Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[summer blizzard]

I suspect that the strong Polar Vortex responsible for the early buildup of cold was caused by the large amount of heat which escaped into the Arctic during July, this effectively caused a feedback loop forming a large thermal gradiant and therefore a strong Polar Vortex.

[carinthian]

I suspect that the strong Polar Vortex responsible for the early buildup of cold was caused by the large amount of heat which escaped into the Arctic during July, this effectively caused a feedback loop forming a large thermal gradiant and therefore a strong Polar Vortex.

Hi all,

I am not sure SB whether that is the reason, however there is now evidence of some good ice formation taking place in the Greenland Basin. Numerous sightings of icebergs for this time of year between Jan Mayen Island and the Denmark Strait as far south as 70N. A few have even landed in the NW of Iceland. The summer cold pool in The North Barent may have helped matters here to be followed by a colder circulation now established much earlier than last year in the Kara Sea.

No doubt time will tell, never the less its looking good folks!

Carinth

[Dawlish]

As you know, Paul, I don't have Carinth's years of experience, but this huge pool; not, technically a Polynya, I am afraid, because it is not completely surrounded by ice, started in late July as an anomalous area of reduced thickness in what had previously been shown as multi-year pack ice, then progressed through August into a full-blown split.

Carinth's right, of course; the most powerful force acting on the Arctic sea-ice is the wind, with temperature, precipitation (or lack of it), current and warm water influx from the Bering Sea ( & fresh from the Siberian rivers) all adding to the effect. but this particular feature has been relatively stable, geographically, all through the Summer.

P

Strange P3; the NSIDC describe it as a polynya and from this satellite photo, it looks like a polynya, completely surrounded by ice and it seems to fit every desription I can find of a polynya!

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

This tells you more.

http://www2.fsg.ulaval.ca/giroq/now//what.htm

Just dead intersesting. The fact that they occur every year, in particular places in the Arctic, suggested to me that the recurring polynyas would have a latent heat, or upwelling, cause, rather than a wind-blown cause, though reading on in the NOW website, talking about the North Water polynya, it looks like the cause is probably a combination of factors. Some good diagrams and excellent explanation on the site above, when you explore a bit deeper. It's amazing what you learn!

I also take back what I said about no humans exploring the polynya in the Beaufort Sea. It's probably had a 14 story, temporary hotel for polyanya studiers built right next door to it.....and a tube service to get them there!

Paul

Edited September 12, 2006 by Dawlish

[parmenides3]

Strange P3; the NSIDC describe it as a polynya and from this satellite photo, it looks like a polynya, completely surrounded by ice and it seems to fit every desription I can find of a polynya!

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

This tells you more.

http://www2.fsg.ulaval.ca/giroq/now//what.htm

A very interseting phenomenon. The fact that they occur every year, in particular places in the Arctic, would, perhaps, suggest the recurring polynyas would have a latent heat, or upwelling, cause, rather than a wind-blown cause. Some good diagrams and excellent explanation on the site above. It's amazing what you learn!

Paul

Yes. Paul, your NSIDC graphic shows it as a polynya. The CT, MMEB and DMI sites have all shown it as open towards the Bering Sea end, until today, at least, hence my pedantry; a quick track back on the CT 30 days images will show what I mean. Today's CT image has it just about closed off at that end; the others still don't.

Looked at the areal graphs a few minutes ago. The stability of the level is deceptive: levels are rising quite quickly in the central Arctic, ofsetting a continuing, slow decline in the Kara, East Siberian, Chuckchi & Canadina Archipelao areas. I don't think this is especially unusual, apart from that 'hole' filling in.

Levels may dip above the long-term average once or twice, but I would hazard that they'll stay just below the long-term mean for most of the next few months. I would imagine we still have a few weeks before the re-freeze sets in properly in some areas. I still can't see much snow in any of the Arctic webcam shots, apart from a powdering on the tops at Suillissivik (sic).

P

[Dawlish]

Possibly interesting. The link came from "crandles" on UKww. I don't subscribe to the online mag, below, but if the conclusions were true, that a positive feedback mechanism was under way, melting more and more ice each year, then perhaps last year's low record would have been beaten this year. The study does refer to perennial ice though. I just don't have enough knowledge to comment fully. Anyone help?

http://www.agu.org/journals/scripts/highli...id=2006GL027198

Paul

Edited September 14, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Evening all,

It seems the first snowfall of the season at the higher elavation station of Zeppelinn in Svalbard is now taking place. Catch now on web-cam.

c.

Evening all,

It seems the first snowfall of the season at the higher elavation station of Zeppelinn in Svalbard is now taking place. Catch now on web-cam.

c.

Can anyone bring up ?. I don't how to !

C

[kippure]

Here Edited September 14, 2006 by kippure

[parmenides3]

The most obvious feedback which would effect Spring and Summer levels would be the lowered Albedo, which would have little effect in the Winter 'cos there's no Sun anyway. But even if there was a feedback 'loop going on, the 'noise' from seasonal and interannual variation would still be strong, making it hard to show a linear trend.

Can't link to Ny Alesund, but here's a pic:

P

sorry, Kippure, I missed your link!

Edited September 14, 2006 by parmenides3

[carinthian]

Here

tHANKS KIPPURE,

nICE TO SEE SNOW AGAIN !

c

[Dawlish]

The latest update from the NSIDC is out, for 12th Sept.

The gist of what they say is in this paste:

"Figure 2 shows an updated time series. As of yesterday, ice extent is not currently declining. The most recent data actually show a small rise. We may have already reached the September sea ice minimum extent. The relatively cool and stormy conditions that characterized August (see reports below) may have averted a repeat of the extreme ice losses of 2005. If we have reached the minimum, this year would be the fifth lowest in the satellite record.

That said, we are not at all certain that we have reached the minimum; given the precariously low ice concentrations bounding the southern edge of the Beaufort Sea polynya discussed above, ice extent may start declining again.

No matter what happens from here on, September 2006 continues the pattern of strongly below-average sea ice extent. "

You can find figure 2 on the site and you can read the rest of their update their. It is a really informative site.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaicemin...seaicenews.html

The last sentence of the paste can't give the cold-hopers a great deal of belief that the coming winter's dreadfully cold weather will come from a much greater extent of Arctic ice, on the evidence of this...... can it?

Paul

Edited September 15, 2006 by Dawlish

[noggin]

Oh yes, it can! My understanding of your extract is that there is not less than there was last year (for whatever reason) and even though it is said that it looks like a continuation of the pattern of strongly below average sea ice extent, well it is not a reduction over last year, is it? Also, it would only be the fifth lowest extent. Is it not possible that a nadir has been reached regarding amounts of sea ice?

You see, hope springs eternal for a cold lover.

By the way, none of my posts are meant to be flippant....they are all genuinely-held opinions.

[Dawlish]

Oh yes, it can! My understanding of your extract is that there is not less than there was last year (for whatever reason) and even though it is said that it looks like a continuation of the pattern of strongly below average sea ice extent, well it is not a reduction over last year, is it? Also, it would only be the fifth lowest extent. Is it not possible that a nadir has been reached regarding amounts of sea ice?

You see, hope springs eternal for a cold lover.

By the way, none of my posts are meant to be flippant....they are all genuinely-held opinions.

I know, no flippancy taken!

5th lowest Arctic ice ever (from satellites)? Continues the trend of strongly below average ice extent? Warmest global year ever last year, Global sea temps in July and Global surface temperatures in the top 10 ever, as they almost always are, even, now against warm comparisons over the last 20 years, for July and August? How on earth is Arctic Ice expected to recover and how on earth are UK winters expected to trend cooler?

When all the evidence stacks up against.......all that is left is hope. I hope all the cold-hopers get a cold winter this year, I genuinely do!; You will get one, one year, honest, (though it may have been last year....bummer). I know I'd lose a lot of internet tipples, but there's be such a desperation assuaged. It would be wondrous to see and read! i'd deal with the staitical relevance in terms of trend-changing (next to nil) if it arrives!

Paul

Edited September 15, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Here

See snow showers down to sea level as viewed this afternoon from the Zeppelin Stn. Arctic air mass now tucking into Ny- Aalesund- should get some good snow pictures here in the morning.

C

[Guest Viking141]

Lovely!

Nice link that.

[carinthian]

Strange how the feed on warm Pacific air has made long in-roads into West Canadian Arctic Region with continued ice melt from the Bering and into the Beaufort Sea compares to this years much earlier start for ice formation now taking places from the Greenland Basin through to the Russian sectors. The normal Atlantic gulf of warmth and associated depressions are not being pushed into the Norwegian Sea (Atlantic storms again seem to be in non- transient mode again). The polar vortex has already become established nearer the European /Russian side of the North Pole. This set up is ripe for the development of potent Arctic depressions to push into The North Barent and even make some in-roads to split the dominence of the Russian Anticyclone at times.

Carinthian

[Polar Continental]

Hi Carinth,

Yes some very warm air indeed, comparable to the same air over the UK at present and looks as though it could get warmer over the coming few days up there 10c to 15c 850's not until T180 hours do things begin to cool down, by then though the cold pool has extended considerably as the arctic sinks into it’s 6 months of darkness. T180

Paul

[parmenides3]

Some interesting controversy at the moment about this press release, from NASA;

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environme...e_meltdown.html

the study is not due to be released till later in the month, and some people are saying it's not right to issue a public release in advance of the study, as it gives nobody a chance to comment on the science or the findings.

Basically, the Winter sea-ice extent dropped 6% in each of the last two Winters. In the previous decade, it was dropping at a rate of 1.5%. Summer extent is dropping at a rate of 10% per decade, on average. The melt season is now two weeks longer, on average, than it was in the early 1980's.

A small note; the CT graphs show sea-ice cover, a different measurement, so you'll need to look at the NASA graphics for the picture on this one. What does it mean for this Winter? Not a lot, probably; interannual variation is very high, cover this Summer has not been at an all time low, too much about the Arctic climate is uncertain. Might affect Paul's odds, though.

P

[kippure]

Here,s the latest snow cover.

[Guest Viking141]

Aaaah thats better! A snow fix at last!

:unsure:

[Dawlish]

Oh good grief!

[Guest Viking141]

:unsure: :blink: :lol:

[johnholmes]

for a bit nearer home keep your eye on the Svalbard web cam. Perhaps Sunday but certainly Monday the cold air, the first real Arctic blast, should be over them. Even gave it a mention in the Close Up yesterday!

John

[johnholmes]

hi

this is the web cam and latest forecast for Sunday, I hope!

the web cam is this

with thanks to web cams of Norway, here is their site

http://www.webcamsinnorway.com/webcams.php?viewcam=305

John

[parmenides3]

excellent stuff, John; thank you. I'll certainly be keeping a watch.

P

[johnholmes]

hi P3

re that pm to me sorry but what with pc/broadband problems and other things at home I have not had chance to do anything but good luck if you go ahead.

John