April CET

[Joneseye]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Hi Mr_Data any chance you can post what the current CET is as well... or maybe post a link to where I can find it?

Regards

Ian

[Weather-history]

Hi Mr_Data any chance you can post what the current CET is as well... or maybe post a link to where I can find it?

Regards

Ian

Here's the link

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

[summer blizzard]

As the CET is 8.9C according to Phillip Eden, which is 0.8C above average, the GFS6z ensembles would produce a CET of 7.6C by the 20th April, which is 1.5C below average.

[kold weather]

Mike, I think you'll find the CET dropping a fair amount over the next 3-4 days.

Assuming that we get the average at 5.5c today (based on maxes at 9c and mins at 2, which has been widely observed today) then the CET will drop to 8.1c tommorow and suddenly we are fairly close to average again.

So to be base what the CEt will be like after 3 days is just pointless, as so many other months have proven.

Early days so I'm not going to rule out anything, though looking at the models already the record of 10.6c is looking on the high side.

Mike, best not to think that just because April is normally above average that this month will do the same, I thought we learnt thats not always the case with March?

[Anti-Mild]

I'm possibly a little late to register my effort but I'm going to go for the 6th consecutive sub 6c month: 5.9c.

[Guest Mike W]

Your intitled to that opinion, but surely that is way OTT, the record low CET for April is 4.7, where are we going to get that amount of cooling from to get that kind of CET, not from SO2 as it's bad and we don't emmit the amounts we used to in say the 70's anyway, and more to point CO2 levels are too high and getting higher and stuff more potent than SO2 ever will be and is proving it, the stuff traps alot of heat, it too early to see this year as breaking the trend we've only done 3 months, their is still 9 months top go and summer hasn't been average for 8 years since the Summer of 1998.

Edited April 4, 2006 by Mike W

[Anti-Mild]

Your intitled to that opinion, but surely that is way OTT, the record low CET for April is 4.7, where are we going to get that amount of cooling from to get that kind of CET, not from SO2 as it's bad and we don't emmit the amounts we used to in say the 70's anyway, and more to point CO2 levels are too high and getting higher and stuff more potent than SO2 ever will be and is proving it, the stuff traps alot of heat, it too early to see this year as breaking the trend we've only done 3 months, their is still 9 months top go and summer hasn't been average for 8 years since the Summer of 1998.

It's not all about sulphur dioxide or carbon dioxide or AGW or the Gulf Stream! All it takes is the right synoptics; strong and persistent GH, -ve NAO, southerly tracking Jet. No reason why it couldn't happen, admittedly it is very, very unlikely but you never know......

AM

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.2

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.2

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.3

Connor123: 6.6C 6.4

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.6

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.8

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.0

Rikki: 7.2C 7.1

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.3

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.3

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.5

Noggin: 7.5C 7.5

Matty M: 7.5C 7.5

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.7

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.6

Evo: 7.7C 7.7

ChrisL: 7.8C 7.8

Mr Data: 7.9C 7.9

Glacier Point: 7.9C 7.9

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.1

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.2

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.2

Foggy: 8.2C 8.3

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.3

Rollo: 8.3C 8.4

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 8.3

Scribbler: 8.4C 8.5

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 8.5

Supercell: 8.4C 8.5

Londonsnow: 8.5C 8.6

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 8.8

Blast from the past: 8.7C 8.9

Reef: 8.8C 9.0

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 9.1

Kold Weather: 8.9C 9.1

SteveB: 8.9C 9.1

stricklands: 8.9C 9.1

Bottesford: 9C 9.0

The PIT: 9C 9.2

Metomania: 9.1C 9.3

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 9.6

phil n.warks: 9.6C 9.9

button-wales: 9.9C 10.3

Summer of 95: 10.1C 10.5

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 10.6

[summer blizzard]

Anti-Mild: 5.9C

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.2

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.2

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.3

Connor123: 6.6C 6.4

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.6

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.8

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.0

Rikki: 7.2C 7.1

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.3

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.3

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.5

Noggin: 7.5C 7.5

Matty M: 7.5C 7.5

Stormchaser1: 7.5C

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.7

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.6

Evo: 7.7C 7.7

ChrisL: 7.8C 7.8

Mr Data: 7.9C 7.9

Glacier Point: 7.9C 7.9

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.1

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.2

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.2

Foggy: 8.2C 8.3

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.3

Rollo: 8.3C 8.4

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 8.3

Scribbler: 8.4C 8.5

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 8.5

Supercell: 8.4C 8.5

Londonsnow: 8.5C 8.6

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 8.8

Blast from the past: 8.7C 8.9

Reef: 8.8C 9.0

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 9.1

Kold Weather: 8.9C 9.1

SteveB: 8.9C 9.1

stricklands: 8.9C 9.1

Bottesford: 9C 9.0

The PIT: 9C 9.2

Metomania: 9.1C 9.3

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 9.6

phil n.warks: 9.6C 9.9

button-wales: 9.9C 10.3

Summer of 95: 10.1C 10.5

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 10.6

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 7.6C, which is 0.5C below average, the GFS6z ensemble average would produce a CET around 7C by the 21st April.

[Roger J Smith]

I'd say everyone's still in the game here, the April CET will probably be sitting at about 6 or 6.5 by next Tuesday, then it's obviously going to turn warmer mid-month, the question being, really warm or just back to normal warm? So by the 20th the CET will probably be anywhere between 8 and 11. Then it all depends on how long the warmth lasts. Lots of fun watching it all unfold.

Edited April 5, 2006 by Roger J Smith

[PersianPaladin]

I'm going for 7.6C

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.7

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.3

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.3

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.4

Connor123: 6.6C 6.6

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.7

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.9

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.2

Rikki: 7.2C 7.3

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.4

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.4

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.6

Noggin: 7.5C 7.6

Matty M: 7.5C 7.6

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.8

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.9

Evo: 7.7C 7.9

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.0

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.1

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.1

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.2

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.4

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.4

Foggy: 8.2C 8.5

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.5

Rollo: 8.3C 8.6

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 8.7

Scribbler: 8.4C 8.7

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 8.7

Supercell: 8.4C 8.7

Londonsnow: 8.5C 8.8

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.0

Blast from the past: 8.7C 9.1

Reef: 8.8C 9.2

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 9.3

Kold Weather: 8.9C 9.3

SteveB: 8.9C 9.3

stricklands: 8.9C 9.3

Bottesford: 9C 9.4

The PIT: 9C 9.4

Metomania: 9.1C 9.6

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 9.8

phil n.warks: 9.6C 10.2

button-wales: 9.9C 10.5

Summer of 95: 10.1C 10.8

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 10.9

[kold weather]

Well the CET has, as predicted dropped rapidly over the last few days,h ence my point of reading anything into the month at this moment pointless.

Currently at 6.5c and I can see little warming till next Monday/Tuesday, beyond that and while daytime maxes do look quite nice, into double figures, the night-time temps seem to remian on the cool/cold side which will moderate things.

[summer blizzard]

As the CET is 6.5C according to Phillip Eden, which is 1.6C below average, the GFS6z ensemble average would produce a CET around 5.5C by the 22nd, which is 2.6C below average.

Just to show what a mild oulier the operational run was, that would produce a CET around 8.4C by the 22nd.

Edited April 6, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Guest Mike W]

I though he has it at 6.8?

[kold weather]

Ah its been edited now I see, yes Mike its now at 6.8c:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Despite a fairly cool start to the month, I still think April has a fair chance of being above average by a fair way.

[Guest Mike W]

Does anyone know why Hadley have released the E&W mean for February and March but not the CET means for February and March.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It will probably because there is a lot of calibration and error estimation to take into account when the MetO calculate the Hadley CET.

For example, last year their values were consistently a few tenths of a degree below Philip Eden's, which suggested that one or the other was erroneous. In the end it actually turned out to the the Hadley CET that was underestimating and they had to revise their figures upwards.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.7

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.3

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.3

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.4

Connor123: 6.6C 6.6

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.7

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.9

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.2

Rikki: 7.2C 7.3

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.4

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.4

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.7

Noggin: 7.5C 7.7

Matty M: 7.5C 7.7

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.8

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.9

Evo: 7.7C 7.9

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.1

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.2

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.2

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.3

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.4

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.4

Foggy: 8.2C 8.6

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.6

Rollo: 8.3C 8.7

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 8.8

Scribbler: 8.4C 8.8

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 8.8

Supercell: 8.4C 8.8

Londonsnow: 8.5C 8.9

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.1

Blast from the past: 8.7C 9.2

Reef: 8.8C 9.3

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 9.4

Kold Weather: 8.9C 9.4

SteveB: 8.9C 9.4

stricklands: 8.9C 9.4

Bottesford: 9C 9.6

The PIT: 9C 9.6

Metomania: 9.1C 9.7

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 9.9

phil n.warks: 9.6C 10.3

button-wales: 9.9C 10.7

Summer of 95: 10.1C 10.9

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 11.1

[kold weather]

CET presently down to 6.7c, not bad for this time of year though a real sign of a long warm-up and i'm very confident about my figure of 8.9c at the moment looking at the lnoger range outlook of westerly winds.

[summer blizzard]

As the CET is 6.7C according to Phillip Eden, which is 1.4C below average, the GFS6z ensembles would produce a CET around 6.8C, which is 1.3C below average by the 20th April.

The GFS6z operational run would produce a CET around 9.3C by the 23rd April.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.7

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.3

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.3

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.4

Connor123: 6.6C 6.6

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.7

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.9

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.2

Rikki: 7.2C 7.3

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.4

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.4

Great Plum: 7.5C 7.7

Noggin: 7.5C 7.7

Matty M: 7.5C 7.7

Joneseye: 7.6C 7.8

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 7.9

Evo: 7.7C 7.9

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.1

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.3

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.3

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 8.4

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 8.5

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 8.5

Foggy: 8.2C 8.7

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 8.7

Rollo: 8.3C 8.8

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 8.9

Scribbler: 8.4C 8.9

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 8.9

Supercell: 8.4C 8.9

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.0

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.2

Blast from the past: 8.7C 9.3

Reef: 8.8C 9.4

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 9.6

Kold Weather: 8.9C 9.6

SteveB: 8.9C 9.6

stricklands: 8.9C 9.6

Bottesford: 9C 9.7

The PIT: 9C 9.7

Metomania: 9.1C 9.8

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 10.1

phil n.warks: 9.6C 10.5

button-wales: 9.9C 10.9

Summer of 95: 10.1C 11.1

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 11.3

[Guest Mike W]

8.7

Edited April 8, 2006 by Mike W

[Guest Mike W]

Just to mention that I put 8.7 because that is the 1996 - 2005 CET average for April.

[Optimus Prime]

Just to mention that I put 8.7 because that is the 1996 - 2005 CET average for April.

You've been consistantly predicting warmer than average months yet we still haven't had one. But I think you're right this time around.