February CET

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest GFS run the period 15th-20th will have an average temperature off 6.4c.

The current Metcheck CET is 3.6 so by the 20th the CET should be around 4.8c.

Edited February 13, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Roger J Smith]

All depends on which recent model run you fancy, I give them equal chances, the 00z run would certainly drop the mean into the 3s with several days looking subzero near the end of the month.

23x5.2 + (-10) would give 109.6/28 which is 3.91 C -- that's about the estimate from the 00z

From the 06z I would say 6.2

[Snowly does it]

overnights are variable from the GFS and daytimes not seeing widespread double figs aside from Thursday. I'd say 6 is the upper limit from here barring an 06z development and I'd tighten the range to 4.2 (yeah!) to 5 as my expected outcome now.

No record winter, no number of the beast winter, and steak for me.

[Snowly does it]

7.73 required every day from here to get to 6

9.12 to take the winter record

Both unlikely I'd say

[Stratos Ferric]

7.73 required every day from here to get to 6

9.12 to take the winter record

Both unlikely I'd say

The former is plausible if minima stay up at 4-5; the latter is beyond the bounds of possible.

[Snowly does it]

The former is plausible if minima stay up at 4-5; the latter is beyond the bounds of possible.

Would require maxima of 11 throughout the CET zone given minima of 4-5...

Can't see it myself, some colder nights to come and as yet no 'heatwave' maxima CET-wide

I'll buy plausible.

[West is Best]

7.73 required every day from here to get to 6

9.12 to take the winter record

Both unlikely I'd say

I'm bemused at some of the posts on here today ... and where does OP get the Metcheck CET from? Philip's is always closest to Hadley, and it was 3.7C up to last night.

I'm fairly confident we're going to be at or around 6C with a week to go, so those completely writing off the winter record are being foolish or foolhardy or both. The range looks now to be 4.5C to 7+C. The latter unlikely, but Roger's 3C or even in the 2's is even more fantastical I'm afraid now.

Watch it rise ... and rise

Edited February 13, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

I'm bemused at some of the posts on here today ... and where does OP get the Metcheck CET from? Philip's is always closest to Hadley, and it was 3.7C up to last night.

I'm fairly confident we're going to be at or around 6C with a week to go, so those completely writing off the winter record are being foolish or foolhardy or both. The range looks now to be 4.5C to 7+C. The latter unlikely, but Roger's 3C is even more fantastical I'm afraid now.

Watch it rise ... and rise

Richard, I know it will rise but the winter record (6.8 right?) requires over 9 for the rest of the month, thats highly improbable even in a very mild spell, for 16 days on the trot without a colder snap, the amazing January and December returns were nowhere near that mark.

6 by the 21st requires 9, that is just not being progged by GFS or the MetO outlook.

Edit - the 18z is close, but still below the required amount.

Edited February 13, 2007 by snowmaiden

[West is Best]

6 by the 21st requires 9, that is just not being progged by GFS or the MetO outlook.

Let's see Charlotte! (Close of play on 21st to leave 7 days for the record!)

I think we're going to see some substantially warming days. Big difference from Dec/Jan is that the sun is now getting high enough to pull some nice maxima in, and there's little cold in the minima. Maxima potential rises by as much as 5C towards the end of Feb over Dec/Jan, which isn't the same as saying that will happen. But this is where 850's count more, and I'm liking the look of them, so watch this space!

[Snowly does it]

Let's see Charlotte! (Close of play on 21st to leave 7 days for the record!)

I think we're going to see some substantially warming days. Big difference from Dec/Jan is that the sun is now getting high enough to pull some nice maxima in, and there's little cold in the minima. Maxima potential rises by as much as 5C towards the end of Feb over Dec/Jan, which isn't the same as saying that will happen. But this is where 850's count more, and I'm liking the look of them, so watch this space!

I'll bet you a bonus steak we won't be at 6 on the 21st.

[SMU]

Let's see Charlotte! (Close of play on 21st to leave 7 days for the record!)

I think we're going to see some substantially warming days. Big difference from Dec/Jan is that the sun is now getting high enough to pull some nice maxima in, and there's little cold in the minima. Maxima potential rises by as much as 5C towards the end of Feb over Dec/Jan, which isn't the same as saying that will happen. But this is where 850's count more, and I'm liking the look of them, so watch this space!

In the context of the thread it doesnt really matter- but where do you pluck these things from????

S

[West is Best]

I'll bet you a bonus steak we won't be at 6 on the 21st.

OK you're on. But that means Philip's update on 22nd (i.e. up to and including the 21st). Even if it's over 5.5C I'm going to be happy.

Steve: models, upstream signals, experience. And before you have a go bear in mind I'm on top of the CET table ... ahem ... for the moment

[Snowly does it]

OK you're on. But that means Philip's update on 22nd (i.e. up to and including the 21st). Even if it's over 5.5C I'm going to be happy.

7.9 will get you your 5.5 for the 21st.... I wouldn't bet on that either

OK, terms accepted.

[TEITS]

Let's see Charlotte! (Close of play on 21st to leave 7 days for the record!)

I think we're going to see some substantially warming days. Big difference from Dec/Jan is that the sun is now getting high enough to pull some nice maxima in, and there's little cold in the minima. Maxima potential rises by as much as 5C towards the end of Feb over Dec/Jan, which isn't the same as saying that will happen. But this is where 850's count more, and I'm liking the look of them, so watch this space!

Surely though WIB with the sun being higher we would require clear skies and sunshine to have a greater impact on the max temps. Well if that's the case then clear skies would equally bring colder mins!.

Edited February 13, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[TEITS]

Sounds like you got that out of the ladybird guide to weather Dave. There's some truth in it, but rather simplistic ...

Off to have a bath. Let's resume this debate tomorrow!

Simple is my middle name .

Speaking of books picked up a weather book yesterday that was printed in 1941 and it's in mint condition.

[Stratos Ferric]

Let's see Charlotte! (Close of play on 21st to leave 7 days for the record!)

I think we're going to see some substantially warming days. Big difference from Dec/Jan is that the sun is now getting high enough to pull some nice maxima in, and there's little cold in the minima. Maxima potential rises by as much as 5C towards the end of Feb over Dec/Jan, which isn't the same as saying that will happen. But this is where 850's count more, and I'm liking the look of them, so watch this space!

WIB, on that point I do have to disagree with you. The thermal minimum is in early Feb, yes the sun is climbing but the ocean is still cooling. I don't think the typical difference between late Feb and late December maxima would ever reach 5C.

Looking at my first projection for the month, based on a cold model run, we're already 0.3C above the upper projection, and with no real prospect of any significant cold that that run included. Assuming such cold doesn't materialise then adding 1C or so is not outwith the bounds of possibility - giving an outturn in the low 6s. I do sympathise with Steve's view and EITS's point; with some clear nights in cold sector air mins around freezing are perfectly likely. I think the range now is around 4.5-6.

[Stephen W]

Will punt for around 5.5C - 5.8C assuming temps of around 5 min and 9 max til end of month with one or two days with max above 10C. So around 1.5C above norm here. Not scientific but there you go..

[West is Best]

WIB, on that point I do have to disagree with you. The thermal minimum is in early Feb, yes the sun is climbing but the ocean is still cooling. I don't think the typical difference between late Feb and late December maxima would ever reach 5C.

Having the occasional disagreement will show others that all is well with the world, and that we're not the same person!

The record maxima for each day of the year shows a normal range at the end of December of circa 16C, in January of 15C, but by the last 10 days of February it rises to 18C or 19C http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextrem...ghtempsyear.php

I may have exaggerated by a degree though!

A number of factors can assuredly cause a high daytime max but not a low nighttime min? Indeed, I suggest that a clear day following a clear night in February will not produce high temperatures because there is not the thermal capacity yet. It is possible to have high daytime maxima with clearing skies; where clouds have burnt off; with a Fohn effect and with generally warm upper air temps. I think from this time of year onwards the 850hPa's become the major player in calculating ground temperatures.

4C at close of play yesterday with Philip ... a rise of 0.3C in 24 hours, and that makes 1.1C in 3 days. Interesting to see the more official CET start to outpace the tracker. There are reasons for this to do with the 'spike' reading of minima and maxima I think.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm fairly confident we're going to be at or around 6C with a week to go, so those completely writing off the winter record are being foolish or foolhardy or both.

Morning Richard.

Well, I do partly agree, although I do also disagree (Sitting on the fence is my Forte )

Anyway, 6oC, or at least near is potentially possible, although I would go lower than that (but not to a massive extent). Also, I take it for the winter record to be broken, we would be going on the CET zone? At least on immediately available data, this is what we tend to work on.

So, here are the projected temps from the 00z for a CET county (my favourite one though )

Probably an average of around 6oC on those? The problem is, is if the average is around 6oC, the incline of the CET is going to start rapid, but as it gets closer to the 6oC mark, the rate of incline will decrease. So on that basis, I would say 6oC is perhaps more probable later on in the chart.

Just my thoughts anyhow.

Surely though WIB with the sun being higher we would require clear skies and sunshine to have a greater impact on the max temps. Well if that's the case then clear skies would equally bring colder mins!.

In principle correct Dave, but over the last few years, what has been the most notable factor in increasing the CET is the minima (more so than the maxima anyway). Even with clear skies, cold winds etc, the main trend (certainly over the last few years) is for the minima to stay higher than normally expected.

On that basis, I wouldnt bank on clear skies giving the lows we would once expect, and thus not dropping the daily CET lower than we would hope.

There are always exceptions to the rule, or at least, exceptions being expectations.

[Snowly does it]

Average at mid month, so approximately speaking any outturn requires the desired outturn plus or minus the difference from 4.2 to be achieved. 7 would require 9.8 for example or 3 would require 1.8.

All depends on the Arctic High now as to whether its a mild month or an average one. Getting below average from here with the coming few days of above average would be impressive.

[West is Best]

Philip has just updated. 3.3C to the 11th so a rise of 0.4C yesterday.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens!

Incidentally, Hadley is, or was, 0.1C above Philip at close of play on 11th http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Chris, the GFS has been under-estimating temperatures quite significantly. I don't disagree necessarily. I merely think that ruling out something well into the 6's would be foolhardy now. I'd rate the 6.8C record at around 15% likely from here. Something lower is much more plausible.

[Snowly does it]

Incidentally, Hadley is, or was, 0.1C above Philip at close of play on 11th http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Chris, the GFS has been under-estimating temperatures quite significantly. I don't disagree necessarily. I merely think that ruling out something well into the 6's would be foolhardy now. I'd rate the 6.8C record at around 15% likely from here. Something lower is much more plausible.

Morning Richard, assuming Hadley is still 0.1 higher, 9.14 required for the winter record, a degree ahead of the April average.

[West is Best]

Morning Richard, assuming Hadley is still 0.1 higher, 9.14 required for the winter record, a degree ahead of the April average.

Morning Charlotte. Thing is that averages encompass cold as well as warm spells. A 10 day run of 9C in February is easily possible. It really does all depend on the synoptics. If this month remains synoptically as showing then we're extremely likely to get past 6C. I guess that's the only definite point I want to make. The range from here is huge: anything between 3.5C and 7.5C.

[Snowly does it]

Morning Charlotte. Thing is that averages encompass cold as well as warm spells. A 10 day run of 9C in February is easily possible. It really does all depend on the synoptics. If this month remains synoptically as showing then we're extremely likely to get past 6C. I guess that's the only definite point I want to make. The range from here is huge: anything between 3.5C and 7.5C.

Now you're just teasing, 7.5?! That requires nearly May temperatures!

OK, we clearly differ here because I frankly think over 6 is wishful thinking based on recent output, but we'll see.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think perhaps there are two potential confusing points here.

First of all, I think 6oC is probably going to be a benchmark based on current outputs, probably +/- 0.5oC. This is however fo the whole run, and not just up to a certain date (say 21st).

Secondly, we perhaps need to make sure that we are talking about the same areas. The CET zone, or the S/W?

One thing I do lean towards agreement on, is that the potential for the end of the month could still produce something below average, or indeed well above.