Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[kippure]

Hi Paul,

Greenland summit and coastal averages are spot on for the late August averages, as is many on the buoy reports in the Arctic Basin above 80 degrees North. What encourages me most is the early development of the North Siberian high cell. Remember last year the big Russian High was pumping a warm SWly flow into this area . It remains important that the Arctic cold pool develops early for our on coming "much colder winter ".

C

I hope your right carinthian

[Polar Continental]

Hi Paul,

Greenland summit and coastal averages are spot on for the late August averages, as is many on the buoy reports in the Arctic Basin above 80 degrees North. What encourages me most is the early development of the North Siberian high cell. Remember last year the big Russian High was pumping a warm SWly flow into this area . It remains important that the Arctic cold pool develops early for our on coming "much colder winter ".

C

Cheers carinth, encouraging news, lets hope the pattern continues, last winter was a good starter for 10, hopefully this winter will carry on the trend.

parmenides, here is the Arctic link mate.

Paul

[Stratos Ferric]

Afternoon. Paul.

The Wz charts are following their own prediction from earlier in the week, but at the moment, it seems a bit deceptive. Apart from Barrow (-2c overnight), and Svalbard (7C), most of the temps I can find around the Arctic Circle over the last few days have been mild - sometimes warmer than Scotland has been. There isn't any sign of snow on any of the webcams, apart from Ny Alesund, and then only on the tops.

There is no doubt about the cooling of the central Arctic, but many of the coastal stations don't appear to have felt it yet.

P

The anomaly charts I looked at last night all showed the Arctic (above 80N) consistently cool for the last 7 days. Whilst I don't check them frequently or reglularly, it's certainly a while since I saw cold anomalies for the pole for an extended period. Not dramatically cold, but compared with the 6-12C above par that was common last autumn it's rather a difference. Wouldn't read too much into it yet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, there's been some fairly impressive cold pooling up there at the 850hPa level too- values as low as -15, which we've sometimes struggled to see up there in midwinter.

I'm not convinced as to the site's accuracy at modelling the Antarctic temperatures (they always seem to end up massively above average during the SH winter, and below during the summer) but I think it's accurate for all other regions, including the Arctic (especially since NOAA moved to a system which includes the Arctic in its global climate analysis)

[John Cox]

I hope your right carinthian

Hi Kippure.

Carinthian is rarely wrong

[beng]

I will get shot for saying something like this but remember how stormy and unsettled Dec 78 was --- and what followed :unsure:

Tamara

Just to be pedantic , I don't think Dec 78 was particularly stormy... It will be good to have some decent cold pooling though :o

[Thundery wintry showers]

Dec'78 was quite an unsettled month but it didn't have a long series of depressions surging to the far north, rather a lot of them were southerly tracking.

It was also quite a south-easterly month, and at Durham it was exceptionally wet and dull. Then high pressure took precedence over Scandinavia and retrogressed west to Greenland, setting us up for the famously wintry first three months of 1979.

[parmenides3]

Quick note for those interested; this morning's Barrow webcam showed the first small lumps of ice, and seemed to show the main edge in the distance, though it was hard to tell. Unfortunately, it's dark at the moment, so we'll have to wait an hour or two before we can see what's there. The Lofoten harbour cam also shows one, solitary lump at the bottom of the pick. Just to note, though, that the CT graphs don't yet show a turn in the overall cover, which is still, slowly, falling. Reports from other Arctic Circle stations & webcams continue to show mild, snow-free conditions.

P

[beng]

Yes, sorry, you are right - I subsequently went to check archives and got my years mixed up in that respect. I knew there was a lot of increasingly southerly tracking low pressure and cold pooling edging closer from the north over the xmas period and the few days after but the dramatic events at the end of December that year were not ushered in by stormy weather - although having said that the snowstorm during the biting easterlies from the channel tracker on 30/31 was pretty spectacular with lots of powder snow. Remember it very well - brilliant!

Tamara

I was pretty young, but remember waking up to be told that part of the garden fence had blown over and there was quite a bit of powdery snow on the ground like you say - would love to think I might see at least one more winter like that.

Anyway noticeable today that GFS continues to build high pressure over Northern Siberia which should ultimately allow good cooling in that region.

[January Snowstorm]

I was old enough to be in a pub that night when the snow arrived and walked home with my friends in the middle of the road which was bone dry and blown clear of snow whilst it was piled into drifts over the kerbs and pavements. Huge icicles hung from the bright street lamps like razor teeth and I had to chisel myself out of my coat and scarves when I got home

Anyway,to whizz on forward twenty plus several years - fingers crossed for that cold pooling, and more positive news to come from Carinthian's much appreciated reports

Tamara

It's ok Tamara we are all getting old

[parmenides3]

It's ok Tamara we are all getting old

yes, but a little bit of snow would make us a feel so much younger, wouldn't it. P

[carinthian]

Hi all,

Concerns about that hole in the West Arctic Basin should be short lived. A colder air mass is expected to develop by weekend and with a Northern component to the wind the multi year ice should soon drift into that gap.

C

[kippure]

Are these small ice bergs?

[carinthian]

Are these small ice bergs?

hI kippure,

Bergy Bits. If you look to the horizon you can you make out the main ice pack ( probably ) multi- year ice. On shore wind flow will allow the main edge to drift closer to the Northern coast of Alaska . Harrison Bay is likely to be affected by this advance over the coming days.

C

[VillagePlank]

I was old enough to be in a pub . . .

I was four, and if I recall correctly the snow gave me lots of time indoors to play with my Star Wars toys . . .

[Dawlish]

I was old enough to be in a pub that night when the snow arrived and walked home with my friends in the middle of the road which was bone dry and blown clear of snow whilst it was piled into drifts over the kerbs and pavements. Huge icicles hung from the bright street lamps like razor teeth and I had to chisel myself out of my coat and scarves when I got home

Anyway,to whizz on forward twenty plus several years :lol: - fingers crossed for that cold pooling, and more positive news to come from Carinthian's much appreciated reports :lol:

Tamara

WE are also getting warmer......year....... after year.....after year!

Dawlish

[TEITS]

It is indeed too early to get over excited by anything - but, if the jet can remain near our latitude then although it means having to put up with rain and atlantic winds the 'pain' could be a good thing for the longer term and allow this early cold pooling to remain intact and grow further - ready to strike when it matters in the months down the line. It does not matter in the short-medium term about us being on the wrong side of the jet if the arctic, Greenland and other northern areas are not swamped with sub-tropical air and these colder conditions are allowed to consolidate and intensify progressively. A vigourous thermal gradient inducing some beefy lows may ironically be seen as a good sign for colder than usual conditions to the north providing a greater contrast of air masses than we have seen in recent autumns and as long as the jet does not kick too far north, aka GIN corridor pattern, then good things may eventually follow.

I can see many fretting over a westerly autumn and early winter - but this may be worth 'enduring' for much better things by the end of the year/start of next as the jet lowers further and the polar front descends the country.

I will get shot for saying something like this but remember how stormy and unsettled Dec 78 was --- and what followed

Tamara

Your quiet right SP and 1981 is another good example. All 3 Autumn month's were extremely unsettled with even an outbreak of Tornado's in November and yet both Dec/Early Jan 82 were extremely cold & wintry with some record breaking min temps.

[Anti-Mild]

WE are also getting warmer......year....... after year.....after year!

Dawlish

Not true. The last 4 years have been getting progressively cooler (slightly) and without opening another can of worms I believe that the cooling trend will continue (with some outliers) for quite some time. Perhaps not globally but locally I think we will experience a Winter with a CET of less than 2c sometime in the next decade.

[parmenides3]

What are the dominant forces acting on our Winter weather?

And hello, Paul; nice to have you back. Make sure you behave.

P

[John Cox]

Not true. The last 4 years have been getting progressively cooler (slightly) and without opening another can of worms I believe that the cooling trend will continue (with some outliers) for quite some time. Perhaps not globally but locally I think we will experience a Winter with a CET of less than 2c sometime in the next decade.

Hi Anti-Mild.

I spent most of last winter trying to prove to my Irish counterparts on nw that last winter was the coldest in Dublin since 2001.

I dont think I was sucessfull but the last two winters have definately bucked the trend.

[acbrixton]

And hello, Paul; nice to have you back. Make sure you behave.

P

Seconded!

Regards

ACB

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What are the dominant forces acting on our Winter weather?

Sarah 'at least it will be mild' WILMSHURST and Nina 'super mild' RIDGE.

Dawlish hello again, what odds did you offer on coming back :lol:

BFTP

[parmenides3]

Sarah 'at least it will be mild' WILMSHURST and Nina 'super mild' RIDGE.

Dawlish hello again, what odds did you offer on coming back :lol:

BFTP

:lol:

[kippure]

Hi Anti-Mild.

I spent most of last winter trying to prove to my Irish counterparts on nw that last winter was the coldest in Dublin since 2001.

I dont think I was sucessfull but the last two winters have definately bucked the trend.

Indeed John ,it was very cold in Dublin last winter. Your wise words didnt fall on deaf ears.

And an increase in the "Bergy Bits"

Edited August 31, 2006 by kippure

[carinthian]

Indeed John ,it was very cold in Dublin last winter. Your wise words didnt fall on deaf ears.

And an increase in the "Bergy Bits"

YEP kIPPURE,

Those" Bergy Bits "are drifting on-shore as forecast. Note the main edge waiting in the wings. Northerly drift of about 15 to 20 mph bringing in the ice a bit closer.

C