Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[parmenides3]

Thanks for that excellent explanation, Steve. I for one appreciate a clear but detailed summary of how it all works.

Looking forward to the 'snap'.

:)P

[D KARLSON]

Must agree there steve the weather is storing up some cold snaps despite the current very mild weather i suppose its when the snap will occur,probably november will be the trigger and dont forget this year was the first time for many months that we actually registered some below average months so it seems some changes are afoot lets hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Thundersquall]

The very mild weather will hang-on just long enough for the NAO to swing round to positive I expect.

Edited October 21, 2006 by Thundersquall

[carinthian]

For the benefit of a few that have asked- Im sure carinthian had explained somewhere along the lines-

The Snow & ice extent is covered by the term 'Cryosphere' ( Hence the name ofthe site Cryosphere today)-

The cryosphere 'region' is an area that is condusive to ccoling- As we already know Snow & Ice have a large Albedo compared with open water or 'green' snowless areas-

Having a wider area of ice & Snow cover suspends higher amounts pf incoming solar radiation from being absorbed -Granted, above 67N latitude there is darkness for much of the cold season due to the tilting away from the ecliptic, which falls beneath the southern horizon. So we ask, “what difference would it make then”.. Well, there is a background OLR even the polar-regions that is calculated to have a less than negligible effect on the lower troposphere. Thus, in years of advancing snow cover at high latitudes, these 2 factors feed back in a process of heat sink. The end result is the production of cold air masses and has been statistically correlated to increased frequencies of the negative Arctic Oscillation phase states, when the NH snow pack is more abundant. For more than this, a good website the covers all this in better refinement is:

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/questions/index.html

Obviously 'seasonally' the Cryospheric region is variable- so this is why we look towards the change in seasons ( latter Sept, Oct & Nov) to see the build up of the snowpack & Ice extent across the various regions extrapolated in the data-

You could say simply- The 'overall ' anomaly of cryosphere against the norm observed the more chance there is of negative Artic Oscillation setting up-

This can then be subtended to the NAO that has a statistical linear correlation to the AO of +0.7 meaning that they are highly correlated.

There will be sceptics out there that refuse to buy into the cryosphere theory but there is SUBSTANTIAL data to suggest that this summation is pretty on the mark-

So as we head into Oct which out of the year sees the biggest positive increase in snowcover across the month we look to trends in snowpack development & potential winter feedback loops as a result of the data analysis-

here is the current snow data V last year as of Friday the 20th Oct-

2005-

2006-

As can see we are in a considerably better place than last year-

Now this has already set up a Negative Artic oscillation feedback which should hopefully become self perpetuating- Possibly aided by Artic cloud cover & warmer that ave stratospheric temps-

Which does correlate nice with the NAO-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...index_mrf.shtml

What has to be said at this point is the end result of this is Strong & more 'violent' polar surges South- this has already been observed Stateside where record lows/minima have been broken across the board infact its still happening in terms of anomaly V norm-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.png

Look at the scale- the departures are some -12/-15 below the ave-

What must be said here is how on earth are we so mild when the AO is trending negative-

One main thing is Stopping the cold coming this way and thats the feedback loops from the Summer SSTA's & Summer heat HASNT been Shifted, the super strong Central Europe heat ridge is hanging on for dear life- but things WILL change- remember its NOT IF ITS WHEN-

Obviously I love the cold but this current sustained warmth is a distraction but its only a minor distraction - we have 5 weeks to winter proper & I will eat my hat if the feedback change hasnt happened by then-

The change will come & it will arrive with a bang....

S

Hi Steve,

Nicely explained. Your so good with the graphics. I feel very positive now about the cold scenario to intensify and as you say it will feed our way with quite an impact when it arrives.

C

[SMU]

Hi Steve,

Nicely explained. Your so good with the graphics. I feel very positive now about the cold scenario to intensify and as you say it will feed our way with quite an impact when it arrives.

C

Yes Carinths......

Its will be focussing in towards Devon......

Cheers all

S

[carinthian]

Yes Carinths......

Its will be focussing in towards Devon......

Cheers all

S

Now then Steve, don't get him going. He has been very quiet today ! Must be in the Smugglers. Anyway I am off for a pint at the Ye Olde Parkgate Inn where I have informed the landlord to stock up well with logs for the winter ahead !

Cheers

C

[Dawlish]

hI tAMARA,

Great response. I am now getting fed up of the "mocking of this thread " by Dawlish. I report as I see it and have no aspirations to predict OR TO ESTABLISH MAKE PROOF OF the final outcome. I back by instinct to the hilt.

Thanks for the support gal.

Ps. He could start his own alternative Arctic Thread !

C

Or I could comment on what is happening! I've no wish to mock and that really isn't my intention. The 4 questions that I asked are perfectly reasonable and very difficult to answer. What actual effect does Arctic Sea ice extent have on our climate and has anyone actually proved a link, through their research? The link looks so obvious; if it is cold to the North of us and ice is increasing, it should increase the chances of it being colder here.....but does it really?

Just got to Steve's reply. Thanks for the detail. The NSDIC site is really very cagey on the actual link between ice cover and weather in particular locations. There is a real link, as you say, between, incursions of Arctic cold and our weather. That's really very straightforward, but the statistical relationship between ice cover and weather, that you say "The end result is the production of cold air masses and has been statistically correlated to increased frequencies of the negative Arctic Oscillation phase states" is not statistically proven as far as I can research.

I've been at this for 15 mins and I cannot find the correlation. Maybe I'm not looking in the right place and maybe you can help, but I can't find any statistical correlation between ice cover and incursions of Arctic Cold to our region. Anyone else in the AHS help?

The build up of Arctic ice; the winter extent; the timing of the spring melt and especially the falling extent of summer Arctic Ice has been an interest of mine well before netweather. Whether the fluctuations in this ice cover have a direct result on our weather is not clear at all. If there was, surely some agency would be issuing weather forecasts based on ice build-up in particular areas? They aren't and that says an awful lot about the relationship to me.

Paul

Edited October 21, 2006 by Dawlish

[blitzen]

So, my comment the other day that ' things were coming together nicely' wasn't so far off the mark then! Strange how it was picked out and included along with other hopeful comments. Not bad for a 'less sensible' post.

[parmenides3]

Or I could comment on what is happening! I've no wish to mock and that really isn't my intention. The 4 questions that I asked are perfectly reasonable and very difficult to answer. What actual effect does Arctic Sea ice extent have on our climate and has anyone actually proved a link, through their research? The link looks so obvious; if it is cold to the North of us and ice is increasing, it should increase the chances of it being colder here.....but does it really?

Just got to Steve's reply. Thanks for the detail. The NSDIC site is really very cagey on the actual link between ice cover and weather in particular locations. There is a real link, as you say, between, incursions of Arctic cold and our weather. That's really very straightforward, but the statistical relationship between ice cover and weather, that you say "The end result is the production of cold air masses and has been statistically correlated to increased frequencies of the negative Arctic Oscillation phase states" is not statistically proven as far as I can research.

I've been at this for 15 mins and I cannot find the correlation. Maybe I'm not looking in the right place and maybe you can help, but I can't find any statistical correlation between ice cover and incursions of Arctic Cold to our region. Anyone else in the AHS help?

The build up of Arctic ice; the winter extent; the timing of the spring melt and especially the falling extent of summer Arctic Ice has been an interest of mine well before netweather. Whether the fluctuations in this ice cover have a direct result on our weather is not clear at all. If there was, surely some agency would be issuing weather forecasts based on ice build-up in particular areas? They aren't and that says an awful lot about the relationship to me.

Paul

I did spend some time looking for relevant material, but it seems either well hidden, or too obvious for anyone to bother putting on the internet. But, AHS that I am, I'll keep looking, Paul. The best I can suggest relates to the link I posted on the GW thread to Stephen Schneider's website, Climate Impacts. He points out, in the thread on probabilities, climatology and forecasting, that the 'normal' climate conditions for a season or place set the scene for the likelihood of any particluar weather event occuring, but that it is the synoptics at the time and place which finally determine the weather, hence the fairly regular occurence of 'unexpected' weather events; in climate terms, it shouldn't snow in Illinois in October, but it is, because of the specific synoptic set-up which occured (coming out of the Arctic Circle) last week. The case must be the same for the link between sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic (& SSTs) and the weather in the UK; such a situation provides the base upon which the likelihood of a 'cold' synoptic set-up rises (it is climatologically more probable), but it will be the specific synoptics which will detrmine the actual weather we get (this week has been a good example; a better chance of a cold snap, but the synoptics didn't happen - too much European influence, this time).

I find myself hoping that this makes some kind of sense, which means it's time to stop.

:)P

Edit: blitzen; please continue posting - all input, hopeful or questioning, is welcomed.

Edited October 21, 2006 by parmenides3

[Optimus Prime]

Arctic ice still relentlessly below normal, showing no signs of increasing. It should really be on an upward trend from here....

[parmenides3]

I think you're misreading the graph, OP: the sea ice level has jumped from ~5.5 M Km2 to ~7 M Km2 since the start of October. The anomaly, however, still show as below the 1971-2000 average.

:)P

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think you're misreading the graph, OP: the sea ice level has jumped from ~5.5 M Km2 to ~7 M Km2 since the start of October. The anomaly, however, still show as below the 1971-2000 average.

:)P

Correct P.

OP as you pointed out I have a cold bias [sometimes] on the other thread a few minutes ago it seems [sometimes] you have a warm bias

BFTP

[parmenides3]

Correct P.

OP as you pointed out I have a cold bias [sometimes] on the other thread a few minutes ago it seems [sometimes] you have a warm bias

BFTP

Labels, labels. Does it matter, Blast, what our personal inclinations are? (Sorry if that's a bit blunt). Carinthian does a great job of summarising what is actually happening with the Arctic sea-ice; it's fairly clear that what we do with that information in terms of our own hopes or opinions is often quite subjective, whether it is climate or weather which is our particular interest. What do you make of the current sea-ice conditions?

:)P

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Labels, labels. Does it matter, Blast, what our personal inclinations are? (Sorry if that's a bit blunt). Carinthian does a great job of summarising what is actually happening with the Arctic sea-ice; it's fairly clear that what we do with that information in terms of our own hopes or opinions is often quite subjective, whether it is climate or weather which is our particular interest. What do you make of the current sea-ice conditions?

:)P

Too blunt P it was said in fun as he called it on another thread. Still low against the mean of course but certainly oscillations at work here. I read keenly this thread and have noted Carinthians thoughts.....the cold seems to go on and on up in the Barents location and is projected to remain. It may not affect our winter but on the balance of things better its there than not for chances of cold hitting the UK. Too early for any speculation on my part but ceratinly an area I will follow keenly

BFTP

[Dawlish]

Carinthian does a great job of summarising what is actually happening with the Arctic sea-ice; :)P

Absolutely right. Always said it. C may not like what I say about his and others' interpretations of the implications of build-up of Arctic Sea ice, for our weather, as I disagree with some of the non-sequitors in there, or the ways in which it is measured, as I've tried to show that satellites and not ground observations are by far the most useful source of monitoring, but he does a great job of keeping us up to date and a sincere TY to him for it. I wouldn't be half as interested, or knowledgeable about the subject if it wasn't for C. If it wasn't for C's enthusiasm for the subject, I wouldn't have been spurred to research and I wouldn't be in as strong a position to argue with him!

You article hound, you. PM3! Keep looking! I've tried further too, but I've given up. I don't think it is out there, as I don't think there is a statistically proven connection between the build-up of Arctic Sea ice and the outcome for our winter weather. I think it is up to those that believe the connection is clear to show the clarity.

Paul

Edited October 22, 2006 by Dawlish

[parmenides3]

Too blunt P it was said in fun as he called it on another thread. Still low against the mean of course but certainly oscillations at work here. I read keenly this thread and have noted Carinthians thoughts.....the cold seems to go on and on up in the Barents location and is projected to remain. It may not affect our winter but on the balance of things better its there than not for chances of cold hitting the UK. Too early for any speculation on my part but ceratinly an area I will follow keenly

BFTP

Fair do's. Looking more closely at Steve Murr's two graphics, what hits me, apart from the slight shift of the sea-ice postioning, is the much broader extent of snow into the North-East of Canada, and also From Scandinavia Eastwards. Many Norwegian coastal webcams are now showing snowfall, likewise some of the Siberian ones. :)P

[Anti-Mild]

We saw late November how relatively potent that northerly was after another interminably warm autumn. But also, with an improved cryospheric position this year on last - just think what even better potential may lie in the weeks to come?

Tamara

I have mentioned previously that this build up to Winter feels more like an 80's Winter than anything else and maybe, in terms of Northerlys this coming season, the 80's effect will be in evidence again. It always seemed to be the case that when we got a Northerly wind in the Winter months back in my youth that it brought snow whereas in recent years that was not always the case.

However, due to the better situation to our North it may be that a North wind this year will result in some white stuff, maybe even of a frontal nature.

[frozen_north]

Yes for me I dont mind if the cold keeps building up North till December or january. Because if it does come our way its going to be very cold.

[J10]

Looking at the Cryosphere site, interesting graphs to behold on all the areas, but the Canadian Archipelago results have surprised me for a while, ice amounts in many areas tend to reach its maximum extent possible, then obviously plateau, or in the case open ice areas such as Greenland peak, but why does the Canadian Archipelago plateau below average.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.12.jpg

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fair do's. Looking more closely at Steve Murr's two graphics, what hits me, apart from the slight shift of the sea-ice postioning, is the much broader extent of snow into the North-East of Canada, and also From Scandinavia Eastwards. Many Norwegian coastal webcams are now showing snowfall, likewise some of the Siberian ones. :)P

P

Yes it is the snow extent is pretty stark. Big improvement from last year but I don't know what the norm is. I remember reading that an area of 2 million sq km in western Siberia had received 'record' snowfall...I'll try to find it...maybe there is a knock on from that.

BFTP

[Mr Maunder]

For me this is a very good illustration to show why the current (seemingly endless) warmth may not matter and why I have repeated the phrase 'autumn pain and winter gain' recently at intervals.

I think that the longer the current cycle holds - the bigger the change when the dam breaks and the winter feedback, as Steve mentions, kicks in.

We saw late November last year how relatively potent that northerly was after another interminably warm autumn. But also, with an improved cryospheric position this year on last - just think what even better potential may lie in the weeks to come?

Tamara

Tamara,

What you have said sums it up perfectly for me. As far as I am concerned the longer we go without the dam breaking the better the end result could be (but no promises!).

It is encouraging to see the ice at a higher level than 2005 and the same can also be said about the snowpack.

Is it possible that higher levels of summer melt can actually assist a higher level of early snowfall through the "lake effect" - which in turn helps the cold pooling? I'd be interested in anyone's views on this.

MM

[parmenides3]

To endorse a much welcomed technical summary fom Steve (which in itself rubber stamps Carinthians work) -

The current snow data, and recent USA cold is a good illustratration to show why it is has not mattered that we have been/are stuck with this excessively mild set-up. Without the sort of synoptics we experienced pre February 2005 - with sub tropical air being pumped into these far northern regions it is clear that a colder cryospheric cycle may have been able to start, although it is early days, and subject to the post Feb 05 pattern change continuing.

As long as the PF does not traverse the 'old' lines' and disrupt the cold pool (and hence the progress and consolidation of the arctic snow cover extent which is admittedly from a low baseline) then our own chances for cold are not jeopardised once more and likelihood of winter cold spells increases - and so does their potential potency too. The cycle (if maintained thus) should mean that -AO and hence -NAO cycles might be able to re-assert themselves with all the synoptics and the 'benefits' they bring.

For me this is a very good illustration to show why the current (seemingly endless) warmth may not matter and why I have repeated the phrase 'autumn pain and winter gain' recently at intervals.

I think that the longer the current cycle holds - the bigger the change when the dam breaks and the winter feedback, as Steve mentions, kicks in.

We saw late November last year how relatively potent that northerly was after another interminably warm autumn. But also, with an improved cryospheric position this year on last - just think what even better potential may lie in the weeks to come?

Tamara

I'm being dense, Tamara, sorry, but I don't quite get it. The recent cold in the USA/Canada was unusual in timing, but an example of a regular and well-understood synoptic pattern, which normally occurs later in the year. Do we have a similar, regular synoptic pattern as a parallel for the UK? If we do, how commonplace is it?

Personally, I'll be keeping a close eye on the SSTs and the anomalies to our North, especially around the Norwegian coast, to get a sense of what might be coming.

:)P

[ukmoose]

To endorse a much welcomed technical summary fom Steve (which in itself rubber stamps Carinthians work) -

For me this is a very good illustration to show why the current (seemingly endless) warmth may not matter and why I have repeated the phrase 'autumn pain and winter gain' recently at intervals.

I think that the longer the current cycle holds - the bigger the change when the dam breaks and the winter feedback, as Steve mentions, kicks in.

We saw late November last year how relatively potent that northerly was after another interminably warm autumn. But also, with an improved cryospheric position this year on last - just think what even better potential may lie in the weeks to come?

Tamara

It will matter I'm afraid Tamara - for the reaons I have mentioned before. The seas around us will be storing all of this very late warmth and will not even yet beginning their very slow cool down. The latent heat provided will warm any cold air (from whatever source) advancing upon us. It is, in my opinion (even if I am out on my own) a major contributory factor to our mild winters.

Moose

[Dawlish]

It will matter I'm afraid Tamara - for the reaons I have mentioned before. The seas around us will be storing all of this very late warmth and will not even yet beginning their very slow cool down. The latent heat provided will warm any cold air (from whatever source) advancing upon us. It is, in my opinion (even if I am out on my own) a major contributory factor to our mild winters.

Moose

Don't worry, you are not out on your own, Moose. I think most of the Climate community would agree with you.

Paul

[parmenides3]

Don't you just love the Met? I'm sure many people will already know about this, but it gives a decent summary of what to expect. The concentration is on air masses rather than ice levels, but there is a good explanation of the importance of the SSTs. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/unde...ritain_01.shtml

(Don't miss out parts 2 & 3 as well).

The discussion refers to some recent historical examples of cold snaps & snowfall, so it could be useful for someone to look at the ice conditions for those years and compare them to the current situation.

That's the best I can do so far as far as the Arctic influence on us is concerned, but I'm still looking.

:)P