Tropical Storm Ernesto

[Gray-Wolf]

And that is just the point! why has he now had a big burst of convection to the south of Cuba????? (about where recon were this a.m.) he seemed to be doing ok'ish, he looked to have his centre past the last bit of land and now I don't know again as he goes all dumb bell on us............is his centre going to reform to the south and have to face going over Cuba again? has he really shifted a little to the east this pm? will he ever get out of that bleedin' channel ???? ......all this and much more will be free for all to see over the next 6hrs

[crimsone]

LOL!!!!! Very good points.

Perhaps "the center has seperated from the deep convection" (or so the phrase goes - we've heared that a lot this year so far), or perhaps he's having second thoughts and trying to backtrack into the Carribean after not liking the look of Cuba.

Maybe it's some sort of "cyclonic cloning" either side of Cuba - like cell mitosis or something.

Edited August 28, 2006 by crimsone

[tinybill]

LOL!!!!! Very good points.

Perhaps "the center has seperated from the deep convection" (or so the phrase goes - we've heared that a lot this year so far), or perhaps he's having second thoughts and trying to backtrack into the Carribean after not liking the look of Cuba.

Maybe it's some sort of "cyclonic cloning" either side of Cuba - like cell mitosis or something.

how far more left will he go i saw a track the other day going a lot more left then the ones at the moment,if im watching fox news later their an live update soon from the hurricane centre

[Gray-Wolf]

Some of the other forums are talking of 3 separate vortices out there at the moment. No. 1 is the easern tip of Cuba, No. 2 is in that bust of convection to the south of Ernie and No. 3 is inland over the mountains somewhere. Of course the U.S. and Cuba aren't the best of buddies so recon can't fly there so we are all gonna be working on sat images until he's out of Cuban airspace.

Here's a good watch,

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...fDisplay48.html

time lapse of the story so far

Edited August 28, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Calrissian]

okay, thats enough. This storm is starting to annoy me. Just what the hell is going on? One moment it seems like its well on the way to crossing the lower part of Cuba, now it seems to offshore to the south.

This storm, despite it being weak at present, seems resilient, I'd still suggest an eventual westward track, but then again... maybe it'll just hang around Cuba for a few weeks ?

Annoying, but almost entertaining at the same time.

Calrissian: tired

[summer blizzard]

SUPRISE, SUPRISE

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...hern_hemisphere

As you can see, the center has relocated itself yet again, to the south of Cuba.

[Calrissian]

Ha, south of Cuba, indeed ! I'd give ya good money if it moves that centre somewhat west as the hours slip by overnight.

EDIT - dead link removed

Calrissian: net tv RULES !

Edited August 28, 2006 by Calrissian

[crimsone]

The NHC seem to disagree. They put the center to the north of Cuba.

000

WTNT35 KNHC 282035

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...THREAT OF

HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS

OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED

FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM

SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE

OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE

DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM

CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW

SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE

BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND

GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND

CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THIS

POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 60 MILES...

100 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF

CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER

WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP

TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2

TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE

BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH

WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Gray-Wolf]

So I've been concerning myself with the ' Evil Twin ' all day whilst Ernesto stole acoss the island .

If the plot is true to the NHC plot then Ernesto is still short of moisture out to his west (from the WV loop) though he has a 'wave crest' of moisture to his north which seems to be about to 'splash' down into front of him.

[crimsone]

My word that lot's a mess!

The evil twin at the moment seems more powerful than Ernesto on that image. lol. Perhaps recon should investigate that instead!

[Calrissian]

I'm sorry, but when I look at this....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

all I see is the centre SOUTH of Cuba, and it hasn't really moved all day. All this talk of NW movement, blah !

The thing is, the NHC - and other models have been totally wrong about this storm ALL the time. First they tell us its heading for Texas, then miss, lou, now Florida. I'm not saying its hard, because it is, and Ernesto is one of those too difficult to predict storms.

Anyone else on the Ernesto is too wild to predict train ?

Calrissian: watching the big yellow lump remain static

[summer blizzard]

I do not understand why the NHC are going with the northern centre, as the southern centre is clearly the more dominant centre with deeper convection, i do not care what the NHC say, from now on, i will say that as of 22:15, the centre of Tropical Storm Ernest is located near 20N, 75W and has made landfall in Cuba for a second time.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...om&PROD=geo

Scratch that, i was only looking at vapour loops, the southern centre is not closed off yet, therefore the NHC is right to go with the northern centre.

Edited August 28, 2006 by summer blizzard

[crimsone]

I suspect the believe that that is where the LLC is - though the convection to the south is inarguably the stronger, if it doesn't have a closed LLC, then it's not Ernesto.

(seems Summer blizzard had the same thought at the same time as me. )

Is the southern mass a listed invest I wonder. If not, why not?

Edited August 28, 2006 by crimsone

[summer blizzard]

Interesting point Crimsone, usually we would see two desernable centers within one mass of convection, and it would simply be a case of which one is the most dominant however the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto has decoupled from the main mass of convection, and there is another open center which does suggest to me that the system is infact an open wave and that once the southern centre is closed off, we should have Tropical Storm Florence.

[SnowBear]

Ermmmmm, the Dvorak shows the centre at about 20N 76W, last frame, 22.45UTC is I think 11.45pm BST?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html

Loop shows the continuation of the NCP track plots, and as of yet, Ernesto hasnt appeared off the northern shore of Cuba yet. Toggle MSLP and you can see the pressure gradient centring down to that location. Also watch closely and you can see the probable centre in the Funktop.

It has got messy, but will reorganise into a common centre once most has cleared Cuba, I am going to guess that it will be the co-ords I mention above that will continue on and be the true centre again.

Edit: Geeshhhh, I dunno, guess it dont matter where the centre is at the moment, just looking at the sat pics though, feel once that lot gets into open water, its gonna possibly bomb if it can move far enough offshore to Cuba.

Edited August 28, 2006 by SnowBear

[Calrissian]

Clearly, its a mess. Too many predictions, all of them wrong ! I bet Ernesto will still be in the same area in twelve hours time (I guess thats another prediction though, so I hope its wrong).

ohh look, a mini hurricane just on the west coast of Florida, how great is that? Late night madness ?

Calrissian: time for sleeping pills (or not?)

[parmenides3]

Ernesto has shifted Northward across Cuba overnight, and is still predicted to hit Miami. LP is only 1007, but he will pick up once he is clear of land. Latest advisory:

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR NEAR THE

NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF

CANAGUA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHEAST

OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES ...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST

OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.

A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WATER

LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE

FLORIDA STRAITS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP

TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2

TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE

BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH

WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...22.2 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Source: NOAA

P

[Gray-Wolf]

So, about 'Evil Twin'.

when I first asked about him it was Saturday,Ernesto was approaching Haiti and K.w. told me it was probably residual storm activity from the sheared environment Ernesto had dealt with the day before.

We then had the 'crossing of Haiti', the evil twin kept to the east of Ernesto and crossed the central (tougher area) of the Dominican Republic. The NHC advised us that at t96 Ernesto would have an 'unexplained' halt in growth.

Yesterday I spent all day focused on the pogress of 'Evil Twin' thinking Ernesto's centre was somewhere inside him only for the 5 pm advisory to plot him (Ernesto) exiting the island in a small circulation to the west of the main area of convection.

So what of today? NHC are downgrading Ernesto's threat all the while, Ernesto is putting on some bulk over open water and 'Evil Twin'? well he's just hailing out've Cuba and will also start to 'bulk out' over open water.

My problem is tying to figure what goes down next.

All along 'Evil Twin' has had the more vigorous convection of the two areas and ,prior to the islands, was the depression centre. Now they will both be back into open ,warm,waters and both growing. Prior to entering Cuba 'Evil Twin had a rapid convective busrt which (briefly) had circulation, will todays pedicted growth by 'Evil Twin' lead to another vortex developing for I feel that if it does then Ernesto will become secondary to the bigger 'Twin' and may well become absorbed by 'Twinny'. So where would that leave the plots? well nowhere really

Edited August 29, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[SnowBear]

Its a mess! lol

We are learning lots from Ernesto, maybe it will be reknowned for being complex, confusing, being an A$$ to forecast, showing we dont know much about these storms at times rather than strength and normality.

That AVNO model track had a good call a few days ago, on where it would hit Cuba and exit with the skimming along the coast almost.

Edited August 29, 2006 by SnowBear

[Calrissian]

Good call on the 'evil twin'. ET' is still a very much distinct area, and does not appear to be fading away yet. Can it really survive much longer?

A long day ahead.

[Gray-Wolf]

Seeing as we should know in 4hrs or so whether or not the Floida collision is happening this could indeed be a busy and interesting day! The current motion of Ernesto looks 90 degrees skewed to the direction that would be needed to follow the NHC's track. It looks like (to me) Enesto will hit the SW tip of Florida and off into the Gulf (i.e. he'll thread the eye of the needle). The suns about to rise out there so here we go for today. You watch Evil Twin flare to the rear of Ernesto (and call me names if he doesn't !!!)

Edited August 29, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[parmenides3]

Just thought I'd throw this into the mix. Two more TWs being tracked, one quite large area on the sat. looks threatening;

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N...MOVING

W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS

SUPERIMPOSED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER...BROAD CYCLONIC

CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW TO

MID CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A NEW BURST OF SCATTERED

MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 11N-13N

BETWEEN 25W-29W. A SMALLER CLUSTER IS NOTED NEAR 8N28W.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 22N MOVING W

NEAR 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. BROAD

CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS VERY EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD

FIELD AROUND THE WAVE AXIS AND SURFACE LOW...THOUGH DEEP

CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.

Could be a busy few days.

[Calrissian]

You watch Evil Twin flare to the rear of Ernesto (and call me names if he doesn't !!!)

Hmm...

I remain utterly confused by this bizarre little storm - and little it remains, yet if I had to bet, I'd go with your view. I see no reason why it must straight north, westwards...into the GOM. As for ET, if it last for 12 more hours, its a baby storm for sure.

Calrissian: Offensive names on standby

[summer blizzard]

It looks as though the southern centre closed off overnight and is now the primary centre, while the outflow is inhibited by the landmass, it does look as though a CDO is forming, right now, i would estimate a 55mph Tropical Storm, and strengthening, at the moment, the centre is around 79W, 24N, its motion seems erratic , but westerly at the moment, if it can make it past 80W, and not get above 24N, then i will say that a Florida Panhandle landfall is more likely than a mainland Florida hit, either way, i expect a hurricane at landfall.

[Gray-Wolf]

This is where I think Ernies bound today and tonight. There's no way he can complete the manouvres the NHC's tack would have him undertake with his curent movement of WNW. We would be seeing signs around him that the environment was radically altering to allow for this 90 degree turn (in such a restricted area) As such the purple line I've drawn on the map (West Florida coast/Gulf coast) are the areas I feel are most at risk from Ernesto on the track I've plotted.

Ta to the NHC for the use of their graphics.

Edited August 29, 2006 by Gray-Wolf