. It almost happened in 1987, and looking at the archives, that month didn’t look particularly special. The synoptics shown now are far more impressive.

[kold weather]

It all depends on how long we can hold on to any northerly/easterly. If it can last till the last few days of March then we are in for a real chance of a sub-4c March, though personally I still think about 4-5C range is the most likely outcome for this month assuming a milder breakdown towards the end.

one thing is for sure though now, we won't have a 7C March. Infact just to reach average would now need daily average just under 9c and a mean of roughly 10C now to reach 7C...not going to happen!!!

[Altostratus]

When, the breakdown arrives, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a return to anticyclonic conditions, bringing back coolish continental air. This would help maintain a low CET, thus enhancing the chance of a sub 4C CET. You are probably right though Kold, a CET in the range of 4-5C is probably the more likely outcome at present. It would be so special if we could get that sub 4C CET though.

[Optimus Prime]

ECMWf on the other hand sustains a reasonably cold flow right out to 240hrs, which I suspect is the correct set-up, so I still find it highly likely that the CEt will stay below 5C for March and quite probably below the 4.8C needed for our first 'very cold'(I believe -1.5C is what needed for the definiation of very cold?) month in a while

But you know how strict the BBC/Metoffice are at giving away 'below average' months. According to the BBC/Metoffice the average temperature for England & Wales is 5.7c because they are still using the 61-90 average. It would need to get down to 4.7c to get it in the 'below average category' or 4.4c for it to be in the 'well below average category'.

While I can see it being a cold month, to the BBC/Metoffice old average it'll most likely place itself in the 'near average category'. Last time we had a well below average month was October 2003!! Nearly 3 years ago.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am currently thinking that an outturn in the region of 4.5 to 4.8C is the most likely, taking the average of the model runs (i.e. slack north-easterly flow by Sunday). If the ECMWF came off, then 4.0-4.5C would be a realistic outcome, while the GFS outcome might enable the CET to rise to around 5.5C.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 11.4

Westerly Gales - 7.7 11.4

Catchmydrift - 7.6 11.2

Reef - 7.3 10.7

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 10.4

Mike W - 7.0 10.2

PersianPaladin - 7.0 10.2

Bottesford - 6.7 9.7

Magpie - 6.7 9.7

Peter Tattum - 6.7 9.7

Dave J - 6.6 9.5

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 9.5

Fordy - 6.5 9.3

Great Plum - 6.5 9.3

Roger J Smith - 6.5 9.3

Joneseye - 6.4 9.1

Kold Weather - 6.3 9.0

Mark - 6.3 9.0

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 9.0

The Pit - 6.3 9.0

Evo - 6.2 8.8

Noggin - 6.2 8.8

Rikki - 6.1 8.6

SteveB - 6.1 8.6

Anti-Mild - 6.0 8.5

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 8.3

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 8.1

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 7.6

Thundersquall - 5.5 7.6

Optimus Prime - 5.1 6.9

Shuggee - 4.9 6.6

Snowmaiden - 4.8 6.4

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 6.4

Helly Hanson - 4.6 6.0

Snooz - 4.3 5.5

Tinybill - 4.0 5.0

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.7

Nick Sussex -2.0 1.6

[drfeelgood]

looks like someone has beaten me to the honour of the most ridiculously low forecast...damn! :o

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the GFS run the CET will end up at 3.3c by the 31st. That would make it the coldest since 1962 and the second coldest in 105 years. Or the 27th coldest March since 1667.

[JJB McCabe-deluxe edition]

Going by the GFS run the CET will end up at 3.3c by the 31st. That would make it the coldest since 1962 and the second coldest in 105 years. Or the 27th coldest March since 1667.

How accurate are the figures from as far back as 1667, who was recording these temperatures?

[kold weather]

Hmmm, looks like increasing agreement at least between GEM and GFS for the cold to breakdown by the 25th, allowing for the rest of the period to be much milder, so that may well stop the CET coming out below 4c.

I still think though that something between 4-4.5C is the most likely outcome, but for the next few days a outrun something between 2.5-3.5C mean daily is most likely, so looks like the CEt will stay very much on the cold side.

(ps, OP your right about the beeb, but really I don't care about that technical stuff, if the CEt was below the average of the month, thats good enough for me!)

[Optimus Prime]

How accurate are the figures from as far back as 1667, who was recording these temperatures?

I would presume Hadley. I think Philip would know the answer to that.

In my opinion I don't think they were that accurate. They used generally inaccurate thermometers and apparently they may had been recorded inside houses (obviously people never had Central heating then) I can't say I trust any of the figures before the 1920's roughly as I bet they were fiddled about with and rounded up to the neared decimal place or the Thermometer placed to close to snow cover when it snowed and consequently lowed the readings due to the snow emitting a radiation of cold surface air.

I would say my readings are an awful lot more accurate then them of the olden days but that's my opinion.

[JJB McCabe-deluxe edition]

I would presume Hadley. I think Philip would know the answer to that.

In my opinion I don't think they were that accurate. They used generally inaccurate thermometers and apparently they may had been recorded inside houses (obviously people never had Central heating then) I can't say I trust any of the figures before the 1920's roughly as I bet they were fiddled about with and rounded up to the neared decimal place or the Thermometer placed to close to snow cover when it snowed and consequently lowed the readings due to the snow emitting a radiation of cold surface air.

I would say my readings are an awful lot more accurate then them of the olden days but that's my opinion.

That's what I was thinking, I can't believe they were all that accurate. I suppose they offer a rough guide to what temperatures were but are they reliable enough for a CET comparison with figures recorded today?

[Polar Continental]

Paul and Nick - The CET, at the current rate, is sure going to be something quite amazing. Snow in April anyone :unsure:

Hi SMR,

Thought i would reply in this thread for this one, yes this is quite amazing; i don't know what the official current CET is, but as I said my mean for Burton is running at 2.7c and looks to drop further , this would make it colder than March 1947 and March 63 :huh:

Paul

[Stratos Ferric]

I would presume Hadley. I think Philip would know the answer to that.

In my opinion I don't think they were that accurate. They used generally inaccurate thermometers and apparently they may had been recorded inside houses (obviously people never had Central heating then) I can't say I trust any of the figures before the 1920's roughly as I bet they were fiddled about with and rounded up to the neared decimal place or the Thermometer placed to close to snow cover when it snowed and consequently lowed the readings due to the snow emitting a radiation of cold surface air.

I would say my readings are an awful lot more accurate then them of the olden days but that's my opinion.

OP, I think you can trust the instrumentation further back than 1920: it's a reasonable scientific bet that if they're recording data to a DP precision, the instruments are up to a DP better, and certainly no worse than the recorded precision. I'd also expect that the UKMO standards for measurement go back further too: the victorians at least had high scientific ideals.

What I would agree is that at the start of the CET the values were recorded to only about the nearest degree. That would give a margin for error of up to 0.5C per period - though this CANNOT compound up any higher, and over long series would probably even out (some errors up, some down), so I'd reckon that across a month +/- 0.2C might be bearer the mark, which would mean that winter / annual totals might be +/- the same margin.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi SMR,

Thought i would reply in this thread for this one, yes this is quite amazing; i don't know what the official current CET is, but as I said my mean for Burton is running at 2.7c and looks to drop further :huh: , this would make it colder than March 1947 and March 63 :huh:

Paul

Hi Paul.

As we never seem to get much snow here :unsure: I am quite interested in the CET more so this month. I think its going to be quite an interesting November05 to March06 period.

[Weather-history]

Hi SMR,

, this would make it colder than March 1947 and March 63 :unsure:

Paul

March 1963 wasn't really cold, Paul. It had a CET of 6.0

[Polar Continental]

Hi Paul.

As we never seem to get much snow here :unsure: I am quite interested in the CET more so this month. I think its going to be quite an interesting November05 to March06 period.

Lets hope we do a little better for snow this time mate, as you say if this next cold spell does come off as shown, then we could see a ridiculously low CET, ‘even larger teapot’ :huh:

Paul

[Polar Continental]

March 1963 wasn't really cold, Paul. It had a CET of 6.0 :unsure:

Hi Mr Data,

yes have just been looking at the this Table, although March began cold in 63, it warmed up quite a bit later. I think at this rate and with the current model projections there is a possibility we could see one of the lowest CET's for March this century.

Paul