Tropical Depression Chris

[crimsone]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 021133

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

800 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD

ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF

ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND

ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65

MILES... 105 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH

OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS

MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY

OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM

...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5

INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION... 19.0 N 63.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

According to this, SLP has dropped by 2 milibars since the last advisory (contradicts the latest recon of 1003 though), and we are just 8 miles per hour away from seeing the first hurricane of the season.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[P.K.]

There was a 67kt reading though which would translate to about 53kts at the surface and so be rounded up to 55kts.

[crimsone]

The NHC still have Chris "threading the needle" within 5 days - frightening thought is that...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...html?tswindloop?

[summer blizzard]

This system could go anywhere, i believe that this system that this system will experience will experience rapid strengthening today, becoming a strong category 1 hurricane by the end of today, however it does look as thougfh shear will increase tommorow and wednesday, knocking the system back to a strong Tropical Storm/weak category 1 hurricane however shear should once again relax before landfall is made in Florida as a moderate category 1 hurricane before the system reemerges in the Gulf Of Mexico and expreiences rapid stengthening before landfall in either Luissiana or Missisipi as a strong category 3/weak category 4 hurricane (Katrina replay).

I am afraid that i am going to have upgrade the intensity of my forecast, i now expect landfall in southern Florida as a category 2 hurricane before rapid strengthening in the Gulf Of Mexico and landfall in Luissiana or Mississipi as a strong category 4/weak category 5 hurricane.

For all those affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, i am now forecasting round 2.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi S.B., My fears are around the Hurricane making it into the gulf and affecting the states that took such a battering last year. Some of the images of the erosion caused to that coast over the last 2 yrs (not helped by mans activities in the region) would leave you believing that we are starting to leave the area open for a disaster that wasn't physically possible 15yrs ago.

What man should have left alone nature may well take back by force.

[Mondy]

The HPC has it a mid-Texas coast hit. Strangely, it's still levelling around 1008mb and therefore still a TS

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_precolor.html

Looks excellent on the NRL imagery. Been travelling WNW @ 10 for a while now - just sits there screaming CANE

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/A...ull/Latest.html

Edited August 2, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[Mondy]

Gusts now of 75mph, which although not sustained, it's hitting CAT 1 Hurricane strength.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:50 am EDT, August 2, 2006

CHRIS PROMPTS HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAHAMAS

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Courtesy HurricaneTrack

[Mondy]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Then click on image of Chris

[kold weather]

Eastern most Bahamas is issuing a hurricane force watch which is very wise give nthe strength of the gusts already that are present.

As i suspected this morning there is a decreasing chance now of PR/DR/Hatia being hit given its still moving still slightly north of WNW. Models are showing that this system should be sent slightly more to the due west as the ridge strengthens which would put the Bahamas and the keys in the main firing line.

This is a very bad set-up though for S.florida, the ridge should keep Chris just to the south of Florida and the northern eyewall should end up hitting the keys as well as S.Florida, and a shift to the north would see 100mph gusts in Miami. Beyond that and i don't want to go too far but to say that at least in term sof strength, SB may not be far wrong and a cat-4 is very possible, even cat-5. Even more worringly is I think the ridge wil lstay strong for long enough to put Texas into the mix and I relaly do fear somewhere like Galveston could be at risk eventually, though we do need to hope it ends up heading more to the due west nto unpopulated areas of Mexico like Emily last year.

Chris is getting stronger for sure right now with a very good structure, sat estimates now put him at about 70mph and as recon is currently looking int othe system and will report winds back later, tohugh I suspect an update to 70mph will be needed when the data comes in and maybe even an upgrade to hurricane strength, as sat estimates do just about support it!

Banding features are now also evident as first noted by the recon this morning and ther eis stil lan upper eye opresent withthe first signs of an upper eyewal lthough this hasn't worke dits way down to the surface yet and isn't that evident on satelite imagery, though radar shows it off nicely. Good deep CDO with some cold cloud tops are present and a decent looking system system with nice outflow, going to be a hurricane soon.

Anyway I'm stil lnot quite sure how strong Chris will be but I'd ghuess by that point it'll be quite similar to Rita in that a 100mph hurricane passing pretty clsoe to the keys, not sure how big it'll be mind you as it still has a tight graidiant, and when it passes over the loop current, thats when we could see fireworks.

But for now, despite this ther eis a massive concern over S.florida, the Bahamas, Keys and also Cuba because anyone of these could be hit by Chris as a cat-1/2 and we saw with hurricane Katrina what a cat-1 can do over in Florida, where it caused alot of prolems. I think most likely a cat-2 passing to the south of Florida over the keys then into the guld where who knows what may happen!

[Mondy]

This was the track Rita took.

You just wonder?

[kold weather]

Certainly some similarties bar Chris formed further east but the synoptic set-up is pretty similar at least for now in that a strong ridge should send Chris eventually south of WNW. The main difference this time is that there is no sign of a real weakness to the north like with rita so expect a WNW track to continue even int othe gulf, I'd right now favor Texas somewhere to be hit but not quite sure where, much depends on how much lattiude it gains in the next 24-36hrs before the ridge forces the track to flatten somewhat.

Whatever happens we are now looking at the possiblt yof quite a strong system forming and the strongest systm of the hurricane season thus far, prehaps this may even be remembered as one of those legandary storms, its all in the lap of the gods at present!

I'd be very concerend if i was in Miami, as we saw with Katrina these storms can wobble about a little before landfall esp when they are gonig fairly fast strengthening.

[Mondy]

Not necessarily KW. Out of all historical storms within Chris's vicinity, not one hit Texas.

[kold weather]

Hi Mondy, indeed your right theres not many that have got intothat reigon, however given the synoptic set-up ther eis only a breif chance for it to move northwards to strike somewherelike the Panhandle but once that closes up it'll have to move WNW. It's a similar set-up to Emily last year in that the ridge was very elongated W-E and Emily simply had to ride the ridge.

At this time we have a very powerful ridge to the north and NW of Chris which is very stron gindeed, once the systems starts to feel this ridge it'll move WNW and possibly even close to due west and once that starts the ridges strength will force it to carry on heading WNW. I just don't see much in the way of deep digging troughs and weakness to send it north-wards, the ridge simply looks too solid right now according to the models, I could well be wrong but i must amdit to have such a strong ridge to the north, it takes some thnig quite strong considering we are still in August.

(This system will be more akin to 1933 tohugh may end up further north then that over Texas.)

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that todays conditions are a little bit different to the tracks you've posted Mondy. Whether many people like the notion I think that we are starting to see the effect of climate change on the synoptics of the gulf region (man made or otherwise) and as such Chris is almost programmed into entering the gulf.

You know what the SST's are for the gulf coast at the mo.so even if Chris just blitz's the coast and then ploughs into Mexico there'll still be a lot of U.S. damage caused (straight through the oil field/refineries) and U.S. damage = world damage (price of tinnies would go up!) so I hope your statistics do win out over nature......for my brains sake!!!

[crimsone]

What with the lack of systems untill now, I'm starting to regret my theory and prediction of a sort of "loaded gun", where I said that when the season finally does get underway, It may well start off with a very big bang.

Prove me wrong Chris... please. This is one time where I'd rather not have caught the right tide.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

recon should be reporting back soon and we'll get a good idea of how strong the system is. I suspect it'll not be much more then 65mph that it is presently, maybe there could be a wind speed found that would support a upgrade to 70mph, but there is an outside chance of winds being high enough to support hurricane stauts, i suppose we'll find out soon enough. crimsone, this could turn out to be a very dangeorus hurricane down the road, certainly needs to be watched doesn't it down the line, firstly for Bahamas/Sofl/keys/Cuba and then possibly all part of the gulf.

(ps, new advisory says pressur eis upto 1007mbs, very ood given its actually looks much better then it has done recently, mind you i suyspect the next recon pass wil lfind pressure down to 1000mbs ,the only explanation for that is if the recon has actually missed the center, maybe the pressure really has risen but it seems a touch too high, at least for 65mph and I suspect if pressure is at 1007mbs then Chris is probably weaker then the NHC are currently showing if thats the case, prehaps Chris has been fooling us with impressive sat imagery, though as its a small system with a small core you tend to find it can still be strong even if pressur eisn't as low as you'd expect...IE Charley and Emily.

(pps, lightning being reported on the eastern side, very intresting indeed...certainly something is up with this storm at the moment that is causing it some trouble, prehaps some dry air intrusion coupled with some low level shear is causing it problems at the moment though how long this will be a factor for i'm not sure, it sure shows how much more we've got to learn about weather though, no-one seeme dot call for the pressure to rise by a good 4-5mbs!

Going to be intresting to see what the next run-through of Chris to see whether it was a breif blip and its getting stronger again or if it really has weakened thanks to those factors, I'm not too sure what is happening as i don't have good enough resolution sat imagery.)

[crimsone]

Here go the oil prices! http://www.plenglish.com/Article.asp?ID=%7...amp;language=EN

Oh, and apparently there's more of the same on the way after Chris, though how they know this more than meteorologists do is a very good question indeed... http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll...NEWS01/60802009

I did read a news article earlier through google that claimed that TS Chris had the NHC slightly perplexed. in all honesty, I can see no sighn of this. They did mention though that even though all the usual signs of increased favorability and organisasion were there, but it hasn't intensified as much as anybody would naturally expect considering how favourable it has become. SLP was one of the things mentioned, and I have to be honest, I still think the last recon vs advisory 7 was a little odd on the pressure/intensity stakes. How much of the article was rubbish though is beyond my ability to guess.

OK, away from media observations (pinch of salt stuff really), and back to TS Chris...

latest recon from "Gizmo" (god that squadron has a sense of humour! lol)...

000

URNT12 KNHC 021815

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 02/17:52:30Z

B. 19 deg 35 min N

063 deg 56 min W

C. 850 mb 1490 m

D. 30 kt

E. 154 deg 037 nm

F. 199 deg 047 kt

G. 146 deg 052 nm

H. 1006 mb

I. 11 C/ 1514 m

J. 23 C/ 1533 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.12 / 2 nm

P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 03

MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z

LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM

;

KW, Looking at the vapour loop that runs untill about 2 hours ago, Could the system have encountered that SE'ly/E'ly flow on it's north east quadrant? Unfortunately, the image doesn't cover enough ground for me to see exactly what it is, and I'd have to zoom out to the atlantic view to find out, loosing a lot of resolution...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

... though at 1745 it does seem to have a patch of dry air in front of it?

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

Any chance of the slight weakening being some kind of psuedo- Eyewall replacement cycle?

EDIT: In fact if you look at the latest imagery you can see either a central peak of new convection bang in the middle of Chris or ......something else?

Edited August 2, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

Darn it! I hate being the last post on a page! Nobody see's when you edit it to add something to the end. lol

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

No its definatly not that, MPI would support a system upto cat-4 before it would have to under-go an eyewall sothats not the case. Clearly its another factor that is quite low level becasue the sat imagery is still pretty good bar the NW which is starting to become a little supressed. My guess would be shear is causing this but the floater on Chris doesn't really show what is causing this shear as of now which is causing some problems on the NW section, still plenty of deep cold convection on the eastern side though which helping to give a large temp difference between the center and the convection.Also water vapor imatges do show there is dry air to the north of the system which may not be helping that NW quadrant.

Shows how much we as Humans have to learn about these systems doesn't it though!

[Paranoid]

Well, if this storm does go above Category 3 then lets hope that there's as little damage as possible. If Chris gets too near Louisana at that strength then New Orleans could be in trouble. Rita caused problems for the levees and that was just a "flyby".

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still seeing a central depresion on the 18:45 image (not the blossoming of convection) ,any ideas?

EDIT: Anyhow the past 2 days has had rapid convection becoming apparent on the 19:15 images onward so not long now 'till things start to get cookin' again (even more cookin' than at the mo')

Also looking at the extrapolations of SST's to max wind speed sustainable it's Cat 5 territory straight through to the Gulf coast, the same system for min pressure sustainable over the waters has the Gulf coast down to 890mb (of course these are max potentials but it shows how things are stacked out there)

Edited August 2, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

From the carribean visible, it seems that the storm is north of its track forecast point. The vapour is showing a reduced intensity at the center, and little outflow(?? I'm not perfect at reading sattelite images!) in front of it which I believe would imply shear? It may also be starting to ingest a little bit of that dry air in front of it, but not in any significant quantity or way from what I can make out.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Mondy]

To pick up on the point Crimsone made regarding "more on the way"..i can see how!

Behind Chris, there are additional storm systems, including a low front moving off the coast of Africa. This signals the beginning of what experts call the Cape Verde Hurricane Season, when multiple storm seasons move from Africa westwardly through the Camp Verde Islands.

Pouring off Cape Verde at the moment.

Back to Chris (what a crap name for a hurricane btw )....

Looking at the 180hr forecast... looks like the ridge (which KW mentioned previously) should start to erode.. that will possibly allow Chris to slide north into the LA, MS, AL area with TX missing altogether?

We'll see.