Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[Dawlish]

Okay, so there is a hot August, a cool-ish September and a clear cold November, but

Dammit Bliar.

No there isn't...there may be!

Paul

[Damien]

No there isn't...there may be!

Paul

Yes, of course. Then they *may* also be a very mild winter, like NCEP is showing. Or they *may* well be one with cold and mild periods, like LAIQ B. on TWO is forecasting.

By the way someone earlier in this thread mentioned that this they thought summer *could* be a repreat of 1976 - anyone know who it was?

[Dawlish]

Yes, of course. Then they *may* also be a very mild winter, like NCEP is showing. Or they *may* well be one with cold and mild periods, like LAIQ B. on TWO is forecasting.

By the way someone earlier in this thread mentioned that this they thought summer *could* be a repreat of 1976 - anyone know who it was?

Better Damien, I'll get you there in the end! This summer could also have been a repeat of 1875.

Paul

[Weather Man]

Okay, so there is a hot August, a cool-ish September and a clear cold November, but

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

Dammit Bliar.

Hi all,

it is better to stay that way ,, so here in the middle east we will have wet and extremely cold weather with blizzards like 49/50 or 66/67 or 79/80 or 91/92 when we saw a miximum of around -7 and snowfalls reaching more than a meter of continuous accumulations ,, but i'm sorry then for your warmth ....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119500205.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119500206.gif

Regards,

Ayman

Edited August 1, 2006 by Weather Man

[Damien]

Well, seeing as they keep nicking my charts (NCEP, IRI, ECPC, etc.).

This is from the French Met Office:

http://66.249.93.104/translate_c?hl=fr&amp.../language_tools

(Translated above into English.)

A close to average last half of 2006 with a below average August by some way (which I can't really conceive) followed by a slightly above average September and an average October (groan ) with gradual cooling into a slightly above average winter, possibly one with a weakly positive NAO looking at all those months. August and December are, notably unlike 1995, the wettest months.

Feasible and encouraging IMHO.

Edited August 1, 2006 by Damien

[The Enforcer]

For me, January is the key winter month to deliver a wintry spell that packs a real punch. Arctic and Northern Europe are usually sufficiently cold and daylight hours and sun strength are lacking. So what have we had over 9 winters? I have taken 20th Jan as an arbitary date, as that's the date when the fax chart archives started in 1998.

Looks like a good NE on first impressions, but the HP was a displaced Atlantic one and by the very next day it has tracked east to let SW's in.

SW air coming up from Azores. Classic Bartlett.

HP sat over the UK. This one is deja vu the HP doesn't retrogress far enough west and the cold air goes into Europe all the way down to the Med (again) and we get mild air circulating around the HP.

This scenario has cropped up recently also. LP's taking a southerly track approaching the UK, sounds good, but the HP has retreated too far east and consequently it's all gone slack instead of there being a cold feed to oppose the incoming SWs.

SW air practically from the equator. Classic Bartlett.

SW air coming up from the Azores.

HP nudging up from the Azores, trying to deflect the Jet, but it soon becomes a Bartlett.

W air with a NW coming in behind very briefly. Displaced HP then drifts up fro Azores, but merely allows mild air to skirt around it.

This just happens to be the one time the Bartlett did pop up last winter. January again. Notice the draw is more a straight W from Newfoundland.

Mild air is there or thereabouts on each and every one of those snapshots. 0/9 sustained cold scenarios. People talk about pattern change. This is the pattern that has to change.

Edited August 1, 2006 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

Two things which have encouragedme in recent winters is that during late January, for the past two winters, high pressure has been directly over the British Isles, attempting to bring an easterly incursion and for the past two winters, there has also been an easterly during late February.

[reef]

For me, January is the key winter month to deliver a wintry spell that packs a real punch. Arctic and Northern Europe are usually sufficiently cold and daylight hours and sun strength are lacking. So what have we had over 9 winters? I have taken 20th Jan as an arbitary date, as that's the date when the fax chart archives started in 1998.

Mild air is there or thereabouts on each and every one of those snapshots. 0/9 sustained cold scenarios. People talk about pattern change. This is the pattern that has to change.

I tend to agree. January is the month when we want a prolonged cold spell. December can deliver but upper air temperatures are usually a long way from their coldest. February on the other hand has the cold air, but by then the strength of the sun makes short work of lying snow.

January has really turned into a crap month for snowfall, 2005 and 2006 were completely snowless here, in fact most years post-1997 have been, with the only real exception being 2004 where the thundersnow event brought 8 inches. It seems to be the pattern of recent years that we get a blocked December (as evidenced by the lack of really mild or cold Decembers recently), and then the jet nearly always fires up during the new year period and ruins January. New year and the end of the month often see the odd toppler, but its usually by mid-February that it settles down somewhat.

I dont put much confidence in the trend of the last couple of years' easterlies either. These easterlies nearly always arrive after a spell of south-westerlies entering the Arctic, meaning mild air has already flooded the cold sources and made the event too marginal (Dec 05 being an exception).

[Damien]

January has really turned into a crap month for snowfall, 2005 and 2006 were completely snowless here, in fact most years post-1997 have been, with the only real exception being 2004 where the thundersnow event brought 8 inches.

Come again?

I dont put much confidence in the trend of the last couple of years' easterlies either. These easterlies nearly always arrive after a spell of south-westerlies entering the Arctic, meaning mild air has already flooded the cold sources and made the event too marginal (Dec 05 being an exception).

Come again?

[summer blizzard]

Damien, you may be interested to know that i am expecting the period of mid-October to mid-November to be around 3C below average.

[Damien]

Damien, you may be interested to know that i am expecting the period of mid-October to mid-November to be around 3C below average.

Yes, and you announced a cold winter on TWO.

I don't doubt your earnestness just your zeal - please go back and relive 2001/02 day-by-day and then, although it's hard - a bit like reading about World War II in History books - consider your actions in the present.

Just last year you initially forecast a period in mid-January to be about 4°C below average or something. I don't think my life will ever be fulfilled until I have experienced the repeat of 1947 that I was told I would get.

[summer blizzard]

While i am not denying that i did make an early forecast of an extremely cold winter last year, that forecast was based entirely on pattern matching, i abandoned that method.

My forecast of an anomolously cold mid-October-mid-November period is a ctually based on teleconnections, my temperature forecasts based on teleconnections have been right 5 out of seven months (within 0.5C of Hadley figure).

My winter thoughts at the moment are based on trends, i will not be able to give any thoughts on the winter period until September and a full forecast until November.

[Damien]

My forecast of an anomolously cold mid-October-mid-November period is a ctually based on teleconnections, my temperature forecasts based on teleconnections have been right 5 out of seven months (within 0.5C of Hadley figure).

http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal...prob_public.gif

http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal...20060701_temp2m

Well, goodnight.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Osbourne One-Nil

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember the blast of 19-20 January 1998. Showers were surprisingly widespread for a northerly toppler, with a trough ensuring that showers broke out well inland (I think virtually the whole of Scotland and northern England were affected).

However, it didn't really get beyond "marginal". I remember showers of wet snow during the day at Cleadon, and then the showers turned to rain and sleet as the wind changed to a NNE'ly and brought warmer air off the sea, though there were accumulations at the Durham site.

In a potent cold snap in January it should take more than a whiff of warmth from the North Sea to raise the temperature by that coast to 3-4C. Even 11 January 1999 (not generally remembered as a potent cold snap) managed to produce snow at the coast from a NNE'ly.

[Damien]

Fancy a laugh? Go check out that August chart.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

My word.

I don't know what to make of these charts. Clearly - from looking at November - they are struggling, let alone with the months August-October!

That said it's also time to move abroad if some of the runs in the longer range are to be believed:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTSea.gif

If ECPC backs this up later then we are in serious trouble, because we all know the Met Office dynamic charts are unlikely to shift from the light orange that has forever - even in spite of last winter's incorrect "colder than average" forecast - proved correct over the UK.

Edited August 4, 2006 by Damien

[summer blizzard]

Just a quick update, but there are some interesting developments on the winter front...

1) QBO is now returning to a neutral mode, this is a very good sign for winter as it indicates a weak Pacific Jet Stream

2) MEI value has now broken 0.5, this means that there is a weak El Nino, assuming the value stays between 0.5 and 1, this coreelates to a negative NAO during winter

Good times ahead...

[Damien]

2) MEI value has now broken 0.5, this means that there is a weak El Nino, assuming the value stays between 0.5 and 1, this coreelates to a negative NAO during winter

When was the last winter which fit this criteria?

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I will try and do one for the first time as a I am (slightly) more knowledgable than I was last year based largely on Teleconnections but also on previous history leading up to Autumn/Winter, my hunches for last winter were not to far off the mark so I will try and collate something for the back end of September.

[willinkent]

The set up in feb/march 2005 was fab here, we had snow on the ground for 17days consecutively and had depths upto 10inches, with drifting and days of light/moderate snow falling.... with some very heavy stuff at nights. plus temps of -13c...was a fab winter welcome to faversham..... id do anything for set-up like that but few degrees colder..... shift that snow holland had (2ft) over onto our shores pretty please...with icing on top

Edited August 5, 2006 by willinkent

[Damien]

November is now mild.

These charts are hopeless. August alone is evidence that they are significantly struggling with the current pattern. One thought that crossed my mind though was the fact that they were forecasting a quite cold winter around the May-early June period, which is of course when the Met Office make their first winter thoughts known based on the NAO.

That said the latter are still going for a possibly 2000/01-type winter so all is certainly still to play for.

[Guest Viking141]

I have to say the Meto were pretty much spot on last year.

As for this year Im quite looking forward to winter, but then living where I live I could say that about most years! That said, last year was the snowiest winter since that amazing winter of 1995 where we got snow drifts 30 feet deep in December! Since then, however, we've had a run of fairly mild winters up until last year when things seem to have gone back to "normal".

Based on the initial Meto forecast of slightly positive NAO and much increased precipitaion, with some decent Northerly blasts I could be in for a good dollop of the white stuff again this winter!

Just out of interest can anybody tell me what the NAO signal was before that wonderful winter of '95?

Cheers

Viking

Edited August 5, 2006 by Viking141

[Damien]

I've got a sneak preview of the August ECPC, and it's not a pretty picture:

Consistently above average temperatures from October-January; the cold once again stuck in Western Russia and the Eastern United States.

We are heading for a mild winter. Those charts cry out "winter 1997/98" for the Northern Hemisphere for me. A nice El Niño *looks* to even form too.

For the record, consistency:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_home_dat....con_global.gif

A coldish October was originally predicted around May-June.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have to say the Meto were pretty much spot on last year.

As for this year Im quite looking forward to winter, but then living where I live I could say that about most years! That said, last year was the snowiest winter since that amazing winter of 1995 where we got snow drifts 30 feet deep in December! Since then, however, we've had a run of fairly mild winters up until last year when things seem to have gone back to "normal".

Based on the initial Meto forecast of slightly positive NAO and much increased precipitaion, with some decent Northerly blasts I could be in for a good dollop of the white stuff again this winter!

Just out of interest can anybody tell me what the NAO signal was before that wonderful winter of '95?

Cheers

Viking

Given your description of the December I'm guessing you mean 1995/96, with its remarkable Shetland blizzard around Christmas Day. Summer 1995 was exceptionally sunny and hot, and it would seem that no region of the UK missed out that summer. October and November were certainly positive NAO months, but Winter 1995/96 was a strongly negative NAO winter.

If it's 1994/95 you're talking about, that winter was a positive NAO winter, which was mild and wet in the south, but contained potent northerlies and north-westerlies for northern areas particularly as we headed into early spring. I recall seeing that Fair Isle was snowy in both of those winters according to Dave Wheeler.

[Norrance]

Given your description of the December I'm guessing you mean 1995/96, with its remarkable Shetland blizzard around Christmas Day. Summer 1995 was exceptionally sunny and hot, and it would seem that no region of the UK missed out that summer. October and November were certainly positive NAO months, but Winter 1995/96 was a strongly negative NAO winter.

If it's 1994/95 you're talking about, that winter was a positive NAO winter, which was mild and wet in the south, but contained potent northerlies and north-westerlies for northern areas particularly as we headed into early spring. I recall seeing that Fair Isle was snowy in both of those winters according to Dave Wheeler.

It would be December 1995. A brilliant Christmas morning blizzard as far South as parts of the Scottish Central belt.

[Weather Man]

If it's 1994/95 you're talking about, that winter was a positive NAO winter, which was mild and wet in the south, but contained potent northerlies and north-westerlies for northern areas particularly as we headed into early spring. I recall seeing that Fair Isle was snowy in both of those winters according to Dave Wheeler.

Hi all,

nice talking here, i hope the nxt year will be like 94/95 , it was above avg rainfall with cold snaps and around 40's cm of snow; was a great year....

but as i see from the sites providing LRF's that nxt winter will be moderately NAO positive (from +0.5 till 1.5 ) and with moderate EL Nino developing late this fall .... that findings will be such a great winter for us in the Middle East, Turkey, Eastren europe, and south west of Russia , but alittle bit mild in western Europe and wetter in the U.K but of course u will get northern - north eastren cold snaps sometime in the winter, ESPECIALLY late winter and early spring i think ...

I wanna ask about any available LRF's of Italy, or Austria/Switzerland , Germany, if they already published or not yet ???....

Regards,

Ayman