Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[Anti-Mild]

Apparently Ian Currie was on TV on Channel 4 over the weekend warning of winter 2006/07 being "very dry", and that this will worsen the drought situation into 2007. He is expecting the blocking pattern of present to persist into the earlier part of next year at least.

Did anyone else see this? The programme was called "30 Mins" and can it be YouTubed?

On the plus side very dry could also be very cold, depending on the positioning of HP's !

[Damien]

On the plus side very dry could also be very cold, depending on the positioning of HP's !

That's what I was thinking anyway: kind of like last winter (2005/06). I would take the Met Office's "milder and wetter weakly positive NAO winter" anytime over 2005/06, as at least such a season can offer us the potentials of 2000/01-1990/91 (probably at the very, very best) given recent years.

It's Ian Currie vs. Met Office folks. Who has done better so far this year?

Edited July 31, 2006 by Damien

[Thundery wintry showers]

The main issue with the current pattern- as we saw last winter- is that while the recurring Scandinavian Highs are far east enough to bring hot thundery plumes up from the south and southeast during the summer, they are also too far east to bring anything wintry of note during the winter. Except if you live in Hastings.

The trademark of snowy Scandinavian Highs is that they ridge westwards, and are not battling against low pressures in the GIN corridor.

For example, take Kevin's example of January 1972 and compare it with January 2006:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119720127.gif

Note in the buildup: no dominant LP cell over Iceland/Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119720130.gif

Westward ridging Scandinavian High- snowy ENE flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060121.gif

Icelandic cyclogenesis keeping the Scandinavian High at bay.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060123.gif

No easterly.

[Damien]

I don't rate this very much, but here's ECPC's forecast developing into winter:

As you can see, a very negative NAO scenario is slightly preferred. But it is every year. :unsure:

Here are also the monthly thoughts for August-early November:

With November almost 100% unlikely to come off like that, the above forecasts are very bad news IMHO.

Edited July 31, 2006 by Damien

[Anti-Mild]

I wonder if the GH will be more of a player this year than last year. Last year it was omnipresent until when it counted most whereas this year it has been mostly absent.

[summer blizzard]

The first -15C isotherm occured on September 2nd, in 2005.

Anti-Mild, the Greenland High has been a player since February, it did collapse during June however it has begun rebuilding and is forecast to keep building.

That's what I was thinking anyway: kind of like last winter (2005/06). I would take the Met Office's "milder and wetter weakly positive NAO winter" anytime over 2005/06, as at least such a season can offer us the potentials of 2000/01-1990/91 (probably at the very, very best) given recent years.

It's Ian Currie vs. Met Office folks. Who has done better so far this year?

While both of the winters you have recited were weakly positive in terms of the NAO, the 1991 example was a cold winter, the Met Office are predicting a mild winte, therefore 2001 is the most likely anologue.

[Norrance]

'While both of the winters you have recited were weakly positive in terms of the NAO, the 1991 example was a cold winter, the Met Office are predicting a mild winte, therefore 2001 is the most likely anologue'

2001 was actually the last good Winter we had for snow up here. A repeat of some of the North Easterlies that occurred in Feb and early March 2001 would be most welcome.

[Damien]

'While both of the winters you have recited were weakly positive in terms of the NAO, the 1991 example was a cold winter, the Met Office are predicting a mild winte, therefore 2001 is the most likely anologue'

2001 was actually the last good Winter we had for snow up here. A repeat of some of the North Easterlies that occurred in Feb and early March 2001 would be most welcome.

Feb. 2005 for me after that. Tell me as well did that or October 30, 2000(!) deliver much for your area?

Incidentally TWS makes a good point about the Scandinavian High for most of England - but this doesn't consider what my area, North Yorkshire, and Kent went through in February-March 2005, which was indeed in close proximity of last winter, and also what parts of the South-East and East reportedly (although I know it to be true - that's just a figure of speech) had in late December 2005.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That's what I was thinking anyway: kind of like last winter (2005/06). I would take the Met Office's "milder and wetter weakly positive NAO winter" anytime over 2005/06, as at least such a season can offer us the potentials of 2000/01-1990/91 (probably at the very, very best) given recent years.

It's Ian Currie vs. Met Office folks. Who has done better so far this year?

I'll go for Ian Currie as I too expect the blocking to occur BUT it will generaly be in the 'wrong' place for the UK for cold. Summer Blizzard quoted somewhere that he is not forecasting the cooldown until after the next solar max in 2011...I agree with that.

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

Feb 2005 was a good example of what I was talking about with the westward-extending high:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050223.gif

High pressure all the way from Scandinavia to SE Greenland.

As for late December 2005, I recall that (together with a couple of intrusions late Feb/early Mar 2006) being one of a few occasions when the Scandinavian High did just make it far enough west:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051228.gif

Very little in it, but it was just enough to give some parts a reasonable cold snap (in the coastal area of Tyne & Wear it was the first significant lasting "easterly" snow event since March 2001; those of February 2005 produced significant lasting accumulations only inland)

[summer blizzard]

Just found this chart, it shows below average pressure across the Azores.

[Norrance]

Feb. 2005 for me after that. Tell me as well did that or October 30, 2000(!) deliver much for your area?

Incidentally TWS makes a good point about the Scandinavian High for most of England - but this doesn't consider what my area, North Yorkshire, and Kent went through in February-March 2005, which was indeed in close proximity of last winter, and also what parts of the South-East and East reportedly (although I know it to be true - that's just a figure of speech) had in late December 2005.

Sorry. Can't remember Oct 3, 2000 and have filed away weather diary from 2000 in the loft. Late Feb until mid March this year was better here than 2005 though we did get some snowfalls then also. On the few occasions the Scandinavian high has ridged towards us in recent Winters it has tended to come to close to us to bring anything but cold and light wintry / snow showers.

[The Enforcer]

but this doesn't consider what my area, North Yorkshire, and Kent went through in February-March 2005, which was indeed in close proximity of last winter, and also what parts of the South-East and East reportedly had in late December 2005.

Reef lives in the north-east and he'll tell you that both periods were poor for snowfall. Again, only localised snowfalls. Crap, unless you can travel to them.

Feb 2005 was a good example of what I was talking about with the westward-extending high:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050223.gif

High pressure all the way from Scandinavia to SE Greenland.

When you get the synoptic right, the cold air isn't there and vice versa.

Summer Blizzard quoted somewhere that he is not forecasting the cooldown until after the next solar max in 2011...I agree with that.

I seem to recall around 03/04 there was a lot of talk of 06/07 being the big one. I guess it's always a few years away - the ultimate in 'shuffling'.

Edited July 31, 2006 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

Reef lives in the north-east and he'll tell you that both periods were poor for snowfall. Again, only localised snowfalls. Crap, unless you can travel to them.

Not true, i live in the north east and both events produced good snowfalls, especially late February 2005. I believe that Reef lives close to the coast which has a warming influence.

I seem to recall around 03/04 there was a lot of talk of 06/07 being the big one. I guess it's always a few years away - the ultimate in 'shuffling'.

Not true, they were reffering to the current solar minima and i do expect a cold winter however from next winter, i expect the warming trend to kick in until the Gliessburg Minima kicks in after 2011.

[shuggee]

Just found this chart, it shows below average pressure across the Azores.

And suggesting no nasty Bartlett?

[The Enforcer]

Not true, i live in the north east and both events produced good snowfalls, especially late February 2005. I believe that Reef lives close to the coast which has a warming influence.

Like I say, localised snowfalls. If you live half way up a hill on the eastern side you'll have done ok. If not, it was pants.

Not true, they were reffering to the current solar minima and i do expect a cold winter however from next winter, i expect the warming trend to kick in until the Gliessburg Minima kicks in after 2011.

Well if the imminent minima turns out to be mild, as the Meto are forecasting, then one could argue they don't have much of an effect and I wouldn't hold up much hope for the 2011 one. However, too early to tell.

TWS - one for you:

Was the average track of a Low Pressure system across the Atlantic during last winter (I leave definition of winter at your discretion) a material departure from the increasingly northward pattern of travel, year on year?

Edited July 31, 2006 by The Enforcer

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sorry. Can't remember Oct 3, 2000 and have filed away weather diary from 2000 in the loft. Late Feb until mid March this year was better here than 2005 though we did get some snowfalls then also. On the few occasions the Scandinavian high has ridged towards us in recent Winters it has tended to come to close to us to bring anything but cold and light wintry / snow showers.

30 October 2000 at certain locations:

Cleadon, Tyne & Wear (where I was): rain at 3C, but snow was reported further inland.

Leeds: wet snow at 1C, light coating of snow occurred very briefly

Lancaster: 2cm snow cover was reported at 0900 GMT, with the temperature falling to 0C.

I recall that one irony of the comparison between Lancaster and Tyneside was that Lancaster seems more prone to out-of-season snowfalls, but during the winter quarter, Tyneside has, on average, considerably more snow.

TWS - one for you:

Was the average track of a Low Pressure system across the Atlantic during last winter (I leave definition of winter at your discretion) a material departure from the increasingly northward pattern of travel, year on year?

Sorry, I can't provide concrete data- my dissertation only covered the years up to 2002! However, from what I remember, the trend towards a northerly jet emphatically continued in 2005/06, as we saw a lot of high pressure over Britain, central Europe and Scandinavia, a notable lack of a southerly jet, and frequent depressions passing at 60-70N and pumping tropical air into the Arctic interior. However, this all changed by March, when depressions started taking an anomalously southerly track.

[The Enforcer]

Sorry, I can't provide concrete data- my dissertation only covered the years up to 2002! However, from what I remember, the trend towards a northerly jet emphatically continued in 2005/06, as we saw a lot of high pressure over Britain, central Europe and Scandinavia, a notable lack of a southerly jet, and frequent depressions passing at 60-70N and pumping tropical air into the Arctic interior. However, this all changed by March, when depressions started taking an anomalously southerly track.

Surely, after all your hard graft, the bods at Lancaster Uni might let you have access to some data? Thanks anyway.

[reef]

Like I say, localised snowfalls. If you live half way up a hill on the eastern side you'll have done ok. If not, it was pants.

The falls were indeed very localised. SB is correct that I live close to the coast (around 10 miles by crow), however that day in February 2005 I did have a drive around in search for snow nearby and had no luck until I reached higher ground. Areas well inland only had sleet just as I had here, the event was just too marginal for lowland snow. I imagine in Damien and SB's case being inland and around 200m in elevation is what did it, but the majority of lowland areas outside of Kent recieved nothing.

It was just another case of the synoptics being right but there not being a substantial enough cold pool to give lowland snow. The story of the last few years has seen December/January pump mild air into the Arctic and then everything settle down in mid-February when there is no significant cold air to tap into. The Arctic then slowly recovers back to average temperatures during March and April, which often means northerly and easterly outbreaks have had more bite to them during this time.

The average temperatures in Svalbard show this clearly:

http://www.svalbard.com/weather.html

Notice in the paricularly blocked winter years here of 2000-onwards how mild it was there in January and February, only for March and April to be closer to average. Then compare years such as 1989/1994/1997/1998 (more zonal winters here) which had a mean depression track much further southwards and how those years had a cold Jan/Feb but milder March/April.

The same thing goes for precipitation, where more blocked winters here mean a more northerly depression track, hence Svalbard recieved higher levels of precipitation.

Edited July 31, 2006 by reef

[The Enforcer]

I used to have a link to a website where the author had compiled a survey of annual snowfalls rated on a scale of very snowy, snowy, average, below average, virtually snowless or similar. It was a historic record compiled by some boffin up to the 1970's and the author had maintained it since then. I remember it being updated for winter 04/05, I think. hope this jogs someone's memory who still has the link.

[Thundery wintry showers]

http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

I think that's it.

I also came up with my own classification for the winters dating back to 1950, based on various data sources and the synoptic charts, which is currently on my hard drive.

[The Enforcer]

http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

I think that's it.

I also came up with my own classification for the winters dating back to 1950, based on various data sources and the synoptic charts, which is currently on my hard drive.

You are the oracle of all things Winter. I have e-mailed him to see if he plans to update for the last two winters. Look forward to seeing your data too.

EDIT: Now that's what I call service. A response already:

Yes I will update when i've looked at the data, as usual it seems to have been

pushed to the back of the queue. Thanks for reminding me.

Regards

Dave

Edited July 31, 2006 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

Thundry Wintry Showers, the snow event of October 2000 actaully dumped about 4cm of snow in my location however it had melted by lunchtime, i remember because i was going to school, and stuck my ruler onto the car to measure the snow depth.

[Damien]

Thundry Wintry Showers, the snow event of October 2000 actaully dumped about 4cm of snow in my location however it had melted by lunchtime, i remember because i was going to school, and stuck my ruler onto the car to measure the snow depth.

16 or so inches on high hills near my house. B)

Super-micro-climate. Gone by lunchtime.

[Damien]

Okay, so there is a hot August, a cool-ish September and a clear cold November, but

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

Dammit Bliar.