Tropical Depression Chris

[Kain]

Thanks Mondy

Kain

[wolves78]

if you want to stay updated try this forum

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=102678

[crimsone]

Can we all agree to stop calling every blob of convection within 60 miles of the center an eye or eye-like feature??

I think it would drastically cut the amount of flame posts in this thread

Given that the above was the first thing I saw from that forum, I shall look, but I won't touch. I sincerely doubt it says much we don't already know here anyway.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

Thanks Mondy , usually I watch about three sites which report the raw in flight data, and grab whichever comes first lol

The circular mass in the middle of Chris, is higher cloud I think, the sun now is to the west of Chris, and the shadows on that feature is to the east, which would mean the feature is higher than the surrounding cloud, not lower as in an eye forming. I will expect at some point an eye to form within this mass at some time though.

The loops I find most useful are these,

the floater RGB http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html with the forecast plots and various overlays

W. Atlantic RGB http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html (note the position of the sun, reflecting in the Pacific, gives an idea how to read the shadows on Chris)

and Enhanced W. Atlantic http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

[crimsone]

which would mean the feature is higher than the surrounding cloud

That would be the center of the CDO. When I last checked the radar, there was a large depressed ring forming around it, which does kina imply eye formation. It's been getting better organised all the time, and so now is probably around the time the eye forms anyway IMO

[wolves78]

[crimsone]

One good thing that did come from the link posted to another forum... A video update (old now though, but relevant!) and description of the current situation. http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayimag...um=2&pos=78

Why can't UK weather forecasts have that kind of feel and detail to them?

000

URNT12 KNHC 022208

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 02/21:46:30Z

B. 19 deg 49 min N

064 deg 22 min W

C. 850 mb 1492 m

D. 40 kt

E. 353 deg 020 nm

F. 091 deg 041 kt

G. 352 deg 022 nm

H. 1007 mb

I. 18 C/ 1521 m

J. 24 C/ 1515 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 0.31 / 2 nm

P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 15

MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 19:51:10 Z

;

Humidity in they "eye" is down quite considerably, at least adding a little credence to the idea that it might be finally forming/clearing out.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[wolves78]

One good thing that did come from the link posted to another forum... A video update (old now though, but relevant!) and description of the current situation. http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayimag...um=2&pos=78

Why can't UK weather forecasts have that kind of feel and detail to them?

Humidity in they "eye" is down quite considerably, at least adding a little credence to the idea that it might be finally forming/clearing out.

because balir wont spen much on it as he has running eater all the time

[crimsone]

OK, there's nobody around to discuss this, but just so everybody knows what's happening when the check in the morning...

000

WTNT33 KNHC 030243

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

1100 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS TURNS WESTWARD...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE

ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED

ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE

U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95

MILES...155 KM...NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...

NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...ALTHOUGH THE

CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING

THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF

CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED

MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS

VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE

TRACK OF THE CENTER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY

RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE

CHRIS IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130

KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4

INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH

VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN

THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Gray-Wolf]

Well, uhhm, well. What do you call it when the suface low tracks off NW and the uper convection slumps south? I supppose this would explain why Chris was struggling to maintain yesterday but I wonder what actually causes it to happen. You'd think the convection columns would keep top and bottom of the storm 'tied' together but apparently not. Ho hum, lets see what comes next (as long as that doesn't involve getting ripped apart on and island that is!)

Not looking very good for Chris at all, maybe he was just an unexpected 'flash in the pan'. Thunderstorm activity now appears completely separate from the L.P. and the NOAA didn't think he'd survive such separation. Ah well, maybe time to look at the Cape Verde mass approaching from the East.......

Edited August 3, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Snow Queen one]

Does the latest loop indicate Chris is going to die i just wonder as i have friends in Miami who are having their roof replaced with a hurricane proof roof and they do not have a roof on their house at the moment. If Chris is not going to be bad then it will be good for them.

[Gray-Wolf]

Does the latest loop indicate Chris is going to die i just wonder as i have friends in Miami who are having their roof replaced with a hurricane proof roof and they do not have a roof on their house at the moment. If Chris is not going to be bad then it will be good for them.

the NOAA suggest so, you can see the lower level low moving WNW but all the activity has slumped to the south and is grounding out on Puerto Rico. Never say never though!

EDIT: having no roof is a Hurricane proof roof!!

Edited August 3, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

Well this is certainly not what I was expecting, thje low level center has become disconnected with the mid-level circulation, its deifnatly the shear that is causing this and its quite a classic exampole of this de-coupling.

Chris certainly is in massive trouble as its leaving the rest of its convection behind and is showing little sign of developing any new convection and so it may well be the case that Chris is just going to weaken away and die. It is possible that the warm waters of the gulf stream may well pep it up and if its heading in the general direction of the gulf it must stil lbe watched very closely. Despite this its going to have a hard time this next 48hrs as that ULL over the Bahamas region is currently giving low level shear and this probably ease anytime soon

It's also a possiblty if the shear eases of that the MLC will develop a new low lveel circulation and with it prehaps a new system as Chris moves away WNW.

Still plenty to watch for, going to be a vital 24hrs. A storm is never done till it loses circulation, we saw that with TD10 last year...which eventually sparked off TD12 whicheventually became Katrina....

But tis fair to say Chris is in trouble.

[Paranoid]

Prehaps if Chris weakened back to TD strength, that might be enough to get him into the GOM where he can strengthen again. TD's seem to survive slightly better when moving over land.

[SnowBear]

What a difference a few hours can make eh?

When you look at this loop,

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

you can see what has knocked Chris's hat off, that long trail of rain and cloud which stretches right up into the Northern Atlantic, pushes south and sweeps over Chris's area.

Just wondering just how hard West Chris will be pushed, looking at the area, its possible it could slip between Cuba and Haiti, and become a Carribean Sea system...retaining some of the energy it has.

I dont think anywhere in the area of the Bahamas really favours hurricanes now at the moment looking at the shear, there is a circulation just off the FL coast near Miami, but its continually being shredded.

African Coast looks tasty though

[kold weather]

By the way Chris itslef is still heading WNW, Snowbear the MLC is heading WSW towards land and probably death with the convection weakening. I still wouldn't rule out Chris despite lots of convection i think it still needs to be watched for atleast the next 12hrs, because that shear could yet ease up like it has done a few days ago. Also worth noting that it has seriously quickened in the last 6-12hrs looking at the loops which is intresting to note. The circulation you note Snowbear over the Bahamas is the ULL, behind it is more favorable condtions as we saw yesterday however behind that wedge of more favorable condtions it gets very unfavorable. Do you remember the discussion about how if the system got too close to eithe one of the ULL's it would be sheared apart, wlel thats what has happened it seems with the eastern sstem inflicting shear on the storm. now its sped up again which may mean it'll get back tothe same sort of situation it wa sin yesterday inbetween the two ULL. This system certainly won't form that quickly however if it can keep the circulation going for the enxt 48hrs and develop some convection then its still got a good chance of being a major problem in the gulf.

Best way to describe this system is being on life-support, its not dead but its got a lnog way to go before it is back to its best!

It could well yet die away, esp as its a naked swril right now but don't completely rule it out yet.

[Gray-Wolf]

I suppose Chris is still a closed circulation (with a hole in the middle) and seeing as the Vapour image show him in a dry slot he might just maintain until he's into more favourable conditions. As K.W. has posted we've seen things come back from deaths door before so until he dissipates we should keep an eye on his progress. Definately not what I'd have expected this time yesterday!!

[summer blizzard]

"This system could go anywhere, i believe that this system that this system will experience will experience rapid strengthening today, becoming a strong category 1 hurricane by the end of today, however it does look as thougfh shear will increase tommorow and wednesday, knocking the system back to a strong Tropical Storm/weak category 1 hurricane however shear should once again relax before landfall is made in Florida as a moderate category 1 hurricane before the system reemerges in the Gulf Of Mexico and expreiences rapid stengthening before landfall in either Luissiana or Missisipi as a strong category 3/weak category 4 hurricane (Katrina replay)."

As you can see, i did expect weakening, shear should relax later tonight and we should then see a fairly rapid strengthening.

Forget what i just said, shear should be relaxing now, it is dry air that is the problem now and after 15:00, we should see development.

Edited August 3, 2006 by summer blizzard

[kold weather]

Oh this is still definatly a close circulation, you can clearly see it on the visable imagery right now, its got a little convection but not alot:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

Shear is still there SB though it will probably start to relax over the next 6-12hrs. i'm not so sure this is going to die, its stil lgot a cracking LLC right now and if it does get into favorable condtions in te next 24hrs then it could fire up pretty fast given the structure is stil lthere and in place bar the convection which is stil lbeing sheared away, plus ther eis some dry air present though I don't think this is the main factor for Chris downfall over night.

Intresting to note that most models did see chris downfall yesterday though most keep Chris a dead system, wil lbe intresting to see just how good a grip they relaly have on the atmospheric condtions around Chris.

(ps, Chris really should be downgraded to a TD based on recent recon, because that is what it is.)

[Chili Pepper]

I'm multishirking in the office at the moment but we are watching TS Chris very closely as we currently have a large cruise vessel in layup in Grand Bahama Shipyard and I believe she is being moved out the way at 1600 hours this afternoon......

Chili

[Mondy]

Goodness!

I've read yesterday that if Chris continues it'll be a cat4, maybe even 5. Now it's a mere TD.

That's why i'll never try and predict how big or bad a hurricane will be. It leaves you with egg on your face

Quite remarkable how it splits up: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Edited August 3, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[Kain]

Wow thats that swerl by Chris?

Seems like Chris is dying now, shame really, would have been interesting to watch..

Kain

[Paranoid]

Is there some atmospheric condition stopping these storms from reaching hurricane strength? Alberto was predicted to become a hurricane but weakened after reaching 70mph. Beryl had 60mph winds which weren't far off, and Chris was predicted to reach Hurricane strength but died out after reaching 65mph. Also, early in the system we usually see tropical storms with max winds less than 50mph. Where have they all gone?

Aslo, why did the formation of storms suddenly stop after Zeta in January 2006? The atlantic had been steadily producing storms from October and into December, and then we saw nothing until Alberto. a whole six months after Zeta?

Edited August 3, 2006 by Paranoid

[karyo]

It is a shame that Chris is weakening. The projected track was for Chris to pass the Florida straits just like Katrina did last year and enter the Golf of Mexico which would have spelt big trouble for the US coast.

Oh well, something else will pop up soon but it has to be said that this hurricane season looks a lot quieter than expected.

Karyo

[kold weather]

We've stil lgot a rathe rintresting set-up right now, in that Chris is heading still towards the gulf in the long run, if it can keep its circulation for a few more days (Very possible given shear is forecast to reduce a touch soon) then it'll the holy ground of the gulf of Mexico, prehaps the one place where the heat content is high enough to save Chris from remianing as just a Td/weak TS.

Recon has just found pressure at 1012mbs, this is definatly a tropical depression in all but name now, still looking like its gong to have a hard time over the next 48hrs but its not dead till its dead!