Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[Anti-Mild]

Who might that be then?

I'll hazard a guess that it's either Farkin or Ring B) !

[Damien]

I'll hazard a guess that it's either Farkin or Ring B) !

Or it could be my worm forecast guy.

Sadly Henry has retired now so last year's worm forecast was the final one. Incidentally it went rather wrong... again.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I have to laugh at the METO winter early indicator...likey to be wetter than last winter. It couldn't be much drier could it!!!!

It would seem to me that they are forecasting a zonal/westerly dominated winter and they based this on the June SSTs. I thought they used May SSTs last year? Anyone help

BFTP

Edited August 9, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Damien]

I have to laugh at the METO winter early indicator...likey to be wetter than last winter. It couldn't be much drier could it!!!!

They are not saying "wetter than last winter", they are saying "wetter than average" overall. B) They are also saying milder than average, though they have not exclusively used the word "mild", per se.

It would seem to me that they are forecasting a zonal/westerly dominated winter and they based this on the June SSTs.

If we get a zonal/westerly-dominated winter, then the MetO forecast of a "weakly positive" NAO winter will be wrong.

I think a 2000/01-type winter is most likely going by their forecast, the current climate, etc.. (If this blocking period is to deliver a substantial mid-1990s-type significant cold and snowy period, then it has to deliver it now - as in the next two winters - otherwise we are screwed, if you see what I mean.)

I thought they used May SSTs last year? Anyone help

They did. I think they used the May-early June SST period for this current forecast. Maybe they now find this a more accurate method?

Hope that helps.

[johnholmes]

I have to laugh at the METO winter early indicator...likey to be wetter than last winter. It couldn't be much drier could it!!!!

It would seem to me that they are forecasting a zonal/westerly dominated winter and they based this on the June SSTs. I thought they used May SSTs last year? Anyone help

BFTP

this is the full quote regarding the above comment about SST's.

'This forecast is produced using a combination of statistical models, such as those used to predict the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and complex climate models with additional interpretation by operational forecasters.'

First issued, I think, in July 2006 with their final winter forecast being issued on

Forecast updated 24 Oct 2005

[Tim]

Just noticed this thread, thought I'd put my non-technical educated guessing method to use!

Well this summer seems a bit 89ish so far to me, very good May, June, July but August not matching. The other thing that springs to mind (not checked the stats) but a lot of people say following 76's summer it was very wet. The winter of 89/90 was extremely wet and stormy as well so I'm going for a wet Autumn/Winter!

Edited August 10, 2006 by Tim

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

They are not saying "wetter than last winter", they are saying "wetter than average" overall.

Damien

They ARE saying wetter than last winter...read the following

METO site

Signal for Winter 2006/7

10 July 2006

The winter of 2006/7 for the UK is likely to be milder than the long-term average and wetter than the country experienced last winter, say Met Office long-range forecasters.

Each June, the sea-surface temperature pattern in the North Atlantic gives a hint of what type of weather may predominate across Europe the following winter. Following a period of gathering and assessing this data, Met Office experts are now in a position to give an early indication of what type of winter we might expect.

Voila!

BFTP

[Damien]

They are not saying "wetter than last winter", they are saying "wetter than average" overall.

Damien

They ARE saying wetter than last winter...read the following

METO site

Signal for Winter 2006/7

10 July 2006

The winter of 2006/7 for the UK is likely to be milder than the long-term average and wetter than the country experienced last winter, say Met Office long-range forecasters.

Each June, the sea-surface temperature pattern in the North Atlantic gives a hint of what type of weather may predominate across Europe the following winter. Following a period of gathering and assessing this data, Met Office experts are now in a position to give an early indication of what type of winter we might expect.

Voila!

BFTP

Then, by that logic, if last winter really was, temperature-wise, below average by somewhat (I don't think it was "colder than average" as originally forecast, but this is going along with what all those people who somehow believe that last winter was actually "cold" will say), then maybe "milder than last winter" means "slightly below average", like Metcheck.com forecast in 2004/05, as opposed below average which last winter may well have been.

And Tim, if that forecast comes off then I will be one extremely unhappy man, to put it very mildly!

[Stargazer]

Reading the comments with interest

If the METO can confidently predict that this coming winter will be wetter than the last one I'll stick my neck out and predict that next July will be cooler than the one we've just had

[Guest Mike W]

Theirs nothing stopping next July being just as hot if not hotter, sadly.

Edited August 10, 2006 by Mike W

[Bottesford]

A somewhat related question... is an ice day (max temps below 0c) possible with clear skies (i.e sunny) in the UK? Has it happened before? What kinds of upper air temps are needed for such an event?

[The Enforcer]

A somewhat related question... is an ice day (max temps below 0c) possible with clear skies (i.e sunny) in the UK? Has it happened before? What kinds of upper air temps are needed for such an event?

Almost certainly happened in Jan 1987 and probably in Feb 1991 as well. Both epitomised by raw easterly winds booming across the north sea from Siberia.

Edited August 10, 2006 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

It happened in December 05 as well in my location, generally, uyou need a snow field and upper air temperatures below freezing, if they are above freezing then the weather is generally cloudy in an ice day.

[Stargazer]

A bit of a cheat, I know - but I certainly remember the odd ice day where freezing fog has belatedly cleared to brilliant sunshine, albeit for a short time.

[Bottesford]

Ah ok so is fairly possible then. Only ice days I remember were cloudy like last December. A sunny ice day would be most magical I think!

[karyo]

I have to say that with all this blocked weather we've been having I was really looking forward to the coming winter. However, early indications suggest an El Nino event for the winter.

Of course it might not happen but the possibility of an Atlantic dominated winter with rain and temperature in double figures is enough to make me depressed.

Disappointment is not what I want from my favourite season.

Karyo

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ah ok so is fairly possible then. Only ice days I remember were cloudy like last December. A sunny ice day would be most magical I think!

Bottesford

I grew up in Swansea and so the winters of for example Feb 86 and Jan 87 produced ice days for us but because we were so far west we had many totally sunny days. After Feb 86 the ground had frost down to a metre deep, it remained bitterly cold for the whole month. Jan 87 was exceptionally cold too.

During Feb 86 Francis Wilson quoted 'you must be wondering what all the fuss is about out west' because although really cold we had loads of bright sunshine ie 144hrs recorded in Anglesey They were great winters though I remember them fondly. We had a dumping of snow and it laid there for weeks and weeks ahhhh those were the days

Bottes have a read of this and imagine

1986 Very cold (-1.1C CET), with frequent light snowfalls. The second coldest February of the century (after 1947), and third coldest month. The month was similar to January 1963 in being a completely blocked month, with a high centred over north Russia bringing some very cold air east. Winds were easterly for 23 days, and were of virtual calm for the remaining days. Easterly winds had already set in by the end of January. Snow cover was widespread in the east, where it was very dull: Cupar (Fife) registered only 41 hours sunshine all month. In the west it was very dry and sunny (144 hours sunshine on Anglesey; with no measurable rain at all in some western coastal sites). The lowest temperature was at Grantown-on-Spey, where it reached -21.2C on the 27th. The lowest temperature around Birmingham was -11.0C, at Elmdon, on the 21st, and the highest, just 3.8C on the 28th. Freezing rain in the north Midlands. Up to 50 mm of glaze was recorded on broken power lines at Buxton on the 2nd. Widdybank Fell, at 513 m above sea level in County Durham, remained beneath freezing all month, and had a total of 32 consecutive days beneath zero - probably a record for a habited area. This was our last exceptionally cold month (average beneath zero). I remember our toilet freezing and a six inch icicle growing out of the cistern overflow. I reckon this is the last time I experienced a temperature beneath -10C. The cold persisted into early March. For some reason I find that February 1986 is often "the forgotten month" when one talks about extreme winters in Britain. Perhaps this is because there wasn't any widespread serious disruption due to heavy snow over a wide area, perhaps because there weren't any record-breaking low temperatures, and perhaps because the rest of the winter was unexceptional. Indeed, some parts of the country had no snow at all. Nevertheless, it was, and remains, the coldest month since January 1963.

BFTP.

Edited August 11, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[WINTRY WALES]

I have to say that with all this blocked weather we've been having I was really looking forward to the coming winter. However, early indications suggest an El Nino event for the winter.

Of course it might not happen but the possibility of an Atlantic dominated winter with rain and temperature in double figures is enough to make me depressed.

Disappointment is not what I want from my favourite season.

Karyo

Me too!!!!

Is this long spell of blocking weather patterns over for sure???

I too couldnt face the pattern you described all winter.

what is an el nino event?????

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Me too!!!!

Is this long spell of blocking weather patterns over for sure???

I too couldnt face the pattern you described all winter.

what is an el nino event?????

Firstly blocking remains, we are not over yet. Secondly type in EL NINO on search engine and it will come up. It is natural phenomena and is associated with the surface warming of the eastern pacific off the coast of Chile and Peru. The easterly trade winds generally mean that the surface water warms in the pacific the further west. On occasions the trade winds weaken and the displacement eastward of the warming occurs...it can have major global effect on climate but particularly effects certain areas more than others relating to floods and droughts.

IF an EL NINO event occurs this winter it is expected to be weak at best as signals for an EL NINO would have shown its hand during May and June...this hasn't happened.

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

IF an EL NINO event occurs this winter it is expected to be weak at best as signals for an EL NINO would have shown its hand during May and June...this hasn't happened.

BFTP

Isn't it also true that a weak El Nino is good news for our winter prospects?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Isn't it also true that a weak El Nino is good news for our winter prospects?

AM

I don't know mate. GP, Steve MURR or Summer Blizzard are your guys for that. Whenever I hear EL NINO I think 'mild' winter...yuk

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

AM

I don't know mate. GP, Steve MURR or Summer Blizzard are your guys for that. Whenever I hear EL NINO I think 'mild' winter...yuk

BFTP

BFTP,

I'm pretty sure I remember Summer Blizzard mentioning something along the lines that a strong El Nino is bad news but a weak signal is OK for us. I'm sure he's around somewhere, so I'll ask him.

AM

[SP1986]

The EL Niño might be seen to be building now, looking and the SST anomalies, this isn't certain yet but there are patches of +0.5-1.0 indices around the Peruvian coast, however Papua New Guinea is well below average at this moment in time.

I don't think there is any evidence that El Niño has any direct effect on our weather at the moment, however if there is someone can point it out that would would be helpful (evidence, not opinion).

I think whatever happens, our winter will follow the same vain as the last 2 or 3. The 05-06 winter was a good winter in a modern sense, and I wouldn't be totally certain that there won't be a repeat.... And I may add to that - following on from the debate 2-3 pages back - the METO's forecast was very good considering they issued it 2-3 months in advance - I don't think anyone could possibly say it was not accurate because accuracy to a point of a degree is impossible (see theories on recurrence).

Time to dust off the forecasting theory kit - even if it rather early to be speculating - the current pattern is worth a look into.

[Bottesford]

Bottesford

I grew up in Swansea and so the winters of for example Feb 86 and Jan 87 produced ice days for us but because we were so far west we had many totally sunny days. After Feb 86 the ground had frost down to a metre deep, it remained bitterly cold for the whole month. Jan 87 was exceptionally cold too.

During Feb 86 Francis Wilson quoted 'you must be wondering what all the fuss is about out west' because although really cold we had loads of bright sunshine ie 144hrs recorded in Anglesey They were great winters though I remember them fondly. We had a dumping of snow and it laid there for weeks and weeks ahhhh those were the days

Bottes have a read of this and imagine

1986 Very cold (-1.1C CET), with frequent light snowfalls. The second coldest February of the century (after 1947), and third coldest month. The month was similar to January 1963 in being a completely blocked month, with a high centred over north Russia bringing some very cold air east. Winds were easterly for 23 days, and were of virtual calm for the remaining days. Easterly winds had already set in by the end of January. Snow cover was widespread in the east, where it was very dull: Cupar (Fife) registered only 41 hours sunshine all month. In the west it was very dry and sunny (144 hours sunshine on Anglesey; with no measurable rain at all in some western coastal sites). The lowest temperature was at Grantown-on-Spey, where it reached -21.2C on the 27th. The lowest temperature around Birmingham was -11.0C, at Elmdon, on the 21st, and the highest, just 3.8C on the 28th. Freezing rain in the north Midlands. Up to 50 mm of glaze was recorded on broken power lines at Buxton on the 2nd. Widdybank Fell, at 513 m above sea level in County Durham, remained beneath freezing all month, and had a total of 32 consecutive days beneath zero - probably a record for a habited area. This was our last exceptionally cold month (average beneath zero). I remember our toilet freezing and a six inch icicle growing out of the cistern overflow. I reckon this is the last time I experienced a temperature beneath -10C. The cold persisted into early March. For some reason I find that February 1986 is often "the forgotten month" when one talks about extreme winters in Britain. Perhaps this is because there wasn't any widespread serious disruption due to heavy snow over a wide area, perhaps because there weren't any record-breaking low temperatures, and perhaps because the rest of the winter was unexceptional. Indeed, some parts of the country had no snow at all. Nevertheless, it was, and remains, the coldest month since January 1963.

BFTP.

Sounds quite a tale! Can't say I remember it that well (being only 5 at the time!) but I'd like to see that again- assuming I was in the sunshine zone, not the dull bit- then it'd be awful! Although I'd dread my power bill with those temps!

[summer blizzard]

A weak El Nino is good news for our winter prospects because it encourages a southerly tracking Jet Stream leaving the USA, assuming that signals upstream are in favour of cold then it can produce harsh winter weather.

Here are some winters since 1950 which had a weak El Nino throughout:

2005

1993

1980

1978

1964

1959

Only 1959 and 1993 did not observe a positive PNA pattern, only 2005 did not have a below average month however it did have a severe wintry spell at the end of February.