Countryfile / Country Tracks / Landward Forecast Thread

[Snowangel-MK]

It has to be one of the worst week ahead forecasts we have seen for some time. I just don't see how they can put max temps of 6-7c with snow showers down the east coast. Seemed like a bodged forecast that had been put together quickly as the models had changed. This would never have happened with the no-nonsense symbols - would have been able to change them pretty quickly. Probably wasn't Laura's fault, but the forecast was of very poor quality, especially as recent Countryfile forecasts have been excellent.

I think I'm going to go back to just looking out of the window and 'now casting' myself !

The Countryfile forecast is normally so much better than it was today, I am not a weather expert but even I know it won't snow if it's 6c.

At least there is some blue sky and sun here today with a few white clouds (look like a rib cage) so even if we only get some bright cold instead of grey damp I will be happy but would like to have a better idea what my chances of seeing some more snow really are !

[Nick L]

I think I'm going to go back to just looking out of the window and 'now casting' myself !

The Countryfile forecast is normally so much better than it was today, I am not a weather expert but even I know it won't snow if it's 6c.

At least there is some blue sky and sun here today with a few white clouds (look like a rib cage) so even if we only get some bright cold instead of grey damp I will be happy but would like to have a better idea what my chances of seeing some more snow really are !

Yes that's the best thing about northerlies over easterlies. If you don't get the snow in northerlies you get wall-to-wall sunshine 9 times out of 10. Easterlies however you are far more likely to get the depressing slate grey skies.

Hope tonight's Countryfile forecast is a vast improvement, because let's face it - it can't be any worse!

[Snowangel-MK]

Hope tonight's Countryfile forecast is a vast improvement, because let's face it - it can't be any worse!

Will the 6pm one not just be a repeat of the pre recorded one this morning or do they update it ? I may watch just to see if they have had some complaints and change it!

I wish I understood the charts and model chat, all I want to know is if and when it might rain/snow so I can plan my week and go out on the fine days and stay home on the bad (good if it snows) ones !

[Methuselah]

Will the 6pm one not just be a repeat of the pre recorded one this morning or do they update it ? I may watch just to see if they have had some complaints and change it!

I wish I understood the charts and model chat, all I want to know is if and when it might rain/snow so I can plan my week and go out on the fine days and stay home on the bad (good if it snows) ones !

Well MKSA, after 31 years' in MK, I know one thing (that often applies in Northerly outbreaks ) : when snow's forecast for the North and East, MK is is the South and West; and when snow's expected in the South and West, MK's in the North and East???

[Nick L]

Will the 6pm one not just be a repeat of the pre recorded one this morning or do they update it ? I may watch just to see if they have had some complaints and change it!

I wish I understood the charts and model chat, all I want to know is if and when it might rain/snow so I can plan my week and go out on the fine days and stay home on the bad (good if it snows) ones !

They update it with a new forecaster

[trickydicky]

It has to be one of the worst week ahead forecasts we have seen for some time. I just don't see how they can put max temps of 6-7c with snow showers down the east coast. Seemed like a bodged forecast that had been put together quickly as the models had changed. This would never have happened with the no-nonsense symbols - would have been able to change them pretty quickly. Probably wasn't Laura's fault, but the forecast was of very poor quality, especially as recent Countryfile forecasts have been excellent.

It was the type of forecast you would maybe expect to see for a northerly during mid April, with snow showers but temps getting up to 6 or 7 in the sun in between. A bit odd for late January though.

[Nick L]

It was the type of forecast you would maybe expect to see for a northerly during mid April, with snow showers but temps getting up to 6 or 7 in the sun in between. A bit odd for late January though.

Exactly my thoughts. I love those conditions in April, one minute it is high single figures with strong, warm sunshine - the next the temperature has dropped several degrees with wintry showers!

[WREXHAM]

Does anyone have a link to the country tracks/file weather forecast that's under scrutiny?

[Alex95]

Exactly my thoughts. I love those conditions in April, one minute it is high single figures with strong, warm sunshine - the next the temperature has dropped several degrees with wintry showers!

Easter Sunday 2008 was a bit like that - overnight snow dropped about 5cm where I was in the Lake District, at least 50% had melted by lunchtime and it felt quite pleasant, then more snow and hail showers piled in from mid afternoon onwards and the temperature plummeted again 5th April 2008 was similar, it felt bitterly cold during the wintry showers but in between it felt very springlike 2008 was my favourite spring by far, a wide range of conditions.

A bit OT but never mind, to me it looks like they forgot to update the temperatures to suit the other graphics

Edited January 24, 2010 by alza

[shuggee]

Does anyone have a link to the country tracks/file weather forecast that's under scrutiny?

There's a naughty copy of the forecast here:

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=zcHqOh-Kmc8

[Thundery wintry showers]

I decided to watch the forecast myself before making any judgements. (see Shuggee's link lol!)

The early part of it was very reminiscent of many of the evening forecasts (IMHO) spending over a minute on that "tour of the country" and throwing a good deal of subjectivity in. Haven't seen that on a Countryfile forecast for a while.

Quite a vague forecast but after a mild few days a Northerly will develop windy, snow showers down the east coast by thu-Fri with temps of 6-7°C....... Pretty sure surface temps will be somewhat lower.

The Beeb has always overdone maximum temperatures in northerly regimes since well before the graphics change. I don't know why this is, because their temperature projections are usually fine in other types of regime. I think the general rule of thumb is that if we get a northerly, chop 2C off the BBC's temperature projections.

I wish I understood the charts and model chat, all I want to know is if and when it might rain/snow so I can plan my week and go out on the fine days and stay home on the bad (good if it snows) ones !

I think that's the kind of person most of the modern-day BBC forecasts are increasingly tailored to- except that they assume you think snow is worse than rain (this in itself can confuse people, if the forecast is for a weather type they'd be happy with, and we're told it's going to be bad weather). But some of the graphics are used in such a vague manner that they also confuse people (blue for both frost and rain for example- my parents, who have a significant understanding of weather due to having a weather enthusiast as their son, found that very confusing over Christmas).

I hope this forecast is a one-off because I've been singing the praises of the Countryfile forecasts recently, and the last few were among the best I've seen.

[Lewis]

Regarding a lot of the posts in here, it can snow at 7c

I have witnessed it many times.

With this type of flow coastal areas with sunshine will hit 6-7c with dews of about 1c or sometimes -2 to -4. When showers hit the temp drops rapidly as the dew point rises, this in turn makes the showers fall of hail/wintery mix, and then changes rapidly to snow.

In between showers temps will always rise. Rule number 1...

[Geordiesnow]

Thats true Lewis but that normally happens in Spring, not winter! The sun is not strong enough to have temps rising that high during the sunshine i would not of thought, especially with the cold air over us.

As TWS says, drop a good couple of degrees off and if the Northerly does not downgrade, i expect those temps to be lower than they are now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

See this link for a discussion of snow at temperatures above freezing:

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowAboveFreezing

A general rule of thumb is that falling snow won't melt if the average of the temperature and dewpoint is at or below freezing, provided that there is no temperature inversion. In spring, you can get snow showers with highs of 6-8C and dewpoints of -3C, this is because the sun causes very localised warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, so the snow doesn't have much >3C air to fall through before it reaches the ground and in any case will usually quickly drag surface temperatures down considerably once the shower gets underway.

But this is the end of January, and the sun simply isn't strong enough to generate that kind of effect. You might, at a push, see snow showers at this time of year with highs of 5 or 6C, but in most cases the upper bound is more like 3 or 4C.

[cold snap]

What a disgrace.

Looked rushed and detail was terrible imo

Edited January 24, 2010 by cold snap

[Optimus Prime]

Laura Tobin may not be a Rob Mcelwee or John Hammond but she's better to look at.

[Snowangel-MK]

Well MKSA, after 31 years' in MK, I know one thing (that often applies in Northerly outbreaks ) : when snow's forecast for the North and East, MK is is the South and West; and when snow's expected in the South and West, MK's in the North and East???

Haha, that sounds about right, I've lived here 16 years and we have missed out by a few miles on many occasions during 'normal' winters, I'm just keeping my fingers crossed this one will be different

They update it with a new forecaster

And hopefully a new forecast

Perhaps the 'spring type' snow showers with higher temperatures in January is something to do with the fact Easter Eggs are already on sale in the shops. Everyone seems to think winter is over already so we may as well have 'Easter' weather to go with the chocolate eggs !

Edited January 24, 2010 by MKsnowangel

[Ben_Cambs]

Well becuase of the 12z UKMO output, (Which supports a longer Northerly than first anticipated a couple of days ago) I do expect a change to the forecast tonight. A corker of a UKMO run!

[The PIT]

Can all further discussion on the Country Tracks forecast be placed in the designated thread here.

Especially as that forecast is now out of date, and tonight's Countryfile forecast may be considerably different.

Isn't it just a re -run of the middays one ????

Either way it went for a northerly for the 2nd part of week. Interestingly none of the models have been very good lately ever so often they kept showing the cold coming back and it never happened. Hopefully they'll do better with the northerly as being in no mans land is getting a little tedious.

[Nick L]

Not sure, I will check that tonight.

Just to quickly clear this up, no it isn't a re-run, at least it hasn't been for the past several weeks when I have watched both.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Laura Tobin may not be a Rob Mcelwee or John Hammond but she's better to look at.

Some of us obviously will view that the other way around

Rob is a sweety, and JH is also a sweety but is also even more

Also they are both cold rampers as well as being two of the best forecasters on the beeb

[Methuselah]

I used to like Helen Young!

[The PIT]

Just to quickly clear this up, no it isn't a re-run, at least it hasn't been for the past several weeks when I have watched both.

Ah better watching the latest then.

[J10]

Just to quickly clear this up, no it isn't a re-run, at least it hasn't been for the past several weeks when I have watched both.

To be honest that's what I thought.

[Nick L]

Once again, not a very exciting forecast. For Thursday and Friday at least it is cool-average at best with wintry showers along the east coast.