Tropical Storm Ernesto

[summer blizzard]

000

WTNT45 KNHC 290909

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE INTENSITY STATEMENT FOR SECOND U.S. LANDFALL

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING

ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THE

CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA

AND IS BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTER IS JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN

PORTION OF YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE BURST NOTED IN

RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND ALSO IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 50-KT

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE

DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF

CUBA FOR PERMITTING THE RECON AIRCRAFT FLY RIGHT UP TO THEIR

COASTLINE TO GATHER THIS CRITICAL WEATHER DATA.

BASED ON THE RECON FIX INFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS

315/12...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GLOBAL

AND REGIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED NOW COURTESY OF THE

NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DATA GETTING INTO THE MODELS. THEY

ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE

MIDDLE TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA

IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE AND

SHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ERNESTO SHOULD

RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND

MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA AREA IN

60-72 HOURS. AFTER THE SECOND U.S. LANDFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED

TO BE CAUGHT UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE DRAWN

NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A

SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH

72 HOURS...AND THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS NHC CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS.

NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER...AT LEAST SOME STEADY

INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW

SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY

SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...

THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS

TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE

WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS

ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE

THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA.

ALSO...AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC...IT IS POSSIBLE

THAT IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE

MAKING A SECOND U.S. LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH

CAROLINA COASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 22.6N 78.9W 40 KT

12HR VT 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W 50 KT

24HR VT 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W 60 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W 55 KT

72HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W 40 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W 35 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane Debby]

Hurricane Tracks stance on things

UPDATED: 9:10 am EDT, August 29, 2006

THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES- LET'S HOPE IT HOLDS

Ok- Ernesto is now over the water and has begun to try to get its life back together after a major disruption over the Greater Antilles (Haiti and Cuba). Will it be a hurricane by the time it reaches Florida? It is possible and the only way we will know for sure is to keep watching all day today as the storm moves to the northwest. Landfall is expected tonight somewhere near the upper Keys with a track up the peninsula from there. Once inland, Ernesto will produce flooding rains and the potential for severe weather. Even though we have been lucky with this storm, do not take it lightly. Use common sense out there and be ready for possible severe weather- stay tuned to your local media outlets for specific information about your community.

After Ernesto hits Florida, a track towards South and North Carolina seems likely. If the storm moves farther east of the forecast track, then it could be stronger when it makes the second landfall. But first, let's deal with Florida. James Lewis, Mike Watkins and I will be out and about today in south Florida and will take wind and pressure readings along with video reports throughout the day. I will post as much as possible here throughout the afternoon and in to tonight. Our HurricaneLiveNet subscribers can monitor our work LIVE as we travel through south Florida. I will post more here later this afternoon.

[Calrissian]

That is a VERY bold prediction, hope you're right. I'd rather STS-115 not be affected anymore than already is !

I assume, you'd think on that trajectory, those in the NO will be having a bad weekend.

Of course, if Ernesto does follow that path, then that is the most energetic area for super development, so it could indeed get real nasty.

Oh well, at least the waiting it almost over, we'll know in what....12 hrs?

Calrissian: eyes on the Dvorak

[summer blizzard]

Hmm, i gree with your thought around Florida, but not in the Glulf Of Mexico, as i think that the eastern Florida Panhandle is the most likely place for landfall, although i would not rule out your idea because steering currents in the eastern Gulf Of Meixico are weak, which should aid development if it made it as far west as you think however i doubt it would make lanfall near New Orleans, this is because of a ridge in the western Gulf Of Mexico which would push Ernesto south west with a probable landfall in Texas or Mexico, i will not rule out your idea however it is unlikely.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/ATL/...-793W.100pc.jpg

Heres a visable, i would not rule out Tropical Storm Ernesto nearing 60mph now.

Edited August 29, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Gray-Wolf]

I keep reading the advisory's and then checking all the 'bigger picture' sat. loops to see if I can spot the changes we are promised by the NHC that will bring about Ernesto's 'retrograde' movements but I still don't see any 'signs' of anything on the ground (or in the upper levels either) other than that which is driving my opinions on where he's bound!!.

What a novice I am proving myself to be!! My track , if you loose the last point which would mean keeping Ernesto hugging the West Florida coast, still looks quite conservative IMHO.

Humble pie in the oven and appitite building for later. :unsure:

Edited August 29, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

Don't forget to share it with your 'Evil Twin', GW. :unsure: (If it doesn't incinerate in the oven that is!)

Edited August 29, 2006 by crimsone

[Calrissian]

I keep reading the advisory's and then checking all the 'bigger picture' sat. loops to see if I can spot the changes we are promised by the NHC that will bring about Ernesto's 'retrograde' movements but I still don't see any 'signs' of anything on the ground (or in the upper levels either) other than that which is driving my opinions on where he's bound!!.

What is clear is that the forecast for Ernesto has been relatively poor throughout. From the initial target landfall of Texas, to the coast of Florida even. After so many errors, why would the forecast all work out right now?

Calrissian: Pie good.

[crimsone]

Looking at the models, it seems that most expect the cyclone to go west before being drawn northwards over florida. Comparing the current visible to the NRLMRY image posted earlier, I think what they might be expecting to cause this is a northward moving column of air just to the west of Florida (marked in red on the attached image), though it looks pretty weak to my untrained eye.

I personally wouldn't be suprised if Ernesto made a panhandle landfall, or even further west...

As much as the highlighted bit is actually banding from Ernesto, it is flowing Northwards in the stream, and the column can be further identified by a blob of convection near the panhandle, which sends a small amount of cloud into the column, witch is flowing to the NE over the north of the Florida Peninsula.

It seems it's about time for those in the Keys to pick up their surfboards and run like crazy over the non-sensical roadbridge back to the Florida mainland.

Edited August 29, 2006 by crimsone

[Brrr]

Just incase anyone is intersted current live streaming from CBS / Miami Dade

http://cbs4.com/

Also ABC Local 10 http://www.local10.com/index.html

Belinda

Edited August 29, 2006 by Brrr

[Calrissian]

Aye, thanks for the reminder.

CB4 coverage is pretty good, and for storm freaks, it's on beginning right about...........NOW !

Calrissian: streaming

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:50 am EDT, August 29, 2006

SO FAR, SO GOOD WITH ERNESTO AS IT SLOWLY GATHERS STRENGTH

Quick update- the NHC has the new info out and it looks like Ernesto is only slowly getting better organized. This is certainly good news for people in Florida. The forecast shows a landfall late tonight in the upper Keys with a path just west of the big east coast cities thereafter. This will put Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, among other locations, within the right side of the storm. People can expect strong winds that could knock out power and cause other problems with falling trees and minor damage. From that point on, it looks as though Enresto will track northward in to the peninsula and then back out over the Atlantic with a second landfall somewhere in the Carolinas. We will focus more on that later as things evolve. Right now I am in Vero Beach on I-95 heading south towards the upper Keys. Pressure here is 1017 MB with partly cloudy skies and muggy, muggy air outside. I will post more here later this afternoon.

Courtesy Hurricane Trackl

(Don''t know if anyone is interested but for only $24.99 - about £12 - you can sign up to Hurricane Tracks Hurricane Net Live with almost constant live streaming. Mark Sudduth is currently on his way to Florida now to hopefully catch Ernesto and will be reporting live for the next 24 hours. I signed up last night so can't vouch if its any good or not but the live streaming of him travelling today seem ok. )

[summer blizzard]

000

WTNT45 KNHC 291454

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF

ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA

PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A

NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE

CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS

NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP

CONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL

A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER

TODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO

BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE

OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE

GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AFTER ERNESTO MOVES

FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE

INDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG

THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY

THUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE

315/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN

ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A

COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED

SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 23.3N 79.5W 40 KT

12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W 55 KT

24HR VT 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W 45 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W 60 KT

72HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W 25 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

ALL OVER AGAIN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/ATL/...-792W.100pc.jpg

New burst of convection to the south, and a decaying centre to the north.

[summer blizzard]

It seems that we are entering an imortant time for Tropical Storm Ernesto, if Tropical Storm Ernesto is to make landfall in the Florida mainland, the system needs to make a northward turn before midnight otherwise rapid development can be expected with landfall n the western Florida Panhandle.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The low currently over the west Florida panhandle is moving north now so it won't be long before Ernesto follows. In fact has the northwards turn begun already? If so Ernesto will not get a chance to redevelop into a hurricane in the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Eastern panhandle at a push.

Edited August 29, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I hope all is as the NHC would have us believe as the 'Evil Twin' is still stuck over Cuba at the moment so there's a big hole in the SE quad of Ernesto that hasn't joined the fray yet and is spareing S. Florida. Should the energy from that convection pass over and into Eresto's SE Quad then the low to his SW will have a lesser affect on his forward motion as seems apparent at present (he'll slow down). Any 'slow down' will help him re-organise better than he has managed so far today (he's been dragged into an elipse by the push the low to his SW has given him) so there's still time for him yet.

Any rustling is the sound of fingers on straw......

Edited August 29, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Roger J Smith]

Radar from Key West shows that Ernesto has opened up with a very large, ragged eye surrounded by a rather brief (in duration) squally band of 30-45 knot winds.

It's about to move inland, and will probably move quickly through Florida at about 80.5 to 81 W re-emerging into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach tomorrow afternoon.

The more significant risk now would seem to be heavy rainfall in the zone north and west of Washington DC and Philadelphia, as far north as Lake Ontario into southern Ontario. The reason for this is that the storm should intensify to near cat-1 status on Friday near Cape Hatteras, move NNW and become entangled in a block situation due to sprawling high pressure over northern Ontario.

Some models are indicating 10-15 inch rainfalls over a three day period this weekend in the inland northeast and mid-Atlantic states. This weekend happens to be the three-day Labour Day weekend (Labor Day in the US).

[SnowBear]

Interesting really, the model that had Ernesto sussed really was the AVNO, some time before Haiti, but it was the GFDL which showed the northward shift first.

[i luv snow]

I have a friend who lives in Miami, Florida and he's saying the conditions are really bad there as it is. So all the best for the people there if it isnt as bad, just not as good for us sitting here warm and safe in lil old england :lol:

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...-799W.100pc.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...-799W.100pc.jpg

It looks as though the centre of the system will miss Florida and move into the Gulf Of Mexico however it also looks as though the centre has been exposed, unless i am mistaken, this system is now a open wave.

[crimsone]

The center can be exposed as long as the circulation remains closed. The next NHC advisory will no doubt say if this has happened.

[summer blizzard]

I understand what you mean however to my eyes the circulation is exposed, Tropical Storm Ernesto is no more, this system is nothing more than a open wave.

[crimsone]

The center is not open, and Ernesto is still A TS...

000

WTNT35 KNHC 292354

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...ERNESTO NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE

WATCHES IN FLORIDA DISCONTINUED...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...ALL HURRICANE WATCHES FOR FLORIDA ARE

DISCONTINUED.

AT 9 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DISCONTINUE ALL

HURRICANE WATCHES IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD ON THE

FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND

NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA

KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE

BERRY ISLANDS...THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO

TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE

FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15

MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70

MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON

THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE

NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR

MIDNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF

ERNESTO OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH

WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6

INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE

KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...24.8 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[summer blizzard]

Tropical Storm Ernest intensified before landfall to 1001mb, and the centre is over the west coast of Florida.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...-808W.100pc.jpg

[NL]

Some stunnig photo's of TS Ernesto..

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:50 pm EDT, August 30, 2006

THIS ONE COULD BE CLOSE- ERNESTO NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC

Ernesto is now moving back out over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The clock starts ticking as the more time it spends over water, the stronger it can become. The official forecast track shows Ernesto making landfall near Myrtle Beach late tomorrow night as a strong tropical storm. It is important to emphasize that intensity forecasting is still very tough to do and it is not impossible that Ernesto becomes a hurricane just before landfall. As I like to tell people- plan for a category more than is forecast and you should do fine- in this case, assume Ernesto will intensify to a minimal hurricane and plan accordingly- then there won't be any nasty surprises. With this track, most of eastern North Carolina will be within the onshore flow within the right-front quadrant. It is possible that a 3 to 5 foot surge could accompany Ernesto where the winds pile the water up against the shoreline. Areas away from the coast can expect flooding rains, strong winds at times and the possibility of tornadoes. Tomorrow will be an interesting day to say the least. I will be out and about with the Chevy Tahoe to measure wind speeds at the coast. For our HLN subscribers, be sure to tune in all day long as Ernesto makes its final play. I will post video and text updates here when possible. If, and I say IF with big time "I" and "F", Ernesto becomes a hurricane, I want to be on the coast to try and snag those winds to help confirm this. We shall see what happens. Once past the Carolinas, Ernesto should move northward in to Virginia and die out as its heavy rains spread in to the mid-Atlantic.

Courtesy Hurricane Track