Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[carinthian]

Hi all,

I am not sure SB whether that is the reason, however there is now evidence of some good ice formation taking place in the Greenland Basin. Numerous sightings of icebergs for this time of year between Jan Mayen Island and the Denmark Strait as far south as 70N. A few have even landed in the NW of Iceland. The summer cold pool in The North Barent may have helped matters here to be followed by a colder circulation now established much earlier than last year in the Kara Sea.

No doubt time will tell, never the less its looking good folks!

Carinth

Quite a big one observed by coastal aerial patrol on the 13th at 66N in the Denmark Strait ( North Banks NW sector of coastal waters)

C

[carinthian]

Strange how the feed on warm Pacific air has made long in-roads into West Canadian Arctic Region with continued ice melt from the Bering and into the Beaufort Sea compares to this years much earlier start for ice formation now taking places from the Greenland Basin through to the Russian sectors. The normal Atlantic gulf of warmth and associated depressions are not being pushed into the Norwegian Sea (Atlantic storms again seem to be in non- transient mode again). The polar vortex has already become established nearer the European /Russian side of the North Pole. This set up is ripe for the development of potent Arctic depressions to push into The North Barent and even make some in-roads to split the dominence of the Russian Anticyclone at times.

Carinthian

Further to the above post , ice forecaster predict that the ice concentration continues to diminish in the West Canadian Sectors,particuarly open up in the Beaufort Sea .The prolonged warm spell is expected to continue until Wednesday. Some noticeable cold is expected is expected on Monday to be pushed into the North Barent/ Svalbard. See JH post and fax chart.

Carinthian

[carinthian]

Further to the above post , ice forecaster predict that the ice concentration continues to diminish in the West Canadian Sectors,particuarly open up in the Beaufort Sea .The prolonged warm spell is expected to continue until Wednesday. Some noticeable cold is expected is expected on Monday to be pushed into the North Barent/ Svalbard. See JH post and fax chart.

Carinthian

hELLO,

First snowfall of the season in Longyearbyen Harbour last night. Some nice pictures now on the web-cam.

C

[johnholmes]

yep, I did promise you that on Friday in Close Up and on here yesterday

John

[carinthian]

yep, I did promise you that on Friday in Close Up and on here yesterday

John

Spot on John. Looking better up there for Monday. Blowing snow and sub-zero Arctic push. Should make for good viewing in the twilight zone.

C

[parmenides3]

Here you go. Not too loud, now...snow.

:blush: P

I've noticed some unexpected 'patchiness' in the ice thickness analysis images over the last day or two; is there any chance of a late snap-thaw or 'Paulynya' (sic) around the Pole?

[johnholmes]

Spot on John. Looking better up there for Monday. Blowing snow and sub-zero Arctic push. Should make for good viewing in the twilight zone.

C

certainly should. I've looked all over for anything for Jan Meyen but cannot get anything other than the synop data for their. Any ideas where there might be more info? I've e mailed the Norwegian tourist office to ask.

The Met O Fax charts show a real northerly for Svalbard for a few days.

John

[parmenides3]

certainly should. I've looked all over for anything for Jan Meyen but cannot get anything other than the synop data for their. Any ideas where there might be more info? I've e mailed the Norwegian tourist office to ask.

The Met O Fax charts show a real northerly for Svalbard for a few days.

John

Not sure what you want, John, but there's a home page on http://www.jan-mayen.no/

Then you can contact them directly.

The page says for weather info, use Wunderground or Wetterzentrale !

:blush: P

[johnholmes]

tks for that P3, there is a full Met team there with their photos. Maybe I'll drop an e mail to them!

John

[parmenides3]

I haven't tried this before, but I'm going to make an attempt to pin the Canadian Ice service's latest 30 day forecasts, for September into October.

P

20060906000000_FECN05G_0002734800.pdf

20060906000000_FECN07G_0002734776.pdf

20060906000000_FECN09G_0002734748.pdf

[Dawlish]

I haven't tried this before, but I'm going to make an attempt to pin the Canadian Ice service's latest 30 day forecasts, for September into October.

P

Nice one P3....never even mentioned the "paulynya"!

Paul

[carinthian]

Here you go. Not too loud, now...snow.

P

I've noticed some unexpected 'patchiness' in the ice thickness analysis images over the last day or two; is there any chance of a late snap-thaw or 'Paulynya' (sic) around the Pole?

Hi P3,

Not now.There is just not enough heat around the pole for a late thaw. The freezing process now underway in the North Barent. This cold pool is in the ideal location for any of this winters incisive Arctic attacks to our shores.

C

[johnholmes]

hi

Just an update on the arrival of the northerly in the far far north

01007 11063 83110 11033 21073 39954 49964 58005 6//// 77173 888// 333 91115=

This is the observation for Alesund on Svalbard

light nw wind, 13km in slight snow with temp -3.3C and dewpoint -7.3C

below is the picc courtesy of Norwegian web cams a few minutes ago

John

[parmenides3]

That should cheer a few people up! Tks, John.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The snow at Svalbard looks safe to me for at least another week- a fair cold pool around the area with frequent N and NW winds, and the 850s at -10 to -15C. There seems to be little threat to the cold pool in the next 6 days according to the latest GFS output, so I think it can be trusted.

In a week's time our hot southerly air might make it up to there, but that's uncertain, and by then there should be a lot more snow.

[carinthian]

Hi P3,

Not now.There is just not enough heat around the pole for a late thaw. The freezing process now underway in the North Barent. This cold pool is in the ideal location for any of this winters incisive Arctic attacks to our shores.

C

Hi,

Polar winds pushing out of the Angara Basin are now well established in Svalbard this morning after the passage south of the Arctic Front. Forecast of drift sea ice will be close to the Northern reaches by the end of the week.

Hopefully, web cams may be able to pick up some of this drift into the in-lets from some of the sites later.

Smashing pictures there at the moment. Enjoy , before twilight sets in.

Carinthian

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi,

Polar winds pushing out of the Angara Basin are now well established in Svalbard this morning after the passage south of the Arctic Front. Forecast of drift sea ice will be close to the Northern reaches by the end of the week.

Hopefully, web cams may be able to pick up some of this drift into the in-lets from some of the sites later.

Smashing pictures there at the moment. Enjoy , before twilight sets in.

Carinthian

Is our cold pooling in general still holding?

BFTP

[Rollo]

Whilst I realise that cold pooling in the right areas can be a good sign does anyone have records of previous years where really early cold to the north has given us some classic cold spells.

[carinthian]

Whilst I realise that cold pooling in the right areas can be a good sign does anyone have records of previous years where really early cold to the north has given us some classic cold spells.

Hello Rollo,

The North Barent is the best area "as far as the British Isles " is concerned for signs of early cold pool. The persistance of this pool has been noticeable throughout the summer. Ideally, an extention into the Norwegian Basin by Mid -December would be the best scenario . Reanalysis archiv charts for today way back in 1968 is a good example for a prelude to a classic winter cold spell.

Someone might be able to bring it up for you ?

Carinthian

[parmenides3]

I've just found this gem posted on Climate Science, as a comment to an article about Arctic sea-ice areal extent.

It is rather long, and a bit hard to follow, but I thought it was important enough to lift verbatim, as it offers a hypothesis about a subject close to our hearts, on this thread; what is causing the current decline?

Credit to Professor Itoh and the CS website.

There is an interesting report on the anomaly of Arctic sea ice: Simada et al., “Influence of Pacific Summer Water on the recent anomalous reduction of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean,” (http://www.agu.org/meetings/os06/os06-sessions/os06_OS33N.html).

They propose a new mechanism for the decrease in Arctic sea ice considering Pacific summer water and wind, which penetrates into the Arctic ocean. In their mechanism, the penetration of summer water during summer results in the reduction of ice formation during winter as well through a positive feedback mechanism.

Since I don’t understand well the detail of their mechanism, I cite their abstract here although it is a bit long.

“The coherent temporal changes among sea ice concentration, Pacific Summer Water (PSW) temperature, and curl of sea ice motion, both before and after 1998, implies modulation by a positive feedback mechanism. A key process governing the strength of the upper ocean circulation is penetration of wind forcing into the ocean through the sea ice cover depending on sea ice cover itself. Increased areas of open water during summer retards the formation of sea ice near the coast in early winter, during the same time that the winds associated with the Beaufort High increase. The amount of heat carried by PSW into the interior basin by the upper ocean circulation depends on the strength of sea ice motion in early winter. If the momentum flux from the atmosphere is shielded by the large internal ice stresses arising from the near non-slip boundary condition along the Alaskan coast, the wind-driven upper ocean circulation which retroflexes PSW toward the west is insufficient to overcome the eastward buoyancy-boundary current along the slope. But if there is a reduction in ice cover in the vicinity of the coast then the momentum of wind is easily transferred to the sea ice and the underlying upper waters. Therefore reduced ice cover enhances the retroflexion (westward turning) of PSW, just as the warmest pulse of PSW arrives on the Beaufort Slope. This anomalous heat input into the western Canada Basin reduces sea ice formation during winter. This, in turn, results in an imbalance between ice growth in winter and ice melt in summer, and thus sea ice reduction is accelerated. This demonstrates a unique aspect of Arctic Oceanography in that wind forcing is not directly delivered to the ocean but is modulated by ice cover: thus ocean-ice-atmospheric interactions regulate Arctic change. According to the boundary conditions imposed on sea ice motion, thresholds are established that, once crossed, result in catastrophic change. In the mid latitude ocean, in contrast, the northward transport of heat is mainly due to western boundary currents, such as Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, and thus would not show discontinuous or abrupt change.”

This seems much more complicated than the conventional ice-albedo feedback which is said to explain the recent reduction of sea ice in the Arctic region. If their mechanism is correct, it can also explain the difference between the Arctic and the Antarctic because the Antarctic has no similar mechanism.

Comment by Kiminori Itoh — September 19, 2006 @ 2:32 am

P

[carinthian]

I've just found this gem posted on Climate Science, as a comment to an article about Arctic sea-ice areal extent.

It is rather long, and a bit hard to follow, but I thought it was important enough to lift verbatim, as it offers a hypothesis about a subject close to our hearts, on this thread; what is causing the current decline?

Credit to Professor Itoh and the CS website.

There is an interesting report on the anomaly of Arctic sea ice: Simada et al., “Influence of Pacific Summer Water on the recent anomalous reduction of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean,” (http://www.agu.org/meetings/os06/os06-sessions/os06_OS33N.html).

They propose a new mechanism for the decrease in Arctic sea ice considering Pacific summer water and wind, which penetrates into the Arctic ocean. In their mechanism, the penetration of summer water during summer results in the reduction of ice formation during winter as well through a positive feedback mechanism.

Since I don’t understand well the detail of their mechanism, I cite their abstract here although it is a bit long.

“The coherent temporal changes among sea ice concentration, Pacific Summer Water (PSW) temperature, and curl of sea ice motion, both before and after 1998, implies modulation by a positive feedback mechanism. A key process governing the strength of the upper ocean circulation is penetration of wind forcing into the ocean through the sea ice cover depending on sea ice cover itself. Increased areas of open water during summer retards the formation of sea ice near the coast in early winter, during the same time that the winds associated with the Beaufort High increase. The amount of heat carried by PSW into the interior basin by the upper ocean circulation depends on the strength of sea ice motion in early winter. If the momentum flux from the atmosphere is shielded by the large internal ice stresses arising from the near non-slip boundary condition along the Alaskan coast, the wind-driven upper ocean circulation which retroflexes PSW toward the west is insufficient to overcome the eastward buoyancy-boundary current along the slope. But if there is a reduction in ice cover in the vicinity of the coast then the momentum of wind is easily transferred to the sea ice and the underlying upper waters. Therefore reduced ice cover enhances the retroflexion (westward turning) of PSW, just as the warmest pulse of PSW arrives on the Beaufort Slope. This anomalous heat input into the western Canada Basin reduces sea ice formation during winter. This, in turn, results in an imbalance between ice growth in winter and ice melt in summer, and thus sea ice reduction is accelerated. This demonstrates a unique aspect of Arctic Oceanography in that wind forcing is not directly delivered to the ocean but is modulated by ice cover: thus ocean-ice-atmospheric interactions regulate Arctic change. According to the boundary conditions imposed on sea ice motion, thresholds are established that, once crossed, result in catastrophic change. In the mid latitude ocean, in contrast, the northward transport of heat is mainly due to western boundary currents, such as Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, and thus would not show discontinuous or abrupt change.”

This seems much more complicated than the conventional ice-albedo feedback which is said to explain the recent reduction of sea ice in the Arctic region. If their mechanism is correct, it can also explain the difference between the Arctic and the Antarctic because the Antarctic has no similar mechanism.

Comment by Kiminori Itoh — September 19, 2006 @ 2:32 am

P

hi PM3,

Where do you dig these reports from ? Don't understand a thing said. Lots of scientific reports can be taken with a pinch of salt, whether for or against, But care must be taken to ensure that the change is more that just local one.Inevitably change is brought about oscillations of climate. I fear this report is just anmother wild assumption

I have read about for decades.

Not convinced Carinth.

[Anti-Mild]

Out of interest carinthian, what do you attribute the rapidly falling sea ice levels to? It can't be purely down to GW as the temp hasn't increased to such a degree that would cause this much ice loss. Also, if it is synoptic, surely there will be a reversal to the current trend, hopefully before it is too late.

[parmenides3]

hi PM3,

Where do you dig these reports from ? Don't understand a thing said. Lots of scientific reports can be taken with a pinch of salt, whether for or against, But care must be taken to ensure that the change is more that just local one.Inevitably change is brought about oscillations of climate. I fear this report is just anmother wild assumption

I have read about for decades.

Not convinced Carinth.

This one's from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. This link should worK; http://www.agu.org/meetings/os06/os06-sess...os06_OS33N.html

I have to admit to having a similar thought myself, somewhat less scientifically, after reading previously about the increases of warm NW Pacific water into the Beaufort gyre, via the Bering Sea, caused, apparently, by a larger than normal pressure differential between the two areas. They are still saying, though, that the shifts are principally wind-driven. The new idea (to me) is of an atmosphere-ice-ocean coupled system, which at elast seems to make sense. I wouldn't argue with you on this, though, carinth.

P

[carinthian]

Out of interest carinthian, what do you attribute the rapidly falling sea ice levels to? It can't be purely down to GW as the temp hasn't increased to such a degree that would cause this much ice loss. Also, if it is synoptic, surely there will be a reversal to the current trend, hopefully before it is too late.

Hi AM

Good Question ? I am not sure really. Increased emissions of CO2 should only have increased temperatures over the past two decades marginally. Summer levels of ice retention are lower than 1979, however I have noticed that spring ice is lasting longer (first year ice) and Autumn re- freezing is starting later. Winter levels are not far of the so called long term averages. Seasonal cycle corrections have happened before.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi AM

Good Question ? I am not sure really. Increased emissions of CO2 should only have increased temperatures over the past two decades marginally. Summer levels of ice retention are lower than 1979, however I have noticed that spring ice is lasting longer (first year ice) and Autumn re- freezing is starting later. Winter levels are not far of the so called long term averages. Seasonal cycle corrections have happened before.

C

It could be a reasonable explanantion posted by P3. Afterall the arctic was anomalously at least 1c warmer in the late 30s and 40s so maybe a big part of the story?

BFTP