August CET

[MP-R]

30C wasn't exceeded in Yatton in 1996 or 1998! 2001 managed to go above with 30.5C on July 3rd and the highest temperature of the summer on the 29th with 32.3C. In 2002 it brushed 30 with 30.2C on the 17th. The +30C days really shot up in 2003 and this year in 2006. I recorded a 30.1C on the 31st July 2004 and the same high on the 8th August 2004.

Last year the five highest recordings in Yatton for August were as follows:

Tuesday 30th - 29.1C

Tuesday 8th - 28.6C

Thursday 18th - 28.5C

Wednesday 17th - 28.3C

Tuesday 16th - 27.9C

Wednesday 31st was next with a high of 26.6C

My CET for this month is now 19.8C and falling by about 0.1C every day.

Edited August 12, 2006 by Michael Prys-Roberts

[chilly milly]

According to Clifton Weather, which is the nearest station I know of to me, the August mean is currently 17.1C. I'm assuming this is the same as the CET?

[The PIT]

According to Clifton Weather, which is the nearest station I know of to me, the August mean is currently 17.1C. I'm assuming this is the same as the CET?

Nope thats just the average for that station. CET is completly different. CET stand for Central England Temperature and is measured by a series of stations across that area.

[Red Raven]

im to the north of the triangle but my average is 14.9 which is exactly the same as the 30 year mean for my area. strange how much different from last month it is which was +2.6 - still only half way through the month so who knows how it may turn out.

[chilly milly]

Oh I see, thanks for that The Pit. And there was I thinking I was learning something. Well I am now I guess. :lol:

[Nick F]

Yes, a few posts loosely referring to their readings as the CET, but the official Hadley CET is representative of temp readings in a roughly triangular area of England enclosed by Bristol, Lancashire and London. Philip Eden's Manley CET series is similar though carries on with the original Manley series which uses two Midland stations in Lancashire and Oxfordshire which were abandonned by the Met Office when they took over the official CET data when Manley died.

Btw, Phil's Manley CET has dropped 0.3C since yesterday from 1.0C above average down to to 0.7C above:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[chilly milly]

Thats great, thanks Nick. So I suppose we use the CET as a benchmark when considering our own monthly mean figures and as the definiative figures when comparing previous months/years. :lol:

[The PIT]

And we should keep on using the manley data :lol:

Edited August 12, 2006 by The PIT

[summer blizzard]

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

Snow-Man2006: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Supercell: 16.6C

Shuggee: 16.7C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Bilz: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Thundry Wintry Showers: 16.9C

Osbourne One-Nil: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

Beng: 17C

HighPressure: 17C

The Abominable Snowman: 17C

PhilipEden: 17.1C

Reef: 17.2C

Drfeelgood: 17.2C

TinyBill: 17.2C

Steve M: 17.2C

Hammer: 17.2C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Mr Sleet: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Snowyowl9: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Dawlish: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Joneseye: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Jackone: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Timmy H: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

With the CET looking to be around 16.5C on the 15th, i think that any of the CET estimates in the list above are possible.

[The PIT]

I see mine and WIB have dropped off.

[West is Best]

I see mine and WIB have dropped off.

Well spotted. What's that all about SB?! Edit: I've just realised this is Summer Blizzard's own selection of what he thinks is likely to happen: a little arbitrary perhaps!

16.5C by the 15th SB? Maybe, but as ever it's a bit of a punt with the temps. Minima are not that low at the moment, but you might be right. It's currently 17.2C on Manley.

I still think it's premature to write off a warm up this month, but we shall see!

Edited August 13, 2006 by West is Best

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm sorry SB, I have to agree with West here. This thread is for everyone, whether right or wrong.

Although you are of course doing a wonderful job of bumping these figures up, could you be so kind to include 'everyones' figures when you do so.

Thank you

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

Snow-Man2006: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Supercell: 16.6C

Shuggee: 16.7C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Bilz: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Thundry Wintry Showers: 16.9C

Osbourne One-Nil: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

Beng: 17C

HighPressure: 17C

The Abominable Snowman: 17C

PhilipEden: 17.1C

Reef: 17.2C

Drfeelgood: 17.2C

TinyBill: 17.2C

Steve M: 17.2C

Hammer: 17.2C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Mr Sleet: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Snowyowl9: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Dawlish: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Joneseye: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Jackone: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Timmy H: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Stormchaser1: 18.5C

Scorcher: 18.6C

Snowprincess: 18.7C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

Roger J Smith: 19.4C

Vince: 20.4C

[MP-R]

19.7C and dropping day by day. I think it will end up between 18.8C and 19.2C in my location as it does look set to get warmer again by the end of next week.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Although the guesses were for the CET, thats a very good punt for your location MPR.

It goes to show how regional variances, especially in a month like this, can be so different.

19.7oC - An average temperature to be proud of so far

[Weather-history]

Could be on the biggest drops in terms of CET between July and August

The biggest is 3.6C

July 1737: 17.4

Aug 1737: 13.8

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thanks Mr D. Although not Manley or Hadley, the Net-Wx CET has a drop (ATM) of 3.37oC.

Looks like the difference may halt, or even decrease during later next week, but current projections show a possability of increasing again.

So it could be a very interesting summer in regards to monthly differences.

[kold weather]

I have to say IO'd be suprised now if we do get the all time summer CET which would be at 177/8C depending on what series you use. Still not impossible just given just how the models are looking right now a

CET close to average is a good bet, probably in the 16. range.

While SB is probably wrong to really not put in CEt temps above 18.4C, he's right I dare say given how the Azores high is sticking to our west I simply can't see how the heat that is required to ghet that sort 0of CET at this time of year is going to make it, as i said before to get a CEt of 1C in the second half of August is like getting a 19C in July, possible but requires close to perfect set-up.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I actually prefer having the highest values. I remember Mr Data regularly updating the CET required for the rest of the month to get the predicted values, which would include values like -33.6C

[West is Best]

Up to last night Philip has the Manley CET on 16.9C http://www.climate-uk.com/

If anything I think this week should eventually hole out slightly above this figure, mainly because although it may dip for another day the warmer night-time minima should see the figure pull gradually upwards, especially with the maxima increasing, so my guess (and it is only a guess) is that we'll finish next weekend no lower than 17C. All still to play for!

[The PIT]

I think the clue for this week will be the overnight mins which one be two low. So if you hit 20C yet the Min is still 15C you're going to get an above average figure.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think interestingly, using what Mr D said yesterday about the largest Jul-Aug gap, i've just noticed that to achieve this, we can still be above average by the end of the month

Looking at the latest projection, I agree with what you say WiBs. Although, by the end of the week (Sunday), I would perhaps add on another 0.3oC?

At the mo, the end of the week looks quite pleasant, with the Central areas looking to have more above average temps than, say, London (in terms of xoC above average).

[West is Best]

Agreed Chris!

[kold weather]

The key to this CET this week is the exact timing of the fronts, at the moment they look like arriving overnight which should keep mins higher then the norm. General wind direction should be good enough to keep the mins fairly high for a while after as well, WNW always tends to bring in a fair amount of cloud however daytime maxes will eventually become supressed once the temps to our direct north starts to get back down towards average after the super heat of July.

Anything above 18C IMO is probably close to, if not out of the question right now given the set-up and the strong Azores high blocking.

[MP-R]

19.5C and still dropping

[West is Best]

Yesterday was actually warmer than average for the time of year, and consequently the Manely CET rose. Now at 17.0C http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0608.htm