April CET

[A Gower Guy]

Well almost at the halfway through the month my average is sitting around 7.4°c last April finished around 10.3°c.

Still hopefull that the CET will be 9.9°c

Edited April 14, 2006 by button-wales

[kold weather]

SB, how did you get a CET figure of 12c???

Just worked it based on 2m temps that SF talked about and got a CEt of 10.3C, with the 29th upto 16.5C!

That would make it close to the record but not quite there, but still close to the top with some of the warmest ever.

i actually feel my target of 8.9c is looking very close to the money at the moment, its low enough to allow the trend for warmer weather in FI to be downgraded but warm enough to suggest it won't need any more noteable cold spell to have it be close.

I think that a CEt in the 8c range is looking most likely presently.

[Metomania]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 6.6C, which is 1.5C below average.

Just crossed the 7C mark on NW. (Philip's 6.6C was yesterday)

Touch and go whether we'll get to 8C by Monday night. My only slight disagreement with Stratos Ferric's otherwise excellent posts is that some serious warmth is beginning to show up on the model outputs now. It's remarkable just how quickly a month can turnaround. Whilst a cool outcome is still possible, it's not at all implausible that we could have something well into the 9's, and even into the record-breaking zone of the 10's. A long way to go, and really anything can happen. The models suggest warmth ahead though.

[Roger J Smith]

I realize that average temperatures don't rise very much from month to month in England, but still, people need to keep in mind when talking about the mean temperature for the first ten or fifteen days of a spring month that the "normal" or average for that period will be lower than the overall monthly mean. Just using rough figures, I would assume that if the mean April temperature was 8.5 degrees, then the mean first half of April temperature would probably be around 7 and the mean second half would be around 10. So at the moment, when you're looking at what it would take to achieve various CET predictions, you're looking at a prediction for the second half of April and whether that is above or below normal relates to 10, not 8.5, if you see what I mean. Mr Data could no doubt fine tune my half-monthly estimates to add some precision to this point.

[reef]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 6.6C, which is 1.5C below average.

Assuming that the average of the GFS6z ensembles came off, and that there were no inversions, then the average of the GFS6z ensembles may produce a daily CET in the vicinity of 9.5C, which is 1.4C above average and may result in the monthly CET being in the vicinity of 8.2C, which is 0.1C above average.

Just to show the scale of the GFS6z operational run outlier, assuming that there were no inversions then on its own, it may result in a daily average in the vicinity of 15.8C, which may result in a monthly CET in the vicinity of 12C, which is almost 4 above average.

It is very unwise to simply use the ensembles to predict the temperatures at this time of the year. As SF mentioned, inversions are very unlikely at this time of the year (though possible in some cloudy easterly setups), but the reverse is quite common. Today for example it reached almost 15°C here under -2°C 850hPa air, and that was with a 15-20mph wind.

The biggest factor in determining the temperature is cloud cover, wind strength and how wet the ground is. Tomorrow for example the models now have a small low pressure system moving across the south. Temperatures are progged in the 13-15°C range, however under precipitation and cloud cover, that is likely to be optimistic.

Edited April 14, 2006 by reef

[Metomania]

I hope we see a below average April anyway.

As a matter of interest, why?

Do you not like spring?

[Thundery wintry showers]

But surely if April was below average, it would still be spring, just not a particularly warm spring month?

It seems that spring months have to be above average to be "spring months" these days... a sign of people getting used to the current baseline of continued "above-averageness"?

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Anti Mild: 5.9C 5.0

drfeelgood: 6.4C 6.0

Steve Murr: 6.4C 6.0

Sunshine: 6.5C 6.2

Connor123: 6.6C 6.3

Shuggee: 6.7C 6.5

Snowprincess: 6.9C 6.9

Ragnarok: 7.1C 7.3

Rikki: 7.2C 7.5

Helly Hanson: 7.3C 7.7

AtlanticFlamethrower: 7.3C 7.7

Great Plum: 7.5C 8.0

Noggin: 7.5C 8.0

Matty M: 7.5C 8.0

Joneseye: 7.6C 8.2

Terminal Moraine: 7.7C 8.4

Evo: 7.7C 8.4

ChrisL: 7.8C 8.6

Mr Data: 7.9C 8.8

Glacier Point: 7.9C 8.8

SNOW-MAN2006: 8C 9.0

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 9.2

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 9.2

Foggy: 8.2C 9.3

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 9.3

Rollo: 8.3C 9.5

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 9.7

Scribbler: 8.4C 9.7

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 9.7

Supercell: 8.4C 9.7

Londonsnow: 8.5C 9.9

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 10.1

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.3

Reef: 8.8C 10.5

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 10.7

Kold Weather: 8.9C 10.7

SteveB: 8.9C 10.7

stricklands: 8.9C 10.7

Bottesford: 9C 10.8

The PIT: 9C 10.8

Metomania: 9.1C 11.0

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 11.4

phil n.warks: 9.6C 12.0

button-wales: 9.9C 12.5

Summer of 95: 10.1C 12.9

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 13.1

Edited April 14, 2006 by Mr_Data

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Initiate has swung to mild... so exciting!

Anything below 8C looks courageous now. Another cool spell however might put 7.3 in the frame though below that seems unlikely as even the colder spells will be warmer later in the month than earlier. I'm suprised by the difference a few days can make.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

current C.E.T= 7 celcius (-1.0c below average) and my forecast of 8.0 is looking quite likely now with a warm spell ahead but if it gets too warm then i think that 10c may be hit but we will see only 15 more days

[Terminal Moraine]

As a matter of interest, why?

Do you not like spring?

I cannot answer for Snow Princess but I am of the same mind.

Personally, I enjoy every season of the year but would still prefer every month to be colder than average.

I find cold weather, and the meteorology and phenology associated with it, more interesting than warm weather irrespective of the season. The pinnacle of meteorological interest ( for me ) would be a spell of air frost and lying snow in mid summer.

I'll not go into the various other reasons I prefer the cold, here, as it's way off topic.

If we experienced an April with a mean temp' of 3c it would still be April and it would still be spring. An extraordinary one agreed and, to my mind, a much more interesting one than if the temperature fell within the normal range of expectation.

T.M

[Guest Mike W]

If we had a and April CET of 3, it would beat the previous record by a full 1.7 celcius, the previous of course being 4.7 set in 1701. I do agree that cold weather is more interesting, unpleasent but interesting, it's athestically pleasent, but unlike mild weather it's not as comfortable, hot weather is unpleasent, and boring, it's just blue ski, and hot and you end up sweating and stinking and sticky, and you wish it to end, that's it, you can't stay out that long in hot weather either, like old fashioned winters we don't get anymore, but at least it was interesting to look at. I prefer the temps we have ATM persoanlly, not to hot not to cold, not to sunny and not to cloudy, bit of both. Our new summers are a bit like the olden day's winters, instead of wishing for the cold icy weather to go away you now want the unrelenting heat to go away.

Edited April 15, 2006 by Mike W

[Metomania]

I cannot answer for Snow Princess but I am of the same mind.

Personally, I enjoy every season of the year but would still prefer every month to be colder than average.

I find cold weather, and the meteorology and phenology associated with it, more interesting than warm weather irrespective of the season. The pinnacle of meteorological interest ( for me ) would be a spell of air frost and lying snow in mid summer.

I'll not go into the various other reasons I prefer the cold, here, as it's way off topic.

If we experienced an April with a mean temp' of 3c it would still be April and it would still be spring. An extraordinary one agreed and, to my mind, a much more interesting one than if the temperature fell within the normal range of expectation.

T.M

Well we are all entitled to viewpoints. I'm just thankful yours doesn't come off, and doesn't stand a chance of coming off!

[Weather-history]

If we had a and April CET of 3, it would beat the previous record by a full 1.7 celcius, the previous of course being 4.7 set in 1701.

If we ever got an April CET of 3C, I would seriously panic

April 1837 also had a CET of 4.7 and members on this site wondering where spring had gone, spare a thought for those people who were around for Spring 1837.

[Guest Mike W]

I don't know how I missed that but I yes it did, I just checked. 170.1 was a slightly colder year at 8.71, with 1837 at 8.82, which probably makes 1837 more interesting.

[Metomania]

Half way through the month now and with the CET at 7.3 it would be surprising from here if we didn't have an abover average month. It may not be by much, or it might be by a lot, but as the second half is nearly always warmer than the first, and with the synoptics the way they are, those in the above 8C bracket should be confident.

To get a colder second half of April than the first (has it happened before, and if so when I wonder?) we'd need some pretty grim synoptics - like a nasty easterly. Thankfully that doesn't look likely. A bit of a northerly later this week. If the HP trundles west afterwards mind then we could see a cool airflow, but under cloudy skies it wouldn't really peg things back much probably. Instead the models increasingly point to warm potential.

[Weather-history]

Any bets that the first half of April could be colder than the second half of March? There is a chance.

Close but no cigar

Second half of March: 7.0C

First half of April: 7.1C

[Thundery wintry showers]

As I mentioned in the model synoptics thread, there is a lot of hot ramping going on here. All of this unseasonably warm weather that people are looking for is in FI, and thus cannot be taken as gospel, particularly since the GFS has been unreliable at times even out to T+96 recently.

According to Philip Eden the mean temperature has still been 0.6C below the 1971-2000 average for 1-15 April, and therefore about 0.4C below that for 1961-90 if people are so inclined. This means that the second half of April will have to be 0.6C above the average for 16-30 April to get a spot on average April.

From the above, I see no justification for the notion that April will definitely be well above average overall. Yes, the second half will almost certainly be warmer than the first half, but that is perfectly normal, and in itself, would have to be more than 2C warmer than the first half to get the CET above average.

[summer blizzard]

I personally can see the CET coming in around 9C, due to a more or less average spell for the next few days and a average spell during the last few days of April with a warm spell for a few days in between.

[acbrixton]

To get a colder second half of April than the first (has it happened before, and if so when I wonder?) we'd need some pretty grim synoptics - like a nasty easterly. Thankfully that doesn't look likely.

Metomania: do you know what you are saying here: "a nasty easterly"? heresy or at least meaningless: like talking of boiling ice or democratic socialism (© A Solzhenistyn)!

Regards

ACB

[summer blizzard]

As Phillip Edens site is not updating for the next few days, Metcheck has the current CET at 7.4C and Net-Weather has the current CET at 7.6C, this is 0.7C and 0.5C below average respectively.

[Thundery wintry showers]

At this time of year, easterlies are not always particularly cold as the Continent warms up- low maxima tend to be cancelled out by high minima, and sometimes it can even be quite warm and sunny in the west. Cold-source easterlies can still pack a punch until mid April but after that, even they rarely bring any significant cold.

Northerlies are the main source of anomalous cold during the last two-thirds of spring.

[Metomania]

As I mentioned in the model synoptics thread, there is a lot of hot ramping going on here. All of this unseasonably warm weather that people are looking for is in FI, and thus cannot be taken as gospel, particularly since the GFS has been unreliable at times even out to T+96 recently.

According to Philip Eden the mean temperature has still been 0.6C below the 1971-2000 average for 1-15 April, and therefore about 0.4C below that for 1961-90 if people are so inclined. This means that the second half of April will have to be 0.6C above the average for 16-30 April to get a spot on average April.

From the above, I see no justification for the notion that April will definitely be well above average overall. Yes, the second half will almost certainly be warmer than the first half, but that is perfectly normal, and in itself, would have to be more than 2C warmer than the first half to get the CET above average.

TWS, and one or two others, I think there's possibly a need for a slight correction here. The average temperature rises steeply through April. There will always be exceptions (although whether there has been a colder second half than first half I'm not sure - probably at some point). The difference though in average max temp from 01st to 30th April is a full 3C, and even the minimum rises by 1.5C through the month. There will always be exceptions should the synoptics turn out cold, but it would be highly unusual not to have a warmer second half of the month than first. To get 2/3rds through the month at average temperature means it is very likely the final 1/3rd will pull up the average. The synoptics certainly bear this out, with increasing warmth.

Metomania: do you know what you are saying here: "a nasty easterly"? heresy or at least meaningless: like talking of boiling ice or democratic socialism (© A Solzhenistyn)!

Regards

ACB

Hi - hate the things. Cold but rarely snowy. Nasty biting winds. Fortunately they are rarely vicious as far as Exeter, but even so I can't stand them!

[Guest Mike W]

I think people were discussing on here and TWO aboput how easterly's have lost there potentency in recent years though and to a certain extent I agree, and I don't just mean in spring and summer, I mean winter and late autumn. But I still think if thats true eastrerly's can alway get relatively colder/cooler in time, maybe.

Edited April 18, 2006 by Mike W

[acbrixton]

Hi - hate the things. Cold but rarely snowy. Nasty biting winds. Fortunately they are rarely vicious as far as Exeter, but even so I can't stand them!

Yes I tend to agree though I am sure that as a schoolboy in Wellington Somerset in the 1970s easterlies were quite nasty enough to make athletics and cross-country running miserable. I enjoy almost all the weather we get in its variety (and thank God for proper seasons too: I like a transition to summer aka "spring") but I find a dry strong easterly with stratus cloud tedious and unpleasant...

Regards

ACB