April CET

[Bottesford]

I like Spring but in an 'ideal world' I would like it cold till about May then warm after and through the summer.

Easterly winds throughout though of course!

I hate wind and rain and westerly winds any time of year. And of course Bartletts.

Tamara

Nah it should be May-September being the warm to hot months, April being pleasent but with cooler intervals (as winter fades), October cooler but with warmer intervals (as summer fades) and Nov-March being the cool to cold months...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Spring for me is Daffodils and tree blossom, not in Feb as in recent past years. A lovely time of year with gradual warmth so I can acclimatise . I don't like real heat in the UK as it is invariably humid and very uncomfortable, 25/26C perfect temp in summer calm and clear with low humidity Sept is my favourite non winter month with some lovely late summer warmth and cool evenings. I don't mind westerlies in October and Nov as long as it brings gales and lashing rain. Bitter easterlies to follow

BFTP

[Metomania]

The NW tracker has finally hauled in the 1961-1990 average - it's now on 7.9C. The real one to strip is the 8.1C which is the average both for 1971-2000 and 1906-2005 100 year rolling. It's taken a while to come up, but I expect it will now whizz past fairly briskly with the sort of temps projected ahead. Thereafter it's anyone's guess, but I'm feeling reasonably happy with my orginal 9.1C guestimate! :lol:

[Guest Mike W]

5 years ago was the last average to below April. From 1988 to 2005, 6 out of 18 Aprils have been average to below [61-90]. Good old clean air act eh. :lol:

[Weather-history]

Good old clean air act eh. :lol:

Wearing thin now, Mike harping on about it. At least we don't have the terrible pea soupers of yesteryears :lol:

[summer blizzard]

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200604.htm

According to Phillip Edens website, on the page which has been updated, the current CET is 7.7C, we have had around 30mm of rainfall and 120 hours of sunshine.

The period from today until the end of the month may produce a average daily CET around 10.4C, which is 2.3C above average.

So far April 2006 has been dryer, cooler and sunnier than April 2005.

[kold weather]

Well the warm temps over the next 7 days should rise the April CET towards 9C, though temps will drop once again a little past the 25-26th, so I'd think a CET close to 8.7c is my punt at this stage, so I'm very happy indeed with my punt of 8.9C.

[summer blizzard]

I am hoping that the CET is no lower than 8.8C because that would mean that i have been within 0.5C of the final CET every month so far this year.

Here are my predictions and the monthly CET...

January - 4.7C - 4.3C

February - 3.7C - 3.8C?

March - 4.8C - 5C?

April - 9.3C - ?

[Guest Mike W]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the last Pea Souper I have heard about occuring was 1962 Mr Data, but yes I agree it's wearing thin, so apologies for that, I certainly behind the reduction in those pollutants, the problem is nature doesn't recognise CO2 as a pollutant. Anyway back on topic and 8.7 looks good for this months CET.

Edited April 20, 2006 by Mike W

[acbrixton]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the last Pea Souper I have heard about occuring was 1962 Mr Data, but yes I agree it's wearing thin, so apologies for that, I certainly behind the reduction in those pollutants, the problem is nature doesn't recognise CO2 as a pollutant. Anyway back on topic and 8.7 looks good for this months CET.

Mike I believe that this is correct. thankfully the death toll was less than the more famous smog of 1952 (?). I assume that the Clean Air Act of 1956 had not been brought fully into force by 1962? Does anyone else know?

Regards

ACB

[TEITS]

Indeed, 21°C at this point is actually some 7°C above the average maximum and as you quite rightly say, is what would be expected in July/August. This is something you find happens as spring arrives, people 'expect' 20+°C temperatures as though they're the norm and call a poor spring unless it occurs regularly.

Imagine the outcry if every single day of the month had a maxima of 13°C and minima of 5°C, it would be seen as a poor month, despite it actually being a degree above average! Obviously that is next to impossible, but shows how people's expectations of April and spring in general are a little high!

21C maybe 7C above average but for the end of April isn't anything special at all.

Look at some of these temps since the 90's.

1990 25C in Aberdovery on the 30th, 1993 25.8C on the 30th in Scotland, 1994 25C in Cromer on the 29th April, 1996 23.8C in Weybourne (Norfolk) on the 21st, 1997 21C in Bristol on the 9th April, 1998 23.8C in Rickmansworth on the 22nd, 1999 21C in Northholt on the 1st April, 2001 21C in london on the 2nd April, 2002 25C in kensington on the 23rd, 2003 27.4C during the heatwave of Mid April!, 2004 23C in London on the 24th, 2005 22nd in London on the 30th.

In other words the temps maybe above average but when you look back at the last 15 years it is quite normal to reach such values even if it is for short period of time. So you could argue that those members who have complained about the temps are justified when you look at these figures!!

Edited April 21, 2006 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Metomania]

So you could argue that those members who have complained about the temps are justified when you look at these figures!!

That doesn't follow. If April is average (which it currently is) then there is no logical justification for anyone to complain about the temps. Unless you 1. believe in Global Warming 2. want it to produce averages 3C higher than normal 3. get annoyed when it does not. In fact, looking at Philip Eden's site the maximum temperatures on the CET have been above average every day since April 12th - it may seem surprising but it's true: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0604.htm

A lot of those temps you posted come right at the end of the month - 10 days away from now.

Looking at the overnight models and a bit of a slip in maxes, more in line with last night's BBC1 forecast. Might just see a 20C tomorrow.

Edited April 21, 2006 by Metomania

[TEITS]

That doesn't follow. If April is average (which it currently is) then there is no logical justification for anyone to complain about the temps. Unless you 1. believe in Global Warming 2. want it to produce averages 3C higher than normal 3. get annoyed when it does not.

A lot of those temps you posted come right at the end of the month - 10 days away from now.

Looking at the overnight models and a bit of a slip in maxes, more in line with last night's BBC1 forecast. Might just see a 20C tomorrow.

Of course it follows because some members have complained at our temps so far this month and like I say when you look at those figures it appears there is nothing wrong with expecting 21C in April.

As for being at the end of the month if you look again some of those temps were reached early in the month.

The problem with the April average is that although the average temp is 13C this is hardly ever reached in comparsion say to Jan average due to being inbetween seasons and the varied airmasses we can have which is often why you can go from one week having temps of only being 7C and the next week being 21C.

You cannot argue with the facts and I bet if I look at some other decades you wll find 70F being reached on many of those years.

[acbrixton]

Of course it follows because some members have complained at our temps so far this month and like I say when you look at those figures it appears there is nothing wrong with expecting 21C in April.

You cannot argue with the facts and I bet if I look at some other decades you wll find 70F being reached on many of those years.

It would be interesting to know how often April fails to have at least one location on one say that does not reach a maximum of 21c...Certainly it was the view of Mr Bert Foord writing in 1973 that it would be a cold April if 21c was not reached at least once...

Regards

ACB

[Metomania]

You cannot argue with the facts and I bet if I look at some other decades you wll find 70F being reached on many of those years.

The facts are that the maximum temperature average for April has been exceeded every day for the past 10.

On your temp sequence since 1990, 4 years do not appear (1991, 1992, 1995, 2000). Re Mr Foord, the CET's for those years (the best test of a month's temperature, reveal 1991 and 2000 to be 7.8C and 7.9C, but 1992 and 1995 made 8.7C and 9.1C, suggesting the highest temp has little relevance. Of the remainder 4 years reached those highs on either the penultimate or final day of the month. As a 20C is more than possible in the remaining 9 days of this April it would be unwise to draw conclusions, before the conclusion. Otherwise it looks like fact-twisting before the facts are in!

It's nice to wish for warmth, but the 2-season mentality that you seem to be in from your post is not a fair reflection of UK climate. We have 4 seasons, and we're in spring at the moment. 21C in April is an unusual temperature. We may get it this month, but it's not the April norm.

We're heading for an April that is above average, even by the 1971-2000 mean. You can't really say fairer than that.

Edited April 21, 2006 by Metomania

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hold on guys. Lets get something straight here. There is no 'norm' for a month. A months temperature can come out at average, but can be reached in so many ways.

Above average temps, average temps and below average temps are always possible in any month. In fact, I would have thought that most months have all three.

There are no facts, and no 'norms'. Temperatures do not follow a pattern. The weather does what it wants to do.

Anyway. Going back to the models

Still, the warmth looks like its set in stone. Some minor details still at a variable the further north you go, but the south should enjoy a nice weekend (in terms of temps anyway).

After this? It still looks like a cool down, but nothing out of the ordinary. Mostly, it looks like some average temps for the time of year.

Also, it looks like some nice spring showers are on the cards. So something to look forward to for most.

[Metomania]

Hold on guys. Lets get something straight here. There is no 'norm' for a month. A months temperature can come out at average, but can be reached in so many ways.

Above average temps, average temps and below average temps are always possible in any month. In fact, I would have thought that most months have all three.

There are no facts, and no 'norms'. Temperatures do not follow a pattern. The weather does what it wants to do.

Hi Chris - I'm using 'norm' as synonymous with 'average'. So I totally agree about many ways to reach that norm i.e. average for the month.

Got to take issue about facts though. I think there are facts - such as that the CET average for 1971-2000 is 8.1C. That's the sort of fact I don't want to concede or metereologists might as well pack up their bags? Another is that the mean max CET temp since April 12th has been above the norm - see Philip's Eden's link I posted. On the other hand, I agree that there are other statistics which can be manipulated, and there are ways of playing with them.

Edited April 21, 2006 by Metomania

[SNOW-MAN2006]

above average month i think will be the outcome now with the C.E.T nearing above average status and with 20C+ forecast for the weekend i think our below average months have come to an end the only hope now for below average temperatures is for the current projected cool spell to come true at the end of the month.

[Bottesford]

above average month i think will be the outcome now with the C.E.T nearing above average status and with 20C+ forecast for the weekend i think our below average months have come to an end the only hope now for below average temperatures is for the current projected cool spell to come true at the end of the month.

Surely we want below average months in winter not late spring & summer anyway. Time for a run of above average months until October I think

[TEITS]

Hold on guys. Lets get something straight here. There is no 'norm' for a month. A months temperature can come out at average, but can be reached in so many ways.

Above average temps, average temps and below average temps are always possible in any month. In fact, I would have thought that most months have all three.

There are no facts, and no 'norms'. Temperatures do not follow a pattern. The weather does what it wants to do.

Your correct Chris and that is the point im trying to make.

Let me use Jan Average as an example now you are much more likely to see Max temps of around 6C on a daily basis than 13C in the month of April. The April average isn't based on the fact that temps have often hit 13C but the total temps overall in the month so the average can be reached in many ways and quiet often is.

Edited April 21, 2006 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Metomania]

The April average isn't based on the fact that temps have often hit 13C but the total temps overall in the month so the average can be reached in many ways and quiet often is.

The Eye,

You can't have it both ways!

I took issue with your comment that

you could argue that those members who have complained about the temps are justified when you look at these figures!!

. I challenged this precisely because an overall average April, or indeed an above average one which we're heading for, can be reached in any number of ways. What matters in terms of the CET is not how that average is attained, but whether, over the entire month, the average is below, on, or above. You can't have it both ways - on the one hand complaining at allegedly low maximums at the same time as admitting that there are many ways to get there, including not having high maxima! Consistency please ...

As it happens, I don't agree anyway with your maximum temperature assertions for reasons I pointed out, and which you haven't answered: not least that the maximum temperature has exceeded the average every day since April 12th. We're likely to have a 20C or a 21C before the month is out anyway so I'm really not sure what point you're trying to make. The fact, if indeed at midnight on April 30th this is the case, is that April will be an above average month.

Edited April 21, 2006 by Metomania

[TEITS]

The Eye,

You can't have it both ways!

I took issue with your comment that . I challenged this precisely because an overall average April, or indeed an above average one which we're heading for, can be reached in any number of ways. What matters in terms of the CET is not how that average is attained, but whether, over the entire month, the average is below, on, or above. You can't have it both ways - on the one hand complaining at allegedly low maximums at the same time as admitting that there are many ways to get there, including not having high maxima! Consistency please ...

As it happens, I don't agree anyway with your maximum temperature assertions for reasons I pointed out, and which you haven't answered: not least that the maximum temperature has exceeded the average every day since April 12th. We're likely to have a 20C or a 21C before the month is out anyway so I'm really not sure what point you're trying to make. The fact, if indeed at midnight on April 30th this is the case, is that April will be an above average month.

Blimey talk about going around in circles!!

The only point im trying to make is with regards to a comment by Reef that members shouldn't expect warmth in April and all im trying to say is that in the last 15 years a majority of those years had seen at least 21C reached before the end fo the month even if it did last a couple of days.

We seem to be at odds on what we are discussing because im not talking about whether the CET is above or below average but just whether 70F will be reached this month!.

[reef]

Blimey talk about going around in circles!!

The only point im trying to make is with regards to a comment by Reef that members shouldn't expect warmth in April and all im trying to say is that in the last 15 years a majority of those years had seen at least 21C reached before the end fo the month even if it did last a couple of days.

We seem to be at odds on what we are discussing because im not talking about whether the CET is above or below average but just whether 70F will be reached this month!.

Bear in mind the majority of the last 15 years have seen well above average Aprils. Reaching temperatures upwards of 21°C in April might be the 'norm' now, but in longer terms it is very much a less common thing. However, my argument still stands here, the complaints that surface when an April doesnt reach 20°C are totally unjustified. As I said in the other thread, although next to impossible, if every day was 14°C and every night 6°C, there would be many complaints about a cool month, despite the fact that the month would have a CET of 10°C.

At the end of the day its just a case of overexpectations, possibly influenced by the warm years post-1988. The same would happen in July if everyday was 22°C. It is 'expected' to reach 30+°C without question there too, despite being 8+°C above average.

[Metomania]

Well the 8.1C has finally been reeled in on the NW tracker - it's now at 8.1C. With 9 and a bit days to go it's going to be very interesting to see where this winds up!

[Sunshine]

As I said in the other thread, although next to impossible, if every day was 14°C and every night 6°C, there would be many complaints about a cool month, despite the fact that the month would have a CET of 10°C.

The average temperature at Birmingham Airport this month so far is 7.8ºC, which is just below average despite the fact that the highest temperature this month is only 14ºC (Which has been reached on 6 seperate days), so although this month will end up about average, it still feels like a cool month.