March CET

[kold weather]

Muy only concern for a verey cold CEt is that the last 5 days looks to me to have the chance of having a daily mean at 10-13c, with mild mins being a large problem on the 06z run n FI, a rise of 1c is very possible, even 1.5c in that sort of set-up.

however there is massive disagreement in regard to any breakdown long in the future and there can be few doubts Fs is overplaying zonality in the atlantic once again.

CET should rise up a little again today but only upto 2.8c I worked out today, then it should drop back down to aobut 2.7c exactly tommorow.

I stil lthink something between 4-4.5c and will stick with that now, probably come out at 4.4c I reckon.

[Thundersquall]

The current Net-weather 16-day average temperatures, average out at +4.11c.

If this were the case the CET would rise by less than 1 degree, so could well remain below +4c!

Edited March 15, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 12.2

Westerly Gales - 7.7 12.2

Catchmydrift - 7.6 12.0

Reef - 7.3 11.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 11.0

Mike W - 7.0 10.8

PersianPaladin - 7.0 10.8

Bottesford - 6.7 10.3

Magpie - 6.7 10.3

Peter Tattum - 6.7 10.3

Dave J - 6.6 10.1

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 10.1

Fordy - 6.5 9.9

Great Plum - 6.5 9.9

Roger J Smith - 6.5 9.9

Joneseye - 6.4 9.7

Kold Weather - 6.3 9.5

Mark - 6.3 9.5

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 9.5

The Pit - 6.3 9.5

Evo - 6.2 9.3

Noggin - 6.2 9.3

Rikki - 6.1 9.1

SteveB - 6.1 9.1

Anti-Mild - 6.0 8.9

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 8.7

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 8.5

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 7.9

Thundersquall - 5.5 7.9

Optimus Prime - 5.1 7.2

Shuggee - 4.9 6.8

Snowmaiden - 4.8 6.6

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 6.6

Helly Hanson - 4.6 6.2

Snooz - 4.3 5.6

Tinybill - 4.0 5.1

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.6

Nick Sussex -2.0 1.2

[Guest Mike W]

The 61-90 Spring average is 8.2, 71-00 is 8.5, I was wondering what average temperature we would need to acheive each of those respective values.

[Weather-history]

For Phil's stations

16th November - 15th March averaged 3.8C, 1.1C below the 1971-2000 norm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Muy only concern for a verey cold CEt is that the last 5 days looks to me to have the chance of having a daily mean at 10-13c, with mild mins being a large problem on the 06z run n FI, a rise of 1c is very possible, even 1.5c in that sort of set-up.

however there is massive disagreement in regard to any breakdown long in the future and there can be few doubts Fs is overplaying zonality in the atlantic once again.

CET should rise up a little again today but only upto 2.8c I worked out today, then it should drop back down to aobut 2.7c exactly tommorow.

I stil lthink something between 4-4.5c and will stick with that now, probably come out at 4.4c I reckon.

I think also we must await to see how cold things get first before we concern ourselves re warm spell...indeed the CET could drop further which of course will temper further any warming effect. Mine by the way is 3.2C, although I have a feeling it maybe more towards 4c

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the current GFS run (06Z) the CET will come up at 2.65c by the 31st. That would make it the coldest since 1883.

[summer blizzard]

As the current CET according to Phillip Eden is 2.9C, which is 3.4C below average and the average of the GFS6z ensembles would give a daily CET of 7C from now until the end of the month, the GFS6z would give a monthly CET of 5C, which is 1.4C below average.

Also, the first half of March was the coldest since 1987 however the mid-February to mid-March period was the coldest since 2005, this means that while the second half of February 2005 was colder than the second half of February 2006, the first half of March 2005 was warmer than the first half of March 2006 but not enougth to offset the coldness of the second half of February 2005.

[kold weather]

That would be amazing Op. I'm still very unsure about the CET but one thing that does seem to be on our side, despite the northerly being really downgraded in strength and length, we still have a cold HP cell over us which should keep mins down to about -5c I'd have though, so even maxes at 10c should keep the CET beneath 3C.

After the 22nd and thing become very uncertain. the key is really for a southerly tracking jet, if we can get this and maybe a Lp nearby us then things will get very intresting indeed.

I still favor the outcome to be at roughly 4c, but even this now is very dependant on a warm-up by the 25th which i'm not sure wil leven happen to the extent that is needed.

Seriously though, we might not get a better chance in the next decade for a month to come out at over 2c below average!

(ps, 06z had a southerly tracking CET, would be a very cold CET, probably as Op said down to about 2.6c, stunninly cold though in all likelyhood, the CET will end up 1-2c above that, still nothing to laugh at mind you!!!)

[johnholmes]

As the current CET according to Phillip Eden is 2.9C, which is 3.4C below average and the average of the GFS6z ensembles would give a daily CET of 7C from now until the end of the month, the GFS6z would give a monthly CET of 5C, which is 1.4C below average.

Also, the first half of March was the coldest since 1987 however the mid-February to mid-March period was the coldest since 2005, this means that while the second half of February 2005 was colder than the second half of February 2006, the first half of March 2005 was warmer than the first half of March 2006 but not enougth to offset the coldness of the second half of February 2005.

eeerrmm !!!!

and your conclusion?

[summer blizzard]

eeerrmm !!!!

and your conclusion?

March 2006 will be colder than March 2005.

[Optimus Prime]

(ps, 06z had a southerly tracking CET, would be a very cold CET, probably as Op said down to about 2.6c, stunninly cold though in all likelyhood, the CET will end up 1-2c above that, still nothing to laugh at mind you!!!)

Well I won't be doing anymore CET calculation until the models have plotted the scenario out. One minute it's 2.6c and the next it's 4.0c. Either way I think a colder or much colder then average month is almost certain.

Anything below and not including 3.2c and that would make it the coldest month so far this century which just explians how generalyl mild the months have been. If we get anything below 3c it would be truely remarkable.

[drfeelgood]

Well I won't be doing anymore CET calculation until the models have plotted the scenario out. One minute it's 2.6c and the next it's 4.0c. Either way I think a colder or much colder then average month is almost certain.

Anything below and not including 3.2c and that would make it the coldest month so far this century which just explians how generalyl mild the months have been. If we get anything below 3c it would be truely remarkable.

The figure to beat is 2.8C (1962) - not entirely impossible if we believe what the models are tellings us.

[summer blizzard]

If we get a CET of any less than 3C, i will proclaim the next 1963 style winter.

[Guest Mike W]

We will have to have a cool summer like 62 did aswell, in order to stand in good stead for a 63 or 79 style winter, I think tghe key months always seem to be AUgust and September, specifically last 2 weeks of August and the first 2 weeks of September ideally should be below average/cool and wet weather.

[summer blizzard]

I would not worry about us having a cool summer, just so long as America and Aisa do not have a hot summer, that way the cold pools will be in place by the start of the winter, i personally believe that this summer will be very hot however i also believe that it will feature a lot of easterlies and south easterlies, however one thing of note synoptically will be a trough in western Russia meaning that the heat never reaches Siberia.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It doesn't always work. 1955, 1984, 1990 and 1995 were hot summers; the winters that followed them were rather on the cold side.

[Guest Mike W]

When has North America and Asia had a cool summer while we have a hot summer, becasue I can't think how that would happen, I think we need to have a cool summer, and I did say it would stand in good stead not that it's totally essential, but the most important is a cool-wet end to August and beging of September as this also works. To be honest I'm getting sick of all our summers being above the 61-90 average only 1998 was average to below the 61-90. Don't get me wrong I take the heat on the chin, I should do considering al lthe hot summers we have for the last 18 years and by the looks of things it's not going to stop. Summer beats WInter hands down these days and heat is stronger than cold aswell these days, no SO2 you see, along with Nuclear power, hydrogen fuel, etc, etc. lol

Edited March 16, 2006 by Mike W

[paul tall]

My local figures for March 1st - 16th are....

Air frosts : 11

Days snow lying at 0900 : 6 days

Average Max : 4.4ºC

Average Min : -0.4ºC

Mean Temperature : 2.0ºC

This is 3.6ºC below the March average for Durham (71-00)

Remarkably, no snow was observed lying in either January or February, yet there has already been 6 days in March! Also, both January and February came in at 4.2ºC, so March has a reasonable chance of being colder. That can't happen often can it?

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 12.8

Westerly Gales - 7.7 12.8

Catchmydrift - 7.6 12.6

Reef - 7.3 12.0

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 11.6

Mike W - 7.0 11.4

PersianPaladin - 7.0 11.4

Bottesford - 6.7 10.8

Magpie - 6.7 10.8

Peter Tattum - 6.7 10.8

Dave J - 6.6 10.6

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 10.6

Fordy - 6.5 10.3

Great Plum - 6.5 10.3

Roger J Smith - 6.5 10.3

Joneseye - 6.4 10.1

Kold Weather - 6.3 9.9

Mark - 6.3 9.9

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 9.9

The Pit - 6.3 9.9

Evo - 6.2 9.7

Noggin - 6.2 9.7

Rikki - 6.1 9.5

SteveB - 6.1 9.5

Anti-Mild - 6.0 9.3

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 9.1

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 8.9

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 8.3

Thundersquall - 5.5 8.3

Optimus Prime - 5.1 7.4

Shuggee - 4.9 7.0

Snowmaiden - 4.8 6.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 6.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6 6.4

Snooz - 4.3 5.8

Tinybill - 4.0 5.2

Drfeelgood - 3.8 4.8

Nick Sussex -2.0 1.0

[Joneseye]

I think that someone in the 4-5.5 range is going to end up taking the prize this month.... I am way off the mark :lol:

Edited March 17, 2006 by Joneseye

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I would not worry about us having a cool summer, just so long as America and Aisa do not have a hot summer, that way the cold pools will be in place by the start of the winter, i personally believe that this summer will be very hot however i also believe that it will feature a lot of easterlies and south easterlies, however one thing of note synoptically will be a trough in western Russia meaning that the heat never reaches Siberia.

SB

I think you are right re wind direction as northern blocking will be the pattern IMO. I don't go for the hot summer though...not until August and very warm Sept

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

. To be honest I'm getting sick of all our summers being above the 61-90 average only 1998 was average to below the 61-90.

Mike

Why? 61-90 CET is not the be all and end all.

So the winter quarter 2005-06 (i.e. Dec, Jan, Feb) was:

0.7 degC below the average for the last ten years, 1996-2005

0.3 degC below the average for 1971-2000

0.1 degC above the average for 1961-1990

0.2 degC above the average for 1951-1980

0.4 degC above the average for 1941-1970

0.2 degC above the average for 1931-1960

exactly equal to the average for the 20th century (ie 1901-2000)

0.5 degC above the average for the entire CET record (ie 1659-2005

I know you quote summer but this shows that 40-90 was a cold period and EITHER side are warmer

:lol: :lol:

BFTP

[Guest Mike W]

In fact apart from 1998, all our summers from 1997 onwards have been above the 1971-2000 average aswell, that and the amount of annual CET's with 10.** seems to show very well that Global Dimming is in practical terms finished, it was going down fast post 88 and had finished around March 1997, with only small residual amount left now, so basically Global Dimming is no more, sadly, should have left the SO2 alone, until we dealt with the CO2.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Backing up Paul's Newton Aycliffe stats, I can confirm that this has already been the snowiest March in Cleadon since my weather records began, with 6 days of snow lying (previous highest 5 days in 2001) and 9 days of snow falling (equalling the previous highest in 1995).

In terms of the number of snow-lying days it's been the snowiest of any month there since February 1996, though some subsequent months had larger accumulations.

I won't be getting temperature data for March from Cleadon until the beginning of next month, but there's a good chance of some new records being set.