Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[parmenides3]

More of the same Carinth, please. One of may favourite threads this with the info and visual maps/pictures on tap. Cheers guys

BFTP

You'll like this then, Blast. Wetterzentrale GFS N-Hem, 00z, T+150: though there's a steady 'cooler' pattern generally on the runs past Friday, including substantial drop in temp. in both Siberia and the USA (NOAA already have warnings out):

:)P

Image won't download, so go to: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

Edited October 11, 2006 by parmenides3

[carinthian]

Hello,

Recent formation of the Beaufort High has allowed a colder air mass take over the region. Strong Easterly winds along the Rim landmass will stop any advance of the main polar edge for the time being, but minimum ice levels have now been passed in this region. The fastest rate of ice growth is now in the Greenland Basin and into the Arctic Basin around Northern Greenland as far as Hall Land. Fast ice is pushing southwards with this seasons first drift ice segments into Scoresby Sound by this time next week. A cold upper level trough in the Basin has caused the development of small cyclones to push southwards into Svalbard and produce a strong thermal gradient. It is here that the Arctic Front has become established.

Carinthian

Hello,

Further to last weeks above report, I can confirm reports that sea ice has now pushed as far as the mouth of Scoresby Sound at 70N in the Greenland Sea. Scoresby Sound has huge fjords that branch out westwards to the ice cap, a great source for ice bergs to drift into the Denmark Strait. Must be an amazing place !

C

[parmenides3]

Looks like a nice sort of place: http://www.pbase.com/plbh/image/27613100

:)P

[carinthian]

John and BFTP have said it all

More of the same please Carinthian

:lol:

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Very encouraging start. It is important that early cold combines with the advent of polar ice. The polar vortex seems likely to postion itself back in its normal location near to the magnetic pole, however it has more recently encouraged a much earlier cold pool in the Greenland Basin and the Nortb Barent ( just where we want it ) with the Arctic Front wanting to push further southwards.

C

[parmenides3]

The situation is starting to change on the other side (the 'Western' Arctic), faster than the last reports suggested. Alaska's latest has a run of HPs pushing Easterlies across the open ocean. Now they are suggesting that the ice edge will advance towards Barrow 20-50 miles in the next week (quite a large margin of error there), though most of it will be 'grease ice'. If you look at the Barrow webcam at the right time of day, you can now see 'slicks' just offshore which look like grey ice. Only the Kara, Laptev and Chuckchi arer taking their time; all other areas in the Central Arctic are now showing reformation on the CT graphics, with the Basin & Greenland Seas freezing up most rapidly.

:)P

[carinthian]

Morning, further to the above report:

Just to confirm the cold grip now taking hold in Northeast Greenland , the max recorded temp at the Nord Station yesterday was -21C compared to the normal average of -12.1C. The middle average so far this October is MINUS 19.6C ,which compares favourable with the long term average of-19.7C for period 1961/90 ( the cold decades).

C

The pool of very cold air over Northern Greenland is likely to produce minimum temperatures as low as -30C even on the coastal stations. The upper cold pool will be pushed along with a strengthening polar jet by the end of the week with the Arctic front through Jan Mayen by Monday morning. How potent will this air flow be ? The Jan Mayen soundings later on Monday will give a clue. I am sure JH will produce the findings from these upper air graphics.

C

[Guest Viking141]

Again I'd like to echo some previous posts, this is one of my favourite threads. Keep up the good work.

[carinthian]

Again I'd like to echo some previous posts, this is one of my favourite threads. Keep up the good work.

Thanks Viking 141,

I do notice your DOB as 12/01/63...do remember that date well, on my dads farm waist deep in snowdrifts and of course at the heart of the big freeze down here.

I like your hobbies, lager and whisky, but I stick only with old brewery bitter in the Ye Olde Parkgate Inn or Alpine Lager when I am in Austria in the Stampl Bar.

Cheers

C

[Guest Viking141]

Thanks Viking 141,

I do notice your DOB as 12/01/63...do remember that date well, on my dads farm waist deep in snowdrifts and of course at the heart of the big freeze down here.

Yes, so does my mother! Nearly had me in the ambulance. The ambulance crew had to dig us out of snowdrifts two or three times on the way to hospital!!

[carinthian]

The pool of very cold air over Northern Greenland is likely to produce minimum temperatures as low as -30C even on the coastal stations. The upper cold pool will be pushed along with a strengthening polar jet by the end of the week with the Arctic front through Jan Mayen by Monday morning. How potent will this air flow be ? The Jan Mayen soundings later on Monday will give a clue. I am sure JH will produce the findings from these upper air graphics.

C

Further to the above report, under clear calm conditions the most northerly station Kap Morris or AWS Nord Station seem likely to record the minimum value of around -30C tonight , thats quite amazing for the first half of October !

Minus 39C away from the summit is the Ocober record way back in 1970 recorded at the Nord Station . The record low middle average at Hall Land was recorded in 1990. One of the those records is at risk if the cold spell continues for the rest of this month.

C

[Snowyowl9]

Further to the above report, under clear calm conditions the most northerly station Kap Morris or AWS Nord Station seem likely to record the minimum value of around -30C tonight , thats quite amazing for the first half of October !

Minus 39C away from the summit is the Ocober record way back in 1970 recorded at the Nord Station . The record low middle average at Hall Land was recorded in 1990. One of the those records is at risk if the cold spell continues for the rest of this month.

C

Hi Carinthian great updates.

That is cold!!!!

With the models looking very interesting now with a true greenland high it`s looking possible that that record might go possibly.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

S9

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian great updates.

That is cold!!!!

With the models looking very interesting now with a true greenland high it`s looking possible that that record might go possibly.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

S9

hi S9,

Like a woolly hat and scarf . You might be soon glad of it. Yes, I will be watching those temperatures carefully. Great set up for so early on, more amazingly so after such a prolonged warm period throughout Scandinavia and the British Isles.

C

[Anti-Mild]

hi S9,

Like a woolly hat and scarf . You might be soon glad of it. Yes, I will be watching those temperatures carefully. Great set up for so early on, more amazingly so after such a prolonged warm period throughout Scandinavia and the British Isles.

C

Carinthian,

a lot of people have been throwing around long range forecasts for the coming winter (myself included) but I would be interested, you being an ex-Met man, in any thoughts or theories you may have about the coming season.

Care to oblige us with a brief forecast?

AM

[Optimus Prime]

The record low middle average at Hall Land was recorded in 1990. C

And 1990 of all years!

[Snowyowl9]

hi S9,

Like a woolly hat and scarf . You might be soon glad of it.

C

Yep my woolly hat may be coming out fairly soon looking at the latest GFS run

[carinthian]

Carinthian,

a lot of people have been throwing around long range forecasts for the coming winter (myself included) but I would be interested, you being an ex-Met man, in any thoughts or theories you may have about the coming season.

Care to oblige us with a brief forecast?

AM

hI AM,

There are lots of good thoughts on here including your LRF. In a nut shell the ingedients are there for a stormer ! I will explain my theories in more detail over the coming weeks. I have been called out by the team to join the pub quiz, so speak to you later AM.

C

[parmenides3]

With so much overdose and hype over heat records it is so, so very good to hear the other side of the story!

Tamara

Give it a couple of weeks, and I'm sure we'll be overdosing on the 'new ice age' hype (no, sorry; didn't mean it Daniel...)

:)p

[mezzacyclone]

Give it a couple of weeks, and I'm sure we'll be overdosing on the 'new ice age' hype (no, sorry; didn't mean it Daniel...)

:lol: p

Now now P3, i though we`d posted him off to Vladivostok?

[carinthian]

The pool of very cold air over Northern Greenland is likely to produce minimum temperatures as low as -30C even on the coastal stations. The upper cold pool will be pushed along with a strengthening polar jet by the end of the week with the Arctic front through Jan Mayen by Monday morning. How potent will this air flow be ? The Jan Mayen soundings later on Monday will give a clue. I am sure JH will produce the findings from these upper air graphics.

C

Evening,

Further to the above report ,down to -32C in this location last night, with a record breaking low of -40 C now likely before the end of October.

The steep magnitude of the horizontal temperature gradient across the Arctic Front becomes in evidence on Sunday lying from the Denmark Strait to Svalbard. Expect the polar jet to engage some exceptionally cold air ( for October ) to be pushed southwards towards the British Isles by this time next week.

C

[johnholmes]

re this

The Jan Mayen soundings later on Monday will give a clue. I am sure JH will produce the findings from these upper air graphics.

C

I hope to be able to do that and for Thorshaven then Lerwick as it moves south.

John

just as a surface taster, at 18z Friday 13/10/06

Svaalbard=-2c and Jan Meyen=+6c

John

[carinthian]

re this

The Jan Mayen soundings later on Monday will give a clue. I am sure JH will produce the findings from these upper air graphics.

C

I hope to be able to do that and for Thorshaven then Lerwick as it moves south.

John

just as a surface taster, at 18z Friday 13/10/06

Svaalbard=-2c and Jan Meyen=+6c

John

Hi John,

I think you are going to love it. Look foreward to your findings and analysis.

C

[Guest Viking141]

re this

The Jan Mayen soundings later on Monday will give a clue. I am sure JH will produce the findings from these upper air graphics.

C

I hope to be able to do that and for Thorshaven then Lerwick as it moves south.

John

just as a surface taster, at 18z Friday 13/10/06

Svaalbard=-2c and Jan Meyen=+6c

John

Excellent! Look forward to that John.

[frozen_north]

Carinthian what has caused the sudden drop in Sea ice in the Artic. I thought that Sea ice normally grows at the fastest rate now so how has it had a large drop.

[summer blizzard]

Just a quick report, but according to sattelite observations, there has been a large increase in the amount of pack ice which has develped in the East Siberian and Laptev Sea, charts do not show this yet due to a time lag.

[oldsnowywizard]

Carinthian what has caused the sudden drop in Sea ice in the Artic. I thought that Sea ice normally grows at the fastest rate now so how has it had a large drop.

Reason may be that on cryosphere two of the sea ice areas were missing data?