Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[parmenides3]

Hi Pm3,

Usually in 10 to 15 year cycles. 1968/69 and 1978/79 come to mind. Since 1979 GW theories have entered the equation. However, the prolonged cold pool in the North Barent makes for encouraging prognosis . Now is the time to deliver.

C

It's certainly overdue, then. I suppose NOAA, or the NSIDC monitor this sort of thing; any suggestions where we can take a look?

:o P

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's certainly overdue, then. I suppose NOAA, or the NSIDC monitor this sort of thing; any suggestions where we can take a look?

:o P

I believe that if the polar vortex does migrate eastwards away from canada then Russia and Europe will experience colder winter conditions. I believe this is a cyclical phenomena and I suspect the move is on. I think there was a time in the 80s when Canada was experiencing relatively less cold conditions but the vortex repositioned in 90/91 and the intense cold came back with avengeance. I think the synoptic change we have experienced since Feb 05 is a sign of this.

BFTP

[carinthian]

It's certainly overdue, then. I suppose NOAA, or the NSIDC monitor this sort of thing; any suggestions where we can take a look?

:o P

HinPm3,

Its not just as simple as taking a look. Advent of cold weather has to be detected and then more importantly forecast . There are no mathematical correct answers to what weather will develop and clues are continually changing. Just watch this space as its seems unreasonable to deny that small oscillations may still be occurring.

C

[Dawlish]

Some very hopeful noises based upon little evidence there BFPT ("I suspect the move is on") and Carinthian ("now is the time to deliver"), based on some pretty flimsy evidence!

Wishing for something never makes it more likely to happen, even though we wish it would!

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some very hopeful noises based upon little evidence there BFPT ("I suspect the move is on") and Carinthian ("now is the time to deliver"), based on some pretty flimsy evidence!

Wishing for something never makes it more likely to happen, even though we wish it would!

Paul

Dawlish

Don't just quote the one sentence. I am not providing evidence of a move, I am describing a situation and that coupled with the arctic reports made, change in Atlantic situ over last 18 months leads to a suspicion by me. It isn't fixed forever and never has been...so it could

BFTP

Edited September 21, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dawlish]

Dawlish

Don't just quote the one sentence. I am not providing evidence of a move, I am describing a situation and that coupled with the arctic reports made, change in Atlantic situ over last 18 months leads to a suspicion by me. It isn't fixed forever and never has been...so it could

BFTP

Good man, thank you for clarifying. It could certainly move, I agree with you completely!

[ScandiHigh]

Some questions for the experts here:

1) Why is there still ice melt in the Arctic basin? (ref: Crysosphere today). I thought ice levels would start to pick up here by now. Some of the russian sectors have picked up recently, but not the arctic basin it seems.

2) By this time last year the Northern flank og Svalbard was locked in ice. Later in the season, however, the northern coast of Svalbard was ice-free. The question is, do you think Svalbard will be ice free this winter as well. My observation is that the northerlies the last couple of days have not moved the ice closer to Svalbard. I suspect the SST is to high for ice forming here?

3) A general question and perhaps difficult to answer is the link between NW Europe winter Temperature and arctic sea ice extent.

Finally, have a look at this map

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/19790116.png

It is amazing how much ice it was that winter. The question is will we ever see such extent (in our lifetime).

Thanks.

[kippure]

Heres barrrow now

[Dawlish]

Some questions for the experts here:

1) Why is there still ice melt in the Arctic basin? (ref: Crysosphere today). I thought ice levels would start to pick up here by now. Some of the russian sectors have picked up recently, but not the arctic basin it seems.

2) By this time last year the Northern flank og Svalbard was locked in ice. Later in the season, however, the northern coast of Svalbard was ice-free. The question is, do you think Svalbard will be ice free this winter as well. My observation is that the northerlies the last couple of days have not moved the ice closer to Svalbard. I suspect the SST is to high for ice forming here?

3) A general question and perhaps difficult to answer is the link between NW Europe winter Temperature and arctic sea ice extent.

Finally, have a look at this map

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/19790116.png

It is amazing how much ice it was that winter. The question is will we ever see such extent (in our lifetime).

Thanks.

HI Scandi.

1. See my posts in the last couple of days, following P3's posted paper. The steep drop in recent days, in the Arctic Basin Ice is probably completely to do with the opening of the Beaufort Sea polynya to the Sea, allowing wind driven, warm, Pacific water into the Western edges of the Arctic Basin and continuing the melting. This is outpacing ice build-up in other areas and explains why this years minimum has probably (as of looking at the Cryosphere site today - below) not yet been reached.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

2. Possibly. My hopeless answer shows what a crappy "expert" I am!

3. Highly debateable, There are certainly links, but it is not simple cause and effect. So many other factors are involved.

My answer to the final question you pose is; unlikely. There is no evidence of a change in the steep Arctic Summer melting trends and little reason, with the whole planet warming, to envisage a reason why the melting trend should suddenly change. I expect that cooling trend to continue for many years yet and I'd go 10/1 against you seeing that much Arctic ice again in your lifetime.

Paul

Edited September 21, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Some questions for the experts here:

1) Why is there still ice melt in the Arctic basin? (ref: Crysosphere today). I thought ice levels would start to pick up here by now. Some of the russian sectors have picked up recently, but not the arctic basin it seems.

2) By this time last year the Northern flank og Svalbard was locked in ice. Later in the season, however, the northern coast of Svalbard was ice-free. The question is, do you think Svalbard will be ice free this winter as well. My observation is that the northerlies the last couple of days have not moved the ice closer to Svalbard. I suspect the SST is to high for ice forming here?

3) A general question and perhaps difficult to answer is the link between NW Europe winter Temperature and arctic sea ice extent.

Finally, have a look at this map

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/19790116.png

It is amazing how much ice it was that winter. The question is will we ever see such extent (in our lifetime).

Thanks.

Hello Scandi - high,

This time last year we had a flow of very warm air around the Big Russian High which had a feed from the Volga Basin right into the Siberian Arctic Ocean. Record low ice was reported in this sector.

This year a prolonged warm feed of Tc air pushed into the Alaskan Sector and into the West Canadian Arctic sector with the resultant delay to re-freezing, particuarly in the Beaufort Sea.

The North Barent cold pool has been established for some time now. The northerly will soon drift the ice into the North of Svalbard by the middle of next week, a bit later than last year as you have pointed out.

I worked on Tiros-N satellite views in 78/79. Yes impressive amounts of ice, but do take into consideration that a substantial amount of sea eddies, traced out by slush and water mixture , at the outer edge of the ice belt was measured in those days. So there is no accuate comparison.

Yes, I am confident that we will see such ice extent again. May be this winter will be close as the "cold " mechanism has been established early as explained on previous posts on this thread.

Best Regards,

C

[parmenides3]

I have to admit to being scuppered by the complexity of the freeze and melt patterns this year. There have been years when the minimum was later than today: 1980, 1987, 1994 & 1997, all around the 24th of September. the average since 1979 is the 8th. The Kara and Laptev seas are clearly refreezing now, following Carinthian reported cold pooling, but The East siberian and Chuchki, as well as the North American areas, are still thawing for the time being.

It looks like we have the coldest area in the GIN and points East; could well be a sign of localised coldness to come, but as most of our Winter weather tends to come from the West, the patterns around Newfoundland, Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea, as well as the lack of real cold over Coastal greenland, might suggest a mild Winter, with 'episodes' of biting cold brought South by the Barents Low.

At the moment, I would be inclined to think that the Autumn and Winter ice-levels in several areas will be lower than ever, probably producing record low levels once again. But I remind myself that seasonal variation is so great, that even this can be no more than a guess at this point in time.

With the reports coming in of increased average pressure and influxes of freshwater into the High Arctic, I would probably concur with dawlish, that we are in a trend of melting, overall, for some time to come. Because there are recorded decadal and multi-decadal oscillations in the Arctic climate, however, it should still be theoretically possible for a similar freeze to the one shown in the 1979 graphic. If I though I was going to live long enough, i'd take you up on that 10/1, Paul.

P

[summer blizzard]

I don't need to say anything!!!!!!!!

[Dawlish]

I have to admit to being scuppered by the complexity of the freeze and melt patterns this year. There have been years when the minimum was later than today: 1980, 1987, 1994 & 1997, all around the 24th of September. the average since 1979 is the 8th. The Kara and Laptev seas are clearly refreezing now, following Carinthian reported cold pooling, but The East siberian and Chuchki, as well as the North American areas, are still thawing for the time being.

It looks like we have the coldest area in the GIN and points East; could well be a sign of localised coldness to come, but as most of our Winter weather tends to come from the West, the patterns around Newfoundland, Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea, as well as the lack of real cold over Coastal greenland, might suggest a mild Winter, with 'episodes' of biting cold brought South by the Barents Low.

At the moment, I would be inclined to think that the Autumn and Winter ice-levels in several areas will be lower than ever, probably producing record low levels once again. But I remind myself that seasonal variation is so great, that even this can be no more than a guess at this point in time.

With the reports coming in of increased average pressure and influxes of freshwater into the High Arctic, I would probably concur with dawlish, that we are in a trend of melting, overall, for some time to come. Because there are recorded decadal and multi-decadal oscillations in the Arctic climate, however, it should still be theoretically possible for a similar freeze to the one shown in the 1979 graphic. If I though I was going to live long enough, i'd take you up on that 10/1, Paul.

P

I agree wholeheartedly with the "theoretically possible" P3, that's why I've only gone 10/1. The, well documented, oscillations will still occur, but they will be fighting against this continued warming trend. Without them, I'd go 100/1 against 1979 Arctic ice cover being seen again in a lifetime.

I think the odds on there being no summer Arctic ice, by 2050 are much shorter than seeing ice coverage back to what it was in 1979.

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree wholeheartedly with the "theoretically possible" P3, that's why I've only gone 10/1. The, well documented, oscillations will still occur, but they will be fighting against this continued warming trend. Without them, I'd go 100/1 against 1979 Arctic ice cover being seen again in a lifetime.

I think the odds on there being no summer Arctic ice, by 2050 are much shorter than seeing ice coverage back to what it was in 1979.

Paul

Paul

I'll take those odds at 10/1...and to make things interesting we will see them by 2015...I want to quote 2012 because I think it will be clear by then that we will witness cooling on a global scale but to match 1979 it may be too ambitious for even me!!

BFTP

[Dawlish]

Paul

I'll take those odds at 10/1...and to make things interesting we will see them by 2015...I want to quote 2012 because I think it will be clear by then that we will witness cooling on a global scale but to match 1979 it may be too ambitious for even me!!

BFTP

OK BFTP! Just for a laugh. The chances of netweather being here, or us talking to each other then, are low, but I'll pay up in 2015, if we are shivering....promise! My own forecast, for the UK, is that every monthly max CET record will have been broken between 2005 and 2015. Will you offer me the same odds as I've given you on the arctic Ice?

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OK BFTP! Just for a laugh. The chances of netweather being here, or us talking to each other then, are low, but I'll pay up in 2015, if we are shivering....promise! My own forecast, for the UK, is that every monthly max CET record will have been broken between 2005 and 2015. Will you offer me the same odds as I've given you on the arctic Ice?

Paul

Of course...seems only fair and decent :lol: Oh I see no reason why we shouldn't still be here

BFTP

Edited September 21, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dawlish]

Of course...seems only fair and decent

BFTP

Merci! :lol:

Paul

[VillagePlank]

OK BFTP! Just for a laugh. The chances of netweather being here, or us talking to each other then, are low, but I'll pay up in 2015, if we are shivering....promise! My own forecast, for the UK, is that every monthly max CET record will have been broken between 2005 and 2015. Will you offer me the same odds as I've given you on the arctic Ice?

Paul

Slightly unfair if you ask me. BFTP, I would further ratify your bet in that each max CET must be broken by an order of magnitude (say one degree) so as to reflect the inference of incessant warming

[West is Best]

Paul

I'll take those odds at 10/1...and to make things interesting we will see them by 2015...I want to quote 2012 because I think it will be clear by then that we will witness cooling on a global scale but to match 1979 it may be too ambitious for even me!!

BFTP

I do wonder how long it will take for the reality of AGW to sink in with some good folk. How many warming records will it require?

Fortunately the mainstream is now really paying this attention.

[VillagePlank]

I do wonder how long it will take for the reality of AGW to sink in with some good folk. How many warming records will it require?

Fortunately the mainstream is now really paying this attention.

I think you have to start with GW (omitting the 'A') and then move onto causes later.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I do wonder how long it will take for the reality of AGW to sink in with some good folk. How many warming records will it require?

Fortunately the mainstream is now really paying this attention.

Sorry West my thoughts are clear and there too many highly qualified people who disagree with AGW....note AGW not GW Paul and I have a fun bet, nowt wrong with that

West

Its a fun bet. Wilson, I can see what you're saying but its Ok

Paul can I add Manley series and not Hadley?

BFTP

Edited September 22, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dawlish]

Sorry West my thoughts are clear and there too many highly qualified people who disagree with AGW....note AGW not GW Paul and I have a fun bet, nowt wrong with that

BFTP

I'm with these 2 above West. 1/3 AGW comes out as the cause, but it's by no means certain. GW is a fact. AGW is still an unproven theory, though, currently, the most likely explanation.

Paul

[BrickFielder]

Data can often be used to show different things. Indeed the NOAA National climate data center records are generally used to show that global warming is taking place. Looking at the individual data for the last three years then the globe has cooled in the last three years. In fact there may even be a bit of a trend since 1998 for cooling. Interestingly parts of central Antartica have been cooling over the last decade as well.

Neither of these facts disprove the concept of global warming but things like sunspot activity, la nina/el nino and decadal and multidecadal patterns may well mask the truth of whats going on. The fundamental fact is at this moment the NCDC data would tend to show a short term cooling, I have strong doubts whether this will continue, but the reduction in CFC's over the last 10 years may be having an affect or la nina conditions over the last years or so. Whether the concept of GW is currently a fact I am unsure but consider it extremely unwise to believe we are having no affect on climate.

NSIDC Reports 19th

Some areas of the ocean show evidence of new ice formation as autumn cooling begins to take hold. However, at the same time, some areas south of the polynya that were formerly ice covered have continued to melt out.What happens in the next week will represent a race between new ice formation in some areas and continued melt in others. Interestingly, while the chances seem low that September 2006 will set a new record for ice extent, it is close to upsetting 2002 as the record low in terms of ice area.

The polynya mentioned in our previous reports, is extremely unusual. The only time we've seen a similar polynya was in 2000. However, the 2000 formation was much smaller and closer to the ice edge, barely enclosed with ice.The bluish tint of the ice near the polynya indicates that the ice is wet from surface melting. Cooler weather in the next several days may slow or stop the melting.

Baltic Sea Ice looks to forming which is a little earlier than last year.

Baltic Sea Ice

Danish Sea Ice Page

Orsted sea ice pages

I think the polynya is likely to slow ice build up in the Bering Sea and Chukchi areas and seem likely to alter the AO pattern during Autumn and early winter.

Edited September 22, 2006 by BrickFielder

[West is Best]

Looking at the individual data for the last three years then the globe has cooled in the last three years.

This is a very loose remark BF. You really need to back up such an assertion with extensive and hard data. If I look, for example, at the 'individual' data for the UK and US it bears no relation to your comment. The US has just experienced its second warmest winter on record, followed by the warmest period of January to August ever ... and the UK the warmest ever month on record. One could go on, but the NOAA merely confirm the GW ... http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2700.htm

Here's the global temperature anomaly map for June to August:

Indeed, the latest anomaly maps bear out the fact that no slowdown is observable in global land temperatures:

The march of AGW is not of course going to be uniform, but AGW is now as much a fact as anything in a post-Kantian hermeneutic can be. But of course the fringe are entitled to their viewpoint. I'm just thankful no-one is paying them attention any more. It's too vital and too dangerous to play games now.

Edited September 22, 2006 by West is Best

[shuggee]

Today's Weather Eye discusses the sea ice situation - and the massive crack.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=787022