April CET

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.6

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.3

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.3

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.4

Connor123: 6.6C 6.6

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.7

Snowprincess: 6.9C 7.0

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.3

Rikki: 7.2C 7.4

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.6

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.6

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.8

Noggin: 7.5C 7.8

Matty M: 7.5C 7.8

Joneseye: 7.6C 8.0

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 8.1

Evo: 7.7C 8.1

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.2

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.4

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.4

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.5

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.6

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.6

Foggy: 8.2C 8.8

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.8

Rollo: 8.3C 8.9

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.1

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.1

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.1

Supercell: 8.4C 9.1

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.2

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.3

Blast from the past: 8.7C 9.5

Reef: 8.8C 9.6

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 9.7

Kold Weather: 8.9C 9.7

SteveB: 8.9C 9.7

stricklands: 8.9C 9.7

Bottesford: 9C 9.9

The PIT: 9C 9.9

Metomania: 9.1C 9.7

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 10.0

phil n.warks: 9.6C 10.7

button-wales: 9.9C 11.1

Summer of 95: 10.1C 11.4

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 11.5

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.7

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.4

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.4

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.5

Connor123: 6.6C 6.7

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.8

Snowprincess: 6.9C 7.1

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.4

Rikki: 7.2C 7.5

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.7

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.7

Great Plum: 7.5C 8.0

Noggin: 7.5C 8.0

Matty M: 7.5C 8.0

Joneseye: 7.6C 8.1

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 8.3

Evo: 7.7C 8.3

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.4

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.6

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.6

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.7

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.8

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.8

Foggy: 8.2C 9.0

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 9.0

Rollo: 8.3C 9.1

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.3

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.3

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.3

Supercell: 8.4C 9.3

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.4

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.6

Blast from the past: 8.7C 9.7

Reef: 8.8C 9.8

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 10.0

Kold Weather: 8.9C 10.0

SteveB: 8.9C 10.0

stricklands: 8.9C 10.0

Bottesford: 9C 10.1

The PIT: 9C 10.1

Metomania: 9.1C 10.3

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 10.6

phil n.warks: 9.6C 11.0

button-wales: 9.9C 11.4

Summer of 95: 10.1C 11.7

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 11.8

[Weather-history]

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

CET: (Apr 1- 9): 6.4°C (-1.1 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1- 9): 16.5mm ( 88 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1- 9): 72/0hr (169 per cent)

Spring 2006 up to the 9th of April: 5.3C (1.3C below the 1971-2000 norm for Phil's stations)

The period 16th November-9th April: 4.3C (1.0C below the 1971-2000 norm for Phil's stations)

[SNOW-MAN2006]

according to metcheck the current c.e.t is:

6.1 celcius

SNOW-MAN2006

[summer blizzard]

While i am not going to ramp to the degree that i did in early March, i would like to know what the record sunshine total in April is because we already have around half of the monthly sunshine total and the charts do not look particulaly cloudy.

As the CET is 6.4C according to Phillip Eden, which is 1.7C below average, the GFS6z ensemble average would give a CET around 5.5C by the 26th April. The GFS6z operational run would produce a CET around 8C by the 26th April.

[Weather-history]

While i am not going to ramp to the degree that i did in early March, i would like to know what the record sunshine total in April is because we already have around half of the monthly sunshine total and the charts do not look particulaly cloudy.

April 1984 had an England and Wales sunshine total of 217.5hrs and is the highest value in the series since 1929. Got a feeling April 1893 maybe up there

[summer blizzard]

While i doubt we will get that much sunshine, we may just get 200 hors of sunshine.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

With third of the month gone the 9s and 10s are starting to look a little high ... seems the cool period is continuing from March.

Edited April 11, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Metomania]

With third of the month gone the 9s and 10s are starting to look a little high ... seems the cool period is continuing from March.

It is too early to make a statement like that. We are now set for a week of mild conditions, and without air frosts likely the mean will rise fast. The final 10 days will decide the month, and at this stage it looks warm so an above average month is very much still on.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.8

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.6

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.6

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.7

Connor123: 6.6C 6.9

Shuggee: 6.7C 7.0

Snowprincess: 6.9C 7.1

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.3

Rikki: 7.2C 7.8

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.9

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.9

Great Plum: 7.5C 8.2

Noggin: 7.5C 8.2

Matty M: 7.5C 8.2

Joneseye: 7.6C 8.4

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 8.5

Evo: 7.7C 8.5

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.7

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.8

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.8

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 9.0

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 9.1

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 9.1

Foggy: 8.2C 9.3

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 9.3

Rollo: 8.3C 9.4

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.6

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.6

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.6

Supercell: 8.4C 9.6

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.7

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.9

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.0

Reef: 8.8C 10.2

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 10.3

Kold Weather: 8.9C 10.3

SteveB: 8.9C 10.3

stricklands: 8.9C 10.3

Bottesford: 9C 10.5

The PIT: 9C 10.5

Metomania: 9.1C 10.6

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 10.9

phil n.warks: 9.6C 11.4

button-wales: 9.9C 11.8

Summer of 95: 10.1C 12.1

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 12.3

[Terminal Moraine]

April 1984 had an England and Wales sunshine total of 217.5hrs and is the highest value in the series since 1929. Got a feeling April 1893 maybe up there

1909 was also a very sunny April. On the record at Buxton, Derbyshire, it was the sunniest April since the record began in 1886, with 238.7 hrs. 1893 was second with 228.0hrs. The record for April 1984 is missing as, unfortunately, the recorder had been stolen but a station fairly nearby whose records show similar totals over a lengthy period recorded 221.0hrs, which would make it the 3rd sunniest on record.

T.M

[Matty M]

I think its quite a remarkable turn for the books when one considers we have had 4/5 of the last months below average and some

quite abit. After having such a long spell of months all above average one was really questioning what was going on.

As we sit ten days in April @ -1.1c below the April CET, we have another good chance to record and average or possibly

slight below month once more

[Metomania]

I think its quite a remarkable turn for the books when one considers we have had 4/5 of the last months below average and some

quite abit. After having such a long spell of months all above average one was really questioning what was going on.

As we sit ten days in April @ -1.1c below the April CET, we have another good chance to record and average or possibly

slight below month once more

It has indeed been very interesting to see the record breaking run of mild months broken, but I think we need to be a bit careful about hyperbole here. In that sequence stretching back a year and a half, some months were actually very close to being average e.g. February 2005 at 4.3C was statistically average; May 2005 was average against the last 100 years; August 2005 was average to the 1971-2000 mean; whilst October 2004 was actually below the 1961-1990 average so the sequence on that scale was never 18 months anyway.

The last 5 months have been interesting as I say, but none of them has fallen into the 'well below' average category (the correct metereological term I believe rather than 'a fair bit' ) except March 2006 against the 1971-2000 mean (but not the other two means). 3 of the 5 months are indisputably statistically below average (but not well below), with February below against two means but not the other. We need to bear in mind too that neither February nor March have been published by the Meto Hadley department as yet, not that there will be any doubt that March will come in below.

November 2005:

6.2C which is 0.3C below the 1961-1990 average; 0.7C below the 1971-200 average; 0.3C below the 100yr rolling

December 2005:

4.4C which is 0.2C below the 1961-1990; 0.8C below 1971-2000; 0.3C below 1906-2005

January 2006:

4.3C which is 0.5C above the 1961-1990; 0.1C above the 1971-2000; 0.4C above 1906-2005

February 2006

3.8C which is the same as the 1961-1990; 0.4C below the 1971-2000; 0.1C below the 1906-2005

March 2006:

5.0C which is 0.7C below the 1961-1990; 1.3C below the 1971-2000; 0.9C below the 1906-2005

Overall winter 2005/6:

12.5C which is:

0.3C above the 1961-1990 average (12.2C)

1C below the 1971-2000 average (13.5C)

0.2C below the 100 yr rolling 1906-2005 average (12.7C)

As for April ... expect a significant rise in the CET over the next week or so. It obviously statistically rises as the month progresses because the thermal gradient is so much steeper as the month passes, and the synoptics are lined up for a rise of some proportion now. For April to come in below average will need a really cold spell after the next week of westerlies. Ironically it is settled high pressure that can help peg it back because notwithstanding the warm days, at this time of year sharp frosts are still very possible and these can really knock the CET down. For the next week minimum temperatures are likely to be high, and this will cause the steep CET rise.

Edited April 11, 2006 by Metomania

[Thundery wintry showers]

1909 was also a very sunny April. On the record at Buxton, Derbyshire, it was the sunniest April since the record began in 1886, with 238.7 hrs. 1893 was second with 228.0hrs. The record for April 1984 is missing as, unfortunately, the recorder had been stolen but a station fairly nearby whose records show similar totals over a lengthy period recorded 221.0hrs, which would make it the 3rd sunniest on record.

T.M

April 1990 would also appear to have been exceptionally sunny in places- at Durham there was some 217 hours of sunshine, as compared with the long-term average of about 135 hours. The month was one of those oddities that was dry and sunny, yet variable at the same time.

[Terminal Moraine]

April 1990 would also appear to have been exceptionally sunny in places- at Durham there was some 217 hours of sunshine, as compared with the long-term average of about 135 hours. The month was one of those oddities that was dry and sunny, yet variable at the same time.

April 1990 was very sunny in this area too with 182 hours, at the time it was the sunniest at Buxton since 1914 which had 209.5 hrs. Since 1990 only 2003 has exceeded it, recording 193.6 hrs.

T.M

[Guest Mike W]

Thats the third time I've seen someone say 3.8 for February yet the only site that has February is Phillip Eden's and he has 3.9 for it, Hadley haven't relesed their's yet, until then I wouldn't put 3.8 on it yet, unless you know something we don't of course and I don't mean that in a rude way.

[summer blizzard]

I think that people are refering to the figure for England and Wales.

[Guest Mike W]

But the E&W figure for February is 3.6 and March is 4.6 on the E&W series.

[Metomania]

Thats the third time I've seen someone say 3.8 for February yet the only site that has February is Phillip Eden's and he has 3.9 for it, Hadley haven't relesed their's yet, until then I wouldn't put 3.8 on it yet, unless you know something we don't of course and I don't mean that in a rude way.

No I put a sentence saying that we don't know the Hadley figure for February yet, and that caution was needed on that front.

However, the 3.8C is based on Philip Eden calculating the Hadley figure. He not only gets their info but knows the method they use for adjustment so he can normally tell us what the Hadley figure will be. For February he reckons 3.8C and for March 5C.

[Roger J Smith]

From the GFS I would estimate the (partial) April CET will rise to around 8.5 by the Easter weekend and then edge up through the 9-10 range towards the end of the month. Given the chance, I would stay with 10.2 for now. While FI may be unreliable, the error could go either way and if it went positive, you'd be looking at record warmth at times later this month.

[Glacier Point]

With TWO's CET currently at 5.42 and Metcheck 6.1, the first third of the month has been well below average, on a par with the coolest Aprils in the last 60 years.

Another northerly looks a distinct possibility next week, whilst I see the factors leading to more high latitude blocking to increase in probability as we approach the last third of the month and into May.

March's NAO was -1.4, and if anything April could be more negative. So perhaps we could see one of if not the coldest April in the last 60 years ?

GP

[Weather-history]

.

March's NAO was -1.4, and if anything April could be more negative. So perhaps we could see one of if not the coldest April in the last 60 years ?

GP

The coldest April in the last 60 years was 1986 with a CET of 5.8, the last really cool April was 1989 with a CET of 6.6

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.8

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.6

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.6

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.7

Connor123: 6.6C 6.9

Shuggee: 6.7C 7.0

Snowprincess: 6.9C 7.4

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.7

Rikki: 7.2C 7.8

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 8.0

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 8.0

Great Plum: 7.5C 8.3

Noggin: 7.5C 8.3

Matty M: 7.5C 8.3

Joneseye: 7.6C 8.5

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 8.6

Evo: 7.7C 8.6

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.8

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.9

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.9

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 9.1

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 9.3

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 9.3

Foggy: 8.2C 9.4

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 9.4

Rollo: 8.3C 9.6

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.7

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.7

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.7

Supercell: 8.4C 9.7

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.9

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 10.0

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.2

Reef: 8.8C 10.4

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 10.5

Kold Weather: 8.9C 10.5

SteveB: 8.9C 10.5

stricklands: 8.9C 10.5

Bottesford: 9C 10.7

The PIT: 9C 10.7

Metomania: 9.1C 10.8

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 11.2

phil n.warks: 9.6C 11.6

button-wales: 9.9C 12.1

Summer of 95: 10.1C 12.4

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 12.6

[Metomania]

So perhaps we could see one of if not the coldest April in the last 60 years ?

GP

Is it only 4 weeks since people were saying the same thing about March?! Unlike March, I can't see an awful lot to support such an assertion. Even the cool-looking 0z and 6z runs need to be taken with a lot of caution because there is considerable scatter with control on the cold side. The likelihood of the CET being back up to near average by the end of the Easter weekend is, as Roger points out, still considerable. Much will therefore depend on the final week of the month - a week which statistically is less likely to be as cold as the first week of the month. Somewhere in the range 7.5C to 10C looks likeliest from this point, but there is very little at this stage to justify comments about coldest in last 60 years.

With TWO's CET currently at 5.42

I don't incidentally usually like criticising other forecast sites, but the TWO CET is beyond a joke. They seem to adjust their figure in the most arbitrary manner, and the result is consistently the most inconsistent "CET" in the business, which bears no relation at all to the official Hadley CET, nor to that of Philip Eden. The fact that they even dare to call it 'CET' adds insult to injury ....

[Weather-history]

The likelihood of the CET being back up to near average by the end of the Easter weekend is, as Roger points out, still considerable.

For it to get 8.5 by the end of the Easter weekend as Roger intimated, it would need a daily CET mean of 12.9C, I got to say it doesn't seem that likely especially if the nights are not especially mild.