Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[Damien]

Talking of "positive signs in the Northern Hemisphere", this is quite interesting. It's from Ian Currie on USW:

Just come back from the Alps and it is more than a light dusting and down to levels below 1800 metres. Some places had over half a metre and in the village where I was staying in Glanerland the Canton Glarus the past week has recorded more than 150mm of rain with snow only a few hundred metres higher. Cattle had to be brought down into barns from the high summer pastures or alps and that's not good news as they eat into winter hay supplies.

After taking off from a very wet Zurich airport there was a period of moderate turbulence, not surprising due to the strong wind shear aloft. It caused a few anxious faces in the aircraft.

Edited August 31, 2006 by Damien

[mezzacyclone]

Please correct me if i`m mistaken Carinthian but upon zooming into this chart arctic atmos cryo pic hosted on NW it appears the minima has not met last years and as its the 1st SEP tomorrow surely the lowest has peaked?

and the increase of those "bergy bits" Kipp is very impressive given 26HRS between the 2 shots?

[parmenides3]

Please correct me if i`m mistaken Carinthian but upon zooming into this chart arctic atmos cryo pic hosted on NW it appears the minima has not met last years and as its the 1st SEP tomorrow surely the lowest has peaked?

and the increase of those "bergy bits" Kipp is very impressive given 26HRS between the 2 shots?

There isn't a fixed date for the minimum, Mezzacyclone; the graph might start to climb, might go down a bit more, or might wobble around a bit for a while. The dates for sea-ice minima used to be in August, but in recent years, have more often been in September, sometimes as late as the 20th. However, there is a reasonable chance that we will have reached the minimum for this year, as temperatures are low enough for ice to start reforming in some areas. If you look at the individual charts for the ice areas, though, you'll see that, though the Eastern side, from the Barents to Chuckchi, is more or less stable, there are still falling levels in three or four areas on the Western side. This small continuing fall may well be compensated for, however, if the Central Arctic levels start to rise. Expect the minimum to be any time from now until about a week's time. Earlier on, I bet someone it would be on or after the 8th, but I suspect I might have missed out by a few days, this year. You'll also notice that there is a slight time-lag in the charts, as the data seems to take around three days to process properly.

Hope this helps. P

[noggin]

WE are also getting warmer......year....... after year.....after year!

Dawlish

Oh no we're not!

Not true. The last 4 years have been getting progressively cooler (slightly) and without opening another can of worms I believe that the cooling trend will continue (with some outliers) for quite some time. Perhaps not globally but locally I think we will experience a Winter with a CET of less than 2c sometime in the next decade.

Totally agree with this.

We must also remember that statistics aren't going to be much use inasmuch as there have been temperature "highs" which can, to my way of thinking, skew statistical indications of cooling down.

Well, I know what I mean.....

[Guest Mike W]

The annaul CET hasn't been going up year after year but the coolest year we have had post 2001 is 2005 at 10.47 [Manley] and 10.44 [Hadley]. If you take the lowest CET from the Hadley and manley you can get 2005 down to 10.38 but thats it. So it might not go up and up but it not going down either. Just looking at the CET series tells me IMO to not expect any 9.4 or 9.7 etc let alone any 8.7's or 8.8/9 etc any time soon or at all at this rate. It would take a Pinatobo or Tambora type eruption to get any cooling from the looks of things. Maybe the supposed long solar minimum coming up may increase the chnaces of big eruptions like this...or not.

Edited September 1, 2006 by Mike W

[Stratos Ferric]

Oh no we're not!

Totally agree with this.

We must also remember that statistics aren't going to be much use inasmuch as there have been temperature "highs" which can, to my way of thinking, skew statistical indications of cooling down.

Well, I know what I mean.....

Mmmm, I think that's what some of my esteemed colleagues occasionally refer to, with amusedly raised eyebrows, as forcing the line to fit the data!

If I read you right Noggin, what you're saying is the UK climate is actually in a long period of cooling and the dramatic warming of the last ten years, and the gereral warming of the last 25, is just an inconvenient anomaly against the cooling trend that started in 1950 and ran until around 1970: if I read you right.

The annaul CET hasn't been going up year after year but the coolest year we have had post 2001 is 2005 at 10.47 [Manley] and 10.44 [Hadley]. If you take the lowest CET from the Hadley and manley you can get 2005 down to 10.38 but thats it. So it might not go up and up but it not going down either. Just looking at the CET series tells me IMO to not expect any 9.4 or 9.7 etc let alone any 8.7's or 8.8/9 etc any time soon or at all at this rate. It would take a Pinatobo or Tambora type eruption to get any cooling from the looks of things. Maybe the supposed long solar minimum coming up may increase the chnaces of big eruptions like this...or not.

Mike, to be honest, arguing about 100ths of a degree is an irrelevance when we only measure originally to 1/10ths of a degree. We're better, as you do later in the thread, quoting in the 10ths. That's why the muttering on here about the cooling of the last 3-4 years needs to be taken with a pinch of salt at present; it might be no more than imprecision in measurement that accounts for it; indeed, given the +/- 0.1, it's not outwith the bounds of possibility that temperature is still climbing.

Edited September 1, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[Rollo]

Good post Tamara, my opinion is that the slight cooling trend should be taking as just that as it has not been going long enough to indicate other than a blip at this time, all we can hope for is a succession of colder winters which even then may or may not indicate something more definate. In the meantime I wait for December onwards with baited breath.

[carinthian]

At this stage, I am optimistic about this winter - although I would like to see an improvement in the SST position (although it is still early days). Even if the very interesting -ve anomalies to the north continue (fingers crossed) we want conditions to be favourable for the jet to come as far south as possible so we are on the right 'side' of it.

Southern europe or Africa will do

Tamara

Don't get greedy Tamara 1

C

[carinthian]

...why not!

Tamara

Yes why not: We have waited long enough !

C

Please correct me if i`m mistaken Carinthian but upon zooming into this chart arctic atmos cryo pic hosted on NW it appears the minima has not met last years and as its the 1st SEP tomorrow surely the lowest has peaked?

and the increase of those "bergy bits" Kipp is very impressive given 26HRS between the 2 shots?

hi mezzacyclone,

I tend to agree with Pm3 explaination in post 182. Taking the largest sea ice area (the Arctic Ocean ) historically around the 1st of September records the minimum amount and a bit later for the general Northern Hemisphere areas. My observation is to think that minimum levels were reached in the high Arctic earlier around 20th August.

C

hI kippure,

Bergy Bits. If you look to the horizon you can you make out the main ice pack ( probably ) multi- year ice. On shore wind flow will allow the main edge to drift closer to the Northern coast of Alaska . Harrison Bay is likely to be affected by this advance over the coming days.

C

tO kippure,

Whats your link to the Barrow Station Sea Ice Web Cam ( love it ) Looks like Robin Hoods Bay on a good day !

C

[kippure]

[quote name=carinthian' date='1 Sep 2006, 02:00 PM' post='773521'

tO kippure,

Whats your link to the Barrow Station Sea Ice Web Cam ( love it ) Looks like Robin Hoods Bay on a good day !

C

Edited September 1, 2006 by kippure

[Dawlish]

Thanks.

No more dawlish (crosses self), but odds on a CT minimum?

Oi!

[parmenides3]

Oi!

What?

Carinth.: my fave webcam site at the mo. for the Arctic Circle is http://firenzemeteo.com/inverno.html

It has big, regularly updated shots from Norway, Siberia, Greenland and, at the very bottom, the Barrow cam. I look at it almost every day, not least because some of the locations are so beautiful. It also has local weather station temp. reports running alongside the webcam images, which is handy!

:)P

[Anti-Mild]

Good link p3! I'm at work just now so I can't post the links I use but I'll stick 'em on later if I remember !

Edit: just remembered one, it's webcams throughout Finland:

http://www.tiehallinto.fi/alk/frames/kelikamerat-frame.html

Edited September 1, 2006 by Anti-Mild

[kippure]

What?

Carinth.: my fave webcam site at the mo. for the Arctic Circle is http://firenzemeteo.com/inverno.html

It has big, regularly updated shots from Norway, Siberia, Greenland and, at the very bottom, the Barrow cam. I look at it almost every day, not least because some of the locations are so beautiful. It also has local weather station temp. reports running alongside the webcam images, which is handy!

:)P

Another class cam selection.

Nice one

[parmenides3]

Another class cam selection.

Nice one

Thank you. Someone's got a good link to a bucketload of webcams in Norway, too, but I can't find it (hint, hint).

P

[J10]

Thank you. Someone's got a good link to a bucketload of webcams in Norway, too, but I can't find it (hint, hint).

P

www.webcamsinnorway.com

[kippure]

www.webcamsinnorway.com

614 CAMS WOW!!!

[parmenides3]

www.webcamsinnorway.com

I second that. Good man! Ta.

P

[carinthian]

What?

Carinth.: my fave webcam site at the mo. for the Arctic Circle is http://firenzemeteo.com/inverno.html

It has big, regularly updated shots from Norway, Siberia, Greenland and, at the very bottom, the Barrow cam. I look at it almost every day, not least because some of the locations are so beautiful. It also has local weather station temp. reports running alongside the webcam images, which is handy!

:)P

Thanks Pm3. Stunning quality web pics. Now on my favourite list. Can see I will not be off this damn computer this coming winter. Great fun though. Did manage to braek away to cut the "green " lawn this afternoon. Rain tomorrow ,so that means more ice hunting !

Cheers

C

PS . Is Dawlish back posting ?

[carinthian]

Hi All,

Lets hope that pump of hot air coming out of the Volga Basin doesn't make to much in- roads into the Siberian Arctic Region. There should be sufficent cold blocking to keep this air mass flow to the south of Arctic Circle?

C

[John Cox]

What?

Carinth.: my fave webcam site at the mo. for the Arctic Circle is http://firenzemeteo.com/inverno.html

It has big, regularly updated shots from Norway, Siberia, Greenland and, at the very bottom, the Barrow cam. I look at it almost every day, not least because some of the locations are so beautiful. It also has local weather station temp. reports running alongside the webcam images, which is handy!

P

pm3

Simply stunning that 1st cam.

I will be saving this link for sure.

[kippure]

pm3

Simply stunning that 1st cam.

I will be saving this link for sure.

Looks like a lovely place to live

[John Cox]

Looks like a lovely place to live

Agreed,

If I had no family and they would let me in, thats where I would live.

The quality of that cam is unbelievable.

Edited September 1, 2006 by John Cox

[parmenides3]

Agreed,

If I had no family and they would let me in, thats where I would live.

The quality of that cam is unbelievable.

I imagine that it's Nordkapp, like the following two. If so, it's as far North as you can get in Norway, facing the Arctic.

It's so nice, I look every day. The picture/view changes now and again, too.

P

[John Cox]

I imagine that it's Nordkapp, like the following two. If so, it's as far North as you can get in Norway, facing the Arctic.

It's so nice, I look every day. The picture/view changes now and again, too.

P

I will see you there (virtually) every day pm3 ay 3pm