Tropical Depression Chris

[Mondy]

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefres...00603N_AL03.htm

[crimsone]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 012129

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF

ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.

EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE

U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75

MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...

AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON

THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE

NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS

1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES

OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND

EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM

ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030

PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

000

URNT12 KNHC 012108

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 01/20:41:00Z

B. 17 deg 53 min N

060 deg 52 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 10 kt

E. 219 deg 096 nm

F. 228 deg 043 kt

G. 191 deg 033 nm

H. EXTRAP 1003 mb

I. 24 C/ 298 m

J. 30 C/ 459 m

K. 19 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 1

O. 0.02 / 4 nm

P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 13

MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 18:47:40 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Edited August 1, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

Lots of energy going on in there now. This latest burst of convection (from 7:15pm tonight) has pepped up the surface winds by a third and we've still a few hour of 'building' to go. The guys a NOAA sound a little dubious about the current set of models and where/what they have Chris do in favour of leaning towards what they are seeing on the ground (and with this step up of intensity I think they've called it right!). I think they are telling us it's 'everyones best guess time'. Once Chris has formed (as I'm sure she will) the models will be bludgeoned into accepting her and we'll probably get better guidance from them!!!

[Somerset Squall]

Anyone know offhand when the first hurricane was last year?

1st week of July, Hurricane Cindy. But of course 2005 isn't a good year to make comparisions to normaility with really.

[Gray-Wolf]

Chris is still in good shape this a.m. She looks to have no 'bald' patches today (all sectors have convection) and you can see her circulation quite markedly on the sat. images. By this pm's convection she'll be a Hurricane for sure and then it's a matter of how big/how long and where she goes.

[crimsone]

Is it just be, or was there a bit of a "wobble" earlier this morning? Does that signify a change of direction, or a change in intensity or something? It appeared to loose a lot of outflow as it "wobbled", move the convective center to the NW, regroup around it, and continue the good outflow again - all within the space of just a few frames on the sattelite loop.

[Gray-Wolf]

Is it just be, or was there a bit of a "wobble" earlier this morning? Does that signify a change of direction, or a change in intensity or something? It appeared to loose a lot of outflow as it "wobbled", move the convective center to the NW, regroup around it, and continue the good outflow again - all within the space of just a few frames on the sattelite loop.

Seemed to 'spare' the northernmost Islands the worst of its efforts by having that 'wobble' though! She should now start to trawl towards the Florida straights picking up strength as she goes.

[crimsone]

Ah! It was a classic emergency maneuvre to avoid a head on collision - obviously she's saving her strength for something lol.

Lets hope she wasn't saving her strength to try and pay tribute to Katrina

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Paranoid]

Oh, by the way, it's he. This particular Chris is a bloke's name, as we had Beryl before him.

[Scribbler]

Tropical Cyclone Names 2006

Alberto

Beryl

Chris

Debby

Ernesto

Florence

Gordon

Helene

Isaac

Joyce

Kirk

Leslie

Michael

Nadine

Oscar

Patty

Rafael

Sandy

Tony

Valerie

William

I’m quite sure that you already know all these names – but you keep describing this up-and-coming Tropical Storm Chris as a SHE.

Since alternate names are male (1st-3rd-5th, etc) and then female (2nd-4th-6th, etc), unless I’m mistaken this one is a HE!!

Regards from me

Chris (HE)

Sorry - Paranoid - same thought!

Edited August 2, 2006 by Scribbler

[Gray-Wolf]

S/He's a cross dresser

[crimsone]

Well, I figured it to be nautical, sea-going, and very much the hand of nature, so maybe it's a transgendered hurricane? (well, the logic was there somewhere when I thought of it!)

I have no idea how to ask it about that though. Ok, seriously now, For some reason I just assume things through familiarity. I shall have to remember in future

Sorry GW - same thought. The really odd thing is mines timed a minute before yours, but still comes out later? It's one of those days that's out to bewilder me I think!

Edit: Ah - it's the edit function that's responsible.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Okay well Chris is looking very good indeed this morning, CDO stil llooks perfectly intact from last night and indeed it is starting to wobble a little around its cetner, a sure sign that its strengthening quite fast as the upper part of the eye forms. It probably will do another wobble this time to the west as it'll start to stair step its way WNW overall.

I really don't want to ramp this up to much right now but I'm extremely worried that this system could be a very dangerous system, as its heading in a similar direction ad quite a few monsters, Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Labor day storm and as this is still quite a tight storm I've got a real fear that once it gets under those relaly warm waters it could well bomb down to cat-2/3 and prehaps even further.

Even if the NHC are right you only have to remember the large damage hurricane Katrina did at a cat-1, they can still produce 100mph winds as well.

Anyway for the next 48hrs a general WNW motion will occur with the odd wobble as the eye and center starts to become much more established. system should become a hurricane in the next 24hrs, i wouldn't like to say exactly yet but at a guess its probably around the 70mph mark right now. The system isn't far away now from hurricane status. Two things could still occur that could save the key, Bahamas and S.Florida from a very bad situation, thats shear and a southerly jog that pushes it into Hispolnia and the large mountions there. However as I always suspected the systems tracking WNW to the north of the islands and that should continue so really only shear can stop this system from becoming quite a beast. The only thing that wouild cause a southerly jog is the ridge getting stronger to its north, possible as the models are showing this but then again most models have Chris as not even a depression!

Here's the NHC track, note theres a good chance of at least a cat-2 by the keys if not higher:

After Florida......

[Scribbler]

S/He's a cross dresser

Ah - but wouldn't a cross-dressing hurricane rotate in the opposite direction!!!???

[Kain]

If it keeps itself together by the time it reaches the GoM..Then I think we may have an early monster on our hands..

He looks impressive of the radar this morning (Saying a bloke is impressive..that sounds weird to say the least..comming from another bloke)

Hurricane by 3pm our time I would guess..

Kain

[crimsone]

There's only been one hurricane that rotated in the opposite direction, and it wasn't supposed to be possible. lol

I'm a little concerned now, especially looking at that track forcast that KW has posted - the NHC does indeed have this first hurricane of the season "threading the needle" into the GoM. Not good

(ok, I know it's not a hurricane yet, but It's pretty likely it will be, as it's isn't far away.)

He looks impressive of the radar this morning - (much better. I think blokes should appreciate other blokes more anyway. lol. You don't have to be in the eyewall to notice it's beauty and power )

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

I do share your concerns over the future of Chris K.w. I think the fact that none of the models (though on models output someone said GFS had 5 days ago) really developed Chris in the fashion HE is going that he may well end up 'Threading the needle' and entering the Gulf.

If the Oil platforms have to wrack off production in the current global climate then oil prices (and inflation) will rise. If he enters the Gulf and makes it into a major Hurricane then you have to wonder how well New Orleans's repairs are going (Esp. the Dykes) or whether the south coastal strip is up to a major strike (environmental damage from last years 'Hits' leading to further erosion of the dunes/brakish lagoons and opening up of the mainland to storm surges).

As someone has already pointed out Florideans (Esp. in the south) don't need this coming their way.

EDIT: If you check the SST's in the northern strip of the Gulf you'll see the potential for a storm strengthening just before making landfall or worse still trawling along the coastal strip at full force (i.e. through all the above mentioned zones)

Edited August 2, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 020828

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

500 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST

LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF

ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND

ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS

DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...

ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60

MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL NORTH OF THE

NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH

OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS

MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM

...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5

INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Is it me, or is it spreading outwards? I'm also wondering if NHC may have perhaps slightly underestimated the max sustained windspeed.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

So at 45 MPH He was 50 miles across (winds extended 25 miles from center yesterday 't' time) , now at 60 MPH He's 150 Miles across (75 Miles from center, latest bulletin)

Edited August 2, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

Just seen the models and most are suggesting a Hispaniola hit which would be very hard for Chris to recover from. However very few of those models seem to have even half a decent grip on Chris true strength right now and I find it very likely that it'll go to the north unles sit turns nearly due west right now.

The best chance for landfall away from the USA probably has to be on Cuba, if the track takes a more due west path if the ridge strengthens like some models are expecting however I personally stil lsuspect that it'll if anything be further north then expected ploughing through S.Florida, prehaps quite close to the Miami area as this system has been constantly moving to the north of where the models have been trying to take it.

I stil lthink a USA landfall is the most probably outcome, and the Bahamas will almost certainly be hit in some sort of form I reckon, beyond that, it could go throug hthe straights, it could yet hit Cuba but my call would be south Florida. Given the way its still moving north of WNW a Florida hit is looknig extremely likely. Even central parts of Florida aren't safe by any means.

I think Chris is going to be a 70mph in the next 6hrs or so given the much improved sturcture, looks very much in the high 60's low 70's sort of range to me and it should become the first hurricane eventually.

[crimsone]

It certainly is quite an impressive growth GW, I'd have to agree. If this is the rate it's going to grow at, it may get to a point where, like Wilma (the monster of last year) it may become a little more resistant to shear. It's really starting to look like it may end up being bad news for anything in it's path at this rate.

Edit: I seem to be getting a 403 error (forbidden) from the NHC mainpage now. Is it just me? Hang on - it's better now.

The current carribean loop shows quite a growth after that wobble, considering the timeframe...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Also, I couldn't help but make a note that our recon will be supplied today by "gonzo" - http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/2006_storm_missions.htm

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

Things certainly are a lot better than daybreak yesterday. Now the suns up lets see how things develop. Most of the BIG convection has been happening from the 7:15pm (our time) Sat. pic over the past couple of days but I'll wager things get cooking a lot earlier today!!

[Mondy]

Nice morning shot of Chris bubbling away:

[crimsone]

And here's the data from Gonzo

000

URNT12 KNHC 021119

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 02/11:09:20Z

B. 18 deg 58 min N

062 deg 53 min W

C. 850 mb 1455 m

D. 55 kt

E. 45 deg 030 nm

F. 125 deg 067 kt

G. 042 deg 014 nm

H. 1003 mb

I. 14 C/ 1536 m

J. 20 C/ 1547 m

K. 17 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 36

MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 11:05:00 Z

;

Either the extrapolated sea level pressure was incorrect on their last pass of the system, or the storm hasn't decreased in pressure even though it's quite obviously intensified.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

Taking a look at the track so far, hmmmm, this looks like it could end up being a nasty one.

I tend to think it will stay east of the islands or follow over the islands and end up pretty much parallel to the GoM gap....sitting offshore of the Bahama Bank.

At the moment, Bahamas, ....pile through, across close to the northern FL Keys and into the Gulf for a second US landfall.....if its even a little further east, we could even be looking at a Carolinas landfall.

Few more plots needed I think, so many possibilities.

Edited August 2, 2006 by SnowBear