August CET

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's still early days- the current CET stands at approximately 16.8C, so we are, at least, on line for my 16.9C prediction.

A warm second half could easily cancel out a rather cool first half- like happened last year, for example. June 2005 was an even more extreme case- the first half was the coolest, along with 2001, since 1995, then the second half was the warmest since 1976. Then March 2005 was even more extreme.

[Guest Mike W]

Cool or cold conditions never hang around for long at all these days so I would expect to see a return to some awful hot and humid conditions after this cooler period that has been forecast. Wouldn't surprise me if that happened anyway.

Edited August 5, 2006 by Mike W

[Weather-history]

I think something that needs pointing out is that we have now reached the time of year where the first half of the month is on average warmer than the second half of the month. Yes folks, we are now on the cooling slope.

[The PIT]

I think something that needs pointing out is that we have now reached the time of year where the first half of the month is on average warmer than the second half of the month. Yes folks, we are now on the cooling slope.

How many Septembers have been warmer than August????

[Weather-history]

How many Septembers have been warmer than August????

8

1729, 1737, 1750, 1784, 1865, 1890, 1891, 1956

Two of those were the warmest Septembers on record: 1729 and 1865

[Thundery wintry showers]

September 1999 was warmer than August 1999 in Cleadon according to my records, entirely due to a higher average maximum, so it has happened locally in recent years.

[Scorcher]

I think something that needs pointing out is that we have now reached the time of year where the first half of the month is on average warmer than the second half of the month. Yes folks, we are now on the cooling slope.

Yes, but it's a difference between the two halves that is usually far less pronounced than September or May. With still a lot of heat around on the Continent in the second half of August it's quite feasible that the second half could be warmer than the first, and I'm sure it has happened on many occasions.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It happened last year; I think it may also have happened in 1996 (though I'm not certain on that one).

Indeed, in 2001 October was locally warmer than September (!!), on my Cleadon records it came out just 0.1C cooler, so you can get upsets like that. However, it is true to say that on average, the second half of August is cooler than the first half.

[Weather-history]

It happened last year; I think it may also have happened in 1996 (though I'm not certain on that one).

Indeed, in 2001 October was locally warmer than September (!!), on my Cleadon records it came out just 0.1C cooler, so you can get upsets like that. However, it is true to say that on average, the second half of August is cooler than the first half.

August 1984: I'm pretty sure there was a notable difference between the second half compared to the first half. If I was asked an August where the second half was warmer than the first half, August 1984 be top of my list.

[summer blizzard]

As the CET is currently 16.8C according to Phillip Eden, high maxima will most likely push it to 17.2C by the end of monday, afterward, the CET should drop away sharply, so that it may be between 15.2C and 15.5C on the 15th.

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the currentf GFS by the 10th the CET will be around 16.4. It will take a lot of heat from there tfo get thes CET above 18c...

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

Snow-Man2006: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Supercell: 16.6C

Shuggee: 16.7C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Bilz: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Thundry Wintry Showers: 16.9C

Osbourne One-Nil: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

Beng: 17C

HighPressure: 17C

The Abominable Snowman: 17C

PhilipEden: 17.1C

Reef: 17.2C

Drfeelgood: 17.2C

TinyBill: 17.2C

Steve M: 17.2C

Hammer: 17.2C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Mr Sleet: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Snowyowl9: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Dawlish: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Joneseye: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Jackone: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Timmy H: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Stormchaser1: 18.5C

Scorcher: 18.6C

Snowprincess: 18.7C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

Roger J Smith: 19.4C

Vince: 20.4C

Assuming that my predictions are coreect, then i would rule out a CET above 18C.

Edited August 5, 2006 by summer blizzard

[MP-R]

Currently 19.2C as my CET. May lift by 0.1-0.2C by the end of today as I am expecting to reach 27C this afternoon.

A question for anyone to answer - are there likely to be any more heatwaves in August or even September like the late one last year?

[West is Best]

Assuming that my predictions are coreect, then i would rule out a CET above 18C.

'Rule out' remains a rather strong phrase to use SB.

17.2C up to yesterday on Philip's measure, and with another extremely warm night last night and a very hot day today we're likely to see the CET pushing 18C before the cool-down. Yes, it may fall away next week but I just don't see how it's possible to rule out anything with only 16% of the month gone.

[MP-R]

20.0C is my CET.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 18.1C, the CET should be around average by the 15th.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Nothing on this for a few days. I dont use any other CET type figure, but Net-Wx is still approx +0.8oC above average.

Even taking into account the 00z run, I cant see August being hugely (although slightly is quite possible) below average month.

Still, it looks possible of being a complete contrast to July (and June to a lesser extent).

[reef]

Nothing on this for a few days. I dont use any other CET type figure, but Net-Wx is still approx +0.8oC above average.

Even taking into account the 00z run, I cant see August being hugely (although slightly is quite possible) below average month.

Still, it looks possible of being a complete contrast to July (and June to a lesser extent).

Phillip Eden also has the average on 17.6°C (+1.0). At this time of the year, even northerlies are hardly cool; especially with the large amount of heat sent northwards during July. If it continues through to the end of the month, expect it to have more impact though - mainly as the airmasses begin to cool and the sun weakens. The coolest summer days also occur under cloud and rain, something which despite this apparent change is still rather rare.

[MP-R]

So far, in Yatton, it has started at 16.7C then went up to 20.5C by Wednesday but is sinking again and is now at 19.9C.

[Weather-history]

Any bets that a maximum of at least 30.0C+ will not be reached this August, anywhere, (Channel Islands included)? The last time that happened was August 1993.

[Nick H]

Any bets that a maximum of at least 30.0C+ will not be reached this August, anywhere, (Channel Islands included)? The last time that happened was August 1993.

The last time a summer month failed to achieve 30.0C+ was way back in...July 2004. And August 2006 recorded just one day of 30.0C+ ... the 31st!

Edited August 11, 2006 by Nick H

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm guessing he means specifically in the month of August- and indeed, I can't remember any Augusts after 1993 where 30C was not reached.

[Weather-history]

I'm guessing he means specifically in the month of August- and indeed, I can't remember any Augusts after 1993 where 30C was not reached.

Thats right TWS, I was referring to August.

I think 30.1C was recorded at the London Weather Centre on the 29th of July 2004, although not an official site.

Edited August 11, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Nick H]

I'm guessing he means specifically in the month of August- and indeed, I can't remember any Augusts after 1993 where 30C was not reached.

Yes I accept that, I was just adding info

30.1C at Clerkenwell was indeed reached on 29 July 2004...but only 29.9C at Heathrow. RHS Wisley also recorded 29.9C that day.

Other Augusts not to record 30.0C+ in recent times are 1980-82, 1985-88 and 1991-92.

August 2000 is interesting: 31C was recorded at Jersey on the 25th but as far as I'm aware the highest maximum on the mainland was only 29.8C at Southampton (is Soton still an official station? It was in June 1976, of course). I'll have a look at that tomorrow.

Edited August 12, 2006 by Nick H

[Bham Chris]

Any bets that a maximum of at least 30.0C+ will not be reached this August, anywhere, (Channel Islands included)? The last time that happened was August 1993.

I'm not going to bet on it but it would be sensational if we failed to hit it after the very warm June and exceptional July,that would make it quite a turnaround.But I can see a 30C somewhere towards the end of the month.