Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[parmenides3]

It could be a reasonable explanantion posted by P3. Afterall the arctic was anomalously at least 1c warmer in the late 30s and 40s so maybe a big part of the story?

BFTP

The only thing, BFTP, is I don't know that the sea-ice levels declined suring the previous warm period; perhaps someone can link to the old record. I haven't read of it, at least, which still leaves us wondering why. Also, last time, (though there was nobody there to see), there isn't any record of a simultaneous reduction of Glacial ice, for example, from Greenland.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The only thing, BFTP, is I don't know that the sea-ice levels declined suring the previous warm period; perhaps someone can link to the old record. I haven't read of it, at least, which still leaves us wondering why. Also, last time, (though there was nobody there to see), there isn't any record of a simultaneous reduction of Glacial ice, for example, from Greenland.

P

That is the fascinating point...ice levels were apparently a lot higher then even with warmer temps and the speed up of warming was far more steep and pronounced then than over the last 30 years. Thats why I think the explanantion has merit and thats why I continue to stand against the cold sources don't exist and globalm warming is melting the arctic chants. No one and I mean no one ever tries to counter this point. The fact and BIG fact is the arctic was warmer and warmed much quicker back then yet the sea ice remained greater...and since then we ahve had an arctic cooldown in between. A fact nicely ignored by some. Your post IMO has some decent merit

BFTP

Edited September 19, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[summer blizzard]

Interesting discussion which seems to make sense.

I just thought that i would post a chart showing why ice melt is still occuring in the Canadian Basin...

However if we look a week ahead, the Polar Front has pushed well south, and ice melt is able to start in the Canadian Basin...

Of course the worrying thing is the lack of a significant cold pool, most likely due to the recent building of the Scandinavian High...

[Anti-Mild]

I'm sure that by the end of October the cold pool will be pretty impressive, hopefully centred around the Barents Sea !

[parmenides3]

P

That is the fascinating point...ice levels were apparently a lot higher then even with warmer temps and the speed up of warming was far more steep and pronounced then than over the last 30 years. Thats why I think the explanantion has merit and thats why I continue to stand against the cold sources don't exist and globalm warming is melting the arctic chants. No one and I mean no one ever tries to counter this point. The fact and BIG fact is the arctic was warmer and warmed much quicker back then yet the sea ice remained greater...and since then we ahve had an arctic cooldown in between. A fact nicely ignored by some. Your post IMO has some decent merit

BFTP

No credit due to me. I'm afraid. Thing about the historic data you refer to is, how many data sources, where from, how reliable?

I can accept, from the material I've seen, that there was a warm period in the 30s-40s which was comparable to the current one; what makes the current one different is that it is happening at the same time as warming in other places, which can easily lead one to assume that there is a connection. This is one of the reasons why all the ideas and papers on the Arctic contain such uncertainty; there really is no way to be certain about what happened in the pre-satellite era, or why the changes are happening now. We can be certain that they are happening, have been happening for a while, and have been accelerating since around 1999.

[Dawlish]

hi PM3,

Where do you dig these reports from ? Don't understand a thing said. Lots of scientific reports can be taken with a pinch of salt, whether for or against, But care must be taken to ensure that the change is more that just local one.Inevitably change is brought about oscillations of climate. I fear this report is just anmother wild assumption

I have read about for decades.

Not convinced Carinth.

Come on Carinthian; to say "lots of scientific reports can be taken with a pinch of salt", and that you fear that is "another wild assumption", when you confess to not having understood it, is almost a slur on the research produced by people who are generally very good at what they do and whose research is peer assessed prior to publication. Some of this research will be vital in understanding the processes at work in the present trend towards reducing ice in the arctic. Like you, I dearly wish they would write in more penetrable English; someone has regurgitated conference and lecture-speak, but it doesn't mean that what they are saying is not valid. I can't see anything wrong with Climate Science's credentials, so I have little reason to doubt the research.

The paper is saying that the movement of the ice is crucial to the penetration of warm surface water from the Pacific. If the ice is thick, the Pacific Summer Water (PSW) finds it hard to penetrate and winter ice-build-up is quick. If the Ice is able to move Westwards, during the summer it allows penetration of the warmer water and allows it to turn Westwards in to the Canadian Basin and the Beaufort Sea (the "retroflexion", bit). Recently, since 1998, at least, according to the research, a positive feedback mechanism appears to have taken over. Thinner sea ice is annually being blown further Westwards by winds. This, in turn, allows more wind-blown surface warmer water into the Canadian Basin and thus slows the build-up of winter Sea ice. This leads to less ice the next summer and so on.

This would fit with both the Chukchi Sea and the Beafort Sea still showing reducing ice areas and, possibly, with the development of the large, unprecedented polynya in the Beaufort Sea. If this feedback mechanism continues, the authors go on to say, that it could result in catastrophic decline in Western Arctic ice.

It does imply a synoptic aspect to ice formation in the Canadian/Alaskan Arctic (changes in wind direction), which could, of course, reverse, but if a warmer world is causing the synoptic changes, the reverse would be unlikely.

Thanks P3 you do have a knack of dredging up these gems! Keep it up!

Paul

[carinthian]

Come on Carinthian; to say "lots of scientific reports can be taken with a pinch of salt", and that you fear that is "another wild assumption", when you confess to not having understood it, is almost a slur on the research produced by people who are generally very good at what they do and whose research is peer assessed prior to publication. Some of this research will be vital in understanding the processes at work in the present trend towards reducing ice in the arctic. Like you, I dearly wish they would write in more penetrable English; someone has regurgitated conference and lecture-speak, but it doesn't mean that what they are saying is not valid. I can't see anything wrong with Climate Science's credentials, so I have little reason to doubt the research.

The paper is saying that the movement of the ice is crucial to the penetration of warm surface water from the Pacific. If the ice is thick, the Pacific Summer Water (PSW) finds it hard to penetrate and winter ice-build-up is quick. If the Ice is able to move Westwards, during the summer it allows penetration of the warmer water and allows it to turn Westwards in to the Canadian Basin and the Beaufort Sea (the "retroflexion", bit). Recently, since 1998, at least, according to the research, a positive feedback mechanism appears to have taken over. Thinner sea ice is annually being blown further Westwards by winds. This, in turn, allows more wind-blown surface warmer water into the Canadian Basin and thus slows the build-up of winter Sea ice. This leads to less ice the next summer and so on.

This would fit with both the Chukchi Sea and the Beafort Sea still showing reducing ice areas and, possibly, with the development of the large, unprecedented polynya in the Beaufort Sea. If this feedback mechanism continues, the authors go on to say, that it could result in catastrophic decline in Western Arctic ice.

It does imply a synoptic aspect to ice formation in the Canadian/Alaskan Arctic (changes in wind direction), which could, of course, reverse, but if a warmer world is causing the synoptic changes, the reverse would be unlikely.

Thanks P3 you do have a knack of dredging up these gems! Keep it up!

Paul

Glad you understand mate. Claptraps comes to mine.

C

I'm sure that by the end of October the cold pool will be pretty impressive, hopefully centred around the Barents Sea !

hI AM,

I am backing that.

Cheers

C

[John Cox]

Hi C,

Just to say hi and let you know that I have been following all the posts and interesting they have been indeed. Things have been different this year but based on your views from previous years I follow with interest (and some other experienced members ) this winters outcome. I have not had much time to post at the moment but you have my full support on this interesting thread.

Keep up the good work.

Edited September 19, 2006 by John Cox

[carinthian]

Hi C,

Just to say hi and let you know that I have been following all the posts and interesting they have been indeed. Things have been different this year but based on your views from previous years I follow with interest (and some other experienced members ) this winters outcome. I have not had much time to post at the moment but you have my full support on this interesting thread.

Keep up the good work.

hI John,

Thanks. Its going to be an interesting winter alright. The Arctic front has already made good progress southwards early. Atlantic storms pushing tropical air into the British Isles, but where has the Atlantic zonalty gone ? Another winter blocking seems on the cards now.

Kind Regards to you and all in the old country.

C

[Dawlish]

Glad you understand mate. Claptraps comes to mine.

C

Claptrap? You really didn't understand the research C. That's a shame - and a surprise - for claptrap, it was not.

Paul

Edited September 20, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Claptrap? You really didn't understand the research C. That's a shame - and a surprise - for claptrap, it was not.

Paul

This thread was primarily opened to report latest Arctic Sea-ice and weather conditions as it happens. There are many other sites about enviromental change you can discuss to your hearts content. Here hundreds of scientific reports and journals based on theories by chance where you can substantialize the evidence with your undoubted knowledge.

Your game to contravene many posts on this site have no truck with me.

Bye

C

[Dawlish]

This thread was primarily opened to report latest Arctic Sea-ice and weather conditions as it happens. There are many other sites about enviromental change you can discuss to your hearts content. Here hundreds of scientific reports and journals based on theories by chance where you can substantialize the evidence with your undoubted knowledge.

Your game to contravene many posts on this site have no truck with me.

Bye

C

Sorry? I thought I was replying to P3's excellent link?!? The research is not particularly about climate change, it is a paper discussing why the build-up of Arctic winter ice is not as much as might be expected. What's this "bye" business? Come on C, there's really no need for that. The paper gives a serious insight into why ice build up in the Canadian Basin is currently less than might be expected and less than in other areas of the Arctic and is well worth our consideration. It may well help to explain the polynya in the Beaufort Sea, which you remarked upon and doesn't have any explanation, as far as I can see. You may think it is "claptrap", but others and myself may well not. I know it is a dreadfully written paper and plumbs the depths of understandable English and I agree with you there, but get below the surface and there is some research that has really made me think. It is worth discussion, don't you think?

The old theories of differences in ice albedo, being the main cause of melting in the Arctic are being challenged in the article. It will be interesting to see if the Canadian Basin/Northern Alaska area continues to lag behind the rest of the Arctic in ice build-up through the next couple of months. if this really is a positive feedback loop, it will have implications for future ice in the Western Arctic, for sure.

Paul

Edited September 20, 2006 by Dawlish

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No credit due to me. I'm afraid. Thing about the historic data you refer to is, how many data sources, where from, how reliable?

I can accept, from the material I've seen, that there was a warm period in the 30s-40s which was comparable to the current one; what makes the current one different is that it is happening at the same time as warming in other places, which can easily lead one to assume that there is a connection. This is one of the reasons why all the ideas and papers on the Arctic contain such uncertainty; there really is no way to be certain about what happened in the pre-satellite era, or why the changes are happening now. We can be certain that they are happening, have been happening for a while, and have been accelerating since around 1999.

P

Not comparable, quicker and warmer than now. That sums it up re what happened pre satellite era...are we really at a minimum? Would satellites have measured the ice extent different to how it was recorded back then? Interesting reading Carinths reports and observations and awaited by me with great interest.

Are we seeing the polar vortex repositioning itself as if we are that would certainly improve things for us colder winter wise. I remember Roger mentioning the movement of this and I believe it is linked to the movement of the magnetic pole which has moved considerably.

Good thread this. Important to absorb different findings I think but not accept any singular report as exact, correct, wrong unless obviously complete tosh.

BFTP

[Dawlish]

Latest reports from the NSIDC, indicate that this year's minimum is close but may not quite have been reached, mainly due to the breaching of the polynya in the Beaufort Sea, which has allowed more warm Pacific water to be driven further Westwards, into it, through the breach, continuing ice-melt in this region. There's a good, clear graphic on the site, showing this. Again, see P3's link. If the ice were to stop declining today, this would make 2006 4th on the all-time low Arctic ice list.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...cenews.html#top

Paul

[carinthian]

High pressure to build over the Beaufort Sea by weekend cutting off the supply of warmth into this region that has been much in evidence for the past few weeks. Cooling temperatures look set at long last to take hold.

C

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...cenews.html#top

The n/e sector seems to be making a come back to the median, although it seems that the north/north-west is still (and has continued to) lag behind.

[parmenides3]

Evening all. Is it safe for me to put my head above the parapet yet? :blink:

Carinth., If I introduced, inadvertently, a GW connection into the sea-ice thread, my apologies; I thought the paper offered an interesting hypothesis to explain the recent conditions, that is all. Perhaps your instinct, to look ahead rather than back, is the best in this case; let's speculate what the coming Winter will bring.

I am perturbed by discussion of the Polar vortex; clearly, I don't quite have a grip on this concept yet. Could somebody explain in more detail, please?

Dawlish: If there were to be a second melting period, this late in the year, I would be very surprised, and also quite concerned. Perhaps you or Carinth. can confirm that this is something that has not been recorded before?

Please remember, everyone, that we have more in common than we have that divides us. Can we agree to disagree politely? I'd hate to see such a fascinating and valuable thread lost in minor disagreements, especially if I am partly to blame.

:o P

[Rollo]

To be honest P3 I think you add to the discussion and as Carinthian would be the first to say IMO-your input is more than welcome. I read all the posts on this thread and while fully admitting my knowledge is very thin I hope that I am gradually understanding the subject-keep up the good work.

[parmenides3]

To be honest P3 I think you add to the discussion and as Carinthian would be the first to say IMO-your input is more than welcome. I read all the posts on this thread and while fully admitting my knowledge is very thin I hope that I am gradually understanding the subject-keep up the good work.

Tks Rollo. :blink: Like you, I'm a learner in this area. I found http://polarmet.mps.ohio-state.edu/cgi-bin/catSearch.cgi helpful; one of Carinthian's originally, I believe. If you are unclear, do please ask for explanations; most of us love an opportunity to show our colours!

:o P

[carinthian]

Evening all. Is it safe for me to put my head above the parapet yet? :blink:

Carinth., If I introduced, inadvertently, a GW connection into the sea-ice thread, my apologies; I thought the paper offered an interesting hypothesis to explain the recent conditions, that is all. Perhaps your instinct, to look ahead rather than back, is the best in this case; let's speculate what the coming Winter will bring.

I am perturbed by discussion of the Polar vortex; clearly, I don't quite have a grip on this concept yet. Could somebody explain in more detail, please?

Dawlish: If there were to be a second melting period, this late in the year, I would be very surprised, and also quite concerned. Perhaps you or Carinth. can confirm that this is something that has not been recorded before?

Please remember, everyone, that we have more in common than we have that divides us. Can we agree to disagree politely? I'd hate to see such a fascinating and valuable thread lost in minor disagreements, especially if I am partly to blame.

:o P

Hello Pm3,

Safe as houses. You have a great in-put on this thread that is well thought of. The polar vortex is a complex cyclonic circulation found in the upper layers and is a persistant feature of the Arctic. Usually found over NE Canada (Arctic Region ) If it were to re-locate further Eastwards its associated trough would more likely help to push Arctic air mass into Europe rather than the Eastern half of North America. So great interest remains for the coming winter. A change looks likely. Late melting can still occur but it looks like minimum levels have been reached.

Regards

C

[Guest Viking141]

Interesting stuff C. If this were to happen I take it we could look forward to a very snowy winter? Also is this likely to change just for one winter or is it more likely to be a more prolonged change?

[carinthian]

Interesting stuff C. If this were to happen I take it we could look forward to a very snowy winter? Also is this likely to change just for one winter or is it more likely to be a more prolonged change?

Hi Viking,

For where you live certainly so. Arctic like winter. It takes more than one winter to re-locate but has in the past positioned itself away from its normal location. Our snowiest winters have come from an upper trough formed by the an early established North Barent cyclonic circulation.

C

[Dawlish]

Evening all. Is it safe for me to put my head above the parapet yet? :blink:

Carinth., If I introduced, inadvertently, a GW connection into the sea-ice thread, my apologies; I thought the paper offered an interesting hypothesis to explain the recent conditions, that is all. Perhaps your instinct, to look ahead rather than back, is the best in this case; let's speculate what the coming Winter will bring.

I am perturbed by discussion of the Polar vortex; clearly, I don't quite have a grip on this concept yet. Could somebody explain in more detail, please?

Dawlish: If there were to be a second melting period, this late in the year, I would be very surprised, and also quite concerned. Perhaps you or Carinth. can confirm that this is something that has not been recorded before?

Please remember, everyone, that we have more in common than we have that divides us. Can we agree to disagree politely? I'd hate to see such a fascinating and valuable thread lost in minor disagreements, especially if I am partly to blame.

:o P

I don't think there will be a second melting period at all P3. I think we are very close to this year's overall minimum, but some areas are still declining, whereas ice is beginning to build again, in others.

I've just been applying the sense in your link paper to the current ice-decline in the Beaufort Sea, with the breaching of the polynya, the continuing ice decline in the Chukchi Sea and the historically low (and still declining this year) levels of ice in the Arctic Basin. All are probably due to a wind-blown influx of warmer Pacific water, if the research paper is to be believed. I see no reason to disbelieve it and I wonder whether the possibility of a positive feedback loop, possibly in evidence since the record warm global year of 1998, may continue to exacerbate these declining levels of ice, in the Canadian Basin, in the future.

Edited September 20, 2006 by Dawlish

[parmenides3]

Thanks Carinthian. Do you know how frequently such a shift happens, and when the last one was? And how far would the vortex have to move to have the kind of effects you are talking about in response to Viking?

There. I like to make your life easy!

Paul: I know there is work being done on two of the key elements in this hypothesis; the influx of Pacific waters over the Bering 'shelf' and the status/stability of the Beaufort gyre. I think (not sure) they are both featured in ICARP II, this year's conference in Denmark. Link on: http://www.icarp.dk/WGreports/Start.html

This is quite a specialised set of papers, in places, but not unreadable (unlike the stuff translated from the Japanese!) For someone keen to learn more, it makes fascinating reading, if you're patient.

:o P

[carinthian]

Thanks Carinthian. Do you know how frequently such a shift happens, and when the last one was? And how far would the vortex have to move to have the kind of effects you are talking about in response to Viking?

There. I like to make your life easy!

Paul: I know there is work being done on two of the key elements in this hypothesis; the influx of Pacific waters over the Bering 'shelf' and the status/stability of the Beaufort gyre. I think (not sure) they are both featured in ICARP II, this year's conference in Denmark. Link on: http://www.icarp.dk/WGreports/Start.html

This is quite a specialised set of papers, in places, but not unreadable (unlike the stuff translated from the Japanese!) For someone keen to learn more, it makes fascinating reading, if you're patient.

:o P

Hi Pm3,

Usually in 10 to 15 year cycles. 1968/69 and 1978/79 come to mind. Since 1979 GW theories have entered the equation. However, the prolonged cold pool in the North Barent makes for encouraging prognosis . Now is the time to deliver.

C