Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[West is Best]

West Is Best, the archives on TWO and Wetter Zentrale go upto and include June 2006.

I find it ironic that the Met Office have forecast a positive NAO next winter and now

Many thanks SB. When I get some time I'll do some groundwork on this. I've also been in touch with one or two seasoned meterologists ...!

[Damien]

Today's NCEP is largely the same but with an unusual-looking August chart for Central England. September is just slightly cooler yet overall. It's interesting to see quite a few weather forecasters agreeing on this scenario at this stage. October conversely and encouragingly is looking that little bit more milder yet today. November is still below average overall especially in Spain, but December is still very mild from the west for all of the UK in a chart looking like a typical early 2000s December chart.

On the longer term, inexplicably, September is still very mild, October cold from the north-east, and November mild from the Atlantic(?).( ) December here continues to be mild but with a small cold anomaly now just starting to develop over the North Sea, though this may well be gone by tomorrow. January and February are more or less the same though there is still some quite cool/cold air just above Iceland in this chart - perhaps a February like 2001 the best case scenario at this present moment in time?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

Today's El Niño forecast shows most models agreeing on a moderate/strong El Niño for next winter, although one recent run has gone for a strong La Niña to take us into 2007, though this may well change.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTSea.gif

[West is Best]

I've posted up details of how the Azores high provided the building blocks for this summer here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...pid=745460&

[Weather Man]

Hello all,

how r u ?? i'm anew member here, i discovered this forum before 2 weeks and i liked the topics and conversations listed here ...

so i want to become afriend of u, if u don't mind ?!!

I'm from Middle East, Jordan... in a city called Madaba located south west of the capital Amman, and an elevation of approximately 800 meters ...

The weather status here in Jordan, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon is the exact contrast of that in westren-central Europe and precisely i can say Italy, Eastren France, Germany, and Austria =all the countries in that area.. but alittle relation with the U.K region ...

So for example if we have a mild weather here the exact weather will be in westren-central Europe and the places i mentioned, so it will be warm or hot.. in winters if these places have cold snowy weather, we will have extremely above average temps. and dry weather , and vice versa, r u getting that fact ?!

In the next winter 06/07 Israel had predicted before a 3 weeks from now, predicted it to be within average; October will be here warm and dry, November=Average, December= Cold and wet with Snow, January= nearly avg. or above avg. slightly, February= slightly colder than avg. and wet with snow, Finally March= warm and dry ..

Israel forecasting capabilites are good and many times it goes right especially in the LRFs ..

So, i think nxt winter in westren Europe will be near average winter but alittle bit wetter in the U.K with a slightly positive NAO index, and i think December will be hot and dry in central Europe, warm & wet conditions in the U.K, January+February will have some cold snaps in westren Europe mainly with Snow, and March will be as u dreaming it ....

I wanna mention that here in the middle east and especially in Jordan and Israel, we have an average # of Snow times yearly nearly 2 times only , but every 3-4 year we have amajor snowfalls or Blizzards; accumulation may reach 50 cm on 1000m elevation, for example in 25/2/2003 some places in Amman (the capital of Jordan) above 1100m saw 80 or 90 cm of Snow !! so i hope nxt winter will be like that of 02/03, but u will be -if that happens- extremely sad and depressed= warm & wet with much less Snow ...

Sorry for writing long !! any thoughts to share ...

Edited July 24, 2006 by Weather Man

[Polar Continental]

Hi Weather Man,

A warm welcome, there are many cold weather and snow lovers on here, come early November the winter forum will be heaving with us snow freaks, you are to right when you say us snow lovers are addicted to snow, it really does become a roller coaster ride when following the models looking for a hint of snow.

Sad anorak that I am, I even book holiday from work when the models project a significant cold spell.

Regards

Paul

[johnholmes]

yes welcome to Net Wx, I'm sure you will enjoy it and we will enjoy reading your posts about the weather in your area.

regards

John

[kippure]

Hello weatherman,

"Dont you just love it when theres a welcome on the mat" quote Chrisity Moore.

[Weather Man]

Thank u all for the warm welcome !! hoping it will not be as nxt winter

Regards,

Ayman

Edited July 24, 2006 by Weather Man

[Scribbler]

Will the heat last…………..?

I was prowling through some cricketing memories when I came across this article;

http://uk.cricinfo.com/columns/content/cur...ory/254098.html

The last few lines caught my eye –

“The two hottest summers of the 20th century were 1911 and 1976. The first was followed in 1912 by the wettest and windiest summer on record, the second by one of the coolest. You have been warned.”

[The Enforcer]

On the longer term, inexplicably,

Why do they issue concurrent forecasts that appear to contradict one another?

I wanna mention that here in the middle east and especially in Jordan and Israel, we have an average # of Snow times yearly nearly 2 times only :blink: , but every 3-4 year we have amajor snowfalls or Blizzards; accumulation may reach 50 cm on 1000m elevation, for example in 25/2/2003 some places in Amman (the capital of Jordan) above 1100m saw 80 or 90 cm of Snow !! so i hope nxt winter will be like that of 02/03, but u will be -if that happens- extremely sad and depressed= warm & wet with much less Snow ...

Another country/region which is snowier than the UK, at altitude at least. Do you get snow at lower levels?

[Ice Storm]

welcome weather man ...

in jordan there is an extreem oriented area called jubeiha .. i heared that it had a big snowfalls in 2003 that reach 90 cm in 36 hours of contiuous snow. amazing ....

i expect to have in middle east next winter a big snowfall because of continuous explosions in that area that serve as condensation nuclei ....

[Weather Man]

Another country/region which is snowier than the UK, at altitude at least. Do you get snow at lower levels?

Hi Enforcer...

Firstly our region surely isn't like the U.K or Westren Europe, cuz we are more to the south, and we belongs to the Eastren Mediterranian semi arid climate ..so the weather here is wet & cold in winter, and warm or even hot & dry in summer.. here we do get snow at level of 500m or 600m, but very rarely at the sea level as in the winter season 91/92, but there is no problem with that!! why?! cuz most of the major cities in Jordan are at the level of 500m or 600m and above, not like the U.K, the capital Amman for example it's elevation ranges between 850m and 1100m (area called Sweileh & Jubeiha =Northern Amman) ..

And in our Jordanian cities the annual rainfall is only around 350mm-600mm !! but they fall in the winter only, i.e; between November-April, between May-October there is no Major rainfalls, hardly exceeding 20 mm in total !!! ...

Welcome Ice Storm to the NW forum, there is alot of weather freaks like as

Edited July 25, 2006 by Weather Man

[Dawlish]

Hi Enforcer...

Firstly our region surely isn't like the U.K or Westren Europe, cuz we are more to the south, and we belongs to the Eastren Mediterranian semi arid climate ..so the weather here is wet & cold in winter, and warm or even hot & dry in summer.. here we do get snow at level of 500m or 600m, but very rarely at the sea level as in the winter season 91/92, but there is no problem with that!! why?! cuz most of the major cities in Jordan are at the level of 500m or 600m and above, not like the U.K, the capital Amman for example it's elevation ranges between 850m and 1100m (area called Sweileh & Jubeiha =Northern Amman) ..

And in our Jordanian cities the annual rainfall is only around 350mm-600mm !! but they fall in the winter only, i.e; between November-April, between May-October there is no Major rainfalls, hardly exceeding 20 mm in total !!! ...

Welcome Ice Storm to the NW forum, there is alot of weather freaks like as

Good to have you here Weather. Your posts give such an interesting contrast to the weather in the UK. What's your take on Global warming in the Middle East? All we get in the news is terror and violence, but I'm absolutely sure that other, global issues are far more important to you Jordanians. If you wish to reply on the GW thread, please do.

Regerds, Paul

[The Enforcer]

cuz most of the major cities in Jordan are at the level of 500m or 600m and above, not like the U.K, the capital Amman for example it's elevation ranges between 850m and 1100m (area called Sweileh & Jubeiha =Northern Amman)

Sounds like you are better off for snow then. Most of what little snow we get falls where nobody lives, apart from OON, SF and TM - and even they don't see much these days. At least we do get some warm weather occasionally in summer, but it's usually too humid.

[Weather Man]

Good to have you here Weather. Your posts give such an interesting contrast to the weather in the UK. What's your take on Global warming in the Middle East? All we get in the news is terror and violence, but I'm absolutely sure that other, global issues are far more important to you Jordanians. If you wish to reply on the GW thread, please do.

Regerds, Paul

Hi Dawlish,

There are terrorists and violence in the Middle East as any place of the world, but now it seems to be our turn !! all of countries around the world will have or had violence in their history or future .... but the people here are very kind and friendly, but the media always concentrates on the bad things or news to bring spectators or readers for it, it is just a political issue, u know ... but here of course there is the bad people and the good people like any place of the world, ask any European who came once to the Middle East or in exact Jordan, they will tell u how kind and the hospitality we have ...

We love the rain here very much !! and more imortantly Snow, even the government here issues a snowy day as aday off or holiday when the snow just start to fall ...

I'm alittle busy these days of our medicine exams, but when i get free of them, i'll tell u about the Global Warming issue here in the Middle East ...

Regards,

Ayman

[Dawlish]

Hi Dawlish,

There are terrorists and violence in the Middle East as any place of the world, but now it seems to be our turn !! all of countries around the world will have or had violence in their history or future .... but the people here are very kind and friendly, but the media always concentrates on the bad things or news to bring spectators or readers for it, it is just a political issue, u know ... but here of course there is the bad people and the good people like any place of the world, ask any European who came once to the Middle East or in exact Jordan, they will tell u how kind and the hospitality we have ...

quote]

Regards,

Ayman

Absolutely right. We had homegrown terrorists in the IRA for a long time. I had some close Syrian friends at University and I met the descendants of many Jewish emigrees during my time in the USA, who had worked/played (football) in Israel. To a person they have been incredibly friendly and generous!

I wish our government had the same appreciation of what really counts for people, as yours seems to do with the snow. What a great idea. I look forward to hearing about some GW issues! Good luck with the exams - that'll be my youngest in 2 years time!

Best wishes, Paul

Edited July 26, 2006 by Dawlish

[Osbourne One-Nil]

and even they don't see much these days

You're not wrong.

[summer blizzard]

Firstly, I will start by saying that this is my first attempt at a very detailed seasonal forecast, while I consider my other forecasts satisfactory, I believe that this method maybe more reliable.

I am going to base this forecast on observed teleconnection patterns and analogues in order to make a seasonal forecast.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/i...s/tele_index.nh

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

As you can see, including the QBO, there are nine main teleconnection patterns to take into account because the Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere and Pacific transition patterns are not leading modes during the autumn months. I will also not be including the Polar Eurasian Pattern, the East Pacific/North America pattern or the East Atlantic Pattern because they have not been leading modes during this summer. That leaves the following teleconnection patterns to consider in my autumn forecast:

QBO

NAO

WP

PNA

SCA

EA/WR

The QBO played a major part in the latter half of 2005 and was strongly negative which played a major part in displacing the Azores High into Europe by effectively displacing pressure systems eastward, with a westerly QBO playing quite a strong part during the summer, this alone would favour a European Trough over a European Ridge during the Autumn.

The West Pacific Oscillation did not play a strong part during the spring however it has played a strong part this summer in maintaining a Trough in the western Pacific, this alone could cause a stronger Jet Stream during early autumn due to the continent retaining a lot of heat and causing a fairly large thermal gradient however as the continent cools, the thermal gradient should weaken, for the British Isles, that would favour early Autumn ridge and a late Autumn Trough over Europe.

During this summer, the PNA has played a major part in maintaining a negative PNA, which is characteristic of a trough/ridge pattern over the United States of America; this is serving to encourage a northerly tracking Jet Stream and another downstream ridge over Europe, favoring a warm autumn for the British Isles.

The NAO has played a major part throughout 2006 however there has being no clear signal towards a negative or positive NAO, using the NAO alone, I would say that the chances of a mild/cold Autumn are equal.

The East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern has played a major part this summer in maintaining a trough to the west of the British Isles, I would expect this to continue, encouraging a more unsettled pattern during autumn.

The Scandinavian pattern has played a moderate part during this summer however it has been forced by other teleconnection patterns and has actually been negative during the summer, if this were to continue I would favour a European Trough.

When we add all these factors together, I think that the chances are that September will be unsettled but above average, while October and November are both unsettled and below average, this is because teleconnection patterns strongly favour a European Trough during late Autumn, during early Autumn, teleconnection patterns are fairly balanced towards heat or cold.

THESE ARE ONLY MY PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, MY FULL AUTUMN FORECAST WILL BE RELAEASED DURING MID AUGUST.

[summer blizzard]

In the same way that i compared the extent of the Polar Cell during mid-July and found that 2006 had the largest Polar Cell during mid-summer sice at least 1999, i am going to campare the size of the Polar Cell on the 1st of August from 2006 onwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120000801.gif

As you can see, the Polar Cell does not even extent to the south of Greenland indicating a strong Ferral Cell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120010801.gif

As you can see, 2001 had a much larger Polar Cell extending well into Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120020801.gif

As you can see, 2002 had a very small Polar Cell and observed the warmest northern hemisphere summer on record (i think).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120030801.gif

As you can see, 2003 had the Polar Cell just larger than 2000 however, despite the small size of the Poar Cell, the Polar Cell was stronger than any of the previous three years, the Jet Stream was also beaurificated.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120040801.gif

As you can see, the Polar Cell extended well into the mid-Atlantc which cause the large thermal gradiant during August 2004.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050801.gif

As you can see, the Polar Cell did not even extend into Greenland however the Jet Stream was beaurificated to the west and east of Greenland, maintining high pressure over Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m4.gif

As you can see, 2006 sees the Polar Cell extending into wetern Russia, maintaining a cold pool there, the Jet Stream is also beaurificated and the surface high over Greenland could easily allow the Polar Cell to extend into the Mid-Atlantic.

In conclusion, at this stage, 2001 had the largest Polar Cell however 2006 has the most havily beaurificated Jet Stream, therefore while i would consider 2001 the best setup at this stage, 2006 has the highest potential to overtake 2001 at my next comparison on August 15th.

The GFS6z maintains a upper air -10C cold pool over Greenland from the 9th August onwards, this is something that needs to be watched.

Also, i just though that i would say that the GFS6z was programming a sustained -10C upper cold pool over Greenland from the 9th August onward.

[summer blizzard]

It seems that conditions in the Arctic are much more faviourable for a cold pool to build than 2005 because a -10C upper air cold pool is expected to build on August 4th, this is 15 days ahead of 2005.

[summer blizzard]

I have just looked at some data, 1947 has the biggest temperature difference between winter and summer, with a temperature difference of 15.9C, i think that the difference is as big as it can get, and with this summer almost certain to have a CET above 17C, i think that we can rule out a winter with a CET of less than 1C.

[summer blizzard]

While this chart has apsolutely no chance of occuring, the GFS6z shows the -15C upper air isotherm on the 16th August.

[Damien]

While this chart has apsolutely no chance of occuring, the GFS6z shows the -15C upper air isotherm on the 16th August.

What was the earliest appearance of this last year?

[summer blizzard]

The first -10C isotherm in 2005 occured on the 19th August, i will have to check for the -15C isotherm.

[Damien]

Apparently Ian Currie was on TV on Channel 4 over the weekend warning of winter 2006/07 being "very dry", and that this will worsen the drought situation into 2007. He is expecting the blocking pattern of present to persist into the earlier part of next year at least.

Did anyone else see this? The programme was called "30 Mins" and can it be YouTubed?