February CET

[Anti-Mild]

I don't know if this point has been raised but....

it's quite early to be predicting February's outcome with any certainty but, given the cool start, it is likely that it'll end up in the range of 3.5c to 5c. It also seems likely that there will be a cold spell towards the end of the month. What if it is delayed? I wonder what the chances are that March cold end up colder than any of the winter months.

Long way away but you never know!!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

I don't know if this point has been raised but....

it's quite early to be predicting February's outcome with any certainty but, given the cool start, it is likely that it'll end up in the range of 3.5c to 5c. It also seems likely that there will be a cold spell towards the end of the month. What if it is delayed? I wonder what the chances are that March cold end up colder than any of the winter months.

Long way away but you never know!!

March is going to be much like what Febuary may well turn out like, some cold but a large majority of Warmer weather. I have a high confidence in my seasonal forecast for once and i am predicting a very cold first few days before we see spring...

i could always be wrong....

SM06

[Stratos Ferric]

Interesting. I'm surpirsed that someone as statistically alert as you would let that one slip. Unless of course you believe that the last week in February is set in stone as mild?

It's not that, but assuming we get a recovery over the next week then it will be very hard (accepting that we are not in arctic circle) for CET to get as low as it will be about now. It would require an exceptional end to the month, and yes, I'm assuming that that isn't going to happen despite BFTP's many assurances to me that the 17th is the day to watch.

And, to reiterate, I did say "the odds are that it won't happen", not quite the same thing as saying that it cannot, just that personally I'd give long odds on it doing so.

Edited February 9, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[West is Best]

Those feeling confident about a very cold final outturn for the month may now be in for something of a surprise I fancy. We've just reached 2.7C on Philip's site which will be the bottoming out for the month almost certainly given a milder week ahead. The fact that this figure is only up to 9 days of a 28 day month really does invite caution. Afterall, 9 days coming in at a little over a modest 7C would leave us not far off 5C by the 18th. With the sun getting 'stronger' each day the outturn for the month will all hinge on the final 1/3rd. Let's suppose we are somewhere between 4.5C and 5C by the 19th. The final third could see the final figure end up anywhere between 2.5C and 6.5C. My guess is now the high 5's.

What I think we can probably now dismiss is talk of a either a record month or a record winter, although we may well end up still with a top ten mildest winter. Again, without wanting to be shot down in flames for this what may be remarkable is that in a week of significant snow for some, the overall temperature may well not be cold at all.

[fender]

The nature of our British weather. In one of the mildest winters that I can recall, and Ive seen a far few. I had more snow during the last 2 days than in the previouse 3 years.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think temps will come in at 4.9c. I think a late cold splurge will drop things down from 5.6c to a final sub 5 figure.

[Snowly does it]

Afterall, 9 days coming in at a little over a modest 7C would leave us not far off 5C by the 18th.

Come now Richard, 7 is hardly 'modest' for February is it?!

7 would in fact be a remarkably mild spell, and would depend on minima as maxima whilst looking above average on occasion do not look anything like the high maxima at times in Jan or Dec.

5 by the 18th would require 7.3 daily until then and last night did not get it off to the best of starts.

I'll say 4.5 by the 18th and below average to average by months end, just to be cantankerous.

[Snowly does it]

Just as an aside and to cheer everyone up, the period 5-9 February saw a Manley CET return of -0.3, short but sweet, a negative return.

[Snowyowl9]

It`s far from mild here now another night below freezing at -0.4c and hasn`t got above 2.4c yet with all this gloom/fog and thick snow cover temperatures will take quite a while to recover here make that 2c more for the midlands.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

I am thinking this month may well turn out at around 5.5 mark....

SM06

[Optimus Prime]

Those feeling confident about a very cold final outturn for the month may now be in for something of a surprise I fancy. We've just reached 2.7C on Philip's site which will be the bottoming out for the month.

Come on WIB you always said the netweather tracker was closer to the metoffice figure then the manley. Why use Philips now? Because it's higher?

But I agree that the 24 hour average temperature will be close to 7.0c for quite some time so a remarkable correction is definetely going to happen but then again would we really expect anything else in a warming and polluted climate?

If we get the 7.0c for everyday until the 15th the average temperature would come out at 3.93c. So nowhere near 5.0c just yet but I suspect it will eventually head that way.

[Thundery wintry showers]

What I think we can probably now dismiss is talk of a either a record month or a record winter, although we may well end up still with a top ten mildest winter. Again, without wanting to be shot down in flames for this what may be remarkable is that in a week of significant snow for some, the overall temperature may well not be cold at all.

I actually agree with that; the milder week to come should bring the temp' back above average. In the monthly forecast I went for a cold spell in the latter part of the month, brought by NE winds, but even so I expected a CET of 4.4 which isn't particularly cold.

That doesn't mean that it will stay mild and snowless through until next season though- or even the end of the month!

[tinybill]

I actually agree with that; the milder week to come should bring the temp' back above average. In the monthly forecast I went for a cold spell in the latter part of the month, brought by NE winds, but even so I expected a CET of 4.4 which isn't particularly cold.

That doesn't mean that it will stay mild and snowless through until next season though- or even the end of the month!

dont know about that looking at the gfs for the end of the fed looks like to me it could be very cold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What I think we can probably now dismiss is talk of a either a record month or a record winter, although we may well end up still with a top ten mildest winter. Again, without wanting to be shot down in flames for this what may be remarkable is that in a week of significant snow for some, the overall temperature may well not be cold at all.

We'll see WIB, more changes to come but for sure record month and winter are gone....won't be as mild this week as expected, certainly today we did not reach 10c in Redhill or generally the SE.

SF 17-20 please not 17th, however I stick by evolution, 12 z shows serious potential again...lots to play for and models will be hopeless for days yet

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

We'll see WIB, more changes to come but for sure record month and winter are gone....won't be as mild this week as expected, certainly today we did not reach 10c in Redhill or generally the SE.

SF 17-20 please not 17th, however I stick by evolution, 12 z shows serious potential again...lots to play for and models will be hopeless for days yet

BFTP

Don't worry Blast, duly noted.

Anyway, first projection for month here...

It all very much hinges on the second half of the month (note that to date this month the entire anomaly is accounted for by low minima); the models continue to bounce around and we . It would be unusual for February to stay mild from herein, even in these unusual times. This projection suggests something in the range 4.5-5.0, but it is based on the coldest model run that I've seen for a few days. Cool zonal looks likeliest, but the margins either side of this remain considerable, given that the projection for the jet is at or around our latitude.

[kold weather]

Its a very hard call to make SF because of the model uncertainty is greater then normal due to split jets upstream and in the Atlantic.

If i was to make a punt for now this would be how it goes:

15th: 4.3C

16th: 4.3C

17th: 4.5C

18th: 4.6C

19th: 4.4C

20th: 4.5C

21st: 4.3C

22nd: 4.2C

23rd: 4.0C (cold spell starts.)

24th: 3.9C

25th: 3.8C

26th: 3.6C

27th: 3.5C

28th: 3.4C

Not as good as SF little diagram but that would be my own personal punt. Not too far from SF but I doub tthere'd be a recovery.

As for cool zonality, maybe but I don't think its any more likely then a bartlett or even a easterly right now, but I think its fair to say this next 15 days will be dominated one way or another by the jet.

[Stratos Ferric]

The nature of our British weather. In one of the mildest winters that I can recall, and Ive seen a far few. I had more snow during the last 2 days than in the previouse 3 years.

That's a very good point, and highlights the almost unique variability of our weather.

Re WIB's point: I suspect we probably will at least just edge a top 10 finish. It would require a sustained cold spell at the end of the month to hold the CET under 4, which is about the level required for a top 10 finish, not out of the question but certianly not clear cut either. The jet looks like going fairly unstable and in these circumstances the surface is likely to be hard to forecast more than 4-5 days out. It could certainly continue to be a very changeable month, and it isn't going to outturn as mild as the previous two.

[Stratos Ferric]

Its a very hard call to make SF because of the model uncertainty is greater then normal due to split jets upstream and in the Atlantic.

...

26th: 3.6C

27th: 3.5C

28th: 3.4C

Not as good as SF little diagram but that would be my own personal punt. Not too far from SF but I doub tthere'd be a recovery.

As for cool zonality, maybe but I don't think its any more likely then a bartlett or even a easterly right now, but I think its fair to say this next 15 days will be dominated one way or another by the jet.

It's certainly not out of the question, although obviously my hat is in a different ring right now. If it did end up that low it would be the coldest month, relative to it's recent mean, since Dec 1995.

I might be being a pedant but if the weather's dominated by the jet then in my book that's zonality. As I punted in my winter forecast, I'm not seeing a big block this year in February.

[summer blizzard]

I'm still ahppy with my punt of 4.7C, a warmer second week with a cold spell around mid month followed by a warm end to the month, with the Jet Stream phasing twice over the USA in the next ten days, i just cannot see a sustained cold spell for long enougth to force a below average CET.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm still ahppy with my punt of 4.7C, a warmer second week with a cold spell around mid month followed by a warm end to the month, with the Jet Stream phasing twice over the USA in the next ten days, i just cannot see a sustained cold spell for long enougth to force a below average CET.

It's far from cut and dried, but my hunch is that this lunchtime's run will be a bit of an outlier (the same thing happened in November if I remember rightly) and the CET will end up at the top if this initial range, or slightly higher. I still suspect 4.5-5.5 is the likely window.

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has updated and Manley stands at 2.9 to the 10th.

Rolling 7 until the 28th would just squeak us 5.5, unlikely the whole remainder of the month will run at that level imo.

3.5 to 5 the range for me, but I stand prepared to be wrong as always.

[West is Best]

Phillip has updated and Manley stands at 2.9 to the 10th.

Rolling 7 until the 28th would just squeak us 5.5, unlikely the whole remainder of the month will run at that level imo.

3.5 to 5 the range for me, but I stand prepared to be wrong as always.

Charlotte I do think you may be under-calling it. I think we're going to see at least 7C for the next week, and probably higher, so that we may not be that far off 5C by close of play on 18th. That may seem outlandishly high, and I may in turn be over-calling it, but this is going to be a sharply upward trend from here.

So it will come down to the final 1/3rd of the month. I'll stick with my winter LRF: that spring is now kicking in and with the sun getting warmer in the sky I think we may end up with a surprisingly mild month.

[Snowly does it]

Charlotte I do think you may be under-calling it. I think we're going to see at least 7C for the next week, and probably higher, so that we may not be that far off 5C by close of play on 18th. That may seem outlandishly high, and I may in turn be over-calling it, but this is going to be a sharply upward trend from here.

So it will come down to the final 1/3rd of the month. I'll stick with my winter LRF: that spring is now kicking in and with the sun getting warmer in the sky I think we may end up with a surprisingly mild month.

Hiya, 4.7 is the outturn to the 18th if temps are 7 throughout - maxima support this but minima are critical. I just can't see the lack of diurnal range necessary for anything over 7 certainly.

7 all the way to the end of the month would just support 5.5, so no cold spells would get it there.

3.5 MAY be optimistic but I think 4-5 is certainly realistic. I'd say 0.5 either side of average a good bet, I.E an average February. A cold blast or some clear anticyclonic nights might shift this, as would a Bartlett/Southerly interlude.

[West is Best]

Hiya, 4.7 is the outturn to the 18th if temps are 7 throughout - maxima support this but minima are critical. I just can't see the lack of diurnal range necessary for anything over 7 certainly.

Hi - I actually think the CET is going to be above 7C through to 18th. Minima are going to average only a notch or two below that, and maxima will regularly be in the 8C to 12C range in the CET zone, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the CET pulling at around 8C for the next week.

[Snowly does it]

Hi - I actually think the CET is going to be above 7C through to 18th. Minima are going to average only a notch or two below that, and maxima will regularly be in the 8C to 12C range in the CET zone, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the CET pulling at around 8C for the next week.

We'll have to agree to disagree Richard. 12 will be rare this week I think and certainly not representative of the CET zone as a whole, Some cooler nights as well as the milder ones too, and one or two days where maxima will just about average 7 without minima taken into account.