February CET

[West is Best]

We'll have to agree to disagree Richard. 12 will be rare this week I think and certainly not representative of the CET zone as a whole, Some cooler nights as well as the milder ones too, and one or two days where maxima will just about average 7 without minima taken into account.

Hiya - no I did say between 8C and 12C in the CET zone, so the average max may well not be far off 10C I reckon.

Anyway, slight disagreements make it fun - so we will see as you say!

Off to the farm ...

[Snowly does it]

Hiya - no I did say between 8C and 12C in the CET zone, so the average max may well not be far off 10C I reckon.

Anyway, slight disagreements make it fun - so we will see as you say!

Off to the farm ...

Say hi to the cows from me.

Yes, slight disagreements do a winter make.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Good discussion on this thread. I think the late cold spell will be good enough to see us below 4c...just. Next week on last two runs looks les mild and more average so upward movement may not get us that high making the last 8 days job a little easier. Cold start to March looks on too

BFTP

[North-Easterly Blast]

The CET zone is from around London-Bristol-Leeds-Preston, so today maxes have reached 10*C quite widely in the south and 8*C in the north. On many days this week maxes are expected to range from 8-10*C on most days in the CET zone. Minima are expected to be around 5*C for most areas on most nights. With the CET likely to go up from 2.85*C to 3.2 today as of Philip Eden's site, I would envisage a first half of Feb turnout of about 4*C to the 14th, and possibly reaching 4.5 by Friday. So it all hinges on what happens during the last ten days or so. If we do get a decent cold spell, then a below average month is still very much possible, but so is yet another above average month as most models are not offering a great deal of hope on anything special in terms of cold even in FI.

[Peter Henderson]

I reckon it will be somewhere about 5 or slightly above. Next week looks fairly mild although not exceptionly so (except Thurs) and there seems to be a hint that colder weather will return at the end of the month. If it does then I'll go for around 4.8. If it doesn't materialize then maybe 5.2 might be more realistic. (if I'm right I'll do the lottery that week !)

[West is Best]

No update from Philip, but the NW tracker has risen to 3.38C. I make that a rise of over 0.4C in 24 hours. It's certainly going to be interesting to see where this heads. The reason that I've been looking to the figure on the 19th is that we have a very clearcut first 1/3rd and a clearcut mild second third up to 19th. So the month will now be decided by the final third. I still think we're in for a very steep rise this week ...

[Weather-history]

As a guide, the CET up to the 9th of February 1998 was 4.9C, that ended up as 7.3C

Up to the 10th, it was 2.9C according to Philip's data.

So those who went for 7+ are going to need an even more remarkable mild spell than what happened in 1998.

[West is Best]

So those who went for 7+ are going to need an even more remarkable mild spell than what happened in 1998.

It's exceptionally unlikely Kevin: so unlikely that I'd rate it at 1%. Which isn't the same as impossible!

Even 6's is pushing it, but by no means so unlikely. It really does all depend on the final 1/3rd doesn't it? We could end up close to average, or 2.5C above.

[West is Best]

Philip has just updated. 3.3C to the 11th so a rise of 0.4C yesterday.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens!

[johnholmes]

my average for February shows the variations in this part of the world.

1st 5 days mean =5.8C

mean after 12 days=3.9C

mean through the days which had an air frost, 7 on the trot=1.9C

so by most standards a week of pretty cold weather based on the average for each day. Granted the max temps at the start were hardly 'cold',

11.3, 9.6, 7.1, 5.7, 6.1, 2.3, 2.9,

John

[stormchaser1]

After the first 12 days my average here in the North East is 4.82c

nigel

[johnholmes]

After the first 12 days my average here in the North East is 4.82c

nigel

to how many decimals do you measure your temp to, 1 or 2 decimal places mate?

Whatever it is the average has to be the same decimal place.

[stormchaser1]

Evening John

Sorry im not with you on that one ??

so far my average temps in total are 57.95c for the first 12 days which if i divide these two figures , gives me 4.82c , thats how ive been told to work it out ,

Nigel

[Stratos Ferric]

Evening John

Sorry im not with you on that one ??

so far my average temps in total are 57.95c for the first 12 days which if i divide these two figures , gives me 4.82c , thats how ive been told to work it out ,

Nigel

There is a convention across all measurement that you cannot strictly report an average (or any analysis of the data) to more apparent precision than you measure it to. If you measure your tremperature to 1d.p. then you should report your average to the same degree of accuracy. Look at the following two data sets: suppose that what you recorded is in the first column, but the actual values are in the second column.

5.1 =5.13

5.0 =5.04

5.2 =5.22

4.9 =4.94

4.4 =4.43

4.92 =4.952

The correct reporting of the average would be 4.9 - the fact that we can apparently calculate to two dps does not make the calculation an accurate one. The additional point here is that in retaining the confidence in the data this also means that we are - strictly speaking - only approximating (though it is not the maths that is approximating, just our ability to measure accurately); our 4.9 is actually +/- 0.05, which once rounded means 0.1. Our average therefore might fall anywhere in the range 4.8-5.0, and the values on the right show that, on this occasion, that is precisely the case.

I had an amusing conversation with SM amongst others last year over whether or not the CET was cooling; I think we'd had three years during which, cumulatively, it had fallen by about 0.1C. On the basis of the above you will note that such margins are well within the overall margin of error; CET might still have been warming, or, come to that, cooling more than reported. By comparison the year just gone has moved by a margin far bigger than the possible error.

Anyway, 6C for the month is firmly back in prospect.

Edited February 13, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[stormchaser1]

There is a convention across all measurement that you cannot strictly report an average (or any analysis of the data) to more apparent precision than you measure it to. If you measure your tremperature to 1d.p. then you should report your average to the same degree of accuracy. Look at the following two data sets: suppose that what you recorded is in the first column, but the actual values are in the second column.

5.1 =5.13

5.0 =5.04

5.2 =5.22

4.9 =4.94

4.4 =4.43

4.92 =4.952

The correct reporting of the average would be 4.9 - the fact that we can apparently calculate to two dps does not make the calculation an accurate one. The additional point here is that in retaining the confidence in the data this also means that we are - strictly speaking - only approximating (though it is not the maths that is approximating, just our ability to measure accurately); our 4.9 is actually +/- 0.05, which once rounded means 0.1. Our average therefore might fall anywhere in the range 4.8-5.0, and the values on the right show that, on this occasion, that is precisely the case.

I had an amusing conversation with SM amongst others last year over whether or not the CET was cooling; I think we'd had three years during which, cumulatively, it had fallen by about 0.1C. On the basis of the above you will note that such margins are well within the overall margin of error; CET might still have been warming, or, come to that, cooling more than reported. By comparison the year just gone has moved by a margin far bigger than the possible error.

Anyway, 6C for the month is firmly back in prospect.

morning SF

Thanks for that , i understand now , sorry i should have realized ,

many thanks

nigel

[The PIT]

my average for February shows the variations in this part of the world.

1st 5 days mean =5.8C

mean after 12 days=3.9C

mean through the days which had an air frost, 7 on the trot=1.9C

so by most standards a week of pretty cold weather based on the average for each day. Granted the max temps at the start were hardly 'cold',

11.3, 9.6, 7.1, 5.7, 6.1, 2.3, 2.9,

John

Pretty Similar to mine John.

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 3.72°C

(difference from average February CET is -0.48°C)

Climate UK is currently CET: (Feb 1-12): 3.7°C (-0.3 degC) courtesy of Philip Eden.

Regards

IJ

Edited February 13, 2007 by Joneseye

[Roger J Smith]

Looks as though it should drift up to around 5 C by Friday, then perhaps remain there for a few days, and if the 00z GFS is right, it could plunge dramatically towards 4 C by the 26th with the end point being in the mid to high 3s. But if that cold spell doesn't materialize it should stay between 4.5 and 5.5, I would think, as there is bound to be at least some cooling without that major easterly. Guesses in the 3s or even high 2s are not out of the running yet.

[West is Best]

Another 0.4C rise in the last 24 hours. If it carries on like this we're looking at 6C with a week of the month left. Records not quite out of the reckoning yet.

[Weather-history]

Another 0.4C rise in the last 24 hours. If it carries on like this we're looking at 6C with a week of the month left. Records not quite out of the reckoning yet.

I would say that the chances of the mildest February on record are virtually nil now. It would need the second half of February to be warmer than the second half of March 2005 was and that was exceptionally mild itself.

Even if it was 6C by the 21st, it would need the last week to average 14C daily as a mean to beat February 1779.

Edited February 13, 2007 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Going to be a very mild 7 days coming up, could well see the CET rise towards 6C by the 21st, what would that take in terms of the daily CET though?

[Weather-history]

Going to be a very mild 7 days coming up, could well see the CET rise towards 6C by the 21st, what would that take in terms of the daily CET though?

A daily CET mean of 9.1

[kold weather]

It'll be tight then but I think do-able looking at this weekend and the quite impressive 850hpa temps that are coming up from the south, might even get upto 10C for the daiy average in the next 7 days but that may be a little too high.

[West is Best]

I would say that the chances of the mildest February on record are virtually nil now. It would need the second half of February to be warmer than the second half of March 2005 was and that was exceptionally mild itself.

No I agree Kevin. That wasn't the record I had in mind when I posted though. It was the winter record. 6.8C still looks a mighty long way off, but nothing like as far off as it did 4 or 5 days ago ...

[Stratos Ferric]

Guesses in the 3s or even high 2s are not out of the running yet.

...so long as we're judging the outcome based on Iceland Roger! There's no way it's going to finish up below 3, and probably below 4. 5+ by the end of the weekend is almost certain; to get down to 2.5 from there would require the remained of the month to net sub zero: no way josé!

I'd say 5.5-6 is the window now; 4.8-5.5 if we get any kind of cool from the east.

I would say that the chances of the mildest February on record are virtually nil now. It would need the second half of February to be warmer than the second half of March 2005 was and that was exceptionally mild itself.

Even if it was 6C by the 21st, it would need the last week to average 14C daily as a mean to beat February 1779.

I agree, February will finish mild, but not exceptionally so. However, 5.8 or higher will mean yet another "top 50" month, the sixth in succession, and the eighth in nine; a quite unprecedented and extraordinary run of mildness. Logic says it must end soon, but the longer it goes on the less likely a break may become.