Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[carinthian]

Carinthian, excellent posts as ever, do you have a link for sst's in the areas?

Thanks for your interest Cal. If you e-mail Summer Blizzard, he might be your best bet for a ssts link ?

Sunny Scunny.. What a place!

PS Keep posting.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Greeting all,

The latest Arctic Report as I see it. Well here goes.

1. Strong negative AO phase.( soon to become established)

2.Retention of a strong Greenland high, possibly with a link to a Mid - Atlantic high amplitude ridge.

3. Retention of the North Barent cold pool. ( established for some time now)

If this cold pool can push into the Norwegian Sea and the non - toppling high amplitude ridge forms we will be in for a classical Arctic winter, even in our latitudes. I am now more optomistic !

Carinthian

Carinthian

Do you have timings for when you anticipate for number 2

Is this the sort of set up you are looking for :blink:

Here

Also for AO...looking good Houston

Here

BFTP

Edited October 18, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[carinthian]

Thanks for your report Carinthian, it makes for good reading!

Phil.

hI Phil,

Thanks. I hope so.

C

[carinthian]

Carinthian

Do you have timings for when you anticipate for number 2

Is this the sort of set up you are looking for :blink:

Here

Also here for AO...looking good HoustonHere

BFTP

Thanks BFTP,

The Arctic cold pool is going to expand. To engage the Northerly Jet and push the Arctic front towards us we need the cold pool in the right place, which is just where it is now and for a strong developing high amplitude Mid -Atlantic in place, or for N. Atlantic jet to push zonally well to the south of the British Isles. Timing is the million dollar question, but most of the ingredients are in place .

C

[Guest Viking141]

Hi AM,

It is still growing and going to become quite potent. Its not going to be pushed away !

C

Excellent post C and good news for the coming winter.

:blink:

[blitzen]

Hello Carinthian, Not able to contribute much because of lack of understanding of the technicalities but I always look forward with interest to your posts. Everything appears to be falling into place nicely, lets hope it continues to do so. Are you more confident with the set-up this year compared to last?

Blitzen.

[carinthian]

Hello Carinthian, Not able to contribute much because of lack of understanding of the technicalities but I always look forward with interest to your posts. Everything appears to be falling into place nicely, lets hope it continues to do so. Are you more confident with the set-up this year compared to last?

Blitzen.

Hello Blitzen. I notice from your hobblies your interest in weather. There are some great threads on netweather.tv Many of the posts from good folk like yourself who are wanting to learn more, so don't be put off from making a contribution. Yes, I am more confident with this years "cooling " in the Arctic, particularly from the Greenland Basin to the North Barent and into Central Siberia.

Speak to you again.

C

[parmenides3]

Will comment on the Western Arctic shortly, meanwhile, here's a link to the SSTs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsdivka.html

and this one show the current temperatures at ground level:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

If you connect to the Cryosphere Today site, you'll see the snow cover as well as the sea ice:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Enjoy the sites.

:)P

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian

Thanks very much for all the lastest :blink:

Your reports tie in very much with the thoughts GP continually provides through his interpretation of the teleconnectic patterns and how the models may behave accordingly. It is interesting to have these separate thoughts from different angles but have them tie in well together - so far the jigsaw is coming together increasingly well. And for those of us fully anticipating cold this winter - this is all very encouraging so far.

I am not worried by the continuing warm temps down here with southerly winds and TC or TM airsteams - the current pattern IMO is playing nicely into our hands for winter, the cold pooling to the north is not being disturbed, and is being allowed to entrench with an increasingly unsustainable thermal gradient building up as time goes by - and the dam should have to break down the line . So I can live with this for a while yet certainly.

Lets hope this good progress is maintained

Tamara

hi Tamara,

Well thought out. I think you have grasped that the cold pool has not been disturbed from this position. That is important as far as we are concerned.

C

[BrickFielder]

Detailed SST's

Partial SST archive

CDC SST's

IRI SST Forecasts

The Gulf Stream

Artic Sea Ice coverage

There are also some good charts in the data center (see at the top of the page).

Unseasonal warmth in China is showing up as lack of ice to the north of china which tends to confirm your idea that the cold is building on our side of the artic.

[parmenides3]

Brickfielder's last post would seem to be borne out by the latest forecasts from Canada and Alaska. This is the text from The CIS, Western area:

FECN09 CWIS 171800

THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR WESTERN ARCTIC WATERS FROM MID- OCTOBER TO MID-

NOVEMBER ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 17 OCTOBER 2006.

Mean air temperatures were above normal over most locations except

near normal over Coronation and eastern Amundsen Gulfs. Freeze-up is

expected to be 1 to 2 weeks later than normal except near normal from

western Queen Maud Gulf to eastern Amundsen Gulf.

Forecast ice conditions for October 17th to October 31st.

A series of low pressure systems will develop over the Bering Sea

during the last two weeks of October. This will bring periods of

moderate to strong southeasterly winds over the Beaufort Sea during the

second half of October and spread to the rest of the Western Arctic

during the last week of October. Mean air temperatures will be above

normal during the period. Freeze-up which is already under way in the

Beaufort Sea and along parts of the Northwest Passage will progress at a

slow pace during the last two weeks of October. Meanwhile, the main pack

of old ice in the Beaufort Sea will remain well offshore. With moderate

to strong southeasterly winds developing over the Beaufort Sea, areas of

open drift to close pack new with some grey ice will prevail across the

area. The area of new and grey ice which formed in Dease Strait and

western Queen Maud Gulf will spread to eastern Amundsen Gulf and the

rest of Queen Maud Gulf during the third week of October. At that time,

new with some grey ice will develop from Victoria Strait to southern

Peel Sound. Patches of very open drift multi-year ice will be embedded

in the ice pack over central Victoria Strait and the extreme western

portion of Larsen Sound. The ice which is forming over the Western

Arctic will thicken to the grey ice stage by the end of October. Open

water conditions will persist over the rest of Amundsen Gulf except for

areas of new with some grey ice forming in shallow bays and inlets.

Forecast ice conditions for November 1st to mid-November.

Mean air temperatures will remain above normal over the whole

Western Arctic during the first half of November. New with some grey ice

will form over most of the western Amundsen Gulf during the first week

of November, while grey with some greywhite ice will dominate over the

Beaufort Sea and over the rest of the Northwest Passage. The ice will

continue to thicken for the rest of the period to become mostly

greywhite with some thin first year ice over most areas except for an

area of grey and greywhite ice over western Amundsen Gulf. Patches of

very open drift multi-year ice will be embedded in the ice pack over

central Victoria Strait and the extreme western portion of Larsen Sound.

The report for the Eastern Canadian Arctic reads very much the same: above average seasonal temperatures, slow development of grey ice, slow southerly progress through the sounds of ice edge.

Alaska's latest 5 day report gives a Low over the Bering Sea, another low over the Chuckchi, and a high 'embedded' North of Alaska. The flow of ice is generally Easterly, but strong winds are preventing shorefast ice from developing. By Saturday, the main pack edge should be 25-45 Nm North of Barrow.

The overall picture seems to be one of two main 'stories'; Grennland and Eastward (Carinthian's excellent summary), and The far Eastern end of The eastern Siberian and Chuckchi seas, all the way round.

One question (to which I don't know the answer) is how much influence we can expect from the West/ North-West, rather than the North/North East; on this may well depend our hopes or fears of a cold Winter. My suspicion is that this will depend, to some extent, on what patterns form 'below' the Greenland High, both in Labrador/Newfoundland, and around Iceland.

:)P

[carinthian]

Brickfielder's last post would seem to be borne out by the latest forecasts from Canada and Alaska. This is the text from The CIS, Western area:

The report for the Eastern Canadian Arctic reads very much the same: above average seasonal temperatures, slow development of grey ice, slow southerly progress through the sounds of ice edge.

Alaska's latest 5 day report gives a Low over the Bering Sea, another low over the Chuckchi, and a high 'embedded' North of Alaska. The flow of ice is generally Easterly, but strong winds are preventing shorefast ice from developing. By Saturday, the main pack edge should be 25-45 Nm North of Barrow.

The overall picture seems to be one of two main 'stories'; Grennland and Eastward (Carinthian's excellent summary), and The far Eastern end of The eastern Siberian and Chuckchi seas, all the way round.

One question (to which I don't know the answer) is how much influence we can expect from the West/ North-West, rather than the North/North East; on this may well depend our hopes or fears of a cold Winter. My suspicion is that this will depend, to some extent, on what patterns form 'below' the Greenland High, both in Labrador/Newfoundland, and around Iceland.

:)P

Thanks for that report from our (North American correspondant) Good question you ask in the last paragraph. I am going to take time out and think about that. A re-position of the Polar Vortex and its associated deep trough will also have a profound effect?

C

[carinthian]

Greeting all,

The latest Arctic Report as I see it. Well here goes.

A large section of open water still remains in the Beaufort Sea as far as the Amundsen Gulf, however the Franklin District is now mainly ice locked. I would say sea ice off the Canadian/ Alaskan Rim is a fair bit below what we would normally expect. ( I think Pm3 and Dawlish are going to update the latest prospects for polar ice development in this region ).

Nearer to home the Greenland Sea ice drift continues to push into the Denmark Strait with sightings now being reported at 68N. Solid concentration above Scoresby Sound with reports of fast ice furtrher north.

Sea ice in the North Barent remains more advanced than this time last year. In the Kara Sea the big out flowing river estuaries of the Ob and Yenisey are now ice locked,but a good portion of the sea remains open as far out to Novaya Zemlya. Further east the Laptev Sea is now freezing over quickly ( much more than last year as the Central Siberian freeze is now established with added good covering of deep snowfall )

Three good signs to look out for :

1. Strong negative AO phase.( soon to become established)

2.Retention of a strong Greenland high, possibly with a link to a Mid - Atlantic high amplitude ridge.

3. Retention of the North Barent cold pool. ( established for some time now)

If this cold pool can push into the Norwegian Sea and the non - toppling high amplitude ridge forms we will be in for a classical Arctic winter, even in our latitudes. I am now more optomistic !

Carinthian

Further to the above report ,todays forecast of sea ice drift indicates by the 25th October that the Laptev Sea should be 80% ice covered with multi-year ice and fast forming young ice. An easterly drift in the Kara Sea will push the ice closer to Novaya Zemlya. The same drift will allow ice to make further landfall onto the eastern coast of Svalbard out into the Barent. The warmer N. Atlantic Ocean drift protecting the west coast of the archipelago in the Greenland Sea. However, the biggest advance of polar ice will be into the Denmark Strait this being pushed on by a persistant NEly and fast ice further north into the Basin. East Siberian Sea shows little advance this coming week as does the stretch that links the Beaufort and the Bering, although a switch to more Northerly drift should push the polar ice edge a bit closer to the MacKenzie Delta. The Amundsen Gulf and Barrow Point still remain free of ice.

Carith

[ScandiHigh]

The SSTs to the West of Svalbard is around 4 C and preventning the sea ice to penetrate further south:

http://met.no/images/image_000128_1161266490.png

Even along the north coast SSTs are way above freezing. Seems like we need more of those cold northerlies to cool down the barent ocean.

To the east, however, SSTs are much more favourable for sea ice formation (around 0 and in some places less than 0 C).

[Mr Maunder]

Google Earth with Damocles overlays for Ice and SSTs.

Although experimental, this gives quite a good feel for the next areas where the ice may advance - and the areas where the SSTs are just too high at present.

I'm quite content with the way things are going so far - for the reasons Carinth has already outlined. But its still early days.

MM

[parmenides3]

The SSTs to the West of Svalbard is around 4 C and preventning the sea ice to penetrate further south:

http://met.no/images/image_000128_1161266490.png

Even along the north coast SSTs are way above freezing. Seems like we need more of those cold northerlies to cool down the barent ocean.

To the east, however, SSTs are much more favourable for sea ice formation (around 0 and in some places less than 0 C).

We still need the SSTs to drop a little, to -2, before freezing, rather than drifting, fills in the gaps. Generally, surface air temperatures need to be around -15C for the ice to take hold, and atmospheric condition need to allow for the right amount of vertical mixing.

One extra thought about Carinthian's last post; last Winter a lot of multi-season pack ice was flushed out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait due to extended North Easterlies. I'm not sure whether this happened early or late in the season, but the current synoptics are worth looking at for this possibility as well.

:)P

[Dawlish]

Wow! Things falling into place nicely! Looking good! Let's hope the progress is maintained! Cold pool still in position! Agrees with GP's teleconnections!

All sounds terrific. However, I really think the ones who are trying to use ice build up at the pole as a natural connection to the severity of our winters need to ask themselves 4 really fundamental questions.

1. Does the amount of ice to the north of us have any direct influence on our winter weather?

2. What studies have proved a connection?

3.If there is a connection between polar ice and Northern hemisphere weather (which there may be), to what extent does that connection apply to the UK?

4 If there is a connection, why can't major forecasting agencies use that connection and predict the UK weather, based on ice build-up, with any reasonable degree of accuracy?

If there is no, or little, real connection, then why are you celebrating ice build-up in particular areas? Summer Ice extent in the Arctic is on a recognised downward trend and that has led to the fact that, presently, there is less, overall, than there was at the same time last year.

To simply accept that the chances of a colder UK winter are improved by slightly more ice in the Barents Sea, than there was last year, seems an awfully thin straw at which to clutch guys.

Paul

Edited October 20, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Google Earth with Damocles overlays for Ice and SSTs.

Although experimental, this gives quite a good feel for the next areas where the ice may advance - and the areas where the SSTs are just too high at present.

I'm quite content with the way things are going so far - for the reasons Carinth has already outlined. But its still early days.

MM

Hello Mr Maunder,

Not seen this site before. Good clarity. Do you have a link so I can store in my favourite list.

Thanks again

C

[Dawlish]

Hello Mr Maunder,

Not seen this site before. Good clarity. Do you have a link so I can store in my favourite list.

Thanks again

C

Here's the link C. Well worth reading Damocles' analysis on the declining extent if Arctic ice, their clear ideas on the connection of melting ice to Global Warming, their observations on increasing Arctic temperatures and their predictions for the future. I'm sure you'll find it interesting.

http://www.damocles-eu.org/about_arctic.shtml

Paul

[parmenides3]

Hello Mr Maunder,

Not seen this site before. Good clarity. Do you have a link so I can store in my favourite list.

Thanks again

C

Assuming you have Google Earth, C. , go here: http://www.seaice.dk/damocles/Google.html

and you can download all the data. It is updated every three days or so.

:)P

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Here's the link C. Well worth reading Damocles' analysis on the declining extent if Arctic ice, their clear ideas on the connection of melting ice to Global Warming, their observations on increasing Arctic temperatures and their predictions for the future. I'm sure you'll find it interesting.

http://www.damocles-eu.org/about_arctic.shtml

Paul

It doesn't explain why the ice is less and melting more than when the arctic was 1-2C anomalously warmer in the 30s and 40s than now. Can't see it being GW, must be another reason.

BFTP

Edited October 20, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[parmenides3]

It doesn't explain why the ice is less and melting more than when the arctic was 1-2C anomalously warmer in the 30s and 40s than now. Can't see it being GW, must be another reason.

BFTP

Blast, no matter what happened in the '30s & '40s, nobody has found any explanation other than GW for the current trend in sea-ice decline. (They have looked...) Added to that, the levels of decline are accurately modelled and represented in the GCMs. Yes, climate 'noise' is especially high for Polar regions, and there is not enough reliable data to be certain, absolutely, but in the absence of any other known cause, and taken in tandem with the climate signals from the temperate zones which also indicate GW, it is hard to see how this wouldn't be the result of GW.

:)P

[carinthian]

Assuming you have Google Earth, C. , go here: http://www.seaice.dk/damocles/Google.html

and you can download all the data. It is updated every three days or so.

:)P

Thanks Pm3. Now on my favourite list.

C

[carinthian]

The permanently frozen seas behave more or less as continental areas, and have a larger though not extreme range, for sea ice cannot become very cold since the temperature of the water below is about -2C and ice is a good conductor of heat. The winter extent of polar ice more or less the same ,apart from the area affected by the influence of the N. Atlantic drift (ie) Norwegian Sea, Barent Sea/ White Sea and Outer Basin of the Greenland Sea. All the cold winters I have known on our shores have followed a early cold pool in these "open areas " If it remains cold enough, sea ice will form and will make a Northerly component air flow much more potent. I cannot confirm this was the case in the cold periods of the 16th and 17th centuries but in more recent times a early cold mass formation in the areas mentioned resulted in severe cold winters in the British Isles (ie) 1963,1969,1979 and 1981.

1969 was the peak for southerly extent of ice nearest to the British Isles.

[Dawlish]

Dawlish

Your first sentence is rather laced with sarcasm and there is obvious background irritation once again in your post - but the 'celebration' as you call it further down your post is cautiously optimistic, in very early and tentative stages, but certainly not the sort of 'pie in the sky' you steadfastly maintain.

It is perfectly reasonable to point out that at this stage of proceedings ice build-up and cold pooling is proceeding with better progress this side of the arctic than the other. In terms of current teleconnectic and SSTA plotting, the indications are cautiously favourable, at this stage anyway, for continued progress in terms of ice growth and cold pooling in areas that may benefit (for those that desire so anyway) the UK in terms of potential cold spells this winter. I don't think any such reports that I and others are welcoming from the likes of Carinthian etc are unjustifiable. Emerging (and currently continuing) possibilities of negative NAO to be a dominant feature of this winter, plus a more favourable southerly jet pattern - will be important in the ability to 'cash in' on any stack up of the cold to the north and east in the first instance, and then produce the likely synoptics to advect those cold pools towards the British Isles.

So in that sense it does matter to cold weather wishers that ice and cold pools can build up in areas that are 'important' to the British Isles and any early signs that this is happening are bound to be welcomed (whilst at the same time stressing that they have to be maintained). We saw only last winter that record cold pooling occured over Russia - irrespective of the long term ice trends you continually mention as obstacles to cold. So straw clutching it is not.

A good measure and validation of this 'progress' of course will be to see whether the METO continue their thoughts started last month towards a colder outlook for the coming winter in their November report due very shortly.

So it is in these terms that phrases like 'good progress so far' 'things falling into place nicely' etc are being made. For the moment at least they remain. Nothing irrational about that - reflects a measured enough analysis of possibilities down the line. No-one is saying that anything is definitely going to happen but perhaps those who enjoy cold prospects are merely voicing and expressing their enthusiasm for recent developments. Cautiously and collectively.

If folk were pronouncing an imminent ice-age then your 'non-endearments' may have better foundation.

But thay are not. Expressions of enthusiasm will hopefully continue, not to try and exacerabate your obvious scorn and irritation at winter cold wishers - but simply and innocently because there is no reason for it to be misplaced - at least at this stage.

We will have to see for how long.

But you will need to be aware that you may have to put up with things in this respect

Tamara

Is there any chance of at least trying to answer any of the questions I've posed snowp? Or has the present state of Arctic ice got very little relevance whatsoever for out winter weather......apart from providing some with a reason to hope? Surely someone could have a good try? What is the proven link between Arctic ice build up and the winter weather in the UK? If there isn't a real link, why are people celebrating and providing running commentary as if it is of great import?

I think you mistake my mild amusement at yours and others' hoping for cold as irritation, snowp. I can't compete with you on sarcasm, I admit defeat :lol: , but I can assure you I have no need to put an angry smily anywhere in my posts!

Edited October 20, 2006 by Dawlish