Tropical Storm Ernesto

[Gray-Wolf]

Ernesto you horrible let down, don't you go reorganising now like some teasy thing If he ends up as a pretty cat1 by next landfall I'll spit!! Roll on a less complicated storm!!!

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 7:10 am EDT, August 31, 2006

ERNESTO GETTING STRONGER BY THE HOUR- WILL IT MAKE HURRICANE INTENSITY?

Ernesto is getting better and better organized with each passing hour. The radar presentation shows the rainbands wrapping around the circulation as the storm feeds off the very warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Time is running out for Ernesto, but with a pressure of around 997 millibars, it is possible that we could see the storm make it to hurricane strength right before landfall. The good news is that it won't have much time to do so and even if it does, the center will be on the coast tonight- so it can't get too much stronger. Ernesto will bring very heavy rains to the Carolinas including areas well away from the coast. Inland flooding could be a big problem and people will need to use common sense while driving over the next day or so. I saw so many accidents in Florida as a result of people driving too fast in heavy rains. Some areas in the Carolinas and Virginia could see several inches of rain before all is said and done. Also keep in mind the possibility of tornadoes developing especially as the rainbands move on shore later today. I will be traveling to the coast once the center comes close enough to pivot the strengthening rainbands on shore. If Ernesto makes it to hurricane intensity, I will try my best to find those winds right at the beach using the RM Young anemometer on the Chvy Tahoe. James Lewis and Todd Ferebee, who both live right here in eastern North Carolina, where I live, will accompany me today. We will post updates here on wind pressure readings along with a video report or two. At least the rest of the Atlantic is quiet with no other threats of development anytime soon- and none that look to threaten land. The east Pacific has a newsmaker with powerful hurricane John very near the coast of Mexico. You can read more about John here. I will have another update around 11am ET.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Calrissian]

Woah ! Ernesto looking really good now, Hurricane status again later tonight now seems likely. Annoyingly surprising, wouldn't you agree?

[Hurricane Debby]

000

WTNT35 KNHC 311449

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN

EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA

INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED

SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER

NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND

ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM

SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225

MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND

ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH

CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF

THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS

OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA

INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH

SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Ernesto looks like it will get as powerful as it has ever got. Some explosive development since Ernesto left Florida ... CAT 1 for South Carolina.

[SMU]

Ernesto looks like it will get as powerful as it has ever got. Some explosive development since Ernesto left Florida ... CAT 1 for South Carolina.

More threatening is the amazing culmlative rainfall amounts forecast apon landfall-

We are talking up to a foot if rain in a few areas- that is flash flood teritory...........

It may well reach hurricane status again- however this will be remembered as a rain maker-

S

Edited August 31, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Hurricane Debby]

000

WTNT35 KNHC 311749 CCA

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CORRECTED FOR REPEAT SECTION INTENSITY...

...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER

NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND

ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH

CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS

THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN

THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180

MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND

ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF

THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE

COAST AS A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS

OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA

INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH

SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Ernesto might not form a perfect hurricane shape but there's a lot of moisture in the system and he's going in that direction. Latest water vapour image.

Will Ernesto be US's first Hurricane of the season? Accuweather currently thinks so.

The heaviest rain looks to be well to the north of landfall as the tropical air meets and rises over a colder air mass.

Edited August 31, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[SMU]

down to 991Mb........

S

[Brrr]

North Carolina TV/Report - on Ernesto...they seem to think it's a hurricane on the way..... http://www.wral.com/index.html (live webcast on right hand side)

All the N.Carolina Tv Stations http://newslink.org/nctele.html

Belinda

Edited August 31, 2006 by Brrr

[Calrissian]

Dude, thanks for the North carol' link. works great.

---

Ernesto putting on a little late August show. Woo hoo.

Calrissian: Farewell August.

[Brrr]

Dude, thanks for the North carol' link. works great.

---

Ernesto putting on a little late August show. Woo hoo.

Calrissian: Farewell August.

Looks like it might not make hurricane status though!.... (did u notice the very 'sensible' person in the sea having a quick dip in the water )

Belinda

[Calrissian]

I'd love a nice swim this evening, especially with a near hurricane overhead. Can you imagine better swimming conditions? All that is missing is a 30ft storm surge for those surfers.

Calrissian: WRAL, news on a loop is starting to grate

[Brrr]

I'd love a nice swim this evening, especially with a near hurricane overhead. Can you imagine better swimming conditions? All that is missing is a 30ft storm surge for those surfers.

Calrissian: WRAL, news on a loop is starting to grate

Welcome to the USA! ... (or skynews for that matter)

Belinda

[Calrissian]

Hmm, well, I wouldn't know much about Tv, since I don't have one.

---

http://cbs4.com/ - live webcast link, far more interesting right now (works only with exploror, not firefox!).

---

meanwhile, Ernesto is surely Cat'1, and striving for '2.

Calrissian: loves a good fire.

[Brrr]

Hmm, well, I wouldn't know much about Tv, since I don't have one.

---

http://cbs4.com/ - live webcast link, far more interesting right now (works only with exploror, not firefox!).

---

meanwhile, Ernesto is surely Cat'1, and striving for '2.

Calrissian: loves a good fire.

Heh!.. and such commentary!... actually far less grating than the other - thanks!

but don't think Ernesto is going to be cat2...... is not far from land now

Belinda

[Calrissian]

I love fire cam. This rules, almost as much as a good Cat'3+

---

Meanwhile, Ernesto is still spinning up, and drifting NE - not particulary inland yet !

Calrissian: Forget the storm, we got a fire here !

[Brrr]

I love fire cam. This rules, almost as much as a good Cat'3+

---

Meanwhile, Ernesto is still spinning up, and drifting NE - not particulary inland yet !

Calrissian: Forget the storm, we got a fire here !

Think they should just leave the building burn. or is that a portacabin in a parkinglot?.. anyway....waste of water.... it's gone. Radioactive leak is surely more deadly?

<Must stop discussing tv on this link!, sorry>

Ernesto very close now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

Belinda

Edited August 31, 2006 by Brrr

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

990 mb

63 Kts

Is Ernesto a hurricane yet (/again)?

Edited September 1, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Kain]

He's just made his 3rd or 4th now Landfall.

70MPH...just a few off Cat 1 Hurricane.

Certianlly kept us guessing this one.

Kain

[kold weather]

Looks like Ernesto made landfall as a 70mph tropical storm however given the way it looks presently I would not rule out some new edata popping up that would allow it to be upgraded to hurricane status again. Either way the storm should now continue to weaken as it pushes inland and its power source is cut.

Looks like this storm has constantly kept you lot guessing while i was gone. In the end the the eastern route was the one it took as it moved through the weakness which I remember both myslef and Roger mentioning at the very start of the week.

Second landfall should end up being S.Florida as the system moves westwards voer Cuba then back NNW and indeed thats what all the models are currently showing and this puts great threat on the Keys because of how low lying they are and even a small surge could cut the islands off again. One other possiblty worth noting is that IF it continues NNW then it may end up even further east then the models expect IF it doesn't take a more westerly route over Cuba then it may end up being a real threat for the Bahamas and quite possibly the Carolinas. Only a small risk of that happening right now give nthe ver ygood agreement from the models but its a risk I think nonetheless and would give it lots more time to strength before making an unexpected landflal either in east Florida or even further north. The track over the next 6-12hrs should give us a good idea of exactly where its going.

[SnowBear]

Welcome back Kold!

Yes, Ernesto the Confucious I think is apt! lol

A little more challenging than say Hurricane John or Typhoon Ioke at the moment. Guess the question now is what mess Ernesto will make as it moves inland and meets the air masses further north as there is still a terrific amount of moisture and energy within the system. Various watches are out for many Atlantic states, Virginia are under tornado watches and warnings http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/tornado.html , along with flood warnings from the up to 12" rain likely to fall, http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/allwarnings.html

//

WTNT35 KNHC 011145

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

800 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...ERNESTO STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY

RAINS...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY

SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY

NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND

ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC

COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THIS

POSITION IS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT NORTH CAROLINA AND

ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A

CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE

CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND

OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185

KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT

990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH

CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE

FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND

SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...35.8 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA