Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[carinthian]

Just thought I'd share this with you. It's a lovely day in Barrow, (Alaska, not Cumbria) ATM, and the sea ice is the clearest I've seen yet.

P

Hi Pm3

Fantastic shot that is. Just think in a couple of months that whole area will be locked in ice and darkness ! Just a question how far is that pronouced ice edge out to sea and does it reflect satellite images ? One wonders !

C

[beng]

Hi Pm3

Fantastic shot that is. Just think in a couple of months that whole area will be locked in ice and darkness ! Just a question how far is that pronouced ice edge out to sea and does it reflect satellite images ? One wonders !

C

Can't be more than 20 miles out to sea based on that photo.

[Damien]

Yeah that is quite intresting indeed Reef, because the June/July 2006 heatwaves were very potent indeed and I'd thought that the min ice level would have been later because of this but it does indeed at these early stages looks like it may have already bottomed out.

I'd dare say its the solar mins impact on things that has helped it to cool faster then expected coupled with as Reef says quite a potent polar vortex. (Though both could go hand in hand I'd guess!)

Yeah I've noticed this and am quite surprised by that too.

And parmenides3, that NOAA/NWS statement you posted makes for pretty damn interesting reading! Most of those years quoted with the (admittedly slightly weaker anyway) exception of 2001+ were quite notable winters on both sides of the Atlantic! Interesting times ahead.

Edited September 5, 2006 by Damien

[mezzacyclone]

Hi Pm3

Fantastic shot that is. Just think in a couple of months that whole area will be locked in ice and darkness ! Just a question how far is that pronouced ice edge out to sea and does it reflect satellite images ? One wonders !

C

Hello all,

I found a very good satellite shot of Barrow and the north Alaskan coast last night showing the Ice field but i`ll be damned if i can find it through here at work B) ,,,I`ll trawl through the NOAA and my history when i get back home for the pic!

3 cheers for Carinth and Pm3 for this fascinating thread and above all the fantastic webcams

[carinthian]

Hello all,

I found a very good satellite shot of Barrow and the north Alaskan coast last night showing the Ice field but i`ll be damned if i can find it through here at work B) ,,,I`ll trawl through the NOAA and my history when i get back home for the pic!

3 cheers for Carinth and Pm3 for this fascinating thread and above all the fantastic webcams

Hi Mezz,

Glad you like the thread. Some really interesting poster. Lets hope we get a great "ice season " Let us know if you find that satellite shot. I am fascinated by your wide choice of interests. Whats indie music ?

C

[carinthian]

Hi ALL,

Late summer hangs on for our Alaskan friends. A significant warm air mass of Tropical Continental origin is now making its affect into the Canadian Western Arctic sector producing some lower ice retention here. The main polar vortex is expected to be soon centred off the Mid- Siberian Sector (around the Kara Sea sector ) This will result in some rather impressive low temps to be recorded between the Pole and North Greenland coastal sectors and with a colder air mass pushing into Baffin. Hopefull some colder air will start to filter out of Siberia and into the Western Arctic Basin. Ice level continue to hold firm in most sectors , but prolonged ,albeit, late arrival of warmth into the Beaufort Sea and now Chukchi Sea lays hold for some concern here.

Carinthian

[parmenides3]

Hi Pm3

Fantastic shot that is. Just think in a couple of months that whole area will be locked in ice and darkness ! Just a question how far is that pronouced ice edge out to sea and does it reflect satellite images ? One wonders !

C

As you asked: (NWS Alaska, again)

THE ICE EDGE IS 4 TO 8 NM OFF SHORE FROM BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT...10

TO 15 NM OFF SHORE FROM CAPE HALKETT TO JUST WEST OF PRUDHOE

BAY...ALONG THE COAST AT PRUDHOE BAY...JUST BEYOND THE BARRIER

ISLANDS EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND 2 TO 10 NM OFF SHORE FOR MUCH OF

CAMDEN BAY. THE ICE NEAR KAKTOVIK IS MAINLY LESS THAN 3 TENTHS

CONCENTRATION.

Closer than you think...

Thanks for the update, professional as ever.

p

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the latest charts, it appears that we should see ice melt stop in all areas except the Beaufort Sea, as cold air builds over Canada.

[carinthian]

Hi ALL,

Late summer hangs on for our Alaskan friends. A significant warm air mass of Tropical Continental origin is now making its affect into the Canadian Western Arctic sector producing some lower ice retention here. The main polar vortex is expected to be soon centred off the Mid- Siberian Sector (around the Kara Sea sector ) This will result in some rather impressive low temps to be recorded between the Pole and North Greenland coastal sectors and with a colder air mass pushing into Baffin. Hopefull some colder air will start to filter out of Siberia and into the Western Arctic Basin. Ice level continue to hold firm in most sectors , but prolonged ,albeit, late arrival of warmth into the Beaufort Sea and now Chukchi Sea lays hold for some concern here.

Carinthian

In contrast to the Tc warmth across Alaska and into the Canadian Western Arctic, the cold circulation now established over the Kara Sea has allowed earlier freezing over here. Todays latest satellite and sea ice information confirms sea ice has made landfall on the NW side of the Taymyr this week. The amount of full ice cover in this sector is way ahead of this time last year but probably nearer to the longer term "norm"/ The Russian

sea ice archives document a bigger retention compared to this time last year( more so than the Cyrosphere updates ) I have always thought their analyses may be off the pace somewhat !

Carinthian

[Anti-Mild]

In contrast to the Tc warmth across Alaska and into the Canadian Western Arctic, the cold circulation now established over the Kara Sea has allowed earlier freezing over here. Todays latest satellite and sea ice information confirms sea ice has made landfall on the NW side of the Taymyr this week. The amount of full ice cover in this sector is way ahead of this time last year but probably nearer to the longer term "norm"/ The Russian

sea ice archives document a bigger retention compared to this time last year( more so than the Cyrosphere updates ) I have always thought their analyses may be off the pace somewhat !

Carinthian

Do you have a link for that Russian data carinthian? I agree that Cryosphere tends not to be the most accurate.

AM

[carinthian]

Do you have a link for that Russian data carinthian? I agree that Cryosphere tends not to be the most accurate.

AM

Hi AM,

I use the Orange Web Search : type in www.aari.nw.ru

This is a Russian Federation department site for satellite, sea ice and hydrological info based in St Petersburg that gives a weekly ice report and drift forecast , plus yearly comparisons. Better than many other experimental Arctic Rim sites, I think anyway. Good searching.

C

[parmenides3]

I use the same link, Carinth., but add the English translation part:

http://www.aari.nw.ru/index_en.html

The curious should note , though, that the data stops at Alaska.

A useful secondary site is the Canadian Ice Service: http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/

Anchorage ice desk is on http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php

Enjoy. :blush: P

[Dawlish]

This site is excellent; it is the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC).

They report that the Arctic Ice is well below the 28 year average, but above last year's record low. The graphs are easier to read than on Cryosphere site, though the Cryosphere Today site is run by the NSIDC.

It is well worth an explore; especially the FAQs. The question on "how do we measure sea ice" effectively puts to bed the idea that satellite measurement is somehow not the most important way of measuring it.

A lovely word, I had never come across before: a polynya; an irregularly shaped areas of persistent open water that are sustained by winds or ocean heat; they often occur near coasts, fast ice, or ice shelves. There is an unusual one in the Beafort Sea at present - you can see it in the satellite image for Sept 5th, it is so big.

Paul

Edited September 8, 2006 by Dawlish

[Anti-Mild]

Well love it or loathe it the Cryosphere site seems to indicate that this years minimum has definitely been reached. In fact, if you look carefully there may even be a slight rise in ice levels:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Even the anomaly line is close to the long-term average.

[parmenides3]

Well love it or loathe it the Cryosphere site seems to indicate that this years minimum has definitely been reached. In fact, if you look carefully there may even be a slight rise in ice levels:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Even the anomaly line is close to the long-term average.

I think you are right, A-M, that we'll have had the minimum by now this year. It'll be interesting to see, when they complete the analysis, whether CT place it at the end of August or the beginning of September: the CT graphs can be slightly deceptive on details, as Dawlish pointed out. Though the current level is just below the line, we are still looking at 200-300,000 Km2 less ice than the long term mean, though, perhaps 4% down. Long-term average is -7.5%, so this might be seen as encouraging to those who would like a cooler Winter this year.

Note also, though, that whilst the cover is not at a minimum, the extent measure once again broke the record for the lowest measured (as stated by the Canadian Ice Service).

[Dawlish]

I think you are right, A-M, that we'll have had the minimum by now this year. It'll be interesting to see, when they complete the analysis, whether CT place it at the end of August or the beginning of September: the CT graphs can be slightly deceptive on details, as Dawlish pointed out. Though the current level is just below the line, we are still looking at 200-300,000 Km2 less ice than the long term mean, though, perhaps 4% down. Long-term average is -7.5%, so this might be seen as encouraging to those who would like a cooler Winter this year.

Note also, though, that whilst the cover is not at a minimum, the extent measure once again broke the record for the lowest measured (as stated by the Canadian Ice Service).

I'd concur with what A-M and P3 have said.

P3, it's not so much "deceptive" as just bloody hard to read from the scales!

Paul

[parmenides3]

I'd concur with what A-M and P3 have said.

P3, it's not so much "deceptive" as just bloody hard to read from the scales!

Paul

Too bl00dy true! I'll email them & tell them to sort it out.

By the way: I can only get the month-end graphs from NSIDC; where are the daily updates?

P

[Dawlish]

Too bl00dy true! I'll email them & tell them to sort it out.

By the way: I can only get the month-end graphs from NSIDC; where are the daily updates?

P

There don't seem to be daily ones, just updates as and when 6th Sept was still showing as up-to-date last time I looked.

Paul

[carinthian]

Hi all,

I agree with AM &Pm3 that minimum levels have now been reached for 2006. There will be no repeat of last Autumns prolonged warm spell in the Siberian Sectors. Polar Met Charts forecast cold circulations from the North Barent to the Laptev Seas. However,what fascinates me is that unusual hole out in the West Canadian Arctic Sea Basin. Strange because it has formed in an area of long term ice pack well out to sea and some considerable distance from the coastline. I have studied ice data maps since 1969 and have never seen a "hole " in that particular area of the Beaufort Sea. At a guess, a summer of unusual pressure sequences in that location maybe the answer.

C

[Dawlish]

Hi all,

I agree with AM &Pm3 that minimum levels have now been reached for 2006. There will be no repeat of last Autumns prolonged warm spell in the Siberian Sectors. Polar Met Charts forecast cold circulations from the North Barent to the Laptev Seas. However,what fascinates me is that unusual hole out in the West Canadian Arctic Sea Basin. Strange because it has formed in an area of long term ice pack well out to sea and some considerable distance from the coastline. I have studied ice data maps since 1969 and have never seen a "hole " in that particular area of the Beaufort Sea. At a guess, a summer of unusual pressure sequences in that location maybe the answer.

C

'swarratalked about, C, - the polynya. They are not terribly whole-of-the-Arctic rare, according to the NSIDC, but this one is a biggie and, like you said, they've never seen one in the Beaufort sea before.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

Your guess is a good one; they suggest it may be due to upwelling of warmer water, or due to "local atmospheric circulation forcing a local divergeance of ice" (somebody at the NSIDC swallowed a course, or 3) but both are pretty obvious explanations and really, we're all playing at informed guessing. I reckon it's a big school of whales that have got cut off and keep swimming round and round to keep the pack ice away! The trouble is that the area is just too big. It's not covered by surface data collection and probably no human has visited it since the hole developed. If it wasn't for satellites, we'd, very probably, never have known about it; but now we do and it's interesting!

Paul

Edited September 11, 2006 by Dawlish

[parmenides3]

'swarratalked about, C, - the polynya. They are not terribly whole-of-the-Arctic rare, according to the NSIDC, but this one is a biggie and, like you said, they've never seen one in the Beaufort sea before.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

Your guess is a good one; they suggest it may be due to upwelling of warmer water, or due to "local atmospheric circulation forcing a local divergeance of ice" (somebody at the NSIDC swallowed a course, or 3) but both are pretty obvious explanations and really, we're all playing at informed guessing. I reckon it's a big school of whales that have got cut off and keep swimming round and round to keep the pack ice away! The trouble is that the area is just too big. It's not covered by surface data collection and probably no human has visited it since the hole developed. If it wasn't for satellites, we'd, very probably, never have known about it; but now we do and it's interesting!

Paul

As you know, Paul, I don't have Carinth's years of experience, but this huge pool; not, technically a Polynya, I am afraid, because it is not completely surrounded by ice, started in late July as an anomalous area of reduced thickness in what had previously been shown as multi-year pack ice, then progressed through August into a full-blown split.

Carinth's right, of course; the most powerful force acting on the Arctic sea-ice is the wind, with temperature, precipitation (or lack of it), current and warm water influx from the Bering Sea ( & fresh from the Siberian rivers) all adding to the effect. but this particular feature has been relatively stable, geographically, all through the Summer.

P

[summer blizzard]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

Greenland Ice is now average.

[parmenides3]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

Greenland Ice is now average.

For the time being.

P

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

For the time being.

P

Though less than what we had this time last year.

[Optimus Prime]

For the time being.

P

I can't see it going below average now, probably continue rising. Greenland see ice looks exactly as it was this time last year.

Could creep above average as it did last year but only very slightly so.