March CET

[Rollo]

Backing up Paul's Newton Aycliffe stats, I can confirm that this has already been the snowiest March in Cleadon since my weather records began, with 6 days of snow lying (previous highest 5 days in 2001) and 9 days of snow falling (equalling the previous highest in 1995).

In terms of the number of snow-lying days it's been the snowiest of any month there since February 1996, though some subsequent months had larger accumulations.

I won't be getting temperature data for March from Cleadon until the beginning of next month, but there's a good chance of some new records being set.

Hi TWS,In all the years I have followed winter weather it has never occured to me to keep a record of snow lying and falling,I intend to correct that next winter and would be interested to compare what the difference being about 8 miles inland makes.

[paul tall]

Hi TWS,In all the years I have followed winter weather it has never occured to me to keep a record of snow lying and falling,I intend to correct that next winter and would be interested to compare what the difference being about 8 miles inland makes.

I don't bother recording snow falling days as many people do. For a few reasons. One reason is that sometimes it falls in the middle of the night while you're in bed. Or during the day while you are unable to witness it. So unless you sit at home all day looking out of the window for 24 hours, how are you supposed to accurately record it? And recording snow falling if you witness it is a bit of a grey area too. Like does sleet or soft hail count? One snowflake in a rain shower? Or do you just record proper fluffy snow?

I just stick with snow lying at 9am, you can't argue with that, and gives a good idea of how snowy a month has been. Besides, if the snow doesn't settle, whats the point in it? Pointless snow that makes stuff wet, why bother recording that?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some interesting and reasonable points there. Personally, I record days of snow/hail/sleet/thunder for comparison purposes; there will be times when I will miss days of snow/hail/sleet/thunder, due to being asleep or otherwise occupied, but in general I think I catch the vast majority of instances, and my recordings are usually in line with nearby Met Office stations.

The other thing I do is that, if I was busy during a period when it might have snowed/hailed/sleeted/thundered, I ask people what happened on that day. That's how I manage to record such days in Cleadon despite not being there at the time- I use third party information, together with webcams and official reports from nearby, often from N-W.

Recording days of snow/hail/sleet/thunder is always going to be prone to uncertainty- I think this applies to the official climatological stations also. For example when I was at Lancaster University, there were days when I saw snow when the observer didn't, and vice versa, and Hazelrigg is one of the prime Met Office stations. Btw, the Met Office standard procedure is to report days with "snow, or rain and snow".

At the end of the day, it's down to personal choice- it's worth pointing that some Met Office stations don't actually report days of snow falling, for example Durham hasn't done so since 1999.

[Weather-history]

Mean Temperatures for Manchester

Up to the 17th of March

1987: 3.4C

2006: 2.7C

[Terminal Moraine]

An interesting point by Paul Tall regarding observing days with sleet or snow falling, as mentioned by TWS it is all down to the vigilance of the observer.

It was for this reason that the Met' Office graded observing stations into categories A to D so that some comparison could be obtained.

Category A was reserved for places like airports where there was a 24 hour watch on what the weather was doing, or Met' stations such as Eskdalemuir which were manned around the clock.

A really dedicated and vigilant amateur observer might manage a B and D was for climatological stations where the instruments were read once a day and the observer was not always present.

T.M

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 13.7

Westerly Gales - 7.7 13.7

Catchmydrift - 7.6 13.4

Reef - 7.3 12.8

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 12.3

Mike W - 7.0 12.1

PersianPaladin - 7.0 12.1

Bottesford - 6.7 11.4

Magpie - 6.7 11.4

Peter Tattum - 6.7 11.4

Dave J - 6.6 11.2

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 11.2

Fordy - 6.5 11.0

Great Plum - 6.5 11.0

Roger J Smith - 6.5 11.0

Joneseye - 6.4 10.8

Kold Weather - 6.3 10.6

Mark - 6.3 10.6

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 10.6

The Pit - 6.3 10.6

Evo - 6.2 10.3

Noggin - 6.2 10.3

Rikki - 6.1 10.1

SteveB - 6.1 10.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0 9.9

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 9.7

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 9.5

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 8.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 8.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 7.9

Shuggee - 4.9 7.5

Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.2

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.2

Helly Hanson - 4.6 6.8

Snooz - 4.3 6.1

Tinybill - 4.0 5.5

Drfeelgood - 3.8 5.0

Nick Sussex -2.0 1.0

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thanks Mr D.

Just looking at the Net-Weather CET 16 day avg temps, the average temperature for the rest of March is 5.67oC.

This would of course make Tinybill not far off at all, but also, giving an overall March CET of around 4.0oC.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

come on warmer weather i want to be right lol but i think matrch is now going to be sugnificantly below average if my current thoughts hold true....

[johnholmes]

hi

Just a few stats so far from here

My mean temp at the moment is 3.3C

IF GFS is correct this may well end up around 3.6C or 3.7C;

For it to get to the long term average of 5.8C it requires an average over the remaining days of 8.9C, pretty unlikely I think.

The only previous March in the last 10 years to have a value below 6-7C

1995 had 5.3C. There have only been 6 colder Marches than 1995 back to 1976.

They were 1976 and 1975 with 4.9C

1984 and 1980 with 4.7C

1979 at 4.6C

And 1987, the coldest at 4.1C

So ‘cold’ Marches are fairly unusual around here, certainly within the last 10 years.

IF the figures from GFS are anywhere near correct then it will be coldest March by far for 20 years.

Oh well, I may as well look back through the Finningley data to 1942 for Marches below the long term average for this area of 5.8C

And they are

3.1C in 1947, 1955 and 1969

3.3C in 1962

3.7C in 1951 and 1957

4.1C in 1964

4.7C in 1950

4.9C in 1942

So, if it does not exceed 3.6C, it would be the 3rd coldest March ever recorded in this area since 1942.

Looking further at the mean temp for March, if it finishes at 3.7C,

This is the coldest month since January 1997 which had a mean of 2.9C

Now’t so wonderful as statistics,

Remember what, I believe it was Oscar Wilde, who famously said,

‘lies, damn lies, and statistics’ !

John

[noggin]

I quite agree re "lies, damned lies and statistics". So much manipulation is possible to suit whatever purpose is required!

Serious question here....possibly seems silly to some, but what about windchill? The CET is just that....the CET, but it doesn't take account of the wind does it? Nor therefore, how cold it actually feels? It has certainly felt perishing cold here this Winter. Also, there has been little wind coming from the West.

Is there any official measurement and record of wind strength/direction? Is it windier now than it used to be? Do the winds tend to come from a different direction now?

[Weather-history]

Remember what, I believe it was Oscar Wilde, who famously said,

‘lies, damn lies, and statistics’ !

John

Oscar Wilde never said that, John.

It was believed to have been said by Disraeli

Only 7 double digit maxima recorded at Manchester so far in 2006, which is very low and only 11 since 16th of November, thats 11 in the last 122 days.

Edited March 18, 2006 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

I stand corrected Mr D!

interestingly, a quick search on Internet came up with this

http://www1c.btwebworld.com/quote-unquote/p0000149.htm

it seems it may not have been Disraeli according to his biographer. But there again according to what Mark Twain wrote, 'an elder statesman' to whom it was attributed, was Disraeli!!

John

[Paul Sherman]

hi

Just a few stats so far from here

My mean temp at the moment is 3.3C

IF GFS is correct this may well end up around 3.6C or 3.7C;

For it to get to the long term average of 5.8C it requires an average over the remaining days of 8.9C, pretty unlikely I think.

The only previous March in the last 10 years to have a value below 6-7C

1995 had 5.3C. There have only been 6 colder Marches than 1995 back to 1976.

They were 1976 and 1975 with 4.9C

1984 and 1980 with 4.7C

1979 at 4.6C

And 1987, the coldest at 4.1C

So ‘cold’ Marches are fairly unusual around here, certainly within the last 10 years.

IF the figures from GFS are anywhere near correct then it will be coldest March by far for 20 years.

Oh well, I may as well look back through the Finningley data to 1942 for Marches below the long term average for this area of 5.8C

And they are

3.1C in 1947, 1955 and 1969

3.3C in 1962

3.7C in 1951 and 1957

4.1C in 1964

4.7C in 1950

4.9C in 1942

So, if it does not exceed 3.6C, it would be the 3rd coldest March ever recorded in this area since 1942.

Looking further at the mean temp for March, if it finishes at 3.7C,

This is the coldest month since January 1997 which had a mean of 2.9C

Now’t so wonderful as statistics,

Remember what, I believe it was Oscar Wilde, who famously said,

‘lies, damn lies, and statistics’ !

John

Also if you into Pattern Matching, the reading for 1962 & 1957 are interesting as the following Winters were either severly cold or very snowy. Maybe 2006/07 could follow suit.

Paul Sherman

[The PIT]

An interesting point by Paul Tall regarding observing days with sleet or snow falling, as mentioned by TWS it is all down to the vigilance of the observer.

T.M

Yes I recall having an argument with my Father wether it was Snowing or not. He came in from outside grumbling about the rain and I said it was Snowing not Raining and got told off he turned went back out and the world was white. It was dark at the time though but I had the clinching argument. Snow grains are hard to tell and many people would say it's raining when it isn't.

Too early to say what the final CET will be but could be a special month.

[reef]

This really has been a remarkably cold month so far, in my location the maxima would need to be 14.1°C and the minima 7.0°C everyday just to reach average. So far the most below average month Ive recorded is October 2003, which was 1.2°C below average, with March currently running 3.2°C below!

I think its a very positive thing that January - March have been close to average or below average, as post-1988 these months are characteristically the ones to be most above average.

[Guest Mike W]

Also interesting to note is that the record high CET averages on the 71-00 series, March is one of the record high series average at 6.2.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 2.8C, which is 3.5C below average.

The average of the GFS12z ensembles would give a daily CET of around 9.1C from now until the end of the month, which would mean a resulting CET of around 5.6C, which is 0.7C below average however as there is likely to be a inversion from the 24th, i would favor a final CET of around 4.3C, which is 2C below average.

[Guest Mike W]

My CET prediction may need a tiny alteration made to it.

[The PIT]

My CET prediction may need a tiny alteration made to it.

Lol not the only one.

[Optimus Prime]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 2.8C, which is 3.5C below average.

The average of the GFS12z ensembles would give a daily CET of around 9.1C from now until the end of the month,

You've obviously calculated that wrong. That would need daytime maxima around 12c and minima around 6c we won't be getting that for a few days yet. Maxima around 8c and minima around 1c, that equals 4.5c.

Next week there will be a few days with maxima around 6c and minima around -1c so that would give a 24 hour CET of 2.5c.

Due to tnhe cold spell being downgraded somewhat I expect the final CET to come out at 3.9c. There doesn't look to be any real warm spells until the start of April.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 14.3

Westerly Gales - 7.7 14.3

Catchmydrift - 7.6 14.1

Reef - 7.3 13.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 12.9

Mike W - 7.0 12.7

PersianPaladin - 7.0 12.7

Bottesford - 6.7 12.0

Magpie - 6.7 12.0

Peter Tattum - 6.7 12.0

Dave J - 6.6 11.7

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 11.7

Fordy - 6.5 11.5

Great Plum - 6.5 11.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5 11.5

Joneseye - 6.4 11.2

Kold Weather - 6.3 11.0

Mark - 6.3 11.0

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 11.0

The Pit - 6.3 11.0

Evo - 6.2 10.8

Noggin - 6.2 10.8

Rikki - 6.1 10.5

SteveB - 6.1 10.5

Anti-Mild - 6.0 10.3

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 10.1

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 9.8

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 9.1

Thundersquall - 5.5 9.1

Optimus Prime - 5.1 8.2

Shuggee - 4.9 7.7

Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.4

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.4

Helly Hanson - 4.6 7.0

Snooz - 4.3 6.2

Tinybill - 4.0 5.5

Drfeelgood - 3.8 5.0

Nick Sussex -2.0 0.8

Edited March 18, 2006 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

Optimus Prime, i was going by what the average of the ensembles said in relation to the red line, this method does not factor in inversions and is prone to error, i also averaged the daily CET, due to the inversions, the real figure will end up around 4C.

[mackerel sky]

Due to tnhe cold spell being downgraded somewhat I expect the final CET to come out at 3.9c. There doesn't look to be any real warm spells until the start of April.

The cold spell has been upgraded now. And i'm not sure cold spell is the right defination, as its a continuation of cold. Which ever way you want to look at it this March will potentially be the coldest in last three decades at least.

The good news is my lawn doesn't need cutting, it did this time last year. I hate cutting grass.

I must start recording my own figures on paper, or an excel spreadsheet, today we nearly got upto 5C. I reset my wireless effort at the beginnig of March as the batteries needed changing and it keeps the maximum and minimum temperatures recorded. So here in Rushden, at some point we got -4.5C and a maximum of 8.4C this month. Yesterday and thursday we didn't get above 3C.

I need some vitamins from the sun. Please give me them, i'm turning grey. I also need a good wash, irrespective of low rainfall totals. Thankfully Anglia Water aren't going to impose a hosepipe ban on us, which is good news as my fiance can give me my weekly wash with the hosepipe, otherwise I have to go to the garage. Then I need the garden shears to trim my nostril hair. I'm not allowed indoors often. Happy days.

Edited March 19, 2006 by mackerel sky

[johnholmes]

my first 18 days mean temp for March is still at 3.3C, after the last 4 days gave 3.1C, that makes the last 4 days, with only one frost as well, colder than the long term January average!

John

[Terminal Moraine]

The mean temp' here for the first 18 days is 1.1c. This is 3.2c below the 1971-2000 average for the whole of March and, if maintained for the rest of the month, would place this March on a par with that of 1969.

I feel it's unlikely that such a large negative anomaly will survive until the 31st but nevertheless it looks likely to be the coldest March for many years.

T.M