February CET

[Optimus Prime]

Well the current Netweather tracker is 3.2c (-1.0c) and metcheck have it at 3.0c (-1.2c) I suspect there will be a fall tonight but only marginally so (around -0.2c) due to cloud moving in later rising the temperature somewhat.

Tomorrow looks interesting for low maxima. Could get some maxima close to freezing all day. GFS has some parts of the mildlands below -1.0c. So by the end of tomorrow the CET should be 2.8c on the Metcheck one and 3.0c on net-weather.

Tomorrow night looks extremely interesting with widespread lows of -4c and some areas likely to drop below -10c.

On this basis without using any calculas by Saturday Metcheck should be at 2.2c (2.0c below average) and netweather 2.5c (-1.7c)

[Stratos Ferric]

I agree that January was warmer than it should have been; I base my assertion on the northerly spell from 21st-25th January, which although it did produce snow in places, it was outstandingly warm for a northerly- even taking into account the modification around the periphery of the Atlantic high. Temperatures here in the North East were only about a degree lower than they were during the similar, but half-hearted, northerly incursion of 17-19 November 1999- note November, not January!

The mild northerly will have resulted in less of a downward correction to the CET.

At the moment I still like the look of my 4.4C CET prediction; teleconnections do favour the cold north-easterly after midmonth that I envisaged, though I think the mild spells will be just enough to outweigh the cold ones, relative to the 71-00 average.

It's certainly looking like a closer to average month at the moment, at the very least. If we get a cold back end á la BFTP then sub 4 is a definite possibility, but cool zonal still looks likely: 4-5 is a good band to be in at present.

[The PIT]

Well our average is now down to 5.8C I think it's catching CET up but still a huge differance.

[Snowyowl9]

So by the end of tomorrow the CET should be 2.8c on the Metcheck one.

That`s what I went for it would be amazing if it came off by the end of Feb.

The way the charts keep backtracking lately.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, the CET so far is now below average - so you would think that now a below average month is not out of the question. I would love that to happen, but the models look rather dissapointing in the long term with hints of a Bartlett High on ECM 240 and on some of the GFS ensembles at 288hrs plus. Although it is looking less cold into next week, if we could manage another cold spell later in the month then a below average month would likely happen. Philip's CET sould drop to about 3.5 after today, and with the next three days looking cold then it should even get nearer to 3.0-3.2 by Saturday 10th, looking like one of the best shots we have had for a below average month for some time.

Last year's February just about managed to be below average, I would just love to see a CET below last year's 3.7 which would make it a proper below average month (-0.5 or more) and the coldest since 1996, but with the longer range models it doesen't look inspiring after this week.

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has updated for today to 3.5, so a lttle under 0.4 above the netwx tracker. I expect that will fall be a similar margain if tonight gets as low as predicted so we MAY be under 3 by the 8th... Certainly the Netwx should be under 3 by the morning, which is an impressive drop from the warm first 2 days of the month.

This could be our best chance of a cold or cool month all year, all depends on whether blocking and southerly jets or the Atlantic win the eventual victory....

[North-Easterly Blast]

You have to remember that the lower the CET gets, the less it will fall after each cold day. It has fallen from 4.2 on the 6th to 3.5 on the 7th. We will not get down to under 3 by tomorrow, but possibly to around 3.2 or 3.1 at a push, but with a possible cold night on 8th / 9th we will possibly get to just under 3 by the 9th I would say.

[Stratos Ferric]

You have to remember that the lower the CET gets, the less it will fall after each cold day. It has fallen from 4.2 on the 6th to 3.5 on the 7th. We will not get down to under 3 by tomorrow, but possibly to around 3.2 or 3.1 at a push, but with a possible cold night on 8th / 9th we will possibly get to just under 3 by the 9th I would say.

The odds are very much that tonight / tomorrow will mark the low point for the month. The models can't decide what to do longer term, and the anguished howlers out there would do well to remember that your models can go up as well as down. I'm not seeing January style Bartlett, but equally I'm not expecting significant sustained cold in the style of the last few days. What should be noted, and we've made the point a few times this winter, is the impact genuinely cold nights have on the CET. Daytime maxes have not been particularly low this week; what's dragged CET down has been a run of minima that I suspect we haven't seen for a long while. it will be the absence of low minima in the next week or so, if it comes to that, that will allow CET to rebound.

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 2.91°C

(difference from average February CET is -1.29°C)

CET: (Feb 1- 7): 3.5°C (-0.5 degC) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

[Snowly does it]

Phillip Eden now has the period 1-8 Feb at exactly 3 degrees, a degree below the expected outturn for the period.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

[West is Best]

Phillip Eden now has the period 1-8 Feb at exactly 3 degrees, a degree below the expected outturn for the period.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Given that we had a substantial cold spell in December, and another one in January, I do think a 6's month is still quite possible. In fact anything is possible. Afterall we're only just about 1/4 through the month. However, to get a mild outturn from here would pretty much require no more cold spells. Aside from the synoptics anything is possible from here. I don't want to be shot down in flames for this, but in some ways to get through the cold spell at around 3C is not a bad outcome for those still predicting a mild month. It's in large part thanks to the first 2 days, but also that the daytime maxima just about recovered enough to lift the CET.

From here we will see.

Double or quits the steak Charlotte that we beat 5.5C for the month?

[shuggee]

CET: [Feb 1- 8]: 3.0°C (-1.0 degC)

From http://www.climate-uk.com

Hardly a surprise - but nevertheless nice to see

[Optimus Prime]

The Netweather temperature tracker has dropped again;

The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 2.64°C

(difference from average February CET is -1.56°C)

Metcheck has it at 2.4c.

I suspect philips site will have it around 2.7c by tomorrow or whenever he updates it next.

I would have thought the metoffice is at 2.6c.

I think anything below 3.0c is considered a severe winter month.

[shuggee]

I think anything below 3.0c is considered a severe winter month.

That's my recollection too OP. So it just goes to show how bad it really has to get, for a whole calendar month, to achieve that level of CET.

[Don]

Well I'm quite happy ATM with my February CET prediction of 4C, although milder weather will return next week, I think a colder 3rd and pssibly 4th week will help balance out the CET.

[kold weather]

Is it really 3C required for a severe month, I recall a CET of 1.5C or below on Trevor Harley's site?

The last one was Feb 91, but that was only just there!

Very severe month is below 0C I believe.

Feb isd going to be a horror to predict past the 14th, problem is as Richard said it can go nearly anyway and it all depends on exactly where the jet splits, honestly anything from a deep deep bartlett or a deep deep easterly is possible!

Edited February 9, 2007 by kold weather

[VillagePlank]

The odds are very much that tonight / tomorrow will mark the low point for the month.

Interesting. I'm surpirsed that someone as statistically alert as you would let that one slip. Unless of course you believe that the last week in February is set in stone as mild?

[Optimus Prime]

The period 10th-15th looks pretty mild according to the latest GFS run. It comes out at 5.8c (+1.6c)

The CET should rise upto 3.6c by the 15th. But with so much uncertainty whether it turns much colder again I would take this figure with much speculation (personally I think it'll be lower then this)

[kold weather]

EVen if its zonal upto the 19th we are still likely to come out with a CET rather close to average and with a possiblity of a cold snap/spell hinted at by the models (only hints) plus the met-office further update also suggesting a possiblity of this then its all to play for still and I can see a real shot at a below average month IF this warm-up isn't too strong.

[summer blizzard]

A CET of 1.2C would be severe, 3C below average.

[Snowly does it]

[quote name='West is Best' date='8 Feb 2007, 11:46 PM' post='919587'

From here we will see.

Double or quits the steak Charlotte that we beat 5.5C for the month?

[Polar Continental]

The mean in Burton is falling rapidly now, currently riding at 0.2c, we have had some bitterly cold nights now since last Friday, last night down to -8.1c.

Paul

sorry, made an error in my calculations with the above mean temperature, corrected mean is now 1.3c

Paul

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has updated and the CET on Manley now stands at a chilly 2.7, good call OP!

[Stratos Ferric]

The Netweather temperature tracker has dropped again;

The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 2.64°C

(difference from average February CET is -1.56°C)

Metcheck has it at 2.4c.

I suspect philips site will have it around 2.7c by tomorrow or whenever he updates it next.

I would have thought the metoffice is at 2.6c.

I think anything below 3.0c is considered a severe winter month.

I'm not sure I've ever seen severe defined. There are standard definitions for hot / very warm / warm -- cool / cold / very cold. They'll be on the UKMO site somewhere, unless John H (or anyone else) knows them off the top of his (their) head.

EVen if its zonal upto the 19th we are still likely to come out with a CET rather close to average and with a possiblity of a cold snap/spell hinted at by the models (only hints) plus the met-office further update also suggesting a possiblity of this then its all to play for still and I can see a real shot at a below average month IF this warm-up isn't too strong.

I'll do the first projection tomorrow; it will hinge on how mild the nghts are I think. Without pre-empting myself (thought the models are bouncing around a lot anyway) I'd still reckon 4.5-5.5 is the lowest we'll end up with, unless we get a dramatic BFTP type event from the 17th.

[Snowly does it]

This means the last 7 days have had a return of about 1.0 degrees which is a pleasant way to kick off February - a genuinely severe spell.

This could be a very interesting month and without predicting the last 2/3s, we probably won't get many better chances this year to get a below average month with the way things have gone.

Some required figures to reach certain outcomes (based on Manley at 2.7 to today)

8 - 10.52

7 - 9.04

6 - 7.57

5 - 6.09

4 - 4.62

3 - 3.14

2 - 1.25

1 - minus 0.02

The magical zero - minus 1.28

So, average February conditions would give us between 3 and 4

January's very mild return for the remainder would give us 5.7 or so

Between 4 and 5 looks a fairly solid bet as of now, between 3 and 4 quite possible if we get another decent cold spell.

For the record, an average february would now require the remainder to be 4.92