April CET

[summer blizzard]

I have opened this thread to discuss the CET for April, with March well below average, will April follow the trend or switch back to the relentless above average months.

My CET estimate based upon teleconnection patterns is 9.6C, which is 1.5C above average.

My CET stimate based upon anologues is 8.9C, which is 0.8C above average.

My overall CET estimate based upon both these factors is 9.3C, which is 1.2C above average.

Edited March 25, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Weather-history]

My CET estimate based upon teleconnection patterns is 10.6C, which is 2.5C above average and would be the mildest April in the past 100 years.

That would the warmest April on record with April 1865!

APRIL

....had a CET greater than 10C

1987 10.3

....had a CET greater than 9C

2004 9.4

....had a CET less than 8C

2001 7.7

....had a CET less than 7C

1989 6.6

....had a CET less than 6C

1986 5.8

....had a CET less than 5C

1837 4.7

....was colder than March

1998 Mar 7.9 Apr 7.7

...was colder than February

1903 Feb 7.1 Apr 6.4

....was warmer than May

1987 Apr 10.3 May 10.1

....was colder than the following December

1986 Apr 5.8 Dec 6.2

....was colder than the following November

1994 Apr 8.1 Nov 10.1

....was warmer than the following October

2003 Apr 9.6 Oct 9.3

The longest run of Aprils with a CET >10 is 3

1943 10.5 1944 10.2 1945 10.1

The longest interval between Aprils with a CET >10 is 74+ from 1659 to 1733

There have been 3 instances of 2 consecutive Aprils having a CET <6

1695 5.5; 1696 5.5

1770 5.4; 1771 5.5

1808 5.8; 1809 5.2

The longest interval between Aprils with a CET <6 is 69 years from 1917 to 1986

The longest run of Aprils with a CET <8 is 10 from and including 1671 to 1680

A very rare event, there have been only 4 times that February had a CET higher than the following April

1903 Feb 7.1 Apr 6.4

1790 Feb 6.6 Apr 6.1

1739 Feb 6.8 Apr 6.7

1702 Feb 6.7 Apr 5.8

March having a CET greater than April

1998 Mar 7.9 Apr 7.7

1990 Mar 8.3 Apr 8.0

1989 Mar 7.5 Apr 6.6

1981 Mar 7.9 Apr 7.8

1978 Mar 6.7 Apr 6.5

1957 Mar 9.2 Apr 8.9

1938 Mar 9.1 Apr 7.6

1936 Mar 7.1 Apr 6.3

1903 Mar 7.1 Apr 6.4

1809 Mar 6.0 Apr 5.2

1790 Mar 6.6 Apr 6.4

1780 Mar 7.9 Apr 6.3

1750 Mar 8.2 Apr 7.7

[Methuselah]

After a quick inspection of my cigarette ends, I'm going for 8.1C.

[Optimus Prime]

Cold Aprils have never really occured that often.

I think this April will continue the warm trend but I don't think it'll be that warm overall. I'm going to guess 8.4c, 0.3c above average.

[Weather-history]

Marches below the 1961-90 average by at least 1C followed by an April above the average by at least 1C

1755, 1762, 1783, 1788, 1796, 1800, 1814, 1840, 1865, 1867, 1869, 1937, 1955, 1987

March and April 1865 were remarkable, a March with a CET of 2.9 followed by the warmest April on record with a CET of 10.6

Marches below the 1961-90 average by at least 1C followed by an April below the average by at least 1C

1678, 1682, 1684, 1687, 1688, 1693, 1695, 1696, 1699, 1700, 1701, 1713, 1740, 1742, 1746, 1748, 1754, 1770, 1771, 1772, 1782, 1784, 1793, 1799, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1818, 1829, 1837, 1839, 1887, 1888, 1891, 1908, 1917, 1922, 1924, 1951, 1970

March and April 1837 were remarkable. A March of 2.3 was followed by an April of 4.7

Interesting both extreme Aprils, the warmest and coldest followed notably cold Marches.

Marches below the 1961-90 average by at least 1C followed by an April below the average by at least 1C and then by a cool summer (CET<15c)

1682, 1687, 1688, 1693, 1695, 1696, 1700, 1713, 1740, 1754, 1770, 1771, 1782, 1784, 1799, 1812, 1816, 1829, 1839, 1888, 1891, 1908, 1922, 1924

March <5.7:April >8.0 ---- 0.625

March <5.7:April <8.0 ---- 1.0

So the ratio says that if March is less than 5.7 then there is more chance the following April will be below 8.0

Interestingly though that has only happened twice since 1980 and they were 1986 and 2001

March <4.5: April >8.0 ----- 0.52

March <4.5: April <8.0 ----- 1.00

[Snowly does it]

I will go for a warm one this time around, 8.9

[summer blizzard]

Shuggee - 6.7C

Mr Data - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

Mr Data, i would be intrested to see your CET prediction, as you never seem to make them.

Edited March 25, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, i would be intrested to see your CET prediction, as you never seem to make them.

I'll go for 7.9

[shuggee]

6.7ºC for me...

[SNOW-MAN2006]

i think it will be pretty darned close and i think 8.0 will be my estimate with long watrm days but plenty of frosty nights

[Sunshine]

I'll go for a cold April with a CET of 6.5

[HellyHanson]

I'll go for 7.3C. Cool periods along with some milder ones.

[Metomania]

Marches below the 1961-90 average by at least 1C followed by an April above the average by at least 1C

So the ratio says that if March is less than 5.7

Hello Mr Data (Star Trek right?!). I am a bit confused. Your data refers to March means of 1C or more below the CET on the older 1961-90 scale, and you then refer to 'if March is less than 5.7'. But surely the 1961-90 Hadley CET is 5.7C. Don't you mean, if the figure is below 4.7C?

The way the March figure has risen today makes the high 4's very likely, and into the 5's quite possible. It will still be a below average month barring some really bizarre temperatures. Will it be the coldest March since 1996 (4.5C) or 'only' since 2001 (5.2C)? Does it matter?! And does that have any bearing on April? Probably not! I may have some fun and join this game with a guess for April in a bit when I've studied some LRFs. The safest thing is probably not to try and estimate it!

with March well below average

It might be best to hold the 'well below' tag until the month has actually finished? It may not be well below, but rather 'below'.

Edited March 25, 2006 by Metomania

[drfeelgood]

To continue with the cold theme, I'll go for 6.4 :blush:

[kold weather]

Well I'll go for a CET to be a good 0.8c above average (71-00), I think this month will see the revenge of the westerlies if I'm honest!!!

8.9c!

[Weather-history]

Hello Mr Data (Star Trek right?!). I am a bit confused. Your data refers to March means of 1C or more below the CET on the older 1961-90 scale, and you then refer to 'if March is less than 5.7'. But surely the 1961-90 Hadley CET is 5.7C. Don't you mean, if the figure is below 4.7C?

No, I did this analyse on The WeatherOutlook forum and those were two separate posts that I made. I cut and paste both and put under one post on net-weather , although I should have made the ratio part of the post a little clearer. :blush:

[Glacier Point]

I'm going for a strongly -ve NAO month with alternating SW'ly and N'ly flow giving a marginally below average month at 7.9. Watch out for the snow showers and frosts late month to bring the prediction home !

GP

[A Gower Guy]

I'm going to go for 9.9°c

[bartlett_hi]

Interesting guesses so far..my guess is going in at 8.6C on a fairly random basis - I think it's unlikely we will see another month below average CET wise and we are due a pretty good zonal spell with maybe a couple of cooler northerly incursions in between so i'm guessing a slightly above average month may result..It's nice to have some milder weather to enojoy at the moment anyhow- i'd forgotten what temps above 10C felt like of late

cheers,

Steve

http://www.cyclone-tours.com - storm chasing tours in tornado alley 2006 and 2007 - check out the photos!

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood - 6.4C

Sunshine 6.5C

Shuggee - 6.7C

Helly Hanson - 7.3C

Mr Data - 7.9C

Glacier Point - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

bartlett_hi - 8.6C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Kold Weather - 8.9C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

button-wales - 9.9C

Believe it or not but a above average April good be good news for the coming winter because in my study of the preceeding years of the ten coldest winters in the past century i found that April was the only month in which the majority was above average.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well. I've just looked at the METO LRF Here

To my untrained eye, there seems to be a continuation of the winter pattern going into the summer. Scotland being above average, and the s/e likely to see a below average few months. More northern blocking?

The atlantic warmth doesnt seem to make it over the UK, and into Europe. In fact, most of Europe seems to remain below average going into the summer.

Marchs outlook however, should be released soon, and will see if this pattern continues.

Based on recent trends, and the METO outlook, i'm going to go for an April CET of 7.8oC.

[Rollo]

I am going for around the average-- 8.3c.

[Terminal Moraine]

I think there'll be a sustained spell of N/NW winds during mid to late April so I'll go for 7.7c.

T.M

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This April will be above average but it won't be a scorcher. My CET is 8.7C and if the blocking resets itself after the first week with an initial pretty cool blast I think we will get HP very close to us to bring pleasant warm days and cool nights.

BFTP 8.7C

[Summer of 95]

In recent years cold Aprils have tended to follow very mild Februaries, irrespective of what March had; since 1986 (the last time they were both cold) out of 7 Aprils with CET (Hadley) at <8.0C, only in 2 (1991, 2001) has it not followed a February >5.5C.

March in the recent past shows very little correlation with April; I can remember the huge difference between March and April 1987 while ten years later a similar April followed a March that could not have been more unlike that of 1987. The similarity between these two years was instead the cold January.

All the years mentioned so far though had at least one month between Jan-Mar either substantially below or substantially above average; 1986 and 1991 had cold Februaries and 2001 a cold March. Looking back those 3 consecutive warm Aprils 1943-5 actually did not generally follow the cold winters we tend to associate with the 40s; only Jan 1945 was cold in that time however Jan-Feb that year showed a remarkable turnaround, 0.4C to 7.1C, an even bigger change than Mar-Apr 1987!

The warm April 1949 followed a winter when all 3 months were 5.5C or more, however March was only 5.1! An even more striking year with a warm April was 1869: a remarkable year with March 1.8C colder than January and a whopping 3.7C colder than February, and if that wasn't enough it was 6.3C colder than April. Four years earlier we had March only just warmer than Jan and Feb, however all 3 were below 3C whilst April was 10.6! It is this phenomenon with March coming close to being, or actually being, the coldest month of the winter which seems to give a lot of warm Aprils. 1796 seems to have been another example. This year even with the recent mild spell March looks like being barely warmer than Dec, Jan or Feb, so I'll go for a warm one:

My prediction:

April 2006 CET 10.1C