Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[parmenides3]

It has taken its time, but it looks now that the ice reformation is under way pretty much everywhere in the Arctic Ocean. Even the Canadian sectors are showing slight increases on the way. One question though, C.; when should we expect the outlying areas, the bering, Okhotsk, Hudson Bay and St Lawrence to start showing icing?

:)P

[thunderstrike]

Do we want a strengthening greenland high in october?

[carinthian]

It has taken its time, but it looks now that the ice reformation is under way pretty much everywhere in the Arctic Ocean. Even the Canadian sectors are showing slight increases on the way. One question though, C.; when should we expect the outlying areas, the bering, Okhotsk, Hudson Bay and St Lawrence to start showing icing?

:)P

Hi Pm3,

Amazing satellite picture of the lineation of the Polar ice edge in the Canadian West Arctic. Just looks like waiting in the wings to attack the rim. Easterly wind sheer in operation?

Hudson Bay normal starts freezing over at the latest by Mid- November as do the lower latitude sectors. The powerful forces of airmasses from the Pacific or Siberia dictate Okhotsk Sea ice formation.

Is there a prediction date Canadian/ Alaskan sea ice to make landfall ?

C

[parmenides3]

Hi Pm3,

Amazing satellite picture of the lineation of the Polar ice edge in the Canadian West Arctic. Just looks like waiting in the wings to attack the rim. Easterly wind sheer in operation?

Hudson Bay normal starts freezing over at the latest by Mid- November as do the lower latitude sectors. The powerful forces of airmasses from the Pacific or Siberia dictate Okhotsk Sea ice formation.

Is there a prediction date Canadian/ Alaskan sea ice to make landfall ?

C

Alaska and CIS are both calling a one-two week delay on normal conditions, with air temps slightly above average at the moment, but particularly because sea temps are still well above average. No suggenstion of landfall before the end of the month, but, as we know, things can change very quickly. I'd say not in the next two weeks at the very least.

:)P

[carinthian]

Hello,

Recent formation of the Beaufort High has allowed a colder air mass take over the region. Strong Easterly winds along the Rim landmass will stop any advance of the main polar edge for the time being, but minimum ice levels have now been passed in this region. The fastest rate of ice growth is now in the Greenland Basin and into the Arctic Basin around Northern Greenland as far as Hall Land. Fast ice is pushing southwards with this seasons first drift ice segments into Scoresby Sound by this time next week. A cold upper level trough in the Basin has caused the development of small cyclones to push southwards into Svalbard and produce a strong thermal gradient. It is here that the Arctic Front has become established.

Carinthian

Hi ,

Further to the above report, lower temperatures in the NE of Greenland have now taken a grip. Todays grid reports show a solid concentration of ice in the Greenland Sea of about 120.000 Sq Km. This fast growth is caused by some very cold air mass development up here.The Greenland anticyclone will strengthen as a result of the chilling of the lower layers by the polar cold and there is great deal of evidence to show that their extent is affected from year to year by the extension of the ice pack, the limits of the anticyclone being more or less coincident with the limit of ice.

Carinthian

[parmenides3]

A quick look at the MMAB low-res for Svalbard shows 50% cover in isolated pockets on the far North coast. Annoyingly, there doesn't seem to be a webcam at either of the two Northermost weather stations, so we have to rely on the sat. maps. With temps as they are, how long before the ice appears in force on the Longyearben webcams?

:)P

[carinthian]

A quick look at the MMAB low-res for Svalbard shows 50% cover in isolated pockets on the far North coast. Annoyingly, there doesn't seem to be a webcam at either of the two Northermost weather stations, so we have to rely on the sat. maps. With temps as they are, how long before the ice appears in force on the Longyearben webcams?

:)P

Hello,

With most of Spitzbergen expected to remain in the cold airmass and the forecast for the Arctic Front to push ever further southwards next week, young ice cover should soon form, particularly on the Northern and Eastern coasts of the archipelago.

C

[parmenides3]

Hello,

With most of Spitzbergen expected to remain in the cold airmass and the forecast for the Arctic Front to push ever further southwards next week, young ice cover should soon form, particularly on the Northern and Eastern coasts of the archipelago.

C

I think it's already happening.

You are going to love this; a new paper in the Journal of Climate on 'Atmospheric Frocing on the Barents Sea Winter ice extent': http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?reques...75%2FJCLI3885.1

Enjoy.:)P

Edited October 10, 2006 by parmenides3

[carinthian]

I think it's already happening.

You are going to love this; a new paper in the Journal of Climate on 'Atmospheric Frocing on the Barents Sea Winter ice extent': http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?reques...75%2FJCLI3885.1

Enjoy.:)P

Now them Pm3, you are teasing me. Abstact indeed or in my case withdrawn in thought. In my study days at Reading, I could understand the climatology papers written by the likes of Austin Miller, Mason and other, but this journal has lost me.

Basically, nothing new,depressions during some winters travel far into the Arctic Circle along the gulf of warmth. Depressions pass cheifly to the north of Spitzbergen with the Barent Sea experiences as many westerly as easterly winds. Some years more than others. Last winter was a prime example of this warmth and hence lack of ice in the Barent. The start of this winter appears to be showing the reverse.

Carith

[parmenides3]

Now them Pm3, you are teasing me. Abstact indeed or in my case withdrawn in thought. In my study days at Reading, I could understand the climatology papers written by the likes of Austin Miller, Mason and other, but this journal has lost me.

Basically, nothing new,depressions during some winters travel far into the Arctic Circle along the gulf of warmth. Depressions pass cheifly to the north of Spitzbergen with the Barent Sea experiences as many westerly as easterly winds. Some years more than others. Last winter was a prime example of this warmth and hence lack of ice in the Barent. The start of this winter appears to be showing the reverse.

Carith

I thought you'd like it because it says pretty much what you've been saying on this thread, but more comprehensibly; I'm not sure what the point of the research was, though, as it all sounds, as you say, pretty familiar. Nice references to the teleconnections, though.

:)P

[carinthian]

Hi ,

Further to the above report, lower temperatures in the NE of Greenland have now taken a grip. Todays grid reports show a solid concentration of ice in the Greenland Sea of about 120.000 Sq Km. This fast growth is caused by some very cold air mass development up here.The Greenland anticyclone will strengthen as a result of the chilling of the lower layers by the polar cold and there is great deal of evidence to show that their extent is affected from year to year by the extension of the ice pack, the limits of the anticyclone being more or less coincident with the limit of ice.

Carinthian

Hi again,

Air temp just dropped to -14C in Longyearbven at 2pm this afternoon under clear skies and still conditions. That will be cold enough for the start of young sea ice formation.

C

[parmenides3]

Hi again,

Air temp just dropped to -14C in Longyearbven at 2pm this afternoon under clear skies and still conditions. That will be cold enough for the start of young sea ice formation.

C

I can't quite see it on the NW sea temp chart, but it looks like the water is still a bit too warm to the S; about 0-2C; needs to be -2 for ice, with air temps normally around -15. As you say, though, looking more promising.

:)P

[carinthian]

Check out the "Green Reefer " in Svalbard harbour. Fantastic backgound view. Anyone show the web shot before it disappears ?

C

[parmenides3]

Too late! Unless the green reefer is the name of the boat in Longyearben harbour. :(P

[parmenides3]

This is the best I can do. Ny Alesund. looks lovely.

:)P

[Derbyshire_snow]

Looks like the sea is iceing over aswell. :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is the best I can do. Ny Alesund. looks lovely.

:)P

Looking good Houston!

BFTP

[Mr Maunder]

Yes, things are slowly looking up on the ice cover front - certainly to the east Arctic anyway. I suppose that when there is significant melt to the west the natural current brings the fresher water to the east which may encourage growth there. However, I'm not getting too excited just yet - it is only October 10!

I don't know if this has already been covered elsewhere but there is a Google Earth overlay with which you can map (together) the Arctic Ice extent and SSTs (amongst other things). It is updated at least once every 24 hours.

If you have Google Earth then go to www.seaice.dk/damocles/Google.html and load the overlay from there.

I think it is already really very good- and further developments are planned. And, of course, with Google Earth you can zoom in to areas you are interested in.

The ice extent looks accurate when compared to the Cryoshere site and the SSTs should give a good idea where the new ice is likely to form.

Oh well, another thing to keep me at my PC in the evenings!

MM

[Polar Continental]

Yes, things are slowly looking up on the ice cover front - certainly to the east Arctic anyway. I suppose that when there is significant melt to the west the natural current brings the fresher water to the east which may encourage growth there. However, I'm not getting too excited just yet - it is only October 10!

I don't know if this has already been covered elsewhere but there is a Google Earth overlay with which you can map (together) the Arctic Ice extent and SSTs (amongst other things). It is updated at least once every 24 hours.

If you have Google Earth then go to www.seaice.dk/damocles/Google.html and load the overlay from there.

I think it is already really very good- and further developments are planned. And, of course, with Google Earth you can zoom in to areas you are interested in.

The ice extent looks accurate when compared to the Cryoshere site and the SSTs should give a good idea where the new ice is likely to form.

Oh well, another thing to keep me at my PC in the evenings!

MM

Hi Mr M

Thanks very much for the Google link, a brilliant little add on for us weather nuts, thats going to keep me busy tonight. :lol:

Paul

[Polar Continental]

have just been playing around with Google Earth, great image, not sure how accurate this is, apparently these ice reports are updated every 24 hours, looks like a useful tool. Edited October 10, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[summer blizzard]

Yes, it does look like a useful tool although it seems to confuse some cloud with ice, such as the link between Norway and Greenland.

[parmenides3]

The NSIDC also has a google earth live download on its site somewhere, which also contains snow & ice data, drift bouys & permafrost. The resolution is slightly different to the Damocles & cab 'flicker at times, but I like it.

:)P

[carinthian]

Hi ,

Further to the above report, lower temperatures in the NE of Greenland have now taken a grip. Todays grid reports show a solid concentration of ice in the Greenland Sea of about 120.000 Sq Km. This fast growth is caused by some very cold air mass development up here.The Greenland anticyclone will strengthen as a result of the chilling of the lower layers by the polar cold and there is great deal of evidence to show that their extent is affected from year to year by the extension of the ice pack, the limits of the anticyclone being more or less coincident with the limit of ice.

Carinthian

Morning, further to the above report:

Just to confirm the cold grip now taking hold in Northeast Greenland , the max recorded temp at the Nord Station yesterday was -21C compared to the normal average of -12.1C. The middle average so far this October is MINUS 19.6C ,which compares favourable with the long term average of-19.7C for period 1961/90 ( the cold decades).

C

[John Cox]

Hi C,

Nice cold hard facts as usual.

Thanks

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning, further to the above report:

Just to confirm the cold grip now taking hold in Northeast Greenland , the max recorded temp at the Nord Station yesterday was -21C compared to the normal average of -12.1C. The middle average so far this October is MINUS 19.6C ,which compares favourable with the long term average of-19.7C for period 1961/90 ( the cold decades).

C

More of the same Carinth, please. One of may favourite threads this with the info and visual maps/pictures on tap. Cheers guys

BFTP