Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[Dawlish]

NOAA have pasted the NSIDC's assessment of this year's ice minimum in their September update. This year was the second lowest ice minimum recorded, furthering the declining trend in summer Arctic ice.

"According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, which is measured from passive microwave instruments onboard NOAA satellites, was 5.9 million square kilometers as of September 14, 2006, the second lowest on record (image to the right). The September rate of sea ice decline is now almost 9 percent per decade (60,421 square kilometers per year). From January to mid-July 2006, the sea ice extent was well below the record set just last year. However, in August, temperatures near the pole were 1° to 2°C cooler than average, inhibiting further melting".

Paul

[Dawlish]

Reason may be that on cryosphere two of the sea ice areas were missing data?

Could easily be oldsnowywizard. Ice should be building in many areas by now. Your explanation, or local, or larger scale, weather conditions could delay the build-up, but I can't see there's much for Frosty to worry about. If you look at last year's Cryosphere figures, it doesn't show a linear build-up. Ice will extend outwards until, probably, March of next year. The interesting thing will be how far the build-up goes and then when the melt begins again.

The build-up has been fastest, so far, in the Greenland Sea, where lower temperatures have encouraged freezing, but that build up will probably slow in the coming week as the last few gfs runs show milder conditions covering much of Greenland; it looks like the cold, there, will deepen again from next weekend.

Most other areas of the Arctic have significantly less ice, at this time in the Autumn, than the 1971-2000 mean.

Paul

Edited October 15, 2006 by Dawlish

[parmenides3]

Could easily be oldsnowywizard. Ice should be building in many areas by now. Your explanation, or local, or larger scale, weather conditions could delay the build-up, but I can't see there's much for Frosty to worry about. If you look at last year's Cryosphere figures, it doesn't show a linear build-up. Ice will extend outwards until, probably, March of next year. The interesting thing will be how far the build-up goes and then when the melt begins again.

The build-up has been fastest, so far, in the Greenland Sea, where lower temperatures have encouraged freezing, but that build up will probably slow in the coming week as the last few gfs runs show milder conditions covering much of Greenland; it looks like the cold, there, will deepen again from next weekend.

Most other areas of the Arctic have significantly less ice, at this time in the Autumn, than the 1971-2000 mean.

Paul

Nah. It's a glitsch. CT graphs sometimes show huge bumps which make no sense. It has to do with the way the computer produces the graphs, I think. Best to consider it a processing anomaly, rather than an ice one. It'll sort itself out in the next day or two.

Small note: buth the NSIDC EASE grid, and the IWICOS/IOMASA site show the ice in the Arctic Basin at around 80% concentration, rather than the 100% I would expect by now; it may be that there are still some areas of ocean which contain melt areas or small pools, even though the temps. are now very low.

:)P

[noggin]

This year was the second lowest ice minimum recorded, furthering the declining trend in summer Arctic ice.

Paul

Just that one sentence can be read two ways! It could be read as you seem to have read it or it could be read that the decline has stalled because this year's minimum has not reached record-breakingly low coverage.

My comments are never facetious, BTW, they are simply how I see things and read things and observe things. :o

[acbrixton]

Just that one sentence can be read two ways! It could be read as you seem to have read it or it could be read that the decline has stalled because this year's minimum has not reached record-breakingly low coverage.

My comments are never facetious, BTW, they are simply how I see things and read things and observe things. B)

Well that may have not been Paul's most elegant contribution but it sems to me that there is only one realistic meaning: the fact that 2006 showed the second lowest minimum coverage after 2005 (and only slightly greater coverage than in 2005) keeps the long term trend from the early 1980s of declining minima in place.

It would really require some additional wording in the latter part of the sentence you to bear the meaning you affect to dicsern such as "weakening the earlier trend towards lower summer Arctic ice." Something clrealy not meant and statistically feeble.

Regards

ACB

[Dawlish]

errrrrrrr B)

Don't usually do statistically feeble, so I'll go with the first bit, ac!

Paul

Edited October 16, 2006 by Dawlish

[noggin]

Cheers, Tamara.

I think we may be of the same opinion on a few things (!) and I am always glad to see your excellent posts which often say what I have been trying (and failing) to say!

Time will tell, time will tell........

PS My apologies to Carinthian for hijacking his excellent (as always) thread.

Edited October 17, 2006 by noggin

[carinthian]

Cheers, Tamara.

I think we may be of the same opinion on a few things (!) and I am always glad to see your excellent posts which often say what I have been trying (and failing) to say!

Time will tell, time will tell........

PS My apologies to Carinthian for hijacking his excellent (as always) thread.

Hi Noggin,

Good to see you join the debate. Look forward to your continued thoughts. Yes, Tamara produces many excellent posts and not a gal to be messed with !

C

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian/Noggin

I don't own a broomstick really!

Whatever is happening down here - winter is arriving nicely in the frozen north. There may be an interruption to recent progress though over Siberia with the Euro High steering winds northwards from southern europe. Much like last autumn

Tamara

hI Tamara,

The signs are good as I will explain in tomorrows Latest Report.

Regards

C

[Optimus Prime]

I'll be looking forward to it carinthian becuae all I see is a record breaking warm year, once again and almost record low sea ice levels and massive + anomalies.

It would really surprise me if the cold air gets here at the crucial time, like it didn't last year.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'll be looking forward to it carinthian becuae all I see is a record breaking warm year, once again and almost record low sea ice levels and massive + anomalies.

It would really surprise me if the cold air gets here at the crucial time, like it didn't last year.

No record warm year :lol: do some checks....Antarctica now as cold as 79, arctic colder than last year, Greenland extreme cold etc etc etc..won't be record breaking year

BFTP

Edited October 17, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Optimus Prime]

No record warm year :lol: do some checks....Antarctica now as cold as 79, arctic colder than last year, Greenland extreme cold etc etc etc..won't be record breaking year

BFTP

Antarctica as cold as 1979? Why, was 1979 a warm one? And I know Antarctica has shown less warming, probably because south of the equator has less people, cars, cities, heat ect….

Arctic may be very, very slightly colder then last year, but wasn't last year a scorcher up there? (6-10c above normal) I would like to believe Greenland is experiencing extreme cold, but it physically isn't I'm afraid and it probably won't, in a sustained period again.

So this wsill be the 5th year in a row above 10c...Can you really see any winter in the future producing the classic cold spells?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Antarctica as cold as 1979? Why, was 1979 a warm one? And I know Antarctica has shown less warming, probably because south of the equator has less people, cars, cities, heat ect….

Arctic may be very, very slightly colder then last year, but wasn't last year a scorcher up there? (6-10c above normal) I would like to believe Greenland is experiencing extreme cold, but it physically isn't I'm afraid and it probably won't, in a sustained period again.

So this wsill be the 5th year in a row above 10c...Can you really see any winter in the future producing the classic cold spells?

OP simple, no not a scorcher it was 1-2C anomously warmer in 30s and 40s than now :lol: 1979 was cold down there...but I guess you were being facitious, and what is currently above 10C??????

BFTP

[Guest Viking141]

hI Tamara,

The signs are good as I will explain in tomorrows Latest Report.

Regards

C

Excellent. Look forward to that.

:lol:

[frozencanals]

Hi All

Nice to see the cold weather pushing south, it looks to me like almost all of the Scandinavian areas inside the arctic circle are now below zero and the start of a a snow covering is appearing over Norway/Sweden and Finland let hope it sticks..

Although I am no expert I really enjoy reading the inforamative posts in this thread, thanks and keep up the good work

Here's to a good winter pushing south...

FC

Edited October 18, 2006 by frozencanals

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Temps in moscow progged to go subzero by tomorrow,is that about the norm for mid october?

[beng]

Temps in moscow progged to go subzero by tomorrow,is that about the norm for mid october?

http://uk.weather.com/weather/climatology/RSXX0063

Temps would be below average there for the time of year if that happened.

:lol:

[chilly milly]

http://uk.weather.com/weather/climatology/RSXX0063

Temps would be below average there for the time of year if that happened.

:lol:

Thats interesting but it does tend to have an average min of -1C around now. Are the temps due to drop below 0 in the daytime?

[beng]

Thats interesting but it does tend to have an average min of -1C around now. Are the temps due to drop below 0 in the daytime?

Looks like they'll warm up by this time next week - judging by the latest model output. But it's Autumn so you'll get ups and downs.

[carinthian]

Greeting all,

The latest Arctic Report as I see it. Well here goes.

A large section of open water still remains in the Beaufort Sea as far as the Amundsen Gulf, however the Franklin District is now mainly ice locked. I would say sea ice off the Canadian/ Alaskan Rim is a fair bit below what we would normally expect. ( I think Pm3 and Dawlish are going to update the latest prospects for polar ice development in this region ).

Nearer to home the Greenland Sea ice drift continues to push into the Denmark Strait with sightings now being reported at 68N. Solid concentration above Scoresby Sound with reports of fast ice furtrher north.

Sea ice in the North Barent remains more advanced than this time last year. In the Kara Sea the big out flowing river estuaries of the Ob and Yenisey are now ice locked,but a good portion of the sea remains open as far out to Novaya Zemlya. Further east the Laptev Sea is now freezing over quickly ( much more than last year as the Central Siberian freeze is now established with added good covering of deep snowfall )

Three good signs to look out for :

1. Strong negative AO phase.( soon to become established)

2.Retention of a strong Greenland high, possibly with a link to a Mid - Atlantic high amplitude ridge.

3. Retention of the North Barent cold pool. ( established for some time now)

If this cold pool can push into the Norwegian Sea and the non - toppling high amplitude ridge forms we will be in for a classical Arctic winter, even in our latitudes. I am now more optomistic !

Carinthian

[chilly milly]

Aah I see, so probably best to look back on the month and see the temps in restrospect.

[Anti-Mild]

Excellent report Carinthian! Good to see the cold pool persisting in the North Barent.

AM

[carinthian]

Excellent report Carinthian! Good to see the cold pool persisting in the North Barent.

AM

Hi AM,

It is still growing and going to become quite potent. Its not going to be pushed away !

C

[Cal]

Carinthian, excellent posts as ever, do you have a link for sst's in the areas?

[Defector]

Thanks for your report Carinthian, it makes for good reading!

Phil.