Tropical Storm Ernesto

[kold weather]

Overnight Ernesto hs slightly strengthened with winds now upto 45mph and pressure down to 999mbs. Prehaps more importantly Ernesto has much improved in terms of organisation as I sort of half expected last night however what has happened is the shear has eased off a little which as we started to see yesterday has allowed the LLC to fall back with the MLC. It has got some deep convection and IF it can keep this as it heads into the central Caribbean expect some pretty fast development, major hurricane status before Cuba/yucatan channel isn't as silly a sit sounds and its a very real chance. Any fast development shouldn't occur at least for the next 12-24hrs however as the shear is still present even if it has lessened off since last night and the cente ris in the western most mass of convection so its still lop-sided.

The models are even more concerning bringing Ernesto on a similar track to hurricane Ivan 2 years ago that ruined Pensacola:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

However these models may well be being over-progressive and considering Ernesto is to the south of where the models expected right now the probablity is the storm will be to the west of the models which will probably put Texas and LA in the firing zone and considering this was the week Katrina hit last year it would be very bad luck if something similar occured this year. However its still FAR to early to tell about track and possible landfall but I'm very concerened about this storm now given just how favorable the gulf is, depending on timings of eyewall replacement cycles in the gulf cat-4/5 is certainly a possiblty.

Edited August 26, 2006 by kold weather

[Blackie]

depending on timings of eyewall replacement cycles in the gulf cat-4/5 is certainly a possiblty.

Are you saying it's definitely probable then, kw?

Seriously, could be a big worry if it maintains strength before hitting the Gulf. Looks like the hurricane season is about to spring back to life with a vengeance.

Edited August 26, 2006 by Blackie

[Gray-Wolf]

The models are even more concerning bringing Ernesto on a similar track to hurricane Ivan 2 years ago that ruined Pensacola:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

However these models may well be being over-progressive and considering Ernesto is to the south of where the models expected right now the probablity is the storm will be to the west of the models which will probably put Texas and LA in the firing zone and considering this was the week Katrina hit last year it would be very bad luck if something similar occured this year. However its still FAR to early to tell about track and possible landfall but I'm very concerened about this storm now given just how favorable the gulf is, depending on timings of eyewall replacement cycles in the gulf cat-4/5 is certainly a possiblty.

Most models show Him in the G.O.M. by wednesday and, looking at the potential pressure/wind speed available out there, he may attain major status again even if he does wrangle both Jamaica and west Cuba (lets not have Yukatan blasted again eh?) on his way through. That funny corrolis turn that 'canes do when running under their own steam would swing him aound the Pensacola area but that is way too close to New Orleans esp. if it runs a big surge in front of it. Time will tell.

[kold weather]

The whole Gulf coast will have to watch it, but esp from Pensacola to New Orleans given how hard they have been hit the last 2 seasons. My own idea is a landfall t othe west of New-Orleans, prehaps quite close to where Rita made landfall but the track is still uncertain and a little change here and there will make the difference between a Texas landfall and a Florida panhandle landfall. For what its worth by the way the NHC has Ernesto as a category-3 hurricane in the gulf of Mexico:

Pray that it doesn't get much further east then is shown on that forecast because that would put New Orleans in all sorts of troubole, however for now the models will keep shifting and the NHC will also shift from forecast to forecast.

Edited August 26, 2006 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

So far as shear is concerned the 'battle of the shear' appears to be being fought over Hispaniola at the mo. and Ernesto is looking like he is winning (the convection to his NE is spinning into and through the area of shear that 'deformed' that quadrant of Ernesto yesterday) Meanwhile Ernesto looks to be bulking out with gusto!! and the sun has only just risen out there!. Maybe some rapid strengthening through daylight today and he may be under his own 'steam' by tonight!

[SnowBear]

Recon will be taking off approx 15.15GMT/4.15pm BST today, for fix times beginning at 18.00GMT/7pm BST and a final fix before return home at 00.00GMT/1am BST in the morning. Long flight today, 6 hours in Ernesto's area, plus the 2.75 hour flight to and from, total, 11.5 approx hours in the air!

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE

FLIGHT ONE

A. 26/1800,27/0000Z

B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE

C. 26/1515Z

D. 15.4N 72.3W

E. 26/1700Z TO 27/0000Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Ernesto is certainly looking more and more a real threat.

The contrast of colours used in the Funktop loop, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ft.html show the core quite well I think, the green spinning within the red, and as you can see, the core seems to be taking a more central postition within the system as it begins to organise itself better now the shear has backed off.

QuikSCAT is finding 45knt/51mph winds again, recon will find Cat 1 today me thinks.

Edited August 26, 2006 by SnowBear

[crimsone]

pressure down to 999mbs

Finally a cyclone has passed the 1000 barrier - A few this year have got to 1000, but only this one's broken through it (apart from Alberto, it seems. lol). I'll be watching this one with crossed fingers - it may be to early to forecast landfall, but the thought of a major hurricane hitting New Orleans again makes me feel quite sick.

Public Advisory 7A...

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH

ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

That's another 2mb pressure drop in three hours. Will this rate keep up?

My other question of course, it that that ULL (I think it's a ULL at least!) ahead of it is embedded in a large mass of dry air. Is that exepected to remain in the area, and if so, will Ernesto retain a large enough blanket around it to insulate itself as it passes through?

Edited August 26, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

Ummmm, keep eyes on the GFDL track, http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Last frame on the Funktop (11.45 UTC) shows a shunt north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ft.html

Edited August 26, 2006 by SnowBear

[Calrissian]

Good day all.

Well, after a few months of waiting, - nevermind the long winter/spring, looks like its back to business again. We got outselves here a pretty impressive storm heading into the GOM.

Latest Dvorak, looks like a discernible eye now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

Baring some weird collapse, looks like Ernesto is a certain Cat'3. However, as I noted earlier, the min' low certainly allows for the possiblity of pressure down to 880'ish. Nasty !

So, its time to get stocked up on biscuits, or whatever you fancy, and settle in for what looks to be the first biggie of the season.

As I've read on other non-met forums, for those in the cone of death, the time to prepare is now, and it ain't no good relying on the federal govt !

Calrissian: His cupboards are stacked with biscuits

[crimsone]

Or if you're in new Orleans, by that same token, now's the time to start worrying like crazy because you no longer have cupboards to stock? (I didn't mean that in a funny way either ) Fingers crossed that it won't happen.

Edited August 26, 2006 by crimsone

[Calrissian]

Or if you're in new Orleans, by that same token, now's the time to start worrying like crazy because you no longer have cupboards to stock? (I didn't mean that in a funny way either ) Fingers crossed that it won't happen.

I don't mean to stray too much onto NO...but...

Am I the only who last year felt that after 40yrs or so of 'getting lucky', that not would Katrina hit, but that in 2006/7 would be hit again. Statisically speaking, the NO area was just so fortunate. Conversely, there I would believe it is now swinging back the other way, with another direct hit either this or next year.

---

On the radar, Ernesto looking strong.

Calrissian: Chooses to live above sea level - since he is not stupid.

[crimsone]

Calrissian: Chooses to live above sea level - since he is not stupid.

Well, I can't argue with that, but I thought that NO was once above Sea level? I guess if the oil rigs stopped removing the ground on which NewOrleans stands, it might not be sinking lol

As it happens, I've just started a thread for seasons banter, which I guess such things would fall into, which means my NO feelings can be posted there. lol Maybe others would like to follow

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Jamaica will get a battering. Latest projections suggest Jamaica will be to the north/east side of the storm track, the quadrent where the winds are strongest.

Around Jamaica I expect explosive development from Servere Tropical Storm to Cat 2/3 Hurricane. This much is suggested by heat potential and heat depth maps which show a large source of hot water waiting for Ernesto in the north west portion of the Carribean.

There is a lot of moist air surrounding Ernesto as can be seen from greyed parts of this water vapour floater. Wind Shear is always a problem with tropical storm development but on the premise dry shear is more damaging than wet shear this should not stop Ernesto reaching hurricane status before Jamaica.

After that, I don't know where it's going. My reading of the steering winds is it's going to bomb the Yucatan and regarding a threat to the US Gulf States it will be a question of how much of Ernesto survives and if it can reform into a hurricane.

Edited August 26, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[crimsone]

It seems the Track Forecast has been moved a 120hrs. I don't like the look of this one, and I certainly hope it isn't right - there's a long way to go yet though...

Edited August 26, 2006 by crimsone

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The above track really would be the worse case sernario for the Gulf States. There is a huge hot upwelling that it will need to avoid if New Orleans is not going to have a repeat of Katrina.

In what state are the new flood defenses?

[Calrissian]

The above track really would be the worse case sernario for the Gulf States. There is a huge hot upwelling that it will need to avoid if New Orleans is not going to have a repeat of Katrina.

In what state are the new flood defenses?

Flood defences: err, barely begun to repair, never mind 'improve'. The pumping stations are in a mess, since the new pumps vibrate too much and are needing to be remade.

As for 'repeat of katrina'. Well, most realise that NO got off relatively lightly. Barely a cat 2 at landfall, and a large % of the storm surge was elsewhere.

I read recently that NO can NOT cope with anything, even a TS would be devastating.

---

Meanwhile, Ernesto is on his way.

Calrissian: Saturday is DIY day

[Gray-Wolf]

The track that he's curently on really doesn't bode well for the southern Gulf states (once it's finished with the Caribbean) and all the chatter about the size Ernesto will make in the Gulf must be of great concern to FEMA at the mo'.

FEMA will probably feel they really have to put on a 'we can do it' show for their first major of the year. If he becomes broad and doesn't hit straight on then there will be a very wide swathe of coastal devestation for them to deal with. If he hits a major settlement area then I hope it ain't N.O. again 'cause I don't think it's up to it and that'll be it's centre flooded again (and time to cut losses there!).

Anyhow, as we all know, a lot can go on between now and thursday!

Edited August 26, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Flood defences: err, barely begun to repair, never mind 'improve'. The pumping stations are in a mess, since the new pumps vibrate too much and are needing to be remade.

As for 'repeat of katrina'. Well, most realise that NO got off relatively lightly. Barely a cat 2 at landfall, and a large % of the storm surge was elsewhere.

I read recently that NO can NOT cope with anything, even a TS would be devastating.

---

Meanwhile, Ernesto is on his way.

Calrissian: Saturday is DIY day

That's very worrying. The fate of New Orleans is rather in the lap of the Gods then, this time. Since last year's devastation every time a hurricane comes near the Gulf we think of New Orleans. But New Orleans isn't a hurricane magnet and there's a whole coastline that might be affected. The models are sure to change.

If Ernesto manages to get into the Gulf as a water thrashing Cat 3 there also will be an impact on oil production in part of the Gulf and the oil price will rise. Not good for the economy and we shell out more of our $$$$ to Islamonasty oil Sheihks.

re: DIY. I've been sand papering - by hand - wallpaper stuck to the downstairs toilet wall. Chewed up my right thumb, otherwise an effective way to scrub away those last islands of glue and paper.

Edited August 26, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[SnowBear]

Recon messeges are slow today..I reckon we will see Cat 1 by the time recon return to base tonight.

Track? A scenic tour round the north of Jamaica first I think!

[SMU]

There are certainly some worrying signs from a New orleans viewpoint-

As posted the steering currents do put the storm on course with the Gulf Coast states- although there still enough time & enough margin for error to not start boarding the houses up just yet-

Eyewall trying to form........ Maybe-

The GOM is VERY favourable for rapid development at the moment, the loop current is deep & VERY warm & the Sheer looks to die at Day 5 just as Ernesto enters the Gulf...........

S

Edited August 26, 2006 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Firs tof all the possible landfall of the storm into Jamaica. just an intresting thing to note that stronger storms often rebound around islands so if this one gets upto 100mph befor eJamiaca it might try to pull an Ivan and dart around Jamaica leaving it in the eyewall.

I'm really worried about this one though, this could be another monster disaster even if it misses New Orleans directly. Remember that the area from the west Florida panhandle to west LA was hammered in the alst few years, by Dennis, Ivan, Katrina and Rita, another hurricane wil lseverely impact on the econmic side of things. Th enext track issue from the NHC should have the storm just to the east of New Orleans and given the global models I'd probably favor somewhere like Alabama or close to that region.

Before I talk about track its intresting to note that actually Ernesto is further nort hof where it was expected to be at this point, so its probably wobbled northwards a touch as the convection expoldes again and re-formed its center in repsonse to this. Should be very intresting to see if this changes the models idea about landfall at all, should shift slightly more to the east.

anyway onto the most important factor, strength. I'm really worried about this storm as its getting into more and more favorable set-up. Heat content isn't amazing right now though under light shear its still more then enough for a hurricane and given the shear has really eased off this could well be a hurricane by tommorow. It should given the looks of it and the deep convection with banding, be about 60mph right now and that would be my own punt, strengthen to hurricane status by 12hrs time dependant on whether ther eis much dry air taken in from DR to its north and those mammoth mountions.

Beyond that and stready strengthening probably into a cat-2 is likely before landfall in Jamaica . After that and probably upto cat-3 status before crsosing Cuba and re-strengthening on the other side. How strong depends on its exact track but there is a fair chance it'll cross the loop current, the same thing that turnt hurricane Dennis from a 75mph hurricane to 145mph in the matte rof 12hrs, turned Katrina into a cat-5 as well as Rita, turned Charley from a cat-2 to a high end cat-4 in the matter of 6-9hrs. If it gets into the rioght spot near the loop current and its still structurally stable then a cat-4/5 is highly likely. Gotta pray for wherever it hits that it undergoes an Eyewall replacement cycle at the right time to prevent it from getting too strong.

Either way this storm could well go down as one of those legends if everything falls into place.

(ps, Steve I don't think its that far yet but the center of circulation is becoming easier to find even on IR now.)

Edited August 26, 2006 by kold weather

[SMU]

Firs tof all the possible landfall of the storm into Jamaica. just an intresting thing to note that stronger storms often rebound around islands so if this one gets upto 100mph befor eJamiaca it might try to pull an Ivan and dart around Jamaica leaving it in the eyewall.

I'm really worried about this one though, this could be another monster disaster even if it misses New Orleans directly. Remember that the area from the west Florida panhandle to west LA was hammered in the alst few years, by Dennis, Ivan, Katrina and Rita, another hurricane wil lseverely impact on the econmic side of things. Th enext track issue from the NHC should have the storm just to the east of New Orleans and given the global models I'd probably favor somewhere like Alabama or close to that region.

Before I talk about track its intresting to note that actually Ernesto is further nort hof where it was expected to be at this point, so its probably wobbled northwards a touch as the convection expoldes again.

anyway onto the most important factor, strength. I'm really worried about this storm as its getting into more and more favorable set-up. Heat content isn't amazing right now though under light shear its still more then enough for a hurricane and given the shear has really eased off this could well be a hurricane by tommorow. It should given the looks of it and the deep convection with banding, be about 60mph right now and that would be my own punt, strengthen to hurricane status by 12hrs time dependant on whether ther eis much dry air taken in from DR to its north and those mammoth mountions.

Beyond that and stready strengthening probably into a cat-2 is likely before landfall in Jamaica . After that and probably upto cat-3 status before crsosing Cuba and re-strengthening on the other side. How strong depends on its exact track but there is a fair chance it'll cross the loop current, the same thing that turnt hurricane Dennis from a 75mph hurricane to 145mph in the matte rof 12hrs, turned Katrina into a cat-5 as well as Rita, turned Charley from a cat-2 to a high end cat-4 in the matter of 6-9hrs. If it gets into the rioght spot near the loop current and its still structurally stable then a cat-4/5 is highly likely. Gotta pray for wherever it hits that it undergoes an Eyewall replacement cycle at the right time to prevent it from getting too strong.

Either way this storm could well go down as one of those legends if everything falls into place.

(ps, Steve I don't think its that far yet but the center of circulation is becoming easier to find even on IR now.)

good post Kold- anxious times ahead for the Gulf states.......

Just seen the latest vortex message- a good gradient across I & J-

000

URNT12 KNHC 261842

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 26/1754Z

B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N

71 DEG 07 MIN W

C. 850 MB 1415 M

D. 40 KT

E. 334 DEG 27 NM

F. 118 DEG 51 KT

G. 017 DEG 591 NM

H. 997 MB

I. 15 C/ 1523 M

J. 22 C/ 1511 M

K. 15 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345/8

O. 0.2/3 NM

P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO

MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

S

Edited August 26, 2006 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Yep that Gradient is pretty good for a tropical storm, a great sign that its quite healthy considering at one point yesterday there was just 1C difference. By the way Ernesto should start to get over higher heat content over the next 6-12hrs, thats when the development into a hurricane is most likely to get going.

(Sat estimates show Ernesto at 60mph right now as well.)

Edited August 26, 2006 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Recon has just found a wind of 65mph at the surface with pressure at 1002mbs:

1002mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 65 mph

988mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 77 mph

980mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 71 mph

946mb winds: ESE (120°) @ 75 mph

844mb winds: SE (135°) @ 54 mph

Very impressive and slightly higher then I thought they would find via Dropsonde but it does look like its going to have its winds upped come next advisory. Still sat.estimates do agree wit hthe winds being raised either to 60mph or 65mph, not that suprising mind you to see that considering it has orgnaised convection with it and the convection has now covered the center pretty well.

(ps, the center may well be under-going slight trochoidal wobbles as the center establishes itslef unde rthe strong convection.)

Edited August 26, 2006 by kold weather

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

On the latest loop Ernesto seems to have gone from a NW to a Wly track. I think it will pass just to the south of Jamaica, putting the Island in the kill zone, but it's a bit early to tell. Looks like it will become a hurricane within a day so the Jamaicans better get off the beach and into storm shelter pretty soon. Edited August 26, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower