Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[Rollo]

Agreed,

If I had no family and they would let me in, thats where I would live.

The quality of that cam is unbelievable.

Looks great to me John-I have saved the site to favourites-just one problem-where is the nearest golf course!

[parmenides3]

Looks great to me John-I have saved the site to favourites-just one problem-where is the nearest golf course! :lol:

http://www.pmfgolfguide.com/norway/narvik_golf_club.htm

There you go!

P

I can't be certain, but I think the Svein Nordahl cam is showing the ice edge; it's distant enough that it could be cloud, or snow covered hills; whatever it is, the feature has been there for 2-3 days, now.

:lol: P

Edited September 2, 2006 by parmenides3

[J10]

I imagine that it's Nordkapp, like the following two. If so, it's as far North as you can get in Norway, facing the Arctic.

It's so nice, I look every day. The picture/view changes now and again, too.

P

The place displayed is Honningsvag, which is in the North Cape at the far north of Norway, i've been told my grandfather came from there.

http://www.northcapeonline.com/modules.php...0&page_id=1

This photo was taken in January this year. Stunning IMO.

[parmenides3]

The place displayed is Honningsvag, which is in the North Cape at the far north of Norway, i've been told my grandfather came from there.

http://www.northcapeonline.com/modules.php...0&page_id=1

This photo was taken in January this year. Stunning IMO.

Well done, Jackone; thanks for clearing that up. I was about 20 miles out; at least the cam is pointing towards Norkapp. Any distant relatives there that John can visit?

P

[johnholmes]

hi

this is the current picc

if my memory serves me correctly, its taken from a smallish mountain a bit inland from the town.

[J10]

Well done, Jackone; thanks for clearing that up. I was about 20 miles out; at least the cam is pointing towards Norkapp. Any distant relatives there that John can visit?

P

No idea, our families lost contact in the 1950s, and I've no idea if there any relatives still around, a bit sad really.

John - I've never been to any part of Norway, let alone that area, what is it like up there.

[carinthian]

No idea, our families lost contact in the 1950s, and I've no idea if there any relatives still around, a bit sad really.

John - I've never been to any part of Norway, let alone that area, what is it like up there.

Hi Jackone, Our John Holmes should know really, because I have a feelin that his ancestors rowed up the Humber Flue with the Viking warriors en - route to Jorvik (YORK ) passing well known villages as Holme of the Wolds and Holme of Spolding Moor. Our JH is a river tyrant from the land of Norse.

C

[parmenides3]

Hi Jackone, Our John Holmes should know really, because I have a feelin that his ancestors rowed up the Humber Flue with the Viking warriors en - route to Jorvik (YORK ) passing well known villages as Holme of the Wolds and Holme of Spolding Moor. Our JH is a river tyrant from the land of Norse.

C

That's just given me a thought; if the Vikings were able to cross the Atlantic 100 years ago, does this suggest that they had some kind of weather forecasting skills? That would make JH's talent genetic.

BTW, Carinth, when can we expect an update on the ice situation?

P

[carinthian]

That's just given me a thought; if the Vikings were able to cross the Atlantic 100 years ago, does this suggest that they had some kind of weather forecasting skills? That would make JH's talent genetic.

BTW, Carinth, when can we expect an update on the ice situation?

P

jh related to Thor the Scandinavian "God of thunder" and beware also known as the "hammer "

Pm3 No Advance of the drift ice expected this week.

C

[parmenides3]

jh related to Thor the Scandinavian "God of thunder" and beware also known as the "hammer "

Pm3 No Advance of the drift ice expected this week.

C

Also noticed Alaska ice desk predicts clear North passage for next few weeks and no significant reformation before the end of the month; HP systems to the north are still pulling in warm air. Can't work out why the Kara Sea levels are still dropping, though; what have I missed?

P

[johnholmes]

oh - a Viking, what me! Not got that far back with the family history, but always thought I was Anglo-Saxon, but who knows.

[parmenides3]

oh - a Viking, what me! Not got that far back with the family history, but always thought I was Anglo-Saxon, but who knows.

You are aware that your name is an anagram of 'Njos No-helm', then? I think the evidence speaks for itself.

P

[Scarf-Carrot-Coal]

Hi Jackone, Our John Holmes should know really, because I have a feelin that his ancestors rowed up the Humber Flue with the Viking warriors en - route to Jorvik (YORK ) passing well known villages as Holme of the Wolds and Holme of Spolding Moor. Our JH is a river tyrant from the land of Norse.

C

That'll be Holme-on-Spalding Moor - I was a parish councillor there until about 2 weeks ago. Never heard of Holme of the Wolds? Where is that then?

[carinthian]

That'll be Holme-on-Spalding Moor - I was a parish councillor there until about 2 weeks ago. Never heard of Holme of the Wolds? Where is that then?

Hi Sue, Holme on the Wolds, between Market Weighton, Arras Hill and Beverley on the Driffield Road. Has one of the highest church spires in the county. Played many cricket games there and drank at a very good pub called "The Pipe and Glass " Have you moved out to NZ permanently ?

Cheers

C

[carinthian]

Also noticed Alaska ice desk predicts clear North passage for next few weeks and no significant reformation before the end of the month; HP systems to the north are still pulling in warm air. Can't work out why the Kara Sea levels are still dropping, though; what have I missed?

P

Hi Pm3,

Last you will remember, minimum ice levels were recorded in Mid-October in the Siberian Sectors. That was very late due to the exceptional pump of warm air last Autumn into that region. I don't expect that to be repeated this Autumn. High pressure cells and well placed in the Arctic Regions at the moment with -AO period on-going with warm air penetrations limited. The main ice edge in the Laptev and Kara Sea is still more prominent than last year

A lot of rainfall recently between the Taymyr and Lena Delta and at times snowfall on the mountain ranges ( this time last year it was warm and dry)

C

[reef]

Interestingly the cryosphere site is suggesting that we may have reached the minimum ice level this summer quite early:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Notice how the negative anolmoly has gradually become less during the month of August. This is no doubt due to the early formation of a strong polar vortex along with the associated cold air, which has helped to halt further ice melt. This is however quite suprising after the warm July the northern hemisphere had, which saw warm air pumped northwards into the arctic circle.

[Dawlish]

Interestingly the cryosphere site is suggesting that we may have reached the minimum ice level this summer quite early:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Notice how the negative anolmoly has gradually become less during the month of August. This is no doubt due to the early formation of a strong polar vortex along with the associated cold air, which has helped to halt further ice melt. This is however quite suprising after the warm July the northern hemisphere had, which saw warm air pumped northwards into the arctic circle.

Agreed and quite possibly the explanation. We are still fairly well below the mean ice cover, for this time of year, compared to the last 30 (probably the last 10/15 are a better comparison from Satellite data) and it will be interesting to see if this has any effect on the winter climate.

Of course the real difficulty is that we probably won't know the effect that the amount of ice cover in this early September has had on the winter climate, even when the winter is over! Some day we might understand the relationship much better.

Paul

Edited September 5, 2006 by Dawlish

[kold weather]

Yeah that is quite intresting indeed Reef, because the June/July 2006 heatwaves were very potent indeed and I'd thought that the min ice level would have been later because of this but it does indeed at these early stages looks like it may have already bottomed out.

I'd dare say its the solar mins impact on things that has helped it to cool faster then expected coupled with as Reef says quite a potent polar vortex. (Though both could go hand in hand I'd guess!)

[parmenides3]

Evening all. It does look like the minimum might have been reached already this year, as the Central region now seems to have turned the corner; but I'll leave Carinthian to do a proper analysis.

With reference to Paul's (Dawlish) post, the discussion on the Alaske forecast desk might be relevant, so here is an extract (courtesy of NOAA/NWS)

...SEPTEMBER MONTHLY YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK...

THIS ICE SEASON REALLY DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD MATCH IN OUR HISTORICAL

RECORDS. 1995 IS CLOSE BUT THE ICE WAS FURTHER OFF SHORE FROM BARROW

TO FLAXMAN ISLAND. 1991 IS CLOSE BUT THE ICE WAS MUCH MORE SEVERE

NEAR CANADA. 1978 WAS VERY CLOSE EXCEPT THE RUSSIAN ICE WAS MORE

SEVERE. 2001 HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT YEAR GROUP MATCH THIS

SUMMER BUT 2001 WAS BOTH TOO COLD OVER RUSSIA AND CANADA AND TOO WARM

OVER ALASKA. 1986 WAS ALSO COLDER OVER RUSSIA AND CANADA BUT THE ICE

CONDITIONS NEAR ALASKA WERE ALMOST AS SEVERE AS 2006 INCLUDING THE

ANALYSIS OF MULTI YEAR ICE CLOSE TO THE ALASKA COAST.

I TURNED TO THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION

CENTER TO HELP WITH MY DECISION MAKING PROCESS. THE CLIMATE CENTER

HAS A HISTORICAL RECORD OF EL NINO VS. LA NINA PACIFIC OCEAN SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT GOES BACK ON THEIR WEB SITE TO

1950. I DECIDED TO USE THESE HISTORICAL PATTERNS TO HELP IDENTIFY

WHICH OF THE ABOVE YEARS MIGHT HAVE A SIMILAR CLIMATE PATTERN AS THIS

YEAR. 2006 BEGAN WITH A MODERATE LA NINA TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE

PACIFIC...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL. BY MID 2006 THE PACIFIC WAS IN

A NEUTRAL...OR NEAR NORMAL..STATE. THE CLIMATE CENTER/S FORECAST FOR

THE REMAINDER OF 2006 IS FOR THE OCEAN TO GRADUALLY WARM TO A WEAK EL

NINO BY THE END OF THE YEAR. OVERALL 2006 WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING

YEAR FOR THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

HERE IS HOW THE OTHER ICE YEARS COMPARE...1995 STARTED WITH A STRONG

EL NINO AND COOLED TO A MODERATE LA NINA. 1991 STARTED WITH A WEAK EL

NINO AND WARMED TO END WITH A STRONG EL NINO. 1978 STARTED WITH A

WEAK EL NINO AND COOLED TO A WEAK LA NINA OR NEUTRAL CONDITION. 2001

STARTED WITH A WEAK LA NINA AND WARMED TO A NEUTRAL CONDITION THEN

BEGAN TO COOL AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR. 1986 STARTED WITH A

WEAK LA NINA AND WARMED TO A MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO...THE SAME

TYPE OF PATTERN WE ARE EXPECTING FOR 2006.

THE YEAR GROUP FOR SEPTEMBER IS 1986...FOLLOWED BY 2001 AND 1991.

THE EL NINO VS. LA NINA SIGNATURE WAS STRONGER IN 1986 THAN IT IS

TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON EL NINO I HIGHLY RECOMMEND THE CLIMATE

PREDICTION CENTER/S WEB SITE AT (LOWER CASE ON ONE LINE) HTTP://

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/

ENSO_ADVISORY/INDEX.HTML.

So, the local office for Alaska looks at 1986 and 2001 as difficult, but referrable matches. So, what was our Winter like in these two years?

Not pure science, but this might help give some signal as to what to expect.

The full report can be read on http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php scroll down for the updates.

P

[Anti-Mild]

Even if the rest of the winter was mild rubbish, if we could get a cold spell like that of January 1987 I would be well chuffed, if a little chilly !!

[parmenides3]

Even if the rest of the winter was mild rubbish, if we could get a cold spell like that of January 1987 I would be well chuffed, if a little chilly !!

You never know, A-M, you never know...

Can you remember what 2001-02 was like?

P

[Anti-Mild]

You never know, A-M, you never know...

Can you remember what 2001-02 was like?

P

If I remember rightly, pretty poor, especially after 2000-01 which was very snowy in my neck of the woods.

[parmenides3]

Just thought I'd share this with you. It's a lovely day in Barrow, (Alaska, not Cumbria) ATM, and the sea ice is the clearest I've seen yet.

P

[Dawlish]

Evening all. It does look like the minimum might have been reached already this year, as the Central region now seems to have turned the corner; but I'll leave Carinthian to do a proper analysis.

With reference to Paul's (Dawlish) post, the discussion on the Alaske forecast desk might be relevant, so here is an extract (courtesy of NOAA/NWS)

So, the local office for Alaska looks at 1986 and 2001 as difficult, but referrable matches. So, what was our Winter like in these two years?

Not pure science, but this might help give some signal as to what to expect.

The full report can be read on http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php scroll down for the updates.

P

Thanks for the info. The difficulties of matching seem to reflect my comments about predicting future conditions by looking at the past, on the other thread, P3

[parmenides3]

Thanks for the info. The difficulties of matching seem to reflect my comments about predicting future conditions by looking at the past, on the other thread, P3

Seen and duly noted.

:)P