April CET

[acbrixton]

Bear in mind the majority of the last 15 years have seen well above average Aprils. Reaching temperatures upwards of 21°C in April might be the 'norm' now, but in longer terms it is very much a less common thing. However, my argument still stands here, the complaints that surface when an April doesnt reach 20°C are totally unjustified. As I said in the other thread, although next to impossible, if every day was 14°C and every night 6°C, there would be many complaints about a cool month, despite the fact that the month would have a CET of 10°C.

At the end of the day its just a case of overexpectations, possibly influenced by the warm years post-1988. The same would happen in July if everyday was 22°C. It is 'expected' to reach 30+°C without question there too, despite being 8+°C above average.

Well I appreciate the points made but I'm not sure that to expect a maximum of 21c on one day in April is at all unreasonable...we need Mr Data to ajudicate here (where the hell is he when is most needed?)

Regards

ACB

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Meto

R u WIB renamed?

BFTP

[TEITS]

Well I appreciate the points made but I'm not sure that to expect a maximum of 21c on one day in April is at all unreasonable...we need Mr Data to ajudicate here (where the hell is he when is most needed?)

Regards

ACB

Back in 1955,1952 25C was reached in a few locations. If we look at the CET in the past in 1943 was 10.5C and in 1944 10.2C, 1945 10.1C, 1949 10.0C , 1961 10.0C.

What is noticeable when looking in the past is how although the CET has risen in our winter months in our Spring/Autumn months the CET has hardly changed at all.

[Weather-history]

Well I appreciate the points made but I'm not sure that to expect a maximum of 21c on one day in April is at all unreasonable...we need Mr Data to ajudicate here (where the hell is he when is most needed?)

Regards

ACB

Its not unreasonable for it at least one station in the UK to record 21C during the month of April. Manchester has broken the 21C barrier during 7 Aprils since 1981.

Back in 1893, here were some of the April maxima recorded during that month.

19th April 1893: 25.6

20th April 1893: 28.9

21st April 1893: 28.1

23rd April 1893: 26.1

24th April 1893: 27.8

25th April 1893: 27.8

Edited April 22, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Metomania]

The Met Office have released both the February CET and the March CET. You can see the Hadley figures on their site, here:

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt

February is officially 3.7C and March is officially 4.9C.

(By the way, I agree that it's not unreasonable for a 20C, or even a 21C, to be reached in April but the best test of the month's temperature remains the average temperature, rather than freak warm or freak cold. Those are never good indicators. This was the very point The Eye was making.)

Edit - Blast, what is "WIB"?

Edited April 22, 2006 by Metomania

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 2.3

drfeelgood: 6.4C 3.6

Steve Murr: 6.4C 3.6

Sunshine: 6.5C 3.9

Connor123: 6.6C 4.2

Shuggee: 6.7C 4.5

Snowprincess: 6.9C 5.1

Ragnarok: 7.1C 5.7

Rikki: 7.2C 6.0

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 6.3

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 6.3

Great Plum: 7.5C 6.9

Noggin: 7.5C 6.9

Matty M: 7.5C 6.9

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.2

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.5

Evo: 7.7C 7.5

ChrisL: 7.8C 7.8

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.1

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.1

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.4

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.7

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.7

Foggy: 8.2C 9.0

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 9.0

Rollo: 8.3C 9.3

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.6

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.6

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.6

Supercell: 8.4C 9.6

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.9

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 10.2

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.5

Reef: 8.8C 10.8

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 11.1

Kold Weather: 8.9C 11.1

SteveB: 8.9C 11.1

stricklands: 8.9C 11.1

Bottesford: 9C 11.4

The PIT: 9C 11.4

Metomania: 9.1C 11.7

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 12.3

phil n.warks: 9.6C 13.2

button-wales: 9.9C 14.1

Summer of 95: 10.1C 14.7

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 15.0

[acbrixton]

The Met Office have released both the February CET and the March CET. You can see the Hadley figures on their site, here:

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt

February is officially 3.7C and March is officially 4.9C.

(By the way, I agree that it's not unreasonable for a 20C, or even a 21C, to be reached in April but the best test of the month's temperature remains the average temperature, rather than freak warm or freak cold. Those are never good indicators. This was the very point The Eye was making.)

Edit - Blast, what is "WIB"?

Metomania I quite agree with your point re avge temps...I was only making a rather smaller point!

CETs are rather lower than we all thought...as these arre now "official" can we take it that there will be no adjustments?

WIB or West is Best was a controversial knowledgeable amateur on this site until banned. A noted scourge of the "mild rampers" and a stickler for logical argument/empirical evidence. His downfall was a certain acerbic tone and on occasion a tendency to dig himself into a trench and defend a position that was no longer as strong as it once was.

Regards

ACB

Its not unreasonable for it at least one station in the UK to record 21C during the month of April. Manchester has broken the 21C barrier during 7 Aprils since 1981.

Mr Data many thanks for that.

Regards

ACB

[summer blizzard]

As the averaged daily CET from now until the end of the month may be around 10.4C, which is 2.3C above average, the final CET may be in the region of 8.7C, which is 0.6C above average.

[Metomania]

The CET is lifting briskly now. With it currently at 8.25 something above 8.8C looks likely. If it does attain 8.9C it will be the equal 9th warmest April in the last 40 years. What's amazing about that statistic though is that 6 of them have been in the last 10 years.

[TEITS]

The CET is lifting briskly now. With it currently at 8.25 something above 8.8C looks likely. If it does attain 8.9C it will be the equal 9th warmest April in the last 40 years. What's amazing about that statistic though is that 6 of them have been in the last 10 years.

I can't find anything remarkable in those stats.

Look back at the decade of the 1940's where the CET was far higher.

1942 9.2, 1943 10.5, 1944 10.2, 1945 10.1, 1946 9.9, 1948 9.0, 1949 10.0

[Metomania]

I can't find anything remarkable in those stats.

You wouldn't. A little cold-biased I think Nevertheless, the 1940's also had a string of warm Aprils which was equally remarkable. (Though you neatly side-stepped the 6.4C in 1941 I notice!!!!)

Personally I'm delighted to be getting back to above average months, although GW worries me greatly.

Edited April 23, 2006 by Metomania

[Weather-history]

You wouldn't. A little cold-biased I think Nevertheless, the 1940's also had a string of warm Aprils which was equally remarkable.

The Aprils of the 1940s were remarkable more remarkable than the recent run of Aprils. 3 consecutive Aprils with a CET of 10 or greater. There have only been 17 Aprils with a double digit CET and 4 of them occurred in the 1940s with 1946 just missing out.

The decadal CET average for April during the 1940s was 9.3 compared to 8.6 for the decadal average for the 1990s.

The current April average for the 2000s is 8.8

Perhaps even more remarkable were the Aprils of the 1790s where the Aprils tend to alternate between the well above average and the below average

Aprils of the 1790s

1790: 6.1

1791: 9.6

1792: 10.0

1793: 6.2

1794: 10.2

1795: 7.7

1796: 10.2

1797: 7.4

1798: 10.4

1799: 5.4

The Aprils of 1862 to 1872 inclusive didn't have a single April below 8C, thats 11 consecutive Aprils and probably the longest period of consecutive Aprils with a CET of 8 or greater. Extend the period from April 1862 to April 1875 inclusive there was only one sub 8C April and that was April 1873 with a CET of 7.7 Thats 12 out of those 13 Aprils having a CET of 8 or greater.

Edited April 23, 2006 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

Accorting to Phillip Eden, the current CET may be 8C, which is 0.1C below average, we also have 35.8mm of rainfall and 130.7 hours of sunshine.

[Metomania]

Accorting to Phillip Eden, the current CET may be 8C, which is 0.1C below average, we also have 35.8mm of rainfall and 130.7 hours of sunshine.

Going on the graphs, rather than his frontpage which isn't updated since 15th, and up to yesterday?

http://www.climate-uk.com/

I'd await his return before we can be sure.

Going through some figures based on the 6z run I'd say we should get a figure above 8.8C on the NW tracker - perhaps over 9C is not out of the question. A lot will depend on these maximum temperatures. If the cloud lifts and we see the sort of projected figures then anything up to 9.4 is possible really. I'd reckon between 8.8C and 9.2C looks probably about right from here ... but that's on the NW tracker, which has been very accurate since I joined.

Edited April 23, 2006 by Metomania

[Metomania]

I can't find anything remarkable in those stats.

By the way, just to pick up on one point: not to find anything remarkable in the fact that six of the nine warmest Aprils of the past 40 years have been in the last ten years is itself fairly remarkable. To go 30 years and have 3 of the warmest, and then go 10 years and have 6 of them would be 'noteworthy'.

[MP-R]

Despite a very cool start to the month, I have so far got an average temperature for April as being 11.1C. Last April it was 11.7C and in 2004 it was slightly higher at 11.8C. April 2004 though was mostly mild throughout, especially between the 22nd and 27th. I remember sunbathing that weekend followed by some cracking thunderstorms on the 26th.

2005 was changeable but still managed 11.7C which is soundly respectable for April.

Considering March this year was cold with a monthly average of only 6.2C, April has sparked temperature-wise. Let's hope May will herald more warm weather.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C -1.5

drfeelgood: 6.4C 0.7

Steve Murr: 6.4C 0.7

Sunshine: 6.5C 1.1

Connor123: 6.6C 1.5

Shuggee: 6.7C 1.9

Snowprincess: 6.9C 2.8

Ragnarok: 7.1C 3.7

Rikki: 7.2C 4.1

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 4.5

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 4.5

Great Plum: 7.5C 5.4

Noggin: 7.5C 5.4

Matty M: 7.5C 5.4

Joneseye: 7.6C 5.8

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 6.2

Evo: 7.7C 6.2

ChrisL: 7.8C 6.7

Mr Data: 7.9C 7.1

Glacier Point: 7.9C 7.1

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 7.5

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 7.9

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 7.9

Foggy: 8.2C 8.4

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.4

Rollo: 8.3C 8.8

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.2

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.2

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.2

Supercell: 8.4C 9.2

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.7

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 10.1

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.5

Reef: 8.8C 10.9

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 11.4

Kold Weather: 8.9C 11.4

SteveB: 8.9C 11.4

stricklands: 8.9C 11.4

Bottesford: 9C 11.8

The PIT: 9C 11.8

Metomania: 9.1C 12.2

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 13.1

phil n.warks: 9.6C 14.4

button-wales: 9.9C 15.7

Summer of 95: 10.1C 16.5

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 16.9

[Methuselah]

Thanks Mr D...It's above average now, I see... :lol:

[West is Best]

Thanks Mr D...It's above average now, I see... :lol:

Really chugging up slowly though Peter on the NW tracker. It's been a long slow haul through this month. The low cloud and fog around is not exactly enabling a fast rise.

By the way ... my guess for the month was 9.1C ... but I'm beginning to be doubtful it'll reach that high.

(Edit, now I'm properly back we can talk Spurs again. Brilliant last 2 performances 'eh? Fantastic against Arsenal. 4th spot ours ...?!)

Edited April 24, 2006 by West is Best

[Methuselah]

Really chugging up slowly though Peter on the NW tracker. It's been a long slow haul through this month. The low cloud and fog around is not exactly enabling a fast rise.

By the way ... my guess for the month was 9.1C ... but I'm beginning to be doubtful it'll reach that high.

(Edit, now I'm properly back we can talk Spurs again. Brilliant last 2 performances 'eh? Fantastic against Arsenal. 4th spot ours ...?!)

Mine was 8.1, and I think that it'll turn out too low...8.8 to 8.9C, anybody??? :lol:

Spurs talk could be good next week - only six points required!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

FWIW I make the mean of everyone 8.09C.

(That's 372.19 / 46 if you want to double-check).

I think last month's group mean was about 1C above the actual CET. This month we look like over-compensating on the cold side, mean being 1 C below!

(There was a British scientist who said if a group guessed the number of sweets in a jar the group mean would be more accurate than individuals - who was that? I'd be cool if it worked with CET too, although not looking likely ATM!)

Edited April 24, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C -3.3

drfeelgood: 6.4C -0.8

Steve Murr: 6.4C -0.8

Sunshine: 6.5C -0.3

Connor123: 6.6C 0.2

Shuggee: 6.7C 0.7

Snowprincess: 6.9C 1.7

Ragnarok: 7.1C 2.7

Rikki: 7.2C 3.2

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 3.7

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 3.7

Great Plum: 7.5C 4.7

Noggin: 7.5C 4.7

Matty M: 7.5C 4.7

Joneseye: 7.6C 5.2

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 5.7

Evo: 7.7C 5.7

ChrisL: 7.8C 6.2

Mr Data: 7.9C 6.7

Glacier Point: 7.9C 6.7

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 7.2

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 7.7

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 7.7

Foggy: 8.2C 8.2

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.2

Rollo: 8.3C 8.7

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.2

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.2

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.2

Supercell: 8.4C 9.2

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.7

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 10.2

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.7

Reef: 8.8C 11.2

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 11.7

Kold Weather: 8.9C 11.7

SteveB: 8.9C 11.7

stricklands: 8.9C 11.7

Bottesford: 9C 12.2

The PIT: 9C 12.2

Metomania: 9.1C 12.7

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 13.7

phil n.warks: 9.6C 15.2

button-wales: 9.9C 16.7

Summer of 95: 10.1C 17.7

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 18.2

[Summer of 95]

Well, it looks as though we'll need July/August weather in the next few days to reach my prediction; after all the umm-ahhing which led to me plumping for a very warm one it's turned out to be another pretty boring April. Just that one day with hail and sleet showers on the 9th, plus a fine sunny Good Friday and one frost right at the start worth mentioning- other than that it's been just bits of sun, a few showers and lots of dry mild cloudy weather. Not even come close to breaking 70F (actually only managed in 2 of the last 9 Aprils) but no unusually cold days either.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0604.htm

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 8.2C, which is 0.1C above average, we also have 37.4mm of rainfall and 136.2 hours of sunshine.

[West is Best]

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0604.htm

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 8.2C, which is 0.1C above average, we also have 37.4mm of rainfall and 136.2 hours of sunshine.

Hi SB - not sure how easy it is, or accurate, to pick his temps from the graph. I'd rather see his frontpage uploaded with the correct figure. The NW tracker has been excellent of late so I'm not expecting Manley/Hadley to be that far from the current 8.46C.

Didn't reply to you ChrisL because had to catch a train, but I do think the CET will climb to near 9C from here (between 8.8C and 9.3C). Saturday and Sunday may be important - it will depend if they are as less warm as the latest 12z suggests.

Edit - at 6.30 om it's now 8.48C so should easily pass 8.5C by midnight. That will leave 5 days. I think a rise of 0.1C is more than likely, so 9C or thereabouts really should be possible ... although that's on the NW tracker and if Philip's is a tad behind then it may not reach it.

Edited April 25, 2006 by West is Best