August CET

[kold weather]

Still looking to me like the CET will be close to average which given the amount of heat that was pumped northwards during July is actually quite impressive. Exactly where the CEt ends up is dependant on when the fronts push in from the Lp cells, but I suspect either way we will see a CET within 0.5C either side of the average.

[The PIT]

Well the high mins are helping to keep us above average although it's not fooling the Davis and the maxs have tended to be short lived.

[WBSH]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET has fallen to 16.8C.

... and whats the average CET for August, if thats not a "primative" question! lol seriously though I would like to know so I can compare.

WBSH

[acbrixton]

... and whats the average CET for August, if thats not a "primative" question! lol seriously though I would like to know so I can compare.

WBSH

16.2c on the 1971-2000 (not sure if this is Manley or Hadley though: too idle to look it up!)

Regards

ACB

[Thundery wintry showers]

I doubt that the Manley and Hadley averages differ when averaged over a 30-year period (there may be 0.1C differences here and there, but the Hadley figures themselves are often quoted differently to within 0.1C- e.g. the 1961-90 June average is variously quoted as 14.1 or 14.2)

For August, 1971-2000 is definitely 16.2.

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest GFS run August will end at 16.5c. Or 0.3c above the 71-000 average or 0.7c above the 61-90 average.

That would mean the summer CET average will stand at 17.3c which is 1.7c above the 71-000 average and 2.0c above the 61-90 average. It would equal 2003 as being the fourth hottest summer in the series with 1976 (1st), 1995 (2nd), and 1826 (3rd)

I think the GFS may bes over-doing it. I would say a CET closer to 15.8c would be the outcome and so just a shade cooler than 2003.

[summer blizzard]

The current CET is still 16.8C according to Phillip Eden.

[parmenides3]

There's a really tify NOA pattern building for the start of the month on the charts, so; more continental influence, similar to July, cooler evenings late in the month, = 18.3C.

It's just a guess, really.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: . That was me. That'll teach me to butt in! Nothing to do with CET, but the mean in my back garden for August so far is 19.3C. Even allowing for urban impacts, it's still reasonably warm. 16C looks like a good bet, now.

P

[summer blizzard]

The latest GFS12z looks as though it would give a CET around 16C, which is slightly below average.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 16.7C, which is 0.5C above the monthly average, the CET should drop steadily until the end of the month however it also looks as though minima could dip into single figures, therefore i would not rule out a CET slightly above 15.5C, making this the coolest August since 1993.

Could somebody post the daily CET figures needed to reach everybodys CET predictions.

[Stratos Ferric]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 16.7C, which is 0.5C above the monthly average, the CET should drop steadily until the end of the month however it also looks as though minima could dip into single figures, therefore i would not rule out a CET slightly above 15.5C, making this the coolest August since 1993.

Could somebody post the daily CET figures needed to reach everybodys CET predictions.

I suspect we won't end up quite that low SB. To get from where we are now to 15.5 would require daily temps 3c below par all the way in from here. That looks unlikely. There's still plenty of scope for max temps around 20C plus early next week; that would require minima around 6C below par, i.e. down to 6C or so to compensate in order to reach the net effect of 3C below par; I don't see it getting that cold. I'd say something in the range 16.2-16.4 is looking likeliest.

[Anti-Mild]

Philip Eden has the CET up to the 22nd at 16.7c, 0.3c above the rolling 71-00 average. Looking at the 00z GFS I would estimate a final CET value for August of around 16.4c, only marginally (0.2c) above the 71-00 average and the coolest August since 1999.

What a turnaround after July :blush: ! I suspect that if there hadn't been so much hot air circulated Northward we may have been looking at the coolest August since 1993 (14.6c).

Edited August 23, 2006 by Anti-Mild

[summer blizzard]

A CET of 16.4C would make August 2006 the coolest August since August 2005, not August 1999, August 2005 had an average CET of 16.2C and would of been below average had it not been for a 30C maximum temperature on the 31st.

[Anti-Mild]

A CET of 16.4C would make August 2006 the coolest August since August 2005, not August 1999, August 2005 had an average CET of 16.2C and would of been below average had it not been for a 30C maximum temperature on the 31st.

:blush:

I can't believe I didn't remember that! What a doofus :lol: !!

Thanks for keeping me right SB!

AM

[Stratos Ferric]

Philip Eden has the CET up to the 22nd at 16.7c, 0.3c above the rolling 71-00 average. Looking at the 00z GFS I would estimate a final CET value for August of around 16.4c, only marginally (0.2c) above the 71-00 average and the coolest August since 1999.

What a turnaround after July ! I suspect that if there hadn't been so much hot air circulated Northward we may have been looking at the coolest August since 1993 (14.6c).

Mmmm, there's been a few posts like this recently, leading to some spectacularly early ramping about sudden cooling, a cold winter ahead etc. etc. It's interesting, given that even you are acknowledging that August is going to turn out around average, that people are spotting a sudden cooling, rather than a view that things are simply returning to normal. Yes, things are cooler than they were in July, but then July WAS the hottest month on record.

I uncork it time and over, but the first tutor I ever had at college was one of the preminent climatologists not just in the UK, but in the world, and I vaguely recall asking him in one early tutorial what he made of a recent run of weather. He smiled and simply said "well, what I always say is that things average out in the end". Whilst being a statement of the bleeding obvious, it's a telling point that we sometimes overlook; a sustained run of weather (say more than a month) of any type is highly unusual in these parts, be that blocked or mobile. Furthermore, after a sustained run outside of average, there usually follows a correction later - witness recent rainfall after a long dry period.

After 2-3 fairly changeable weeks it would be quite something if the current run kept going for much longer. I haven't been watching the jet forecasts religiously, but there are signs now of it starting to get unstable - the GFS projection for Tuesday is remarkable, with an almost symmetrical six wave flow. If the flow does break down, or if the waves drift back further north, then things on the surface will calm down again. As Steve M has mentioned on the model thread, its recent southerliness around the meridian is unusual, though certainly not unprecedented even for this time of year. What would be very unusual would be for the pattern to persist for much more than another week.

Edited August 23, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[summer blizzard]

It's interesting, given that even you are acknowledging that August is going to turn out around average, that people are spotting a sudden cooling, rather than a view that things are simply returning to normal. Yes, things are cooler than they were in July, but then July WAS the hottest month on record.

Furthermore, after a sustained run outside of average, there usually follows a correction later - witness recent rainfall after a long dry period.

After 2-3 fairly changeable weeks it would be quite something if the current run kept going for much longer. I haven't been watching the jet forecasts religiously, but there are signs now of it starting to get unstable - the GFS projection for Tuesday is remarkable, with an almost symmetrical six wave flow. If the flow does break down, or if the waves drift back further north, then things on the surface will calm down again. As Steve M has mentioned on the model thread, its recent southerliness around the meridian is unusual, though certainly not unprecedented even for this time of year. What would be very unusual would be for the pattern to persist for much more than another week.

Strattos Ferric, personally, it is not how low the CET is which shocks me, but the change from July, i would of expected something akin to 1983 with a fairly warm August following.

As for the dry period, March and May were both above average in rainfall, so the statement of averages is true however we have hardly being in a long dry period unless you look at a longer timeframe such as a year.

It would be unusual for summer if this pattern continued however we are now approaching September with is traditionally a rather unsettled month anyway, i think that your statement would of been true in June or July, but not August, as the average September is unsettled anyway, quite simply, Autumn has just come early.

Phillip Eden has the current CET still at 16.7C, the final CET looks to be somewhere between 15.9C and 16.3C, depending on how low the minima is.

Edited August 24, 2006 by summer blizzard

[January Snowstorm]

It would be unusual for summer if this pattern continued however we are now approaching September with is traditionally a rather unsettled month anyway, i think that your statement would of been true in June or July, but not August, as the average September is unsettled anyway, quite simply, Autumn has just come early.

I have no fact to back this up as I'm working but i always thought September was one of the driest months of the year??

Anybody with any knowledge about??

[The Enforcer]

Mmmm, there's been a few posts like this recently, leading to some spectacularly early ramping about sudden cooling, a cold winter ahead etc. etc.

It's the old habit of stating "whatever weather is doing now equals cold winter ahead".

This applies whatever the circumstances: 'Cool August = cold winter' or 'Hot August = cold winter" or even "rain at 5pm today = cold winter". I've seen examples this summer of "blocking pattern is continuing = cold winter" but also "SST pattern has changed = cold winter", which would appear to be a contradiction.

This phenomenon is heavily skewed in that current/recent weather patterns are rarely cited in predicting a mild winter, even though statistically, this would be by far the safer bet.

[Red Raven]

i'm currently running at 0.2 below the 20 year average for my location with a mean of 14.7.

[johnholmes]

exactly 1C above the combined RAF Finningely and my own, so 1942-95 and 97 onwards, the mean is 16.0C, its currently 17.1C, only 0.2c from the first 5 days

Mind you its the wettest I've recorded since my Davis arrived, already 69.2mm.

[The PIT]

My Davis is 0.6C below normal and the Stevenson is 0.2C above at the present time. Quite a differance but mainly due to short warm sunny spells that have raised the temp. I've got the Davis set so that it takes the figures all day. I'm not sure whether to change it or not becuase I feel the Davis is the what the man in the street will generally feel and remember.

[tinybill]

My Davis is 0.6C below normal and the Stevenson is 0.2C above at the present time. Quite a differance but mainly due to short warm sunny spells that have raised the temp. I've got the Davis set so that it takes the figures all day. I'm not sure whether to change it or not becuase I feel the Davis is the what the man in the street will generally feel and remember.

is august going down for the wetest one up to 6.30 to-night have had 2.4 mm of rain !

Edited August 24, 2006 by tinybill

[The PIT]

Well rainfall wise we're above average just.

[cheeky_monkey]

im going 4 less settled and cooler august esp last week

my guess 16.4c

if things pan out..my guess and general synopsis are looking pretty good..(famous last words)

[Stratos Ferric]

...the average September is unsettled anyway, quite simply, Autumn has just come early.

I wouldn't wholly agree with you there SB, though it's a matter of stress. The typical September certainly has some unsettled weather, but it is rare for the month to be wholly unsettled. It's more typical to have at least one decent run of HP dominated weather.