Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[beng]

Just to back up something Carinthian's just posted - it's been very noticeable to me how we've not seen hardly any (if any) low pressure systems drive from the SW to the North of Scandinavia and then on into the Barents region so far this Autumn (certainly not the case though over the previous 10 autumns). I do remember hearing that there's a proven correlation (not sure how strong) between low pressure being blocked from that path during autumn and colder winter conditions over Europe.

You can see from the latest UKMO chart at 144 hours

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rukm1441.html

and from the GFS jet chart at the same time

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn14415.png

that if the cold to our NE continues to build (and it might not I suppose if the jet really cranked up) that it won't be long now before the cold pool there and the subsequent likely build of cold in Scandinavia forces the jet further south around our longitude. I'm not sure I buy the current GFS FI, but we'll see.

:lol:

Edited October 20, 2006 by beng

[Dawlish]

It doesn't explain why the ice is less and melting more than when the arctic was 1-2C anomalously warmer in the 30s and 40s than now. Can't see it being GW, must be another reason.

BFTP

It may not have been Blast, but the odds are stacked in favour of that being the cause now. Ask NOAA, or the NSIDC, or Damocles, or, well anyone apart from someone who wants it to get colder again

Paul

[The PIT]

It doesn't explain why the ice is less and melting more than when the arctic was 1-2C anomalously warmer in the 30s and 40s than now. Can't see it being GW, must be another reason.

BFTP

Pollution lowering the melting point????

[beng]

I cannot confirm this was the case in the cold periods of the 16th and 17th centuries but in more recent times a early cold mass formation in the areas mentioned resulted in severe cold winters in the British Isles (ie) 1963,1969,1979 and 1981.

1969 was the peak for southerly extent of ice nearest to the British Isles.

Hi Carinthian - I've got an email from Ian Currie who does our local forecasts saying that a tongue of ice was as far south as the Northern Isles in the summer of 1888 preventing the fishing fleet from entering the harbour in the Faeroes. Snow fell over all high ground in northern England that summer. I would imagine the ice extent was similar in the really cold episodes of the 16th/17th/18th centuries too.

:lol:

PS

Thanks Tamara - nice to have someone respond to what I posted

Edited October 20, 2006 by beng

[parmenides3]

I think if you bother to read carefully what I have written I have covered many of your points.

The 'laywoman' answers from me will have to suffice I'm afraid, I do not have the in depth technical or scientific qualities of many on here - but I do certainly have a good enough balanced and realistic grasp of what is going on and being said by those who provide the detail.

Back to the thread - I'm very much more interested in the post that Beng has just made.

It could be that the upcoming period means that much of the cold currently bottled in the pole will be distributed south eastwards into Scandinavia and a decent cool down will occur in Siberia, which will help the ice situation here. A virtuous cycle may be allowed to develop with the AO hinting at alternating between neg and positive with the positive anomalies in the pole being regularly distributed from the pole in +AO interludes (but being allowed to top-up again through relatively longer -AO phases which at this stage look a distinct possibility for the period ahead)

Tamara

Meteorology isn't really my strong point, Tamara, but I tend to think that the problem with getting the Northerly influence that so many of us would like, is the need for the Jet to really shift a bit. It looks easy enough on the charts, but time and again we've seen that the difference (which in the real world might equate to several hundred miles) can be quite small, between the right sort of blocking and the wrong sort and, in this case, the right kind of long-term trough to develop in the right place. It does look as if conditions are 'improving' in Canada in terms of shifting the jet the 'right' way and some cold influence coming both from the West and the North, and it is this sort of set-up which I suspect may be our best bet, in the shorter term, for some colder weather. We know that we can get the Northerly set-up, but in recent years it hasn't quite made it morer often than not. I'd really like a decent snowfall, for a change, but the odds are still against it, in the South at least, even if they are slightly better than in recent years.

:)P

[Cal]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...om.region.6.jpg

Interesting the data looks more promising in comparison with last year, if only slightly, if i have read it wrong then don't shoot me down in flames, i'm still new to this :lol:

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian - I've got an email from Ian Currie who does our local forecasts saying that a tongue of ice was as far south as the Northern Isles in the summer of 1888 preventing the fishing fleet from entering the harbour in the Faeroes. Snow fell over all high ground in northern England that summer. I would imagine the ice extent was similar in the really cold episodes of the 16th/17th/18th centuries too.

:lol:

PS

Thanks Tamara - nice to have someone respond to what I posted

Hi Beng,

I think Ian may well right. The period 1886-88 war a sequence of cold winters with 3 in a row producing a mean of less 3.5C for those corresponding winter periods.

C

[ScandiHigh]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...om.region.6.jpg

Interesting the data looks more promising in comparison with last year, if only slightly, if i have read it wrong then don't shoot me down in flames, i'm still new to this :lol:

I think you are right. More ice than last year in the Barents sea. Last year must have been a record low, however.

[carinthian]

Dawlish

Your first sentence is rather laced with sarcasm and there is obvious background irritation once again in your post - but the 'celebration' as you call it further down your post is cautiously optimistic, in very early and tentative stages, but certainly not the sort of 'pie in the sky' you steadfastly maintain.

It is perfectly reasonable to point out that at this stage of proceedings ice build-up and cold pooling is proceeding with better progress this side of the arctic than the other. In terms of current teleconnectic and SSTA plotting, the indications are cautiously favourable, at this stage anyway, for continued progress in terms of ice growth and cold pooling in areas that may benefit (for those that desire so anyway) the UK in terms of potential cold spells this winter. I don't think any such reports that I and others are welcoming from the likes of Carinthian etc are unjustifiable. Emerging (and currently continuing) possibilities of negative NAO to be a dominant feature of this winter, plus a more favourable southerly jet pattern - will be important in the ability to 'cash in' on any stack up of the cold to the north and east in the first instance, by producing the likely synoptics to advect those cold pools towards the British Isles without any blocking being sunk or disintegrated by a strong northerly jet.

So in that sense it does matter to cold weather wishers that ice and cold pools can build up in areas that are 'important' to the British Isles and any early signs that this is happening are bound to be welcomed (whilst at the same time stressing that they have to be maintained). We saw only last winter that record cold pooling occured over Russia - irrespective of the long term ice trends you continually mention as obstacles to cold. So straw clutching it is not.

A good measure and validation of this 'progress' of course will be to see whether the METO continue their thoughts started last month towards a colder outlook for the coming winter in their November report due very shortly.

So it is in these terms that phrases like 'good progress so far' 'things falling into place nicely' etc are being made. For the moment at least they remain. Nothing irrational about that - reflects a measured enough analysis of possibilities down the line. No-one is saying that anything is definitely going to happen but perhaps those who enjoy cold prospects are merely voicing and expressing their enthusiasm for recent developments. Cautiously and collectively.

If folk were pronouncing an imminent ice-age then your 'non-endearments' may have better foundation.

But thay are not. Expressions of enthusiasm will hopefully continue, not to try and exacerabate your obvious scorn and irritation at winter cold wishers - but simply and innocently because there is no reason for it to be misplaced - at least at this stage.

We will have to see for how long.

But you will need to be aware that you may have to put up with things in this respect :lol:

Tamara

hI tAMARA,

Great response. I am now getting fed up of the "mocking of this thread " by Dawlish. I report as I see it and have no aspirations to predict OR TO ESTABLISH MAKE PROOF OF the final outcome. I back by instinct to the hilt.

Thanks for the support gal.

Ps. He could start his own alternative Arctic Thread !

C

[parmenides3]

hI tAMARA,

Great response. I am now getting fed up of the "mocking of this thread " by Dawlish. I report as I see it and have no aspirations to predict OR TO ESTABLISH MAKE PROOF OF the final outcome. I back by instinct to the hilt.

Thanks for the support gal.

Ps. He could start his own alternative Arctic Thread !

C

I don't think its fair to describe Dawlish's input as 'mocking' Carinth. He asks relevant questions and looks at the data from a different perspective, which makes the thread more, not less interesting. I won't speak for the sarcasm, which many of us fall into at times (especially when provoked), but I do find his questions challenging and worthy of thought, as I do your comments, Tamara's and many others on the thread.

Anyway, back to the subject; We know about the effect that the AO can have on the NAO, and we know that the NAO is a princicipal driver of our weather. Does the current set-up favour the develpment of a sustained negative NAO? If so, will that provide support for the prospect of a more Northerly influence?

:)P

[ScandiHigh]

The SSTs to the West of Svalbard is around 4 C and preventning the sea ice to penetrate further south:

http://met.no/images/image_000128_1161266490.png

Even along the north coast SSTs are way above freezing. Seems like we need more of those cold northerlies to cool down the barent ocean.

To the east, however, SSTs are much more favourable for sea ice formation (around 0 and in some places less than 0 C).

Further to this, this ECMWF map

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/cat...33;latest!/

shows that the SSts to west of Svalbard are actually well below normal. (despite being 4-5 C)

[Snowly does it]

I don't think its fair to describe Dawlish's input as 'mocking' Carinth. He asks relevant questions and looks at the data from a different perspective, which makes the thread more, not less interesting. I won't speak for the sarcasm, which many of us fall into at times (especially when provoked), but I do find his questions challenging and worthy of thought, as I do your comments, Tamara's and many others on the thread.

Anyway, back to the subject; We know about the effect that the AO can have on the NAO, and we know that the NAO is a princicipal driver of our weather. Does the current set-up favour the develpment of a sustained negative NAO? If so, will that provide support for the prospect of a more Northerly influence?

:)P

The Socratic method works best I find.

On that front I would genuinely like to ask how the ice in the various areas affects the weather here, in generic terms? I love this thread but I struggle with its impact/meaning etc....

[tesaro]

Both sea ice, which floats on water, and glaciers and ice on land cool the Earth by reflecting the suns rays. Without large ice masses at the poles the Earth would absorb more heat and warming would escalate. When ocean temperature rises sea ice becomes thinner, exposing more water, thus reinforcing the warming trend and creating a positive feedback loop.

[carinthian]

I don't think its fair to describe Dawlish's input as 'mocking' Carinth. He asks relevant questions and looks at the data from a different perspective, which makes the thread more, not less interesting. I won't speak for the sarcasm, which many of us fall into at times (especially when provoked), but I do find his questions challenging and worthy of thought, as I do your comments, Tamara's and many others on the thread.

Anyway, back to the subject; We know about the effect that the AO can have on the NAO, and we know that the NAO is a princicipal driver of our weather. Does the current set-up favour the develpment of a sustained negative NAO? If so, will that provide support for the prospect of a more Northerly influence?

:)P

I set up this thread as purely a report based on my past experience and knowledge. Call into question throws doubt upon my wisdom for which I have answered many times on this thread. However, I will not be interrogated to quibble unsubstantial or purely verbal argument.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is there any chance of at least trying to answer any of the questions I've posed snowp? Or has the present state of Arctic ice got very little relevance whatsoever for out winter weather......apart from providing some with a reason to hope? Surely someone could have a good try? What is the proven link between Arctic ice build up and the winter weather in the UK? If there isn't a real link, why are people celebrating and providing running commentary as if it is of great import?

I think you mistake my mild amusement at yours and others' hoping for cold as irritation, snowp. I can't compete with you on sarcasm, I admit defeat :lol: , but I can assure you I have no need to put an angry smily anywhere in my posts!

Dawlish

Read what Carinthian has written! Oh and what has a hot Sahara desert got to do with the UK weather? About as much as extra sea ice/cold pooling. Double standards Maybe there isn't a connection but neither has your theory re 'plumes' controlling our synoptics

BFTP

[parmenides3]

The Socratic method works best I find.

On that front I would genuinely like to ask how the ice in the various areas affects the weather here, in generic terms? I love this thread but I struggle with its impact/meaning etc....

I've been waiting for someone else to reply, 'cos I'll probably get it wrong, but I suspect that the significance of the extent of the Arctic sea-ice is less about the direct effects it has on weather patterns, than what the extent tell us about the prevailing conditions; more ice, further south, would be a clear indicator that sea surface temperatures were colder, closer to the UK. It might also tell us that, to our North, conditions were a bit colder that 'standard'. In this case, we could reasonably expect more cyclonic activity and stronger winds, moving more cold air around, and leading to the potential for the right combination of conditions to force a mass of cold air Southwards, over the UK. These would include a low pressure area in the Barents Sea and a High over Scandinavia, probably with another LP to the East of Iceland, but not so placed as to create a 'blocking' in the wrong place. That's just a starter...

:)P

[carinthian]

Both sea ice, which floats on water, and glaciers and ice on land cool the Earth by reflecting the suns rays. Without large ice masses at the poles the Earth would absorb more heat and warming would escalate. When ocean temperature rises sea ice becomes thinner, exposing more water, thus reinforcing the warming trend and creating a positive feedback loop.

wELCOME Tesaro,

Spot on. The albedo of ice is to reflect 55% of the suns radition of sea ice and 80% when snow covered. Good post.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It may not have been Blast, but the odds are stacked in favour of that being the cause now. Ask NOAA, or the NSIDC, or Damocles, or, well anyone apart from someone who wants it to get colder again

Paul

Just want a simple answer.......warm up was quicker back then too. :lol:

BFTP

Edited October 20, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowly does it]

I've been waiting for someone else to reply, 'cos I'll probably get it wrong, but I suspect that the significance of the extent of the Arctic sea-ice is less about the direct effects it has on weather patterns, than what the extent tell us about the prevailing conditions; more ice, further south, would be a clear indicator that sea surface temperatures were colder, closer to the UK. It might also tell us that, to our North, conditions were a bit colder that 'standard'. In this case, we could reasonably expect more cyclonic activity and stronger winds, moving more cold air around, and leading to the potential for the right combination of conditions to force a mass of cold air Southwards, over the UK. These would include a low pressure area in the Barents Sea and a High over Scandinavia, probably with another LP to the East of Iceland, but not so placed as to create a 'blocking' in the wrong place. That's just a starter...

:)P

OK, I understand that! I've always been a bit scared to jump into Carinths thread but now we are coming round to winter again I'd like to know a little more of what to look for than the 4-times a day and one before bed GFS

[parmenides3]

OK, I understand that! I've always been a bit scared to jump into Carinths thread but now we are coming round to winter again I'd like to know a little more of what to look for than the 4-times a day and one before bed GFS

Read this explanation, it's much better than mine, and much more useful: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=11392

:)P

[Snowly does it]

Read this explanation, it's much better than mine, and much more useful: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=11392

:)P

thanks :lol:

[parmenides3]

I set up this thread as purely a report based on my past experience and knowledge. Call into question throws doubt upon my wisdom for which I have answered many times on this thread. However, I will not be interrogated to quibble unsubstantial or purely verbal argument.

C

I read and understand, C. :lol: Now, we need your input on how ice conditions influence our weather...

:)P

[carinthian]

I read and understand, C. :lol: Now, we need your input on how ice conditions influence our weather...

:)P

Hi,

Regarding our own winter, I have best answered in post number 261.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi,

Regarding our own winter, I have best answered in post number 261.

C

The runs to me continue the cold pooling in the barents area as far as I can see...it seems to continue with very little interference.

BFTP

[SMU]

I've been waiting for someone else to reply, 'cos I'll probably get it wrong, but I suspect that the significance of the extent of the Arctic sea-ice is less about the direct effects it has on weather patterns, than what the extent tell us about the prevailing conditions; more ice, further south, would be a clear indicator that sea surface temperatures were colder, closer to the UK. It might also tell us that, to our North, conditions were a bit colder that 'standard'. In this case, we could reasonably expect more cyclonic activity and stronger winds, moving more cold air around, and leading to the potential for the right combination of conditions to force a mass of cold air Southwards, over the UK. These would include a low pressure area in the Barents Sea and a High over Scandinavia, probably with another LP to the East of Iceland, but not so placed as to create a 'blocking' in the wrong place. That's just a starter...

:)P

For the benefit of a few that have asked- Im sure carinthian had explained somewhere along the lines-

The Snow & ice extent is covered by the term 'Cryosphere' ( Hence the name ofthe site Cryosphere today)-

The cryosphere 'region' is an area that is condusive to ccoling- As we already know Snow & Ice have a large Albedo compared with open water or 'green' snowless areas-

Having a wider area of ice & Snow cover suspends higher amounts pf incoming solar radiation from being absorbed -Granted, above 67N latitude there is darkness for much of the cold season due to the tilting away from the ecliptic, which falls beneath the southern horizon. So we ask, “what difference would it make then”.. Well, there is a background OLR even the polar-regions that is calculated to have a less than negligible effect on the lower troposphere. Thus, in years of advancing snow cover at high latitudes, these 2 factors feed back in a process of heat sink. The end result is the production of cold air masses and has been statistically correlated to increased frequencies of the negative Arctic Oscillation phase states, when the NH snow pack is more abundant. For more than this, a good website the covers all this in better refinement is:

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/questions/index.html

Obviously 'seasonally' the Cryospheric region is variable- so this is why we look towards the change in seasons ( latter Sept, Oct & Nov) to see the build up of the snowpack & Ice extent across the various regions extrapolated in the data-

You could say simply- The 'overall ' anomaly of cryosphere against the norm observed the more chance there is of negative Artic Oscillation setting up-

This can then be subtended to the NAO that has a statistical linear correlation to the AO of +0.7 meaning that they are highly correlated.

There will be sceptics out there that refuse to buy into the cryosphere theory but there is SUBSTANTIAL data to suggest that this summation is pretty on the mark-

So as we head into Oct which out of the year sees the biggest positive increase in snowcover across the month we look to trends in snowpack development & potential winter feedback loops as a result of the data analysis-

here is the current snow data V last year as of Friday the 20th Oct-

2005-

2006-

As can see we are in a considerably better place than last year-

Now this has already set up a Negative Artic oscillation feedback which should hopefully become self perpetuating- Possibly aided by Artic cloud cover & warmer that ave stratospheric temps-

Which does correlate nice with the NAO-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...index_mrf.shtml

What has to be said at this point is the end result of this is Strong & more 'violent' polar surges South- this has already been observed Stateside where record lows/minima have been broken across the board infact its still happening in terms of anomaly V norm-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.png

Look at the scale- the departures are some -12/-15 below the ave-

What must be said here is how on earth are we so mild when the AO is trending negative-

One main thing is Stopping the cold coming this way and thats the feedback loops from the Summer SSTA's & Summer heat HASNT been Shifted, the super strong Central Europe heat ridge is hanging on for dear life- but things WILL change- remember its NOT IF ITS WHEN-

Obviously I love the cold but this current sustained warmth is a distraction but its only a minor distraction - we have 5 weeks to winter proper & I will eat my hat if the feedback change hasnt happened by then-

The change will come & it will arrive with a bang....

S

Edited October 21, 2006 by Steve Murr