Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Lt. Dan]

 Sprites Could be. Just have to keep an eye on vis/IR sat this evening.

[cheeky_monkey]

Severe geomagnetic storm may spark widespread auroras over Canada on Friday - The Weather Network

WWW.THEWEATHERNETWORK.COM

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Fingers crossed for clear conditions Friday night as the potential grows for widespread auroras across Canada

might be worth a look tonight at first thing in the morning..generally i get up and go for a walk around 5 am 

[weatherobsuk]

From what's forecast on various Aurora forecast maps the window for us in the UK tomorrow morning will be between 2am and 5am, after which the twilight will become too bright to see anything. Around 7am is when the peak of the activity will hit at a max KP of 8.33 although it'll be steadily rising from KP7 after 4am but there still could be a chance of seeing things happen much earlier if the colliding CME's speed up before reaching Earth.

[Fen Wolf]

Hopefully!  Fingers crossed 

[iand61]

 weatherobsuk  a bit like boxing then, always timed to suit the American audience

It could be a 4 oclocker for me then but as you say, it might be earlier and hopefully about 12 hours sooner.

[Fen Wolf]

What is the estimated max for southern uk currently please?  

[weatherobsuk]

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

[Fen Wolf]

 weatherobsuk about 7am for southern england too?  So my best chance is around 3am? 

[weatherobsuk]

 Fen Wolf  3am is when the KP should start to rise above KP5 although for Southern England you'd need at least a KP6 to start seeing anything, it's a tricky one to forecast as the Aurora peaks just as sunrise is beginning so the higher latitudes get the best 'potential' display but the worst timing with regards to the increasing sunlight. We can only hope that the forecast is slightly out by 1hr or so that gives at least a more useable window for viewing.

[weatherobsuk]

Seems like the MetOffice Aurora model is now bringing the timings further back to 10pm this evening  which is a vast difference compared to the NOAA output, i'm tempted to head out early and just pull a 'all nighter' incase it all kicks off within the middle-ground at midnight. 

[Southern Storm]

 weatherobsuk If its not cloud it's the wrong time of day, that just about sums up the UKs luck when it comes to these things, I'm keeping an open mind about something showing up earlier than expected, I believe the last major event we had at the end of March arrived earlier than expected. 

[Southern Storm]

 weatherobsuk They nailed it in 2023, February 22nd I think, so fingers crossed 

[Lt. Dan]

I imagine most people here are aware of the Glendale App for Aurora alerts, but it might be worth following their Telegram channel too as their server gets overwhelmed during busy events (as they have noted today). Following that and keeping a check on cloud cover will be this evenings activity

[Evening thunder]

Ooh, Just logged onto https://spaceweather.com/ and saw: 

"THE FIRST CME HAS ARRIVED: The first of six CMEs hurled toward Earth by giant sunspot AR3664 is minutes away form striking our planet's magnetic field. It has just passed the DSCOVR spacecraft and will soon close the gap to Earth. This could be a 'Cannibal CME' composed of two or three individual storm clouds--or simply the first of six. We will soon find out." 

I'm hoping to get out to a dark spot and at least capture something using long exposure time on my phone. Expectations limited this far south in terms of what's visible to the eye but I've never seen it before. The last few times when there's been photos from Dartmoor, Cornwall etc I've had my eye off the ball and only known about it afterwards.

 

Edited May 10 by Evening thunder

[weatherobsuk]

I couldn't remember if it was DSCOVR or SOHO but one of those Solar Observation satellites gives us a 90-minute 'heads up' on Earth in terms of what type of impact to expect, including the polarity of the CME. Camera and Car is packed so i'll be heading off soon up t'Yorkshire for a all-nighter. Good luck to everyone.

[Lt. Dan]

 weatherobsuk Good luck!

if I didn't have to be up at 6:30am tomorrow I think I would have taken a chance and blasted North.

[Evening thunder]

 weatherobsuk

Yeah https://solarham.com/ reporting both the ACE and DISCOVR have detected the arrival of the first CME and should reach Earth within 45 minutes (posted 17:50). Certainly been interesting watching these sites perhaps more closely than I have before over the last few days.

Hopefully it saves the best for the hours of darkness!

Edited May 10 by Evening thunder

[LeeKay/]

First 'contact' shall we say?

 

https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

 

[Southern Storm]

 Evening thunder good luck for tonight, if this does end up being as strong as some are suggesting you should be able to see it with the naked eye, weather permitting of course, the Moon won't be a problem either so If you can get yourself to a dark site you stand a good chance. 

I managed to see it with the naked eye, and that was not far from the south coast!

[LeeKay/]

Many oriantations on the ISS may be done.

Live cams down to earth easy picks but currently this cam is showing  a decent viewing, if they stream for a few hours without blackouts?

https://www.youtube.com/nasa/live

 

[Fen Wolf]

 LeeKay/ was about to post that pic, huge increase suddenly! 

[Love Snow]

Best place to see the Northern lights in Yorkshire please ?

[The PIT]

Well that should mean one of two things for me. Cloud rolls up or a sleep like a log as haven't slept well the past two nights.

[Scuba steve]

 Love Snow Tan hill pub

[ThomasD27]

This outlook has persuaded me to pop down to my local pig farm tonight, hopefully to capture my first ever aurora. It's about as far as you can get from lights round here, and has a great open view to the north.  Only trouble is it stinks! A thick layer of altostratus nebulosus has given way to just the odd cirrus cloud, and even those are disappearing now, so hoping for the best!!