February CET

[Nick F]

Looks like it'll end up a fairly average month with mixture of cool to ocassionaly mild weather with the occasional cold shot from the North dragging the temps down.

4.7C

[Don]

I'm going to go for a CET of 4.4C, which might surprise some people, but I think that the first half will be wet and mixed, with above average temperature but some cool incursions especially in the north and possible frontal snow events like the one the Scottish Lowlands had around 18 January. The second half should have a week or so of cold north-easterlies, but a mild end.

Another February 2005 possibly then with a milder end?

Sounds perfectly feasible to me and would certainly follow the recent February trend.

[summer blizzard]

Stephen

I think it is easier for a winter month to be much more below normal than it is to be much above, if you see what I'm saying

Take January 1916, it was 4C above normal compared to the 30 year average at the time.

Take January 1963, which was -2.1 and that was 5.5C below the 30 year average at the time.

The opposite is true for summer, its harder for a summer month to be much below normal than it is to be much above.

Thats true, March is another good example, the record high CET value is less than 3C above average while the record cold CET is around 5C below average.

[J10]

5,5c

[Glacier Point]

A possible record mild winter and possible breakdown of the polar vortex should make the range of spread huge.

The context is:

1) mild trend established - add 2 to pretty much all forecasts;

2) polar vortex starting to look unstable and fragmented;

3) weak and declining El Nino;

4) westerly QBO surely on borrowed time by now,

all of which doesn't help us much but to suggest perhaps something a little less record breaking is the order.

Both El Nino and QBO reanalysis suggests height rises towards Greenland and add in the lowering of heights in the Atlantic, a progressive rise of heights to the north will be a feature as we progress through February. But will this be of use to us ?

The first half of the month looks like being a W-SW flow and potentially the remainder from less warm vectors. All in all, within range of average which I think will be a shock to the system after this excessive warmth - my punt 5.2C

[senior ridge]

Expecting some ridging from the NW giving transient northerlies. Slightly more southerly jet.

Please snow on 13th

My guess is 4.5c

[West is Best]

Just to mention that with 7.1C now just officially confirmed for January, it means that anything over 6.7C in February would make this the warmest winter since records began.

But before that happens there's an awful long way to go! It may come to nothing. Even with AGW you do need the right synoptics to break a record.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Even with AGW you do need the right synoptics to break a record.

West

I thought that was a given if we are warming at record pace!!! Enough on this subject

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

Well according to the latest GFS run the period 1-5th of February will have an average temperature of 4.8c. 0.6c above the 71-000 average and 1.0c above the 61-90 average.

Or looking much further ahead the period 1st-10th comes out with a CET off 2.8c. 1.0c below the 61-90 average and 1.4c below the 71-000 average.

[West is Best]

West

I thought that was a given if we are warming at record pace!!!

Did you actually stop and think before posting that? Unless you are suggesting that no northerly or easterly will ever again occur then of course you also need the right synoptics to produce a record. Although one day it may happen, we are not yet at the stage where we can break a warm record off a northerly. Having said that, Philip Eden has just made a note of how in a westerly dominated month that we have just had, it was unusual to see such a mild month for such a relatively high proportion of northerly flow.

On the more general point about how AGW affects synoptics, it clearly does (SST's for instance have a definable impact) but this doesn't make it absolute. As I wrote above, a 2C increase in global temperatures isn't going to mean you will never see a northerly. Actually, why am I even wasting my time having to write this?!

OP - you are wildly out with those temperature estimations I suggest. The GFS surface temps have been at least 2C, and possibly 4C or 5C shy of the actual outcome over the past two weeks. 1 of your 5 days has already come in at around 9.2C (last night's minima count into this month's tally). Something of a cool down next week, but I really cannot see those temps you suggest.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Having said that, Philip Eden has just made a note of how in a westerly dominated month that we have just had, it was unusual to see such a mild month for such a relatively high proportion of northerly flow.

West

Run that one by me again???????? Westerly month, high proportion of northerly flow????? 'Westerlies' are actually SW'ly winds for the UK.

BFTP

[swfc]

My cet is, 7.1.

[West is Best]

Run that one by me again???????? Westerly month, high proportion of northerly flow????? 'Westerlies' are actually SW'ly winds for the UK.

BFTP

Sure Fred.

January was dominated by westerlies (Met Office) or westerlies/south-westerlies (Philip Eden). (A westerly is not the same as a south-westerly by the way, they differ on the compass by 45 degrees). You can see the anomaly flow very clearly here: http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/0701.htm

Philip Eden adds, however, "Perhaps surprisingly for such a mild month, there was a sizeable northerly component to the anomalous flow" http://www.climate-uk.com/

Source for Met O quote on the westerly-dominated month:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6318231.stm

Edited February 2, 2007 by West is Best

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sure Fred.

January was dominated by westerlies (Met Office) or westerlies/south-westerlies (Philip Eden). (A westerly is not the same as a south-westerly by the way, they differ on the compass by 45 degrees). You can see the anomaly flow very clearly here: http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/0701.htm

Philip Eden adds, however, "Perhaps surprisingly for such a mild month, there was a sizeable northerly component to the anomalous flow" http://www.climate-uk.com/

Source for Met O quote on the westerly-dominated month:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6318231.stm

Richard

Sorry Richard it read funny that's all and should've cleared the head and read again and again if necessary. Totally agree with the westerly domination but what I'm saying is that under a westerly regime our winds will predominantly be SW'ly. Re Philip's comment it surprises me because with 21 days of tropical maritime weather the mildness of the month is not really that surprising.

BFTP

[The PIT]

Richard

Sorry Richard it read funny that's all and should've cleared the head and read again and again if necessary. Totally agree with the westerly domination but what I'm saying is that under a westerly regime our winds will predominantly be SW'ly. Re Philip's comment it surprises me because with 21 days of tropical maritime weather the mildness of the month is not really that surprising.

BFTP

I did think it was a bit funny that comment as well. Unsurprisingly the cold weather occured when the Northlies turned up until the mild air came round over the top.

[Optimus Prime]

Well with a fairly cold morning the temperature CET has be knocked down a degree from 5 hours ago.

Now stands at 7.3c

[West is Best]

Well with a fairly cold morning the temperature CET has be knocked down a degree from 5 hours ago.

Now stands at 7.3c

Morning OP.

Do you still think it'll be 4.8C by Monday night?

[Optimus Prime]

Do you still think it'll be 4.8C by Monday night?

Well it's now 6.6c so 4.8c is still possiuble with a few severe frosts in the meantime.

Probably closer to 5.2c.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

A nice drop on the Net-Wx CET since yesterday - 5.59oC

In fact, quite a substantial drop considering recent months.

[West is Best]

A nice drop on the Net-Wx CET since yesterday - 5.59oC

In fact, quite a substantial drop considering recent months.

Yes OP may well be right with his suggestion of 4.8C by the 5th.

However, the figure can swing wildly early on in the month considering how small the sample size of data is. Both December and January had cold snaps of some duration and intensity. So the real proof of the pudding will only come later in the month.

[Snowly does it]

Early month and all but an interesting little tidbit - at 1.3 above average, the Net-Wx is still at its lowest reading since the anticyclonic spell in early November. What a winter!

[West is Best]

Early month and all but an interesting little tidbit - at 1.3 above average, the Net-Wx is still at its lowest reading since the anticyclonic spell in early November. What a winter!

SM - that's a fairly naughty piece of statistical work! Both the spell in December and January were far colder than this one in its early stages. You're playing a little with the quirk of the fact that it's only the 4th of the month and happens to have coincided with the third cold spell of the winter! But I suspect you're being playful rather than serious lol?

[paul tall]

OK I know what GW is, but what is AGW.

[The PIT]

Surprised by that as it's been on the warm side here recently here. So I guess the area has been having sharper frosts or part of it has been stuck in fog. Just for interest our average is 7.85C at the moment. Nearly 4 degrees above normal.

[johnholmes]

OK I know what GW is, but what is AGW.

Anthropogenic Global Warming

you and me!