Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[johnholmes]

tks both

will have to wait for GP to see it for his reply

j

[Rob]

i hope we get a nice cold winter with lots of snow, here's a dreaming

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember a couple of northerly topplers last winter, here they are:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051217.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051218.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060209.gif

Those are pretty good examples: the high over Greenland gets shoved away south-eastwards towards the British Isles and we get just a 36-48 hour northerly before mild air sweeps in. However, to have just two of them in one winter is unusual by recent standards, certainly.

The main problem last winter seemed to be the "easterly toppler" scenario, with a transitional easterly, before the Scandinavian High toppled southwards and brought in less cold southerlies/south-easterlies, though the easterly of late December 2005 got just far west enough to give parts of Britain a good taste of what "easterly" snowfalls can be like. The first half of March 2006, however, provided good examples of productive sustained northerlies and easterlies.

The key, to my mind, is going to be the state of cyclogenesis around Iceland. That keeps Scandinavian Highs too far east to bring any proper easterly spells, and helps topple Greenland Highs when we have northerlies. The jet positioning is also important; a southerly tracking jet is most ideal for snow lovers as you often end up with flabby high pressure zones between Greenland and Scandinavia, bringing frequent north and east winds.

[tinybill]

i hope we get a nice cold winter with lots of snow, here's a dreaming

i cany wait to start winter posting lot more fun!!!!!!!! :lol:

[Hiya]

I remember a couple of northerly topplers last winter, here they are:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051217.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051218.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060209.gif

Those are pretty good examples: the high over Greenland gets shoved away south-eastwards towards the British Isles and we get just a 36-48 hour northerly before mild air sweeps in. However, to have just two of them in one winter is unusual by recent standards, certainly.

The main problem last winter seemed to be the "easterly toppler" scenario, with a transitional easterly, before the Scandinavian High toppled southwards and brought in less cold southerlies/south-easterlies, though the easterly of late December 2005 got just far west enough to give parts of Britain a good taste of what "easterly" snowfalls can be like. The first half of March 2006, however, provided good examples of productive sustained northerlies and easterlies.

The key, to my mind, is going to be the state of cyclogenesis around Iceland. That keeps Scandinavian Highs too far east to bring any proper easterly spells, and helps topple Greenland Highs when we have northerlies. The jet positioning is also important; a southerly tracking jet is most ideal for snow lovers as you often end up with flabby high pressure zones between Greenland and Scandinavia, bringing frequent north and east winds.

Last winters easterly topplers where not bad for Scotland, first one produced 10cm's of snow, then it rained, second one produced 28cm's of snow. I'll certainly take a few of those! I always seem to be so disspointed with northely topplers.

This winter I can think that a 3 week pattern will develop more fully, like we've been seeing more of the last two winters, with a easterly-westerly cycle, probably creating endless boring weatherless days. No science or evidance for those remarks, just some applied instinct.

[frozen_north]

Last winter also featured HP forming right above the UK which brought us dull cloudy days which werent cold or mild, just boring while the whole of Europe froze and was covered in snow. Last winter was so close to being cold and snowy but it wasnt. The end.

[tinybill]

Last winter also featured HP forming right above the UK which brought us dull cloudy days which werent cold or mild, just boring while the whole of Europe froze and was covered in snow. Last winter was so close to being cold and snowy but it wasnt. The end.

i just hope we dont have the same patten as we had year with something in the rong place forget wot it was !!!!!!!!!!

[Rob]

i hope we get a nice cold snowy winter, ill just carry on dreaming

[Nordic Snowman]

ECM's autumn prognosis shows no surprises; milder than average across NW Europe and colder towards E Europe. The highest temperature anomolies (positive) are over Greenland:-

ECM's Sept-Nov prognosis

By all accounts their spring forecast (for Norway at any rate) was considerably wrong but we can never disregard ECM. Of course, having 3 months grouped together is not of much use but I guess it is something to look over given this 'quiet' time of year :lol:

Edited August 20, 2006 by Nordic Snowman

[SMU]

ECM's autumn prognosis shows no surprises; milder than average across NW Europe and colder towards E Europe. The highest temperature anomolies (positive) are over Greenland:-

ECM's Sept-Nov prognosis

By all accounts their spring forecast (for Norway at any rate) was considerably wrong but we can never disregard ECM. Of course, having 3 months grouped together is not of much use but I guess it is something to look over given this 'quiet' time of year :lol:

Got room for me in that spare log cabin Mike....

S......

[The Enforcer]

As for the discussions on the winters, I provided a mathematical means of measuring the relative snowiness (averaged over the country as a whole) of the winters between 1900 and 2006, and have it as a Word document. The long-term average score was between 22 and 23.

Now that, I have to see.

death to the Northerly jet and the Scandi Low

Thought it was the Icelandic Low? Still, amen to that.

[Nordic Snowman]

Plenty of log cabins here Steve... let me know and I'll ensure a note worthy discount for you. Book now to back-up your winter hope's

Ian - lol! Needless to say, I hope for a strong N'ly jet and with plenty of lows spinning out from E of Greenland and moving across N Scandi as opposed to moving SSE through the N Sea It's getting close to entering the battle positions

Enforcer - Ian does mean the Scandi Low. I am not keen on the Icelandic Low but a good Scandi trough is right up my street

[Thundery wintry showers]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050104.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119811209.gif

Thing with Scandi Lows is that they can happen via a strong northerly jet, or, when we have a Greenland High and a Scandi Low, it's a completely different story.

I'd have thought that in some cases, they would bring warm air into their circulation over Norway?

Now that, I have to see.

If you're interested, then here:

Winter_Snow_Events.doc

[Stratos Ferric]

Classic December 81 chart there TWS. I'm sure that in forty years people will still be talking about that spell for the one-off event that it was.

Ian, I assume you mean one off in terms of the record breaking severity of the cold, and not the surface synoptics per se. I can't be bothered looking, but I'm quite sure it wouldn't take long to find similar examples of surface set up - certainly from 1979. Looking back now the famous spell of 10th-12th really did benefit from a unique, and almost implausible, set of events that allowed record lows (at that time) to be set, the vast majority of which still do remain intact.

Edited August 21, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[Nordic Snowman]

Yes, the debate over synoptics is a real classic as we do often see set ups as shown in the above link for 1981. But the real debate is this: are N'ly winds as cold as they once were? I guess it depends on all sorts of factors, not least the source of cold air and the timing of it all.

I agree that low pressure over Scandi doesn't always spell good news for Norway. But in the example above, it is clear as to the reason why - a classic Icelandic Low. But I don't do too bad here as my altitude does help keep Lesjaskog white Greenland Highs can be great for perhaps all of us but we can see how they can be a pain as well if in association with a deep Icelandic Low and relatively high pressure close to the S of Britain. A nightmare set up but one which has undoubtably become more common in recent years.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For the record, re. other examples, I can certainly find some from 1979:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790127.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790205.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790504.gif

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For the record, re. other examples, I can certainly find some from 1979:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790127.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790205.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790504.gif

Yep there was only one way for the 1st chart to go...a stunning following 2 weeks + ensued :blush:

BFTP

[drgl]

yes this winter will be very interesting! I can't wait (well i can as i loved the summer sun we had).

[Damien]

I'm not gonna be around much after the end of August, so, before the chart starts to move into the warmer seasons of 2007, take a look at this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

:blush:

Realistic? Madcap? What do you think?

(Personally I don't trust them - but the August forecast has been unusually excellent from NCEP IMHO. They called cool for a long time and are continuing to do so. ))

Edited August 21, 2006 by Damien

[moses]

Could someone kindly explain why the pacific jet is important for good / bad winters and what relationship this has with the atlantic jet

Cheers Guy

[Weather Man]

I'm not gonna be around much after the end of August, so, before the chart starts to move into the warmer seasons of 2007, take a look at this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

:lol:

Realistic? Madcap? What do you think?

(Personally I don't trust them - but the August forecast has been unusually excellent from NCEP IMHO. They called cool for a long time and are continuing to do so. :lol: ))

Hey all :lol: ,

Well Damien, i think this site (NWS/NCEP) u listed & IRI or their super computer software that produces that kind of models are a real freak !! or have schizophrenia !! concerning the (NWS/NCEP), just look back to before nearly 2 or 3 weeks period, it was saying the exact complete opposite!! do u see the hot spot/highly positive anomality just south to iceland?? do u remember where it was before aprox. 15 days ??it was covering the whole UK and even Spain, France, western Germany!!now look to the cold weather over Spain and southern France and Italy... after one month from now look to that LRF again and see what it says!! before 15 days or so, the Middle East and Turkey conditions were like that of Italy and Southern France now ...it is very disappointing thing to us shifting from good cold anomality to warm or even african tropics hot one!! but i don't pay much attention to it, last couple of years, i was monitering them too; they were showing agreat controversial especially IRI, to make things clear here is an example; last January -as we all remember- was extremely cold for eastern Europe and Moscow where maxima temps fall in Moscow to around -32 on 21th or 22th; well below January avg, and the coldest winter since that of 78/79 when they saw a maximas of nearly -35.. before that date of couple of months and exactly in the IRI edition belonging to late November and the one belonging to mid or late December, it was saying that neutral or alittle bit above avg for the whole area form Siberia in the east and extending even to central Europe!! What a prediction!! it is like Accuweather site when it said just aweek ago in its daily forecast, that a city in the eastern US -i think- will see in that day amix of rain and snow= sleet !!! again "What a prediction in summer!!!?"... the final thought that i have over some weather models software is that a little positive/above than avg anomality will be neutral or even less than avg !! any one support me in that?! u can have alook to the archives of these sites and see the controversial by urselves!...

Finally, i still believe -despite all of this controversy- that a moderate EL Nino will develop later this fall, and the December-February period will have a weakly-moderately POSITIVE NAO index(December=moderately positive, January=slightly negative, February= slightly positive), in total like winters of 79/80 and 02/03 :lol: :lol:

Anybody knows when will the Net Weather site forecasters issue their winter forecast ??

Edited August 21, 2006 by Weather Man

[John Cox]

Could someone kindly explain why the pacific jet is important for good / bad winters and what relationship this has with the atlantic jet

Cheers Guy

Good question moses.

I would like to know too.

[johnholmes]

best you ask Mr Muir or perhaps GP

welcome to Weather Man in Jordan, we hope you enjoy your time on here. I'm sure you will although we don't have much info out your way so any weather data would be well received. As to our winter forecast, for the UK, not Jordan, then our Mr Ian is the man, probably in late November although I can see Ian lurking and he may add something

regards

John

[Weather Man]

best you ask Mr Muir or perhaps GP

welcome to Weather Man in Jordan, we hope you enjoy your time on here. I'm sure you will although we don't have much info out your way so any weather data would be well received. As to our winter forecast, for the UK, not Jordan, then our Mr Ian is the man, probably in late November although I can see Ian lurking and he may add something

regards

John

Thanks man for your reply and welcome :lol:

Of course your winter forecast not Jordan!! but i'll corelate it with our forecasts and draw conclusions ...

Waiting for your excellent detailed forecasts Ian Brown, hopin it will be good for u, as well as us here

Edited August 21, 2006 by Weather Man

[Thundery wintry showers]

I thought that of all the winter forecasts around last year, Ian's winter forecast was a good second in accuracy, after that of the Met Office, so it'll definitely be worth watching.