Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hi TWS

According to Met.no(The Norwegian MET office) January 2005 was 1,7 (6 C above the 61-90 mean:)

http://met.no/observasjoner/oslo/2005/januar/index.html

However, the first 18 days had a mean of 3,5 C, but a more anticyclonic pattern the last half prevented that kind of figures for the month as a whole.

You are right about warm conditons in Oslo in winter. Those conditions can often bring fohn to Southeast Norway, with temperatures of 10 C or more.

I think you will find a high correlation between winter temperature in Norway and Britain. We are in the same boat. The 88/89 ,89/90 and 04/05 winters were extremely mild winter in your location too? At the other end of the scale, I see often references to the january 87 episode in this forum. January 10th 87 has entered the record books in Oslo as well. Not for the lowest minima, but for lowest maxima ever recorded. Until that that day the lowest maxima ever recorded in a day was -18,5. On Jan 10th the max temp was -20,5 in Oslo. I have looked at the 850 HPA temps for that that day and it is beyond anything in the GFS archive. -25C air over Oslo!

Cold setups may bring -20C air over southern Norway, but this was -25! Will we ever(in our lifetimes) see that again?

January '87 was noted for excessively low maxima in Britain as well (maxima of -9C in the south) rather than low minima.

I think the Oslo site used by Weather Log is different to the one posted, it seems to be a lot higher up (204m asl) and on the outskirts, and as such is colder, though it seems to be more prone to the fohn effect.

As for the discussions on the winters, I provided a mathematical means of measuring the relative snowiness (averaged over the country as a whole) of the winters between 1900 and 2006, and have it as a Word document. The long-term average score was between 22 and 23.

Strong El Nino winters:

1957/58 - 34

1965/66 - 35

1972/73 - 15

1977/78 - 32

1982/83 - 20

1987/88 - 9

1991/92 - 9

1992/93 - 15

1994/95 - 18

1997/98 - 11

2002/03 - 12

I notice how the earlier ones, despite being generally mild, were actually relatively snowy, but the later ones were generally snowless as well as mild.

As for the better analogy, the weak El Nino:

1967/68 - 22

1979/80 - 16

1981/82 - 31

1986/87 - 21

1990/91 - 23

No real relationship with snowiness there, though I notice those winters were mostly on the cold side.

[Damien]

If this is the 'worm guy' I'll be less than impressed !

Or have you been doing some grebe studying?

AM

I've been studying but not grebes.

And it's not the worms either.

Taking these into account, I would suggest at this early stage, the probabilities of a large pool of cold air developing to our east are reasonable, and crucially with no Pacific Jet to blast it away, we might stand a better chance of landing the easterly this time round.

Yes & Thats what all the climate models are currently pointing to with an associated warm pool in the atlantic- (Prob the intense WAA)

You mean like thus:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

(Feb. and March)

?

I am pretty sure that the polar vortex is as cold as it is right now for 2 reasons. the first being the solar min is present right now and the second is the lack of any tropical cyclones getting into the jet stream which has meant the amount of heat getting northwards has also been reduced, esp when you compare it to recent years.

If this is true then it means that the "old rules" are still in play and this is indeed good news. Yes.

I've got something quite important to post later tonight.

[Anti-Mild]

I've got something quite important to post later tonight.

Post it now dammit!!!!

I hope it's positive news!

AM

[Damien]

Post it now dammit!!!!

I hope it's positive news!

AM

Sorry I only saw this now.

Sadly it's exceptionally bad news and has already been posted on TWO.

I'll let you look for yourself as it's getting late:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...2006/index.html

They successfully saw the cooler than average August in June, but missed the unusually warm June and July by some way last spring.

FWIW it does get slightly less mild at the end of the year and into January. A weakly positive NAO albeit mild winter?

Edited August 17, 2006 by Damien

[January Snowstorm]

Do you ever confuse yourself Damien? ........................or is it just me

[John Cox]

I think they are well off the mark for winter.

I dont believe that all of Europe will have an above average temp winter.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html

Edited August 17, 2006 by John Cox

[Damien]

I think they are well off the mark for winter.

I dont believe that all of Europe will have an above average temp winter.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html

Here's a nice picture:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n..._World_temp.gif

Even somewhat of an El Niño visible on those charts , or is it just me?

[The Eagle]

Good to see a cool down in the SST's off the US Eastern sea board. Bad to see that warm pool traversing the Atlantic though

[Bottesford]

Quite a storm over the pole it seems:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn061.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rhavn061.gif

Which forms the cold pool of air over the pole over this week:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rhavn482.gif

[Hiya]

Quite a storm over the pole it seems:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn061.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rhavn061.gif

Which forms the cold pool of air over the pole over this week:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rhavn482.gif

See for your last link, can u give me the like to the page where i can access that on the GFS runs? Can't speak German and wouldn't know where to look!

[frozen_north]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

There you go.

[johnholmes]

okay you experts; from NOAA gives this on their site

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal.../enso_advisory/

and to copy just the most relevant bit

The statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007

Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

I have no idea what this means. Perhaps the more clued up members, Steve Muir, GP might like to comment on what this MIGHT mean for our winter?

John

[Damien]

Today's NCEP shows a much cooler August for England at least with a northerly blast now in sight; September is now slightly milder overall but October is now much cooler (once again ). Europe remains mostly below average in all months, indicating some more blocking of some sorts - I would think(?). November is still mild, as are December and January, but with the cold now equally closing in from our east in both months. A mild-cold battle, in a very negative NAO-type winter in the first chart overall?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

Exceptionally mild months for Greenland and its Icelandic neighbour overall from November onwards, backing the (at least weakly) negative NAO theory.

In the longer term the cold truly does reach our South-East from Europe but mildness is still winning in the North and the West. I still hate that Atlantic exceptionally mild pool though.

A new ice age begins in January over Northern Europe - that is truly one impressive cold pool!:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

A very 2004/05-type winter looking by that - and these ever-unreliable charts get ever more reliable as they get closer.

Edited August 19, 2006 by Damien

[Snowly does it]

A warmer Greenland and Iceland with the hallmarks of a weakly negative NAO..

Would that not be indicative of a blocked regime? In which case I canot see where they get warmth in the UK from, unless the northern and eastern influences are well above average?

Sorry, I am confused by long range stuff, if the current blocking patterns remain in place I can't see anything but a winter anywhere from cold to at worst slightly above average (and that would take some bad luck)

I'll make a prediction based on intuition and a belief in a blocking regime being maintained (with intermittent Atlantic activity) right through to next year.

Winter CET of 3.7 with December the coldest month and January the warmest, 8 plus days of METO-recognised lying snowfall at sea level, a white Christmas for 50% of people and the bookies to pay out on it and November will see record minima and low maxima for respective dates on more than one occasion (more than one day).

[Damien]

A warmer Greenland and Iceland with the hallmarks of a weakly negative NAO..

Would that not be indicative of a blocked regime? In which case I canot see where they get warmth in the UK from, unless the northern and eastern influences are well above average?

Sorry, I am confused by long range stuff, if the current blocking patterns remain in place I can't see anything but a winter anywhere from cold to at worst slightly above average (and that would take some bad luck)

If anything that warm Greenland (in particular) and Iceland indicates an exceptionally negative NAO winter: but sadly it's not gonna happen, as the Jet Stream is strong and over us quite potently for at least the early part of next winter. But it's only the early part of next winter - I think it was the December that was cold/colder than average just yesterday and November is slowly starting to lose its mildness - in fact that chart gives you the best example of why this (the UK being mild especially in relation to Greenland, and also Europe) is the case, even though its an LRF. If anything January is still the "mildest" month. Could - and it's the biggest could in weather online history - be a memorable January if even that (light) "yellow" chart comes off.

I'll make a prediction based on intuition and a belief in a blocking regime being maintained (with intermittent Atlantic activity) right through to next year.

Winter CET of 3.7 with December the coldest month and January the warmest, 8 plus days of METO-recognised lying snowfall at sea level, a white Christmas for 50% of people and the bookies to pay out on it and November will see record minima and low maxima for respective dates on more than one occasion (more than one day).

A realistic prediction in my opinion if we ignore the GW factor.

Certainly your thoughts for December and January are very similar to those of the NOAA. No thoughts on February and March (yet(?)) though?

Edited August 19, 2006 by Damien

[Snowly does it]

A realistic prediction in my opinion if we ignore the GW factor.

Certainly your thoughts for December and January are very similar to those of the NOAA. No thoughts on February and March (yet(?)) though?

TBH I factored GW in to my CET of 3.7 - I would have said 3.1 or 3.2 but I think its realistic to add a half these days.

February will be colder than Jan (obviously as I have it pegged as the warmest!).

As for March, I actually think we will have a sharp(ish) winter followed by a relatively strongly warm spring coming in early March. I see the Atlantic having something of a fit next year, I have a pet theory that it will become quite random, an effect of early desalination, looking mighty for a while then going strangely quiet again.

Dec CET to be under 3, Jan over 4 and Feb twixt the 2

Nov I think will be very cold compartively but this will be on the back of some very cold blasts brought on by blocking and a well-placed cold pool in the North. Outside of the blasts it will be relatively normal but perhaps a little less windy than normal.

[shuggee]

I wonder if winter 2006/7 will see the return of the infamous 48hr toppler. I ask this as we didn't have that scenario last winter - and with the current behaviour of the displaced 'Azores' High - I don't think it's happened this summer.

[Rollo]

We dont want the see the toppler scenario Shuggs,I certainly didn't miss it last winter,give me a dominant Greenland high anytime .

[kold weather]

I think I'm going to do another forecast this winter, my last one was pretty poor but I wasn't realistic, mind you i still nailed the mid-Feb-Mid-March cold spell pretty well, but i feel bretter equipped this winter to do a forecast thanks to the likes of Steve.M, GP and many others!

The closest match I've found in terms of the SSTa's is 1986/87 in the places that matter to us and its intresting to note that in both those winters as well ast the other close year, 2002 had a mild, so that would be my punt for December, mild and wet with a positive NAO. I think tht Autumn may be quite similar though I have a feeling that November could be slightly below if we can get the Mid-Atlantic blocking working for us but in the main I'm going for a pretty zonal set-up in the Atlantic with the Azores/Bartlett high close by but maybe not quite close enough to be the dominating factor till December.

As i said its way too early to make a decent forecast and I dare say my ideas are both wrong and also liable to change, but they are what I feel right now for December and this autumn in general. For what its worth I wouldn't be too downhearted though, as those years i mentioned earlier all improved in Jan and Feb, esp as we know with 1986/87...Remember this is just my punt!

Dec Cet-- high 5's, maybe low 6's

Rainfall-- 150% of average.

Edited August 19, 2006 by kold weather

[Noctilucid]

We dont want the see the toppler scenario Shuggs,I certainly didn't miss it last winter,give me a dominant Greenland high anytime .

Sorry but what is a toppler scenario??

[frozen_north]

A toppler scenario is when you often get an area of LP passing over the UK and in its wake a ridge of HP which produces a northernly for a day or two untill the next LP comes crashing in off the atlantic.

[TEITS]

Sorry but what is a toppler scenario??

Following on from IB great description here is some archive charts.

Cold NW.ly snow showers meaning white Xmas for some

Note LP coming over the top of HP although still cold N,ly

Milder Atlantic air moves in as HP sinks S due to LP to the N

[johnholmes]

hi

anyone care to or feel able to answer this post I made ysterday?

okay you experts; from NOAA gives this on their site

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal.../enso_advisory/

and to copy just the most relevant bit

The statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007

Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

I have no idea what this means. Perhaps the more clued up members, Steve Muir, GP might like to comment on what this MIGHT mean for our winter?

John

[beng]

hi

anyone care to or feel able to answer this post I made ysterday?

okay you experts; from NOAA gives this on their site

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal.../enso_advisory/

and to copy just the most relevant bit

The statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007

Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

I have no idea what this means. Perhaps the more clued up members, Steve Muir, GP might like to comment on what this MIGHT mean for our winter?

John

Hi John,

I'm not as expert as Steve or GP but i'll try and answer the question. My understanding is that is will encourage a positive PNA pattern - ie ridging of the jet on the west of America and troughing in the East - basically influencing the jet to leave the US on a more Southerly track than normal. The main worry for anyone wanting a cold European winter would be that sometimes the jet will then plough North Eastwards to the North of the UK creating the now infamous Bartlett high setup. If we end up with blocking to our North and East, then this could potentially lead to a snowy pattern - dependent upon exactly where the boundary between the warm/cold is.

Ben :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

John

Ben basically sums it up. Some have posted CET of winters with strong EL NINO and weak EL NINO events. The prediction of neutral or very weak is a good sign but of course the other factors have to fall in as you know. A strong EL NINO usually brings a mild wet winter for us, very rarely has a cold winter occurred with strong El Nino in the UK.

BFTP