August CET

[Optimus Prime]

So far this August the CET is 15.5c. 0.3c below the 61-90 average or 0.7c below the 71-000 average.

[kold weather]

Going to be very hard for this month to reach the required CET for us to make this the warmest ever summer. The problem is we seem to have the Azores high sticking out to our west which should mean pretty constant modified northerlies which will probably give very average temps.

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

Snow-Man2006: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Supercell: 16.6C

Shuggee: 16.7C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Bilz: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Thundry Wintry Showers: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

The Abominable Snowman: 17C

PhilipEden: 17.1C

Reef: 17.2C

Drfeelgood: 17.2C

TinyBill: 17.2C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Mr Sleet: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Snowyowl9: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Dawlish: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Joneseye: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Jackone: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Timmy H: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Stormchaser1: 18.5C

Scorcher: 18.6C

Snowprincess: 18.7C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

Roger J Smith: 19.4C

Vince: 20.4C

Fairly good agreement looking at the GFS0z ensembles for no real warmth for the first half of August, infact, by the 15th August, the CET may be around 1C below average, which pretty much rules out a CET greater than 18C.

[The PIT]

15th August is a long way away plenty of time to change

[West is Best]

This may already have appeared but the Areal series figure for July has just been published. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...stics/ewsun.txt

At 297.5 hours that smashes the previous record for a calendar month.

It means that August needs to reach 210.5 hours to break the sunniest summer record.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Psssssssssst....SB....I predicted 16.9º!

[West is Best]

Fairly good agreement looking at the GFS0z ensembles for no real warmth for the first half of August, infact, by the 15th August, the CET may be around 1C below average, which pretty much rules out a CET greater than 18C.

You really just can't make assertions like this though SB. It's bad enough trying to get synoptics right 7 days ahead, let alone temperatures, and let alone synoptics and temperatures the best part of a fortnight away. There's just no way to be able to state what it will be on 15th August, and equally dodgy to say on 3rd August that you can rule out a final monthly CET over 18C!

Edited August 3, 2006 by West is Best

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

Snow-Man2006: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Supercell: 16.6C

Shuggee: 16.7C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Bilz: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Thundry Wintry Showers: 16.9C

Osbourne One-Nil: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

Beng: 17C

The Abominable Snowman: 17C

PhilipEden: 17.1C

Reef: 17.2C

Drfeelgood: 17.2C

TinyBill: 17.2C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Mr Sleet: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Snowyowl9: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Dawlish: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Joneseye: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Jackone: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Timmy H: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Stormchaser1: 18.5C

Scorcher: 18.6C

Snowprincess: 18.7C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

Roger J Smith: 19.4C

Vince: 20.4C

West Is Best, firstly, i only said that there was strong agreement from the ensembles of no hot spell during the first half of August and that the CET MAY be 1C below average by the 15th and that if it were, then a CET of over 18C would be very hard to achieve.

Edited August 3, 2006 by summer blizzard

[beng]

Hope it's not too late to enter - anyway I reckon it'll come out around 17c

[Guest Mike W]

Going by the Hadley Series we would need a August CET of 17.8 to make 2006 the hottest summer on record and 17.7 to equal 1976.

Edited August 3, 2006 by Mike W

[HighPressure]

A bit late I know but not a great start to August, will be warming up so I go for 17.0 deg

[West is Best]

We have a rather unusual state of affairs at the moment. Normally the NW temp tracker is a little above Philip Eden's Manley CET figure. Up to last night, however, the Manley CET is way above the NW tracker. Philip has the CET currently on 17.7C, with the NW tracker after last night currently on 15.84.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Sunshine totals have been surprisingly good so far, with nearly 20 hours in the first 3 days. The sunniest summer on record still remains a real shot.

[Terminal Moraine]

[

Sunshine totals have been surprisingly good so far, with nearly 20 hours in the first 3 days. The sunniest summer on record still remains a real shot.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

We have a rather unusual state of affairs at the moment. Normally the NW temp tracker is a little above Philip Eden's Manley CET figure. Up to last night, however, the Manley CET is way above the NW tracker. Philip has the CET currently on 17.7C, with the NW tracker after last night currently on 15.84.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Sunshine totals have been surprisingly good so far, with nearly 20 hours in the first 3 days. The sunniest summer on record still remains a real shot.

Hi Richard. That is very unusual. Without getting into the old arguement of which is more official, i'm wondering whether the Manley CET is somewhat has a problem.

Both Net-Wx and Metcheck (two other 'resources') have the CET at 15.85 and 15.8 respectively. Although there are likely to be differences between the Manley and others, nearly 2oC is alot.

Also, with reviewing the ensembles since the 01st Aug, I cant see how the CET could be above by such an amount.

Very strange indeed?

[Bottesford]

[

Sunshine totals have been surprisingly good so far, with nearly 20 hours in the first 3 days. The sunniest summer on record still remains a real shot.

Unlike here where there have been just over 7 hours of sunshine so far this month.

T.M

Yeah similar here I'd have thought. Certainly not a sunny or warm start to August!

[West is Best]

Very strange indeed?

Yes I'm very surprised. Unless it has something to do with the west/north-west which had sunshine and heat yesterday? Tops of nearly 26C down the west side of Britain, and I notice the Manley max yesterday was well above average. That may be the reason I think. Maybe the NW tracker has comparively more stations to the east.

[Weather-history]

Hi Richard. That is very unusual. Without getting into the old arguement of which is more official, i'm wondering whether the Manley CET is somewhat has a problem.

Both Net-Wx and Metcheck (two other 'resources') have the CET at 15.85 and 15.8 respectively. Although there are likely to be differences between the Manley and others, nearly 2oC is alot.

Also, with reviewing the ensembles since the 01st Aug, I cant see how the CET could be above by such an amount.

Very strange indeed?

I have to admit I'm a little surprised at that figure. Usually, the Manchester mean temperature is close to Phil's value but its about 1.4C below Phil's value.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Could be true Richard. I suppose the only logical explanation is the placment of sites Vs. Number of sites.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure about the Manley figure myself- it might be because of locally above-average temperatures at the stations, or it might be an error in calculation that would be corrected shortly. I notice that the temperature graph seems to suggest a near-average temperature rather than 1C above.

We'll probably find out in a couple of days' time in terms of what the value is.

[STEVE M]

I'm going for an August CET of 17.2C. I don't think it will be as hot as July this month, but essentially with HP never too far away, it will be far from cool either. I suspect temps will be above average for most, if not all of this month. But the potential for any heatwaves are diminishing all the time. Still plenty of time for heatwaves to develop, but with the Atlantic showing signs of cooling down, the chances are looking pretty remote atm.

[PhilipEden]

I'm not sure about the Manley figure myself- it might be because of locally above-average temperatures at the stations, or it might be an error in calculation that would be corrected shortly. I notice that the temperature graph seems to suggest a near-average temperature rather than 1C above.

We'll probably find out in a couple of days' time in terms of what the value is.

Eeek! 33.5 divided by 2 is not 17.7, Philip. It'll be corrected tonight. Meanwhile I have to come to terms with learning that I am not infallible. Back to the cricket, I think.

Philip

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 13.5C

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

SteveB: 15.7C

Stephen Prudence: 15.9C

Snow-Man2006: 15.9C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Jshaw: 16.2C

Cheeky_monkey: 16.4C

Windswept: 16.5C

Supercell: 16.6C

Shuggee: 16.7C

Stargazer: 16.8C

Bilz: 16.8C

Lukenmudge: 16.9C

Thundry Wintry Showers: 16.9C

Osbourne One-Nil: 16.9C

Anti-Mild: 17C

Beng: 17C

HighPressure: 17C

The Abominable Snowman: 17C

PhilipEden: 17.1C

Reef: 17.2C

Drfeelgood: 17.2C

TinyBill: 17.2C

Steve M: 17.2C

Great Plum: 17.3C

Senior ridge: 17.3C

Terminal Moraine: 17.3C

Mr Sleet: 17.3C

Sunshine: 17.4C

Snowyowl9: 17.4C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Bottesford: 17.5C

kold weather: 17.5C

Dawlish: 17.5C

Conor123: 17.6C

Scribbler: 17.6C

Joneseye: 17.6C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.7C

Su Rui Ke: 17.8C

Mr Data: 17.8C

ChrisL: 17.8C

Sandstorm2: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.9C

Jackone: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Kippure: 18.1C

Timmy H: 18.1C

Parmenides3: 18.3C

Summer of 95: 18.4C

Stormchaser1: 18.5C

Scorcher: 18.6C

Snowprincess: 18.7C

Optimus Prime: 18.9C

West is Best: 18.9C

The PIT: 19C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19C

Stricklands: 19.2C

Roger J Smith: 19.4C

Vince: 20.4C

Can i ask that all CET predictions/ammendmants be in by midnight tonight.

Also, i have send an email to Phillip Eden asking him whether the anomolous CET reading is due to regional bias or a miscalculation, i have also asked him if he will be updating the data on the dry spell.

EDIT: It seems he has just made a post explaining and that the actaul CET figure should be 16.75C.

Edited August 4, 2006 by summer blizzard

[West is Best]

Eeek! 33.5 divided by 2 is not 17.7, Philip. It'll be corrected tonight. Meanwhile I have to come to terms with learning that I am not infallible. Back to the cricket, I think.

Philip

Thanks Philip!!!

[kold weather]

Looking at the models right now looking like after this breif warm-up we get into a fairly cool pattern for at least a few days. Remembering that we need 17.8C for this summer to be the warmest ever, we really need the next 10 days to pull in a figure close to 18C because as the month goes on the heat we can tap into shrinks away and its more and more of a decent set-up to get it up here. Of course that not to say the second half isn't able to get 18C, it can over a paeriod of 15 days however what is making me worried is the constant HP to our west and the entire pattern change downstream whivh suggests northerlies rather then southerlies will be the main story this month.

[Hairy Celt]

doomed. no chance.