April CET

[kold weather]

I'm not going to get that involved with the Everton Fox debate, as thats for a different place (not here please, this is a CET THREAD!)

The first 2 days of April do look very mild though to be honest this is then counter-balanced by a couple of days with some very low mins forthe time of year, possibly down to -5/6c in rural areas and that would be more then enough to off-set the above average start. From then on we are back to average (iDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me) again.

[Optimus Prime]

His long-range forecasts are consistently more accurate than most

LOL! I will say no more

Back on topic. April can be a month of two very different halves. It's very common for cold snaps to occur during the first 10 days or so. Often bringing snow and low temperatures.

April 2003 would be a good example. Cold start with some very low minima- -7.5c at Flintshire. The most exceptional and memorable heatwave starting from the 16th with 27.4c at Mortimer and some other very high temperature ranges from cold nights and hot days. April 2003 was also warm, but perhaps not as warm as you would expect at 9.8c (1.7c above average)

I remember easter being particularly hot.

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood: 6.4C

Steve Murr: 6.4C

Sunshine: 6.5C

Shuggee: 6.7C

Ragnarok: 7.1C

Rikki: 7.2C

Helly Hanson: 7.3C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C

Great Plum: 7.5C

Joneseye: 7.6C

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C

Evo: 7.7C

ChrisL: 7.8C

Mr Data: 7.9C

Glacier Point: 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C

Peter Tattum: 8.1C

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C

Foggy: 8.2C

Rollo: 8.3C

Optimus Prime: 8.4C

Scribbler: 8.4C

Londonsnow: 8.5C

bartlett_hi: 8.6C

Blast from the past: 8.7C

Reef: 8.8C

Snowmaiden: 8.9C

Kold Weather: 8.9C

SteveB: 8.9C

Bottesford: 9C

The PIT: 9C

Metomania: 9.1C

Summer Blizzard: 9.3

phil n.warks: 9.6C

button-wales: 9.9C

Summer of 95: 10.1C

Rodger J Smith: 10.2C

Can i ask that all CET estimates or changes to CET estimates are in by 00:00 tonight.

[Guest Mike W]

What is the latest date you can make a CET prediction for April.

[summer blizzard]

What is the latest date you can make a CET prediction for April.

31/03/06 - today, you have untill midnight.

[Bottesford]

What is the latest date you can make a CET prediction for April.

I think he's saying tonight at midnight

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think that was the rule for any previous CET thread- and I won't be conforming to it, because I will be making my CET prediction with the monthly discussion tomorrow!

[stricklands]

my guess would be 8.9

[noggin]

I'm plumping for 7.5 C.

[conor123]

Im thinking 6.6c will be the CET,purely because i dont think

there will be a major heatwave all month,and i think

there could be some decent snow next week.

[PhilipEden]

FWIW, the NTLRF* comes out at +0.3, in other words 8.4°C.

Philip

(*NTLRF = Not The Long-Range Forecast)

[Roger J Smith]

Resistance is futile, the space warming devices are locked and loaded. But they won't be working until about the 10th.

[Metomania]

Here are the mean benchmarks for testing this month. Will it continue the new sequence of average to below average months, or will the normal service of recent years be resumed?

1971-2000 mean: 8.1C

1961-1990 mean: 7.9C

1906-2005 (100 year rolling average): 8.1C

[Thundery wintry showers]

I went for 8.2C.

[noggin]

1906-2005 (100 year rolling average): 8.1C

I think the 100 year rolling average is the best thing to go by, as it is more "general". Using "random" 30 year periods is a bit "picky".

Also, 100 years would cover all of our lifetimes, unless there are some totally ancient old crocks on here!

regards

noggin (Exonian born and bred)

Edited April 1, 2006 by noggin

[Matty M]

7.5c im going for :lol:

[SNOW-MAN2006]

so now let the waiting begin. 1st day of april already halve way through and pleasantly warm but will the gloves be out next week ? will it be another below average month? will summr make an appearance or will atlantic rain make way for a wet and average month? only 29 days and the answers will be revealed...

[Supercell]

Hey all,

I'll go for an 8.4C

[Metomania]

Also, 100 years would cover all of our lifetimes, unless there are some totally ancient old crocks on here!

regards

noggin (Exonian born and bred)

There's a few of 'em around these parts! Philip Eden has just made the very sensible point that where he can he uses the latest 30 year rolling average + he puts a stat comparing it with the last 100 years' figure as well. He put it better than that in the March CET thread. It seems a good idea as it avoids too much confusion.

I'm probably too late to register but I will go with 6.9C

Tamara

I cannot really see why a couple of days latitude shouldn't be given. It hardly gives anyone very much advantage to have a day or two extra. It would only be if you got to the middle of the month that it might become unfair! Or if you change it half way through!

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood: 6.4C

Steve Murr: 6.4C

Sunshine: 6.5C

Connor123: 6.6C

Shuggee: 6.7C

Snowprincess: 6.9C

Ragnarok: 7.1C

Rikki: 7.2C

Helly Hanson: 7.3C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C

Great Plum: 7.5C

Noggin: 7.5C

Matty M: 7.5C

Joneseye: 7.6C

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C

Evo: 7.7C

ChrisL: 7.8C

Mr Data: 7.9C

Glacier Point: 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C

Peter Tattum: 8.1C

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C

Foggy: 8.2C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C

Rollo: 8.3C

Optimus Prime: 8.4C

Scribbler: 8.4C

Phillip Eden: 8.4C

Supercell: 8.4C

Londonsnow: 8.5C

bartlett_hi: 8.6C

Blast from the past: 8.7C

Reef: 8.8C

Snowmaiden: 8.9C

Kold Weather: 8.9C

SteveB: 8.9C

stricklands: 8.9C

Bottesford: 9C

The PIT: 9C

Metomania: 9.1C

Summer Blizzard: 9.3

phil n.warks: 9.6C

button-wales: 9.9C

Summer of 95: 10.1C

Rodger J Smith: 10.2C

[kold weather]

Well after today looks like there wil lbe somewhat of a cool down and this should placre the CET back towards average again. Beyond that and there are signs that the Icelandic LP will dive SE and introduce a less chilly (though still below average) NW flow. This pattern then looks like it could set in and i wouldn't be suprised at all if this month was to be dominated by the Mid-Atlantic high.

If that is the case then we could be looking at yet another below average month as a northerly flow at this time is the best to keep the temps down.

What a turn-up though, who'd have thought this time last year that in the space of 5 months, the most above average month would be just 0.1c above and also several decently below average months.

[Guest Mike W]

I thought I would post the 1976-2005 CET series as a rolling series:

Jan: 4.1, Feb: 4.3, Mar: 6.4, Apr: 8.2, May: 11.5, Jun: 14.3, Jul: 16.5

Aug: 16.3, Sep: 13.9, Oct: 10.6, Nov: 7.0, Dec: 4.7. Annual: 9.82

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

being from the north east im going for an average of around 7.5c (for the north east )

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the latest run the average CET from the 4th-15th would be just 4.66c. That's 4.44c below average!

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.1

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.1

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.2

Connor123: 6.6C 6.4

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.5

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.7

Ragnarok: 7.1C 6.9

Rikki: 7.2C 7.0

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.1

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.1

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.4

Noggin: 7.5C 7.4

Matty M: 7.5C 7.4

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.5

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.6

Evo: 7.7C 7.6

ChrisL: 7.8C 7.7

Mr Data: 7.9C 7.8

Glacier Point: 7.9C 7.8

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 7.9

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.0

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.0

Foggy: 8.2C 8.1

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.1

Rollo: 8.3C 8.2

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 8.3

Scribbler: 8.4C 8.3

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 8.3

Supercell: 8.4C 8.3

Londonsnow: 8.5C 8.4

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 8.6

Blast from the past: 8.7C 8.7

Reef: 8.8C 8.8

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 8.9

Kold Weather: 8.9C 8.9

SteveB: 8.9C 8.9

stricklands: 8.9C 8.9

Bottesford: 9C 9.0

The PIT: 9C 9.0

Metomania: 9.1C 9.1

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 9.3

phil n.warks: 9.6C 9.7

button-wales: 9.9C 10.0

Summer of 95: 10.1C 10.2

Rodger J Smith: 10.2C 10.3