August CET

[parmenides3]

There's a really tify NOA pattern building for the start of the month on the charts, so; more continental influence, similar to July, cooler evenings late in the month, = 18.3C.

It's just a guess, really.

[kold weather]

Its funny because the moment that people go for a very high CET we'll probably record a more normal CET and the high CET's wil lbe too low, always seems to happen!

The first 5 days are certaintly going to much cooler then the first 5 of July. Also remember everyone that the second half of the month wil lsee the artic regions starting to cool so any northerlies at this stage will start to have a little more bite to them. generally if the first 10 days are not hot it'll be hard to get a CET much above 18.5C.

[Weather-history]

I'll have a guess of 17.8C

Any bets that the August Bank Holiday (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) will be disappointing as compared to the rest of the summer.

The summers of 1976, 1983, 1995 and 2003 produced August Bank Holidays that were disappointing ie not as hot, more cloud etc as compared to what happened with the rest of the summer.

Edited July 26, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Bottesford]

I'll have a guess of 17.8C

Any bets that the August Bank Holiday (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) will be disappointing as compared to the rest of the summer.

The summers of 1976, 1983, 1995 and 2003 produced August Bank Holidays that were disappointing ie not as hot, more cloud etc as compared to what happened with the rest of the summer.

Yeah it's typical that! Maybe if we had more bank holidays in summer where they should be we'd have less washout weekends! The current BH weekends all fall during generally unsettled periods during spring or winter (when settled or not - too cold anyway).

[MP-R]

19.0C, mainly dry

[kippure]

18.1

[senior ridge]

fairly flat jet, some AzH ridging so I guess 17.3c

[Scribbler]

2000 - 16.6

2001 - 16.8

2002 - 17.0

2003 - 18.3

2004 - 17.6

2005 - 16.2

Average 17.1 + 0.5 for luck and good judgment!

I can see no reason why the general warming trend shouldn't continue, despite last year’s figure.

My forecast is therefore 17.6

I'll go with 17.5C but i may well drop or rise this depending.

:lol: :lol: Oh yeah! It's alright for the Mods to adjust their figures whereas we mortals have to stick by our errors! :lol: :lol:

[cheeky_monkey]

im going 4 less settled and cooler august esp last week

my guess 16.4c

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

[Sunshine]

17.4

[Anti-Mild]

I'll go for 17.0c. Rainfall and sunshine both slightly above average.

[SteveB]

15.7c for me.

Edited July 28, 2006 by SteveB

[Terminal Moraine]

As I was spectacularly wrong in both June and July I'll go for 17.3c and see what happens.

T.M

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

At 17.9C I did not expect to undercook my July CET by such a wide margin.

I can't imagine a below average summer month but nor do I think we'll have July again. So I'll put August down for just below my July figure. 17.7C.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

As AF says, July's CET was higher than most (or all, i'll have a look I think) expected.

August at the moment looks like having an average to below average start, however, nothing exceptional (like the above average temps in July).

After the first week (approx), I can see some above average temps kicking in again, which will wipe out the possible below average start.

So, for August, its going to depend on the second half, which I suspect will be average to above average. Therefore for August, i'm going to pump for a:

17.8oC

[kold weather]

Indeed Chris the key is gonig to be the second half of August however worth remmebering we are now in the first month where the month is cooling down by as we go along so if we are to get any more so called super eat, its gotta be in the next 15 days before the artic under-goes the start of its cooling and the graidiants tighten.

It's for this reason that the jet is seemingly getting a little more active then it has been over recent weeks.

The first week looks very average to me thanks to a short northerly, beyond that and it depends whether the Azores high wants to show its face or not.

[stormchaser1]

afternoon everyone

My August CET guess is for 18.5c

nigel

[Roger J Smith]

Put me in for 19.4 because there's more heat coming in due course.

[Vince]

i'll go with 20.4 flushing the summer of 76 down the toilet once and for all

[The PIT]

i'll go with 20.4 flushing the summer of 76 down the toilet once and for all

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Stormchaser1: 18.5C

Scorcher: 18.6C

Snowprincess: 18.7C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

Roger J Smith: 19.4C

Vince: 20.4C

Just looked at some data, and the first seven days of August may give a CET 0.4C below average and looking at the available data, i cannot see a hot spell occuring during the first half of August, infact, i am veiwing a potential cold spell around the 12th which i suspect would cause frost in Scotland, maybe even lowland Scotland.

Edited July 30, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Scorcher]

I'll go for 18.6C- it will be very warm but not quite like July.

Edited July 30, 2006 by Scorcher

[sandstorm2]

17.8C

SS2

[kold weather]

The first ten days will probably average out as a touch above average but probably not by alot, mind you much depend on how cloud comes up with the Azores high.

If the first 10 days don't have a major heatwave then already a CEt above 19C is looking highly highly unlikely given that on average temps start to cool over Europe a touch and it'd be quite hard to average much above 18C for the second half of August.

By the way, I'm hoping this month is still pretty warm, I went for a CET that was more then 1C above average which lets not forget is still a fair amount above average and you have to be very brave to gofor a below average month given how much heat has been pumped to our north over the last month.