April CET

[summer blizzard]

West Is Best, i calculated that figure by adding the maximum and minimum together and then dividing by two.

[reef]

Hi SB - not sure how easy it is, or accurate, to pick his temps from the graph. I'd rather see his frontpage uploaded with the correct figure. The NW tracker has been excellent of late so I'm not expecting Manley/Hadley to be that far from the current 8.46C.

Didn't reply to you ChrisL because had to catch a train, but I do think the CET will climb to near 9C from here (between 8.8C and 9.3C). Saturday and Sunday may be important - it will depend if they are as less warm as the latest 12z suggests.

Edit - at 6.30 om it's now 8.48C so should easily pass 8.5C by midnight. That will leave 5 days. I think a rise of 0.1C is more than likely, so 9C or thereabouts really should be possible ... although that's on the NW tracker and if Philip's is a tad behind then it may not reach it.

I think 9°C is very optimistic. Although there looks to be some high maxima values in the next few days the night-time minima look like being low enough to offset a large portion of the increase. Indeed, saturday and sunday morning look to have a risk of ground or air frosts in central England which when coupled with maxima only slightly above or near-to the average should prevent too much of a rise.

Still, regardless it will be above average. Shame really, it would have been interesting to have a below average April for once, personally I find above average months predictable and boring these days, with them being so common and all. Ah well theres always a chance next month could suprise us and give the first below average May in 10 years, although I doubt that too

[West is Best]

I think 9°C is very optimistic. Although there looks to be some high maxima values in the next few days the night-time minima look like being low enough to offset a large portion of the increase. Indeed, saturday and sunday morning look to have a risk of ground or air frosts in central England which when coupled with maxima only slightly above or near-to the average should prevent too much of a rise.

I don't know Reef. We had all this last month with a sharp rise in the last few days and some decrying the possibility that we'd see it get up close to 5C which it finally did on the Manley figure on the last day (Hadley at 4.9C).

I don't really agree about the low minima, at least not at the moment. Mild tonight again and probably tomorrow night too. The temps after that look low for the minima to me on the GFS with all that cloud cover. I think 9C on the NW tracker is a fairly reasonable bet from here, especially with temps soaring tomorrow.

West Is Best, i calculated that figure by adding the maximum and minimum together and then dividing by two.

Ah yes! Bear in mind though that those figures are 24 hours behind. Even so, it does look as if Manley is running a good 0.2C below the NW tracker. This hasn't happened for a few months.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

What I would say Richard, and partly agreeing with you, is we are looking at the CET. So Central England is really the focus to see where this is going. Low minima looks likely in the Central England, where as Devon might see some higher vales at night (and quite similar day max's).

I still dont think 9 will be reached, but as I said yesterday, I cant see it dropping from what it is now.

[kold weather]

I'll be breif but the Net-weather tracker tend to run about 0.3C above the actual CET, quite why I don't know but this is the case.

I'd tend to think something between 8.5-8.9C will be the eventual end result, 9C may just be a little out of reach, tohugh on the net-weather tracker its still possible, but for the real thing, I think the CEt will be lower then 9C.

[West is Best]

I'll be breif but the Net-weather tracker tend to run about 0.3C above the actual CET, quite why I don't know but this is the case.

I'd tend to think something between 8.5-8.9C will be the eventual end result, 9C may just be a little out of reach, tohugh on the net-weather tracker its still possible, but for the real thing, I think the CEt will be lower then 9C.

Yes I'm inclined to agree with this (and ChrisL). I do think 9C will be reached on this NW tracker, but I'd really not spotted the difference this month to Manley. It does look a good 0.3C ahead of it.

I suspect we're going to see the first proper 20C today somewhere today ...

Edited April 26, 2006 by West is Best

[Bottesford]

Hope this low cloud burns off. It is fairly thin with little holes in it but be nice to get a clearer sky. I'm assuming this is the kind of cloud that will 'burn off' in the stronger lunchtime Sun?

On a similar subject- does anyone know what I could get a live cloud 'radar'? Something like the precip radar (like 15-30 mins update time) so I could track the progress of moving/breaking cloud. Can get the odd satellite photo but these are often only every 2-3 hrs...

[West is Best]

Well a string of 17C's today. I was completely wrong in thinking we might sneak a 20C - way out. However, in the quest for a 20C (a new fangled desire in my opinion) it's easy to forget that even a 17C is well above the average maximum for the time of year. Still, no getting away from the fact that I was wrong.

The NW tracker is now on 8.6C. I really can't see much reason for it not making it up to 9C - but as has rightly been pointed out, it's likely to be a good 0.3C above the Manley figure. So those around 8.7C or 8.8C might be most confident at this stage!

WIB

Edited April 26, 2006 by West is Best

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Peter Tattum: 8.1C 5.6

Stephen Prudence: 8.1C 5.6

Foggy: 8.2C 6.4

Thundery Wintry Showers: 8.2C 6.4

Rollo: 8.3C 7.2

Optimus Prime: 8.4C 7.8

Scribbler: 8.4C 7.8

Phillip Eden: 8.4C 7.8

Supercell: 8.4C 7.8

Londonsnow: 8.5C 8.5

bartlett_hi: 8.6C 9.2

Blast from the past: 8.7C 10.0

Reef: 8.8C 10.8

Snowmaiden: 8.9C 11.5

Kold Weather: 8.9C 11.5

SteveB: 8.9C 11.5

stricklands: 8.9C 11.5

Bottesford: 9C 12.3

The PIT: 9C 12.3

Metomania: 9.1C 13.0

Summer Blizzard: 9.3 14.5

phil n.warks: 9.6C 16.8

button-wales: 9.9C 19.0

Summer of 95: 10.1C 20.5

Roger J Smith: 10.2C 21.3

[Optimus Prime]

is now on 8.6C. I really can't see much reason for it not making it up to 9C -

WIB

I can, very low minima. With temperatures down to +4c and as low as 0c in a few places it would need spectaulary high maxima to push it up by 0.4c in 3 days.

If minima were to be around +4c maxima would need to get up to around 20c-22c to off set the below average minima. With maxima around 17c expected that only equals to an average 24 hour mean of 10.5c which is.....average for late April.

My 8.4c may be very slightly too low. I rekon to official figure will be around 8.6c. 8.6c which is only 0.5c above average, close to average.

[West is Best]

My 8.4c may be very slightly too low. I rekon to official figure will be around 8.6c. 8.6c which is only 0.5c above average, close to average.

Nevertheless, above average OP and I bet your bottom dollar if it wound up 0.6C below average you would not be using the words 'close to average'. Don't pretend now!

8.7C on NW tracker now ... heading nicely for 9C by midnight on the 30th I think although Sunday may be a bit of a bummer. As you rightly say OP the official one is looking like it may lag behind the NW tracker.

CORRECTION ... Philip is back and has updated climate uk. Up to yesterday he has the Manley CET at 8.5C, so you can add another 0.1C on since then. This means Manley is only 0.1C behind NW. http://www.climate-uk.com/

Edited April 27, 2006 by West is Best

[Optimus Prime]

Nevertheless, above average OP and I bet your bottom dollar if it wound up 0.6C below average you would not be using the words 'close to average'. Don't pretend now!

Well, actually, WIB I'm going by the BBC/Met office definitions. 0-0.5c is close to average, 0.6c-1.2c is above average, 1.3c-2.0c well above average, 2.1c+ exceptionally above average.

To be entirely honest WIB, March that was 0.6c below average across England & Wales IMO is 'close to average' to the 1961-1990 average but was 1.2c below the 1971-2000 average. 1.2c is certainly below average but still not by much! Especially when the first 3 weeks were around 2.4c below average.

[West is Best]

Well, actually, WIB I'm going by the BBC/Met office definitions. 0-0.5c is close to average, 0.6c-1.2c is above average, 1.3c-2.0c well above average, 2.1c+ exceptionally above average.

Yes you're quite right - just bet a lot of people on here wouldn't say that for 0.5C below! Even so I'm pretty confident it will be more than 0.5C above average now that Philip has given Manley at 8.5C yesterday (which means at leat 8.6C today).

[kold weather]

I think its now a long shot for even the NW tracker to reach 9C, as OP said night-time mins should be low enough to sto pthe CET getting to 9C.

NW tracker should drop a little overnight from its present temp at 8.7, maybe by 0.01/2 (not a lot I know!) then rise to about 8.78C tommorow afternoon.

[West is Best]

about 8.78C

lol - I like the about 8.78C !

Let's see ... though we had something similar at the end of last month. I think it will be at least 8.8C by tomorrow midnight - probably more. Then it's a short hop up to to 9C. May be touch and go, I grant you.

[Bottesford]

71% of normal rainfall and no real rain coming I don't think. Another very dry month passes by. I thought, if any, April would be the one to redress the balance - April showers and all - but it hasn't. I don't even remember seeing any classic 'April showers' - just drizzle and the odd weak front. Not very exciting and not very useful either.

[West is Best]

71% of normal rainfall and no real rain coming I don't think. Another very dry month passes by. I thought, if any, April would be the one to redress the balance - April showers and all - but it hasn't. I don't even remember seeing any classic 'April showers' - just drizzle and the odd weak front. Not very exciting and not very useful either.

We're heading for a major crisis in parts of southern England ... it's all very well wishing the Atlantic dead, but this isn't going to be funny. My heart says I want a long hot summer, but my mind says we badly need a lot more rainfall.

Edited April 27, 2006 by West is Best

[The PIT]

Interesting charge to 9c all depends on whether we get any cold nights in the next few days. GFS thinks tonight will be cold but I think it maybe on a bit on the low side.

Very nice today spring like and the month is turning out again to a bit on the dry side.

[kold weather]

I think this year is going to be very much like 1995/1996, a warm summer followed by a cold winter but dry throughout if I'm honest. On the rainfall front, we'll probably have to wait till the next El Nino to have a truely wet winter since the Sub-tropical belt seems to have nestled over us over the last 18 months, having moved away from the Bartlett position, this is the reason for the more average temps but drier weather, this process I believe will continue to eventually lead to a cold winter. (Off topic, I know!)

Anyway Net-weather CET tracker now upto 8.71C.

[Roger J Smith]

Isn't there a certain irony when people spend more time discussing the second decimal place of the CET than they do investigating new research or thinking about the larger scale processes at work in the atmosphere?

(by the way, the answer is yes) :blink:

[West is Best]

Isn't there a certain irony when people spend more time discussing the second decimal place of the CET than they do investigating new research or thinking about the larger scale processes at work in the atmosphere?

(by the way, the answer is yes) :blink:

Roger ... absolutely, yes. On the other hand, why not discuss both? Macro and micro ...

[West is Best]

Philip has Manley on 8.6C to yesterday, and the NW tracker is currently on 8.74C. We should see NW tracker up to a little over 8.8C today and Manley to near 8.7C. Thereafter it should move upwards on Saturday, but a lot will then depend on the Sat night minima and Sunday maxima as to whether the NW tracker will just creep up to 9C.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Philip has Manley on 8.6C to yesterday, and the NW tracker is currently on 8.74C. We should see NW tracker up to a little over 8.8C today and Manley to near 8.7C. Thereafter it should move upwards on Saturday, but a lot will then depend on the Sat night minima and Sunday maxima as to whether the NW tracker will just creep up to 9C.

8.7c NOT LOOKING BAD THEN???? :blink:

BFTP

[Anvil Crawler]

I am currently running at 8.7°C

[A Gower Guy]

My monthy mean is at 9.44°c upto 28th, the last few days we have had daily means above 10°c, which has dragged my average up.